We're buying more of Jim Cramer's favorite chip stock for the second time this week

Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust plans to buy another 100 shares of Intel (INTC) at about $110, taking its position to 1,100 shares and raising the portfolio weight to ~3% from 2.7%. The bullish read is supported by ASML reporting strong results and noting Intel Foundry is using its High NA EUV lithography on the 18A node for a subset of Intel Core Ultra Series 3 AI PC processors, signaling capacity and yield progress. Additional signals this week point to resilient AI spending, including TSMC’s ~+68% YoY June sales and IBM’s pre-announced warning that customers are favoring server/storage/memory capex over mainframes.

Analysis

This is more a credibility event for Intel Foundry than a near-term earnings event. If Intel is truly putting High-NA EUV into production flow on 18A, the market should start assigning option value to the foundry franchise rather than valuing it as a permanent cash drain; that re-rating can happen before revenue shows up, but it is fragile until external customer wins and yield data become visible. The operating leverage is 6-18 months out, not this quarter.

ASML is the cleaner first-order beneficiary because High-NA adoption validates its most expensive platform and supports a longer equipment cycle, while the second-order winners are the semicap and AI supply chain names tied to incremental wafer intensity, packaging, memory, and fab tools. The less obvious loser is IBM’s legacy mix: when enterprise budgets shift toward servers, storage, and memory, mainframe hardware becomes the funding source, which caps IBM’s multiple even if headline revenue looks stable.

The contrarian risk is that the market is overreading one production-related data point and underestimating how little incremental financial impact this has today. If Intel’s next two quarters do not show better gross margin, foundry utilization, or credible external tape-out wins, the stock remains a turnaround story with capital intensity still outrunning monetization. The thesis would be falsified quickly if ASML/TSMC commentary turns cautious on AI capex or if Intel’s 18A narrative fails to translate into order flow by the next earnings season.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long INTC on pullbacks over the next 1-3 months, but size it as a high-volatility turnaround trade; exit if the next earnings call does not show improving foundry utilization, gross margin, or external customer traction.
• Pair trade: long ASML / short IBM for 1-3 months to express the rotation from legacy enterprise IT to AI manufacturing spend; this is cleaner than a direct short on Intel because ASML has the more visible demand path.
• Add to SOXX or SMH only on confirmation from TSMC earnings commentary and ASML order guidance; treat this as a 6-12 month basket trade on sustained AI capex rather than a one-day headline move.
• If INTC gives back the premarket enthusiasm and cannot hold gains after the next catalyst, fade the rally rather than chase it; the market is likely ahead of fundamentals.