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UBS raises oil price forecasts at Middle East conflict escalates

UBS
Geopolitics & WarEnergy Markets & PricesCommodities & Raw MaterialsAnalyst EstimatesAnalyst InsightsCommodity Futures

UBS raised its Brent crude forecasts to $86/bbl for 2026 (up $14) and $80/bbl for 2027 (up $10), citing an escalating Middle East conflict and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The revision signals upside risk to oil prices, potential margin tailwinds for energy producers, and added inflationary pressure for oil-consuming sectors—monitor energy exposures and inflation-sensitive assets.

Analysis

UBS raised its Brent crude forecasts to $86/bbl for 2026 (up $14) and $80/bbl for 2027 (up $10), citing an escalating Middle East conflict and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The revision signals upside risk to oil prices, potential margin tailwinds for energy producers, and added inflationary pressure for oil-consuming sectors—monitor energy exposures and inflation-sensitive assets.

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