Price Prediction: Qualcomm Stock Will Trade at This Price in 2028

Qualcomm shares jumped 27.2% in a week to $248.82, up 46.41% year to date, as the market begins to price in an AI/data center re-rating. The article cites Q2 FY26 handset revenue down 13% year over year to $6.024B and Q3 guidance of $9.2B-$10B revenue and $2.10-$2.30 EPS, but highlights 173% quarterly earnings growth, a $20B buyback, and a hyperscaler custom silicon opportunity later this year. The author’s base case for 2028 is $340.92, with $400 requiring a 60.8% gain and a forward P/E expansion to about 28x.

Analysis

Qualcomm is transitioning from a handset-duration story to a capital-intensity story, and that is the key second-order setup: if investors begin to underwrite it as an AI infrastructure supplier, the multiple can expand faster than fundamentals alone would justify. The near-term beneficiary is not just QCOM shareholders; it is the broader semiconductor-capex ecosystem that gets a new non-TSMC, non-NVDA demand vector, while Apple faces a modest but real strategic overhang if modem dependence declines and its bargaining leverage with suppliers erodes.

The market is likely underestimating how buybacks and a shrinking float can amplify any credibility shift in the data center narrative. If management delivers even a partial validation on the hyperscaler silicon ramp at the upcoming investor event, the stock can gap into a re-rating phase before the underlying revenue contribution is material, because the first move will be multiple-driven rather than EPS-driven. That dynamic makes the next 4-8 weeks more important than the next 4-8 quarters.

The main risk is that this becomes another “promise-to-platform” semiconductor rerate that stalls when investors demand evidence of recurring design wins and gross margin durability. Qualcomm’s history as a cyclical handset proxy means any slip in execution, especially around commercialization timing, can quickly compress the multiple back toward low-teens even if earnings hold up. The consensus error is not about whether AI helps Qualcomm; it is about how quickly the market can reclassify the business before data center revenue is visible enough to anchor the new valuation regime.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long QCOM into the June 24 investor day with a 4-8 week horizon; target a re-rating toward 20-22x forward EPS if the data center roadmap is specific, with downside defined by a quick fade back toward prior range if no customer detail emerges.
• Buy QCOM call spreads 3-6 months out to express upside from narrative reclassification while limiting risk to the premium paid; structure for a move toward the low-300s rather than paying for the full $400 upside.
• Pair trade: long QCOM / short AAPL over 3-12 months to express modem-disintermediation and bargaining-power erosion at Apple; the trade works if QCOM gains platform credibility while AAPL absorbs a slowly worsening supplier leverage picture.
• For event-driven accounts, fade any post-rally complacency by selling out-of-the-money QCOM puts only after the investor day if the market overreacts positively; collect elevated implied vol while keeping entry disciplined.
• Take profits on partial QCOM longs into a >20% post-event gap unless management converts roadmap language into timing, customer, and margin specifics; without that, the move is likely multiple-led and vulnerable to retracement.