Uber stock reiterated at Buy by TD Cowen on bookings growth

TD Cowen reiterated a Buy on Uber with a $114 price target, citing Q1 gross bookings of $52.8 billion, up 23.4% year over year and in line with consensus, and EBITDA growth of 29.6%. The firm sees attractive valuation on 22.7x earnings and a 5.8% free cash flow yield, while Uber also continues to expand through stake purchases in Delivery Hero, a potential Kakao Mobility deal, and added investment in Lucid. Overall, the article is constructive on Uber’s fundamentals and strategic optionality, though the news is mainly analyst and corporate-update driven rather than a near-term catalyst.

Analysis

UBER is increasingly behaving like a compounding platform rather than a cyclical ride-share/food-delivery name. The real second-order takeaway is that incremental merchant fees and adjacent capital allocation are improving monetization without requiring heroic volume assumptions; that matters because a re-rate can continue even if trip growth normalizes. The market still seems to underappreciate how much of the upside now comes from operating leverage plus optionality on autonomous distribution, not just baseline gross bookings growth.

The bigger hidden dynamic is competitive pressure on smaller delivery and mobility players. If Uber keeps extracting better take rates while using a fortress balance sheet to buy strategic stakes and expand partnerships, weaker regional platforms face a widening cost-of-capital gap and may be forced into pricing irrationally to defend share. That tends to compress the entire category’s valuation multiples even if end-demand remains healthy.

LCID is a more subtle beneficiary/financing conduit than a direct fundamental winner. The capital injection and partnership signal validation, but they also reinforce that autonomous/EV economics are still being subsidized by strategic players rather than proven at scale; the risk is that investors confuse partnership headlines with durable unit economics. If autonomous deployment milestones slip or regulatory approval takes longer than expected, the partnership premium can fade quickly over a 1-3 month window.

Consensus is likely too anchored to near-term multiple expansion on UBER alone and too optimistic on the strategic narrative value of LCID. The market is pricing Uber as if autonomous upside is partially de-risked, but the monetization inflection from autonomy is still a years-long option, not a next-quarter earnings driver. That creates a favorable setup to own UBER versus lower-quality mobility/EV exposures, while fading any overreaction in LCID to financing-news driven pops.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long UBER / short a basket of lower-quality mobility or delivery competitors for 1-3 months; the thesis is that platform scale and pricing power keep compounding while smaller peers absorb margin pressure. Target a 10-15% relative outperformance if Uber continues to raise take rates and guide steadily.
• Buy UBER on any 3-5% pullback over the next 2-4 weeks and hold into the next earnings print; risk/reward remains favorable as the stock can re-rate toward the low-$80s if execution stays clean, while downside is better contained by cash flow support.
• Consider selling out-of-the-money LCID call spreads into strength for 1-2 months; the market may be overpaying for partnership optionality before there is evidence of sustainable automotive economics. Risk is capped, and theta should work in favor if headlines fade.
• Pair long UBER / short LCID for a 1-6 month horizon; this isolates the difference between a business with visible monetization and one still reliant on strategic funding. Expect UBER to compound through fundamentals while LCID remains headline-sensitive.
• If initiating new UBER exposure, use phased entries rather than a full clip; the main risk is a macro multiple reset, not operating deterioration. Add on any post-earnings weakness if gross bookings and EBITDA continue to track near current expectations.