SpaceX Stock Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia, According to Certain Wall Street Experts

SpaceX went public at $135 per share with an initial market value of about $1.77 trillion, the largest IPO in history. The article is largely a valuation debate, with Jim Cramer arguing mismatched supply and demand could lift SpaceX to $6 trillion and Ron Baron envisioning $14 trillion over a decade if orbital AI data centers and Starlink expansion scale as planned. The piece is not a business update so much as commentary on extreme long-term upside versus the risk that the IPO's 92x sales valuation is unsustainable.

Analysis

The near-term trade is less about fundamental monetization and more about microstructure: a tiny tradable float combined with forced benchmark eligibility creates a classic scarcity squeeze. In the first days to weeks, marginal buyers are price-insensitive while supply is effectively capped, so volatility can be driven by indexing and passive replication rather than operating performance. That dynamic usually benefits high-beta semiconductor and AI infrastructure names only indirectly: if the market decides SpaceX is the new “must-own” AI platform, capital can rotate out of NVDA/PLTR temporarily as investors fund a crowded new growth sleeve.

The longer-dated bull case hinges on whether orbital compute becomes an actual capex-efficient substitute for terrestrial AI, not just a narrative premium. If the company can demonstrate credible unit economics by 2028, the biggest second-order winner is likely the launch-and-connectivity ecosystem, while the biggest loser is the power, cooling, and land-constrained data center stack that currently captures AI infrastructure spend. But that is a multi-year proof problem; until then, the valuation is dominated by optionality, which means the stock can de-rate violently if early technical milestones slip or if regulators push back on orbital spectrum, debris, or national-security concerns.

The consensus is missing how fragile the current excitement is to execution timing. Large IPOs with extreme multiples tend to be punished when the market transitions from scarcity premium to fundamental scrutiny, and the first catalyst for that transition is usually either lockup-style supply relief, weak post-IPO price discovery, or a missed product timeline. The most interesting contrarian setup is not shorting the stock outright, but fading the “AI infrastructure at any price” basket if this listing pulls speculative capital from profitable incumbents into a story that may not monetize for years.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Fade the near-term squeeze with a tactical short via put spreads on the newly listed shares: 1-3 month tenor, targeting a post-IPO volatility reset; risk/reward improves if implied vol remains elevated while float stays constrained.
• Pair trade: short the most speculative AI-infrastructure proxies against long NVDA over 3-6 months. If capital rotates into the new listing, NVDA can underperform tactically even as the secular AI thesis stays intact; use this as a relative-value hedge rather than a directional AI short.
• Avoid chasing PLTR into the event-driven AI-compute narrative. The stock is more exposed to sentiment spillover than to direct upside from orbital compute, making it a candidate for profit-taking if speculative multiples expand again.
• Set a 6-12 month watchlist trigger for a long entry only after the market gets a cleaner fundamental anchor: either evidence of commercial orbital compute economics or a meaningful post-lockup/supply overhang that compresses valuation by 30-40%.
• If liquidity allows, express a contrarian basket short in the most expensive unprofitable growth names against cash-generative tech leaders for 1-2 quarters; the risk/reward improves if this IPO becomes the new benchmark for funding-rate crowding and multiple compression.