Jim Cramer Says “D-Wave Is the One That I Identified as Being the Best” For Quantum

Jim Cramer said D-Wave Quantum is the quantum stock he identifies as the best, while also naming IBM and Honeywell’s upcoming quantum spinoff as alternatives. He later characterized quantum investing as more of a "science project," suggesting high uncertainty and limited near-term visibility. The article is largely commentary rather than new operating data, so the immediate market impact is likely modest.

Analysis

The market is still treating quantum as a long-duration optionality basket, but the key second-order effect here is capital allocation discipline: when the loudest consumer-facing voice calls the category a science project, it raises the hurdle rate for new money across the entire quantum chain. That is negative for early-stage pure plays like QBTS in the near term because valuation support is more sentiment-driven than cash-flow driven, and sentiment can compress quickly if AI spend keeps monopolizing investor attention.

The relative winner is IBM, not because it is the purest quantum story, but because it can absorb the R&D spend inside a broader enterprise software/services stack. That lowers execution risk and makes quantum exposure feel like a free call option rather than a standalone underwriting event. HON’s quantum spinout is more interesting as a future liquidity event than as an immediate fundamental catalyst; spinouts often re-rate only after the market can isolate TAM, burn rate, and milestones.

Contrarianly, the bearish view on QBTS may be too simplistic if the market is underestimating how quickly government/defense and materials-science use cases can create non-linear proof points. The real catalyst path is not consumer AI competition but a handful of narrow, defensible wins that shorten the timeline to enterprise adoption by 12-24 months. Until then, the stock behaves like a financing-sensitive duration asset: every quarter without a technical breakthrough or strategic contract increases dilution and multiple compression risk.

The trade setup is therefore asymmetric versus time horizon. Over days to weeks, the signal is negative for QBTS on sentiment and positive for IBM on relative quality; over 6-18 months, QBTS can outperform only if it converts hype into verifiable workload traction. The market is likely overpaying for the idea of quantum breadth and underpaying for balance-sheet and distribution advantages.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short QBTS tactically on strength for 2-6 weeks; risk/reward favors a multiple reset if quantum remains categorized as speculative and AI leadership rotates elsewhere.
• Long IBM vs short QBTS as a relative-value pair for 3-6 months; IBM offers quantum exposure with enterprise monetization and lower financing risk, while QBTS is more vulnerable to sentiment and dilution.
• Avoid chasing HON ahead of the spinout; wait for the first standalone disclosure set, then reassess after the market can price burn, roadmap, and customer pipeline rather than the narrative.
• For higher-risk accounts, buy QBTS downside protection via put spreads into any rally over the next 1-2 months; this limits theta bleed while keeping exposure to a genuine contract or technical breakout.
• Monitor for a strategic contract or government award in the next 1-2 quarters; if one lands, cover shorts immediately because the stock can re-rate sharply on even modest proof of commercialization.