Samsung expects the Galaxy S26 series to sell 35 million units on the strength of AI

Samsung's mobile division (MX) has issued an aggressive 2026 outlook, projecting 36 million unit sales for its upcoming Galaxy S26 series and a total of 240 million smartphones globally, potentially generating over $90 billion in revenue. This forecast significantly exceeds the Galaxy S25's 22 million units and includes a combined 5 million unit target for the Fold 7 and Flip 7, alongside 27 million Galaxy Tab sales. The company attributes this strong confidence and expected growth to its strategic focus on AI, following a successful performance by its S25 and Fold 7 models in the current year.

Analysis

Samsung's mobile division (MX) has issued an aggressive 2026 outlook, projecting 36 million unit sales for its upcoming Galaxy S26 series, a significant increase from the 22 million S25 units sold in H1 this year. The company anticipates total smartphone sales of 240 million globally, potentially generating over $90 billion in revenue for MX alone. This bullish forecast follows a surprisingly strong year for Samsung, with both the Galaxy S25 and Galaxy Z Fold 7 outperforming expectations.

Beyond the S26 series, Samsung expects its foldable devices, the Fold 7 and Flip 7, to achieve combined sales of 5 million units, alongside a target of 27 million Galaxy Tab models. Samsung attributes this strong confidence and expected growth to its strategic focus on AI, noting the success of AI-heavy devices like the Pixel 10 as a potential market indicator.

The positive sentiment (0.8) and optimistic tone surrounding this guidance, coupled with a moderate market impact score (0.65), suggest that investors are likely to view these projections favorably. The rumored late February debut of the S26 series, with early March on-shelf availability, positions it as a clear near-term catalyst for the company's performance.

This ambitious guidance indicates Samsung's belief in its product pipeline and AI integration as key drivers for market share and revenue growth, particularly as older devices reach end-of-life and an upgrade cycle commences.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor Samsung's execution against its aggressive 2026 unit sales targets, particularly for the S26 series and foldables, as these are key revenue drivers and indicators of market demand.
• Evaluate the market reception and sales performance of the new AI-centric Galaxy S26 series upon its rumored March release to gauge the efficacy of Samsung's AI strategy and its impact on consumer upgrade cycles.
• Assess competitive responses in the AI smartphone segment and consider the potential for upside if Samsung successfully leverages AI to drive market share gains, while also factoring in execution risks associated with such high growth projections.