Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Kaspi.kz reported Q2 revenue of KZT 1.1T ($2.3B), +15% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of KZT 397B ($826M) up 5% despite higher interest rates; net income was flat at KZT 259B ($539M) as higher funding costs offset growth. Marketplace GMV rose 15% to KZT 2.3T ($4.8B) and e-commerce GMV increased 28% (constant currency) alongside take-rate expansion (e-commerce 3P +160bps to 16.1%). The board proposed an 18% dividend increase to KZT 1,000 per ADS, while management noted Kazakhstan deposit rate cuts (20% to 19% on the 3-month product) should benefit earnings more in Q4; the company also launched Kasper, a personal AI shopping assistant, reaching ~20% of customers in its first month.

Analysis

KSPI is starting to shift from a pure growth story to a funding-cost reacceleration story. The market likely underestimates the lagged benefit of deposit repricing: with a meaningful chunk of liabilities rolling over in three months, the P&L lift is back-half weighted and should matter more in Q4 than in the current print. That makes the next two quarters a setup for margin expansion even if top-line growth moderates, which is the right lens for multiple expansion rather than headline revenue alone.

The second-order winner is the checkout-to-credit funnel in Turkiye. If the bank license and merchant finance rollout work, KSPI can pull demand away from standalone BNPL and regional consumer lenders by embedding financing at the point of sale; the competitive threat is less to global payments names than to local credit-originators and wallet ecosystems. The AI assistant is strategically useful, but near term it is a conversion tool, not a standalone monetization engine, so I would not pay much for the Kasper narrative until there is evidence of higher basket size or lower CAC.

Main risk: the same disinflation that helps funding costs can also slow payments volume growth faster than expected, leaving revenue mix weaker before cost relief fully shows up. A second risk is asset-quality creep from longer-duration merchant/car lending as the Turkey buildout adds complexity. The thesis is falsified if net interest margin does not improve sequentially by Q4 or if management signals any delay/overspend in the Turkey fintech launch; over 6-18 months, that is the key tell on whether this is a compounder rerating or just a temporary rate-cycle trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long KSPI on a 3-6 month horizon; buy weakness rather than chasing strength. Target a rerating into Q4 as deposit repricing flows through, with risk/reward favorable if the stock is still priced off near-term flat earnings. Falsify if Q4 margin expansion does not materialize.
• Use a KSPI Jan-2027 call spread instead of outright equity if liquidity is acceptable. This expresses the lagged funding-cost tailwind and Turkey optionality while defining downside if inflation reaccelerates or the bank repricing benefit disappoints.
• Relative-value pair: long KSPI / short PYPL for 6 months. KSPI has a clearer cyclical earnings inflection from lower rates plus embedded credit monetization, while PYPL still faces take-rate pressure and a harder path to margin expansion. Exit if KSPI’s funding benefit stalls or PYPL reaccelerates transaction margin.
• Treat Kasper as a watch item, not a standalone trade until there is evidence of higher conversion or AOV. If the company starts showing measurable uplift in basket size or purchase frequency by the next two quarters, add to KSPI; if not, fade any AI-driven multiple premium.