First Horizon National (FHN) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

First Horizon National (FHN) is slated to report Q2 2025 earnings on July 16, with consensus estimates projecting $0.41 EPS, a 13.9% year-over-year increase, and revenues of $826.37 million, up 1.4%. While the company exhibits a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +2.94%, suggesting potential for an earnings beat, a recent 1.73% downward revision in consensus EPS estimates over the past 30 days, coupled with a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), indicates a mixed outlook and makes a definitive earnings surprise prediction challenging despite FHN's history of beating estimates in three of the last four quarters.

Analysis

First Horizon National (FHN) presents a mixed and uncertain outlook ahead of its Q2 2025 earnings release on July 16. On a positive note, consensus estimates project strong year-over-year earnings growth of 13.9% to $0.41 per share, though this is accompanied by tepid revenue growth of just 1.4% to $826.37 million. The company's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +2.94% suggests that the most recent analyst revisions are bullish, hinting at a potential earnings beat. This is further supported by a historical trend of surpassing consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters. However, these positive indicators are significantly counteracted by negative signals. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.73% over the last 30 days, reflecting broader analyst caution. More critically, the stock holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), which, according to the methodology described, severely undermines the predictive power of a positive ESP and makes it difficult to conclusively forecast an earnings beat. Consequently, FHN is not considered a compelling earnings-beat candidate based on this combination of factors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the conflicting signals of a positive Earnings ESP against a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), investors should approach the upcoming earnings announcement with caution, as a positive surprise is not a high-probability event.
• Pay close attention to management's commentary on the drivers of the projected 13.9% EPS growth, particularly how it was achieved against a minimal 1.4% increase in revenue, as this will be crucial for determining the quality of the earnings.
• Considering the overall 'Sell' rating and the recent downward trend in consensus estimates, it may be prudent to await the results and forward guidance from the July 16 report before initiating or adding to a position.