Why The Probability For A Global Recession Is Increasing

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have rallied sharply, but the outlook is turning more cautious amid unresolved macro risks. Persistent inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, and energy market instability tied to the Iran conflict are cited as factors that could raise recession risk and limit Fed flexibility. The article points to a more defensive posture for risk assets rather than a change in fundamentals.

Analysis

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have rallied sharply, but the outlook is turning more cautious amid unresolved macro risks. Persistent inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, and energy market instability tied to the Iran conflict are cited as factors that could raise recession risk and limit Fed flexibility. The article points to a more defensive posture for risk assets rather than a change in fundamentals.