Nvidia could recoup as much as $15 billion in revenue with H20 sales to China set to resume

Nvidia's stock surged to a new record high after the company secured assurances from the Trump administration regarding licenses to resume H20 AI chip sales to China, following an April export ban. Analysts now project Nvidia could recover $10-$15 billion in China revenue in the second half of the year, potentially boosting FY26 regional sales to $19.5-$20.5 billion, despite earlier revenue losses of $2.5 billion in Q1 and a projected $8 billion in Q2 from the ban. This potential revenue recoupment is significant given China's importance as a market, though the realization of these projections hinges on manufacturing capacity and the formal granting of licenses.

Analysis

Nvidia's stock has reached a new record high following assurances from the Trump administration that it will be granted licenses to resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China, reversing a surprise export ban from April. This development has prompted Wall Street analysts to project a significant revenue recovery, with estimates suggesting Nvidia could recoup between $10 billion and $15 billion in China sales in the second half of the year. This could elevate the company's total China revenue for its 2026 fiscal year to as high as $20.5 billion, a notable increase from the roughly $17 billion in fiscal 2025 and a sharp turnaround from the $2.5 billion in lost sales in Q1 and a projected $8 billion loss in Q2 due to the ban. Stifel has raised its price target on the stock to $202 from $180, citing pent-up demand. However, significant execution risks remain. Analysts caution that these revenue targets are contingent upon Nvidia's ability to secure sufficient manufacturing capacity from its partner TSMC, which is described as 'tight'. Furthermore, the 'assurances' must translate into formally granted licenses, followed by purchase orders and shipments, a process that introduces uncertainty into the timeline and scale of the recovery.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The potential resumption of China sales is a strong positive catalyst, but investors should monitor for official confirmation of granted licenses and updates on manufacturing capacity before fully pricing in the high-end analyst revenue forecasts of up to $20.5 billion for fiscal year 2026.
• Pay close attention to Nvidia's upcoming management commentary for concrete evidence of secured Chinese purchase orders, as this will be the first tangible indicator of the company's ability to convert policy assurances into the projected $10-15 billion second-half revenue rebound.
• Given that China officially accounts for 13% of revenue but potentially 25-40% of end-customer demand, this policy reversal significantly de-risks near-term earnings, though the 'surprise' nature of the initial ban underscores the persistent geopolitical volatility that remains a key long-term risk factor for the stock.