DA Davidson reiterates buy rating on NCR Voyix stock amid payments pivot

DA Davidson reiterated its buy rating and $17 price target on NCR Voyix (VYX), citing the company's strategic shift toward a commercial partnership with WorldPay to monetize payments volume and implement a cohesive platform strategy within its Retail & Restaurants division. NCR Corp reported better-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings, with EPS of $0.09 on revenue of $617 million, despite a 13% year-over-year revenue decline, while adjusted EBITDA increased 19%; full-year revenue guidance is between $2.575B and $2.65B.

Analysis

DA Davidson has reaffirmed its buy rating and a $17.00 price target for NCR Voyix (VYX), which currently trades at $11.80, reflecting analyst optimism following recent meetings with company leadership and a nearly 8% stock price increase in the past week. Key to this positive outlook is NCR Voyix's strategic pivot from JetPay to a commercial partnership with WorldPay, aimed at monetizing substantial payments volume across its installed base, alongside a more cohesive platform strategy within its Retail & Restaurants division designed to enhance customer wallet share and accelerate new client acquisition. Supporting this strategic direction, NCR Corp reported first-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.09, surpassing the $0.07 forecast, on revenues of $617 million, which also exceeded the anticipated $608.72 million. Despite a 13% year-over-year decline in total revenue, recurring revenue grew by 2% to $470 million, and adjusted EBITDA significantly increased by 19% to $75 million, indicating successful strategic shifts towards more stable income and improved operational efficiency. The company has also launched its Voyage Commerce Platform and provided full-year revenue guidance between $2.575 billion and $2.650 billion, forecasting a decline, yet anticipates a robust 21-28% increase in adjusted EBITDA, while actively working to mitigate supply chain and tariff-related risks. Other analysts from firms like RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley are also engaging with NCR Corp regarding its evolving payments strategy and international expansion.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the potential upside for NCR Voyix, given DA Davidson's $17.00 price target against the current $11.80, supported by positive Q1 2025 earnings and strategic initiatives aimed at higher-margin payment monetization and platform integration.
• It is crucial to monitor the execution and impact of the WorldPay partnership and the new platform strategy in the Retail & Restaurants division, as these are central to NCR Voyix's ability to grow recurring revenue and improve profitability.
• Evaluate the company's progress towards its full-year guidance, particularly its ability to achieve the projected 21-28% adjusted EBITDA growth despite an anticipated decline in total revenue, focusing on the increasing contribution of recurring revenue.
• Maintain awareness of potential headwinds from supply chain disruptions and tariff-related costs, and how effectively management mitigates these risks to protect margins and operational stability.