Goldman Sachs maintains 2026 copper price, surplus forecasts

The market is underpricing how quickly a sulfuric acid bottleneck can turn a seemingly comfortable copper surplus into a regional supply shock. The key second-order effect is that acid is not just an input cost; it is a throughput constraint for SX-EW operations, so a delay of weeks can force disproportionate tonnage losses even if mined copper ore is available. That makes this more relevant for names and jurisdictions with low inventory buffers and long logistics chains than for the global copper price alone.

The biggest near-term beneficiaries are not obvious copper producers, but sulfur, acid, and logistics substitutes that can arbitrage the constraint. If Chinese export restrictions persist, spot acid should reprice faster than copper cathodes, widening margins for producers with captive sulfuric acid capacity and penalizing Chile/DRC operators that rely on imported acid. This also creates a latent rally condition for copper equities only if the disruption extends into late Q2, because the first response is usually inventory drawdown, not immediate production cuts.

The contrarian view is that the headline supply risk may be more of a second-half 2026 earnings issue than a same-quarter copper price catalyst. Investors will likely front-run the geopolitical premium in copper futures, but the more durable trade is on names whose unit economics are directly levered to acid availability and shipping normalization. If the Strait of Hormuz risk de-escalates or China relaxes exports, the premium can unwind quickly, because the market currently has enough visible inventories to bridge a short interruption.

Goldman’s unchanged price deck suggests the base case still assumes demand softens enough to absorb disruptions, which leaves room for a mispricing in equities rather than the commodity. The cleaner trade is to separate duration: short vulnerable high-cost or acid-dependent producers against long suppliers of inputs and infrastructure that benefit from scarcity and freight rerouting. The key catalyst window is the next 4-8 weeks, when inventory cover in the DRC shifts from a buffer to a liability.