US added 64K jobs in November, delayed report shows

The Labor Department's delayed November jobs report showed the U.S. added 64,000 payrolls (above a 50,000 estimate) and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%—the highest since September 2021—after the 43‑day government shutdown forced a combined release that also recorded a 105,000 job decline in October (private +52,000; government -157,000) and downward revisions to August and September that trimmed prior gains by 33,000. Private payrolls were up 69,000 in November while government payrolls fell 5,000; sector moves included healthcare +46,300, construction +28,000, manufacturing -5,000 and transportation & warehousing -17,700; labor-force participation held at 62.5%, long-term unemployed totaled 1.9 million and those working part-time for economic reasons rose to 5.5 million. Economists and market participants warned the data are distorted by shutdown-related payroll effects—comments echoed by Fed officials—so the report is expected to carry limited weight for policy, and markets price a roughly 75.6% probability the Fed will keep rates at 3.50–3.75% in February.

Analysis

The delayed Labor Department report showed U.S. payrolls increased by 64,000 in November versus an LSEG economist median of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% (above the 4.4% forecast) — the highest reading since September 2021. The publication combined a revised October print that registered a 105,000 decline (private +52,000; government -157,000) and downward revisions to August and September that trimmed prior reported gains by 33,000, with the 43-day government shutdown cited as a primary source of distortion.

Industry detail was mixed: private payrolls rose 69,000 (above a 45,000 LSEG estimate) and government payrolls fell 5,000; healthcare added 46,300 jobs (ambulatory +24,000; hospitals +11,400; nursing +10,900), construction added 28,000 (nonresidential specialty trade +18,700), manufacturing lost 5,000, and transportation & warehousing shed 17,700. Labor force participation held at 62.5%, long-term unemployed remained at 1.9 million (24.3% of unemployed), and part-time workers for economic reasons rose to 5.5 million (up 909,000 since September).

Market and policy reaction was muted because officials and market participants flagged shutdown-related distortions; Fed commentary and Goldman Sachs both said the report should carry limited weight. The CME FedWatch tool implied a 75.6% probability that the fed funds rate will remain at 3.50%–3.75% in February, and the article notes the Fed’s dot plot projects only one cut in 2026, leaving near-term policy uncertainty tied to cleaner December/January employment prints.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Delay material repositioning of duration or rate-sensitive portfolios until December/January employment data reduces shutdown distortions, maintain current hedges in the interim
• Favor selective exposure to sectors showing resilient hiring — notably healthcare and nonresidential construction services — while avoiding broad cyclicals exposed to transportation and manufacturing weakness
• Monitor government payroll and part-time-for-economic-reasons trends as early indicators of labor-market deterioration and use protective equity hedges if those series continue to worsen
• Treat the report as noisy for Fed policy; avoid large directional bets on a near-term Fed cut and keep positioning consistent with the current 3.50%–3.75% rate expectation