Kojima Says His Upcoming Game OD May Not "Work Out"

Legendary writer-director Hideo Kojima says his upcoming horror project OD is highly experimental—aiming to "change the service model from the ground up"—and he acknowledged he doesn't know if the concept will "work out," signaling elevated technical and commercial execution risk. The title, announced at The Game Awards 2023 and featuring Hunter Schafer, Sophia Lillis and the late Udo Kier (whose recorded contribution is unclear), was delayed for filming to 2026 by the SAG-AFTRA strike but remains in active development in partnership with Xbox despite Microsoft’s recent studio cuts. Kojima is simultaneously developing a PlayStation project (Physint) and expanding the Death Stranding IP into film and animation with A24 and Disney, indicating diversified IP monetization plans even as OD's outcome remains uncertain.

Analysis

Hideo Kojima described OD as a highly experimental horror title that “may not work out,” explicitly saying the team is attempting to “change the service model from the ground up,” which elevates technical and commercial execution risk relative to his past projects (Metal Gear Solid, Death Stranding). The project was announced at The Game Awards 2023 and the recent teaser (“Knock” trailer) offered hints but no clarity on mechanics or monetization, increasing uncertainty for investors seeking near-term signals.

Production has concrete schedule risk: the SAG-AFTRA strike delayed actor filming to 2026 and the death of actor Udo Kier leaves the extent of usable recorded material unclear, which could affect content scope and timelines. OD is in partnership with Xbox and remains in development despite Microsoft’s broader studio cuts and cancellations, creating a potential tension between corporate cost discipline and franchise investment.

Kojima’s simultaneous work with PlayStation on Physint and Death Stranding adaptations with A24 and Disney indicate diversified IP monetization that lowers single-title dependency, but OD’s experimental service-model pivot means outcomes are binary. Sentiment outputs mark mixed/uncertain market impact with marginally negative read for MSFT, mildly positive for SONY and neutral for DIS, so milestone confirmations and explicit funding or exclusivity commitments are the primary near-term indicators to watch.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For Microsoft exposure: maintain a cautious stance on Xbox-content leverage and avoid increasing positions based on OD until Microsoft issues explicit funding/milestone confirmations or development milestones are publicly met
• For Sony exposure: consider modestly constructive positioning on SONY given Kojima’s PlayStation project (Physint) but monitor for exclusivity and commercial terms before allocating material capital
• For Disney exposure: treat the Death Stranding animation partnership as a neutral-to-positive diversification of IP monetization and monitor production announcements and licensing terms for revenue visibility
• Portfolio-level: limit position sizing or hedge content-risk exposure until concrete milestones (gameplay reveal, production completion, release window) are confirmed, and reassess if the studio provides clarity on OD’s service model and Microsoft’s commitment