MELI vs. JD: Which International E-Commerce Stock Has More Upside?

MercadoLibre (MELI) is positioned to deliver stronger international e-commerce upside in 2025 compared to JD.com (JD), driven by robust buyer growth, logistics strength, and favorable macro trends in Latin America. MELI's stock has surged 53.1% YTD, outperforming JD's 6.5% decline, reflecting investor confidence in MELI's growth potential, as evidenced by upward earnings revisions; conversely, JD faces rising costs and investments in new segments impacting profitability, resulting in downward earnings revisions and cautious market sentiment.

Analysis

MercadoLibre (MELI) demonstrates superior positioning for international e-commerce upside in 2025 compared to JD.com (JD), primarily driven by strong performance in Latin America. MELI's unique active buyers grew 25% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, contributing to significant Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth in key markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. The company's supermarket category surged 65% year-over-year in Q1, and its logistics network is a key differentiator, with fulfillment penetration in Brazil exceeding 60% in March, leading to lower per-order costs. Year-to-date, MELI's stock has rallied 53.1%, supported by strong earnings reports and upward revisions to its 2025 earnings consensus estimate, which has risen 5.6% in the past 30 days, projecting a 29.27% year-over-year increase. In contrast, JD.com, while a dominant force in Chinese e-commerce with a 15% year-over-year rise in general merchandise revenues in Q1 2025, faces challenges. Its new businesses segment reported an operating loss of RMB 1.3 billion due to investments in initiatives like food delivery, and JD Logistics posted soft operating income. JD's stock has fallen 6.5% year-to-date, and its 2025 earnings consensus estimate has been revised downward by 16.9% over the past 30 days, indicating an anticipated 10.56% year-over-year decline. MELI trades at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 4.37X, significantly above JD's 0.28X, reflecting stronger investor confidence in MELI's growth prospects despite the premium. The Zacks Rank further differentiates the two, with MELI at #3 (Hold) and JD at #4 (Sell).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider MercadoLibre as a more compelling international e-commerce investment for 2025, given its robust buyer growth, strong earnings momentum with a 29.27% projected YoY EPS increase, and favorable operational trends in Latin America.
• Exercise caution with JD.com, as ongoing investments in new, currently unprofitable ventures are impacting its profitability, evidenced by a 16.9% downward revision in its 2025 earnings estimates and a projected 10.56% YoY earnings decline.
• Evaluate the significant valuation disparity, with MELI's forward P/S of 4.37X versus JD's 0.28X, understanding that MELI's premium reflects higher growth expectations and stronger current performance, while JD's lower multiple indicates market skepticism regarding its near-term outlook and the impact of China's economic conditions.