Hiring Trends Report 2026: Study finds AI pushing employers away from traditional CVs in the search for ‘authentic’ talent

Willo's Hiring Trends Report 2026, drawing on responses from more than 100 hiring professionals and 2.5 million candidate interviews, finds a marked shift away from CV-first hiring—41% of employers are actively moving away and only 37% rate credentials as among the most reliable indicators—with 10% having largely replaced CVs with skills- and scenario-based assessments. AI is widely embedded (77% encounter AI-assisted applications; 65% increased AI tool use) but remains a support tool as 79% insist final hiring decisions stay human-led; Willo, backed by over £6m, is expanding globally and developing credential-verification products to capitalise on demand for skills-based, fairer hiring processes.

Analysis

Market structure: The shift from CV-first hiring to skills- and scenario-driven assessment benefits HR-tech platforms that provide video interviewing, proctored skills tests and credential verification (Willo-like offerings), and cloud/AI infra providers that embed these features. Legacy resume-parsing and pure job-board models face margin pressure as buyers pay up for verified, structured workflows; expect 5–15% pricing power gains for best-in-class assessment providers over 12–24 months and compression for low-differentiation job boards.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are regulatory constraints (EU AI Act enforcement, algorithmic-discrimination rulings) and adversarial AI (deepfake interviews) that could force costly verification or slow adoption; these could materialize within 6–18 months. Short-term (days–weeks) effects are limited to vendor RFP activity spikes; medium-term (3–12 months) implementation lags; long-term (1–3 years) structural budget reallocation from recruitment agencies to SaaS assessments.

Trade implications: Direct plays favor large platform owners with distribution and AI stacks — MSFT (LinkedIn + Azure) and HCM SaaS leaders (WORK, ADP) as primary longs; cybersecurity/data-privacy names (CRWD, PANW) are complementary longs for protection. Use relative trades (long MSFT/WORK vs short Recruit Holdings 6098.T) to exploit structural winners vs legacy job boards, and express conviction with 3–6 month call spreads on MSFT while sizing exposures conservatively (1–3% each).

Contrarian angles: The market may be pricing immediate monetization too optimistically — procurement cycles are long (average enterprise HR deals 6–12 months), so valuation re-rating could take 12–24 months. Also, skills-assessment vendors risk being commoditised if cloud providers embed free/basic tools; downside surprises include gaming of assessments and privacy lawsuits that could reset multiples faster than adoption benefits accrue.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in MSFT within 30 days to capture LinkedIn monetisation and Azure AI demand; target +15% upside over 12 months, set tactical stop-loss at -8% to limit drawdown.
• Build a 1–2% long position in WORK (Workday) over the next 60 days to play HCM upgrades and structured-hiring adoption; target +20% in 12 months, stop-loss -10%.
• Initiate a relative-value pair: long MSFT 3% vs short Recruit Holdings (TYO:6098) 1.5% (2:1 ratio) for a 6–12 month trade — exit if the spread narrows by 50% or if Recruit reports product-led revenue growth >10% QoQ.
• Buy a 3–6 month MSFT call spread (buy ATM, sell ~+8% OTM) allocating ~0.5% of portfolio to express upside while capping premium; if adding >1% net equity exposure, hedge tail risk with a 5–7% OTM put (0.25% allocation).