What happens next in Hormuz? ING outlines three scenarios

The key event is the practical blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting ING to revise forecasts and publish three scenarios (base case: intensive combat ends within ~2 weeks followed by months of lower-intensity strikes). ING views the shock as supply-side, causing upward revisions to inflation forecasts larger than downward growth revisions and complicating central bank policy. ING currently sees delays to energy and other shipments rather than structural oil/gas production losses, but warns prolonged disruption could cause greater supply reductions and sustained price pressure.

Analysis

NVDA is the clearest asymmetric beneficiary through two mechanisms: sustained, predictable high-end demand allows pricing power and prioritized wafer capacity allocation at foundries, and any incremental freight/insurance-driven component disruption favors vendors with backlog and flex inventory — both bolstering ASPs and margin retention over the next 3–12 months. Expect lead-time elasticity to translate into quarterly revenue smoothing for NVDA while exacerbating volatility for smaller fabless players that lack multi-sourcing or long-term wafers.

Tesla sits in the middle: scale and vertical integration create optionality to absorb higher logistic and input costs and to convert pricing into delivered margins, but delivery cadence and working-capital swings become the primary short-term P&L lever. A 30–90 day backlog shock will show up as higher receivable/inventory turns and compressed free cash flow; over 6–18 months, consistent order visibility and pricing flexibility determine whether the firm outcompetes legacy OEMs who can’t flex margins.

For ING and European banks, repeated forecast revisions and elevated real rates increase market- and trade-book volatility, which flows through trading revenue and provisioning. Macro is now asymmetric: a short sharp improvement (weeks) can unwind risk premia quickly; a protracted supply-induced inflation (months) forces higher-for-longer rates and compresses growth multiples across growth equities — the key catalytic windows are next 30–90 days for shipping/insurance data and 3–9 months for central bank messaging to reprice risk assets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NVDA equity + calendar call: Buy NVDA shares (size 2-4% net exposure) and purchase a 9–12 month 0.35–0.45 delta call as asymmetric upside protection. Entry: add on up to 10% pullback from spot or immediately if market breadth weakens; target 30–60% upside in 6–12 months vs single-digit option premium paid as insurance.
• Long TSLA on delivery-resilience thesis: Initiate a 6–12 month bull-call spread (e.g., buy 0.40 delta calls / sell 0.15 delta calls) to capture margin pass-through while capping premium. Size: 1–2% net exposure. R/R: 2–3x payoff if deliveries normalize and input-cost pass-through occurs; downside capped to premium if demand falls.
• Short ING via equity or put option (3–6 months): Take a modest short (0.5–1% NAV) or buy 6-month puts to express earnings/trading-revenue downside if volatility and provisions rise. Risk: central bank or market stabilization could force a rapid short squeeze; set stop at 30% adverse move.
• Event triggers and hedges: Hedge macro tail risk with 3–6 month protection on duration-sensitive assets (e.g., buy long-dated Eurodollar call spreads or equity put protection) ahead of next 30–90 day shipping and central-bank communication windows.