Staycations stay popular as summer camping starts over May long weekend

Canadians are continuing to favor staycations and local camping this May long weekend, with RVezy reporting U.S.-bound Canadian rentals falling to 6% this year from 25% in 2024. Statistics Canada also showed about 35,300 Canadians returning from the U.S. into Alberta in April, down 2.6% year over year and well below 47,500 in 2024. Demand is being supported by high fuel costs, the Canada Strong Pass, and cold weather, while Banff campgrounds are fully booked and Jasper is 63% to 85% occupied.

Analysis

The real signal here is not “more camping,” but a continuing reallocation of discretionary spend from long-haul travel into local experiential consumption. That favors operators with scarce capacity near major population centers and degrades pricing power for destination travel that requires flights, USD exposure, or high fuel burn; the marginal dollar is being spent on proximity and convenience, not adventure. In the near term, this supports high occupancy at regional campgrounds, RV rentals, provincial park-adjacent hospitality, and lower-ticket drive-to leisure, while making cross-border leisure retail and U.S.-exposed travel channels more vulnerable to a slow bleed in bookings.

The second-order effect is on mix, not just volume. When consumers trade a Florida/Mountain West trip for a provincial getaway, they still spend, but they spend differently: more on groceries, fuel, outdoor gear, and short-stay accommodations, less on airfare, hotels, and destination entertainment. That implies a relative winner set in Canadian retail staples, outdoor hardgoods, and domestic tourism infrastructure, while U.S.-bound travel aggregators and border-adjacent discretionary spend can remain soft even if macro data stabilize. The other subtle beneficiary is local cultural tourism, where unique inventory can command better utilization than generic campgrounds once the “stay local” mindset persists beyond a single holiday.

The contrarian risk is that this is partly a weather-driven, holiday-timed snapshot rather than a durable demand shift. If spring temperatures normalize and fuel prices ease, some of the current staycation trade could unwind quickly over the next 4-8 weeks; if instead cost-of-living pressure remains sticky into summer, the behavioral shift becomes more entrenched over months. Watch for booking data into July/August: if U.S. inbound leisure volumes keep slipping while Canadian park capacity stays tight, this stops being sentiment and becomes a structural channel rotation.

For risk assets, the key is not to chase broad consumer beta; the cleaner expression is relative value between domestic leisure beneficiaries and U.S.-exposed travel names. The most attractive setup is a pair that isolates geography and trip length rather than outright consumer health, because total spend is not collapsing — it is being redirected.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long CTC.A.TO / CTC.TO or similar Canadian outdoor-retail exposure on a 1-3 month view; thesis is mix shift toward camping and drive-to leisure, with upside if summer weather stays volatile and consumers keep buying proximity-based recreation. Use a tight stop if July booking data rolls over.
• Pair trade: long choice hotels / regional Canadian leisure beneficiaries vs short U.S.-leisure-exposed travel intermediaries (for example, long AC.TO only if you can hedge with a short U.S. OTA/airline proxy). Timeframe: 6-10 weeks into summer booking season. Risk/reward improves if border crossings keep underperforming.
• Add a tactical long in Canadian consumer staples or grocery names with exposed summer traffic near recreation corridors; the better trade is “more local spend” rather than “more spend.” Target a 5-8% relative outperformance window over the next quarter.
• Avoid chasing broad airline exposure into the holiday weekend; if the staycation trend is real, domestic leisure capacity may hold up, but higher fuel sensitivity and softer U.S.-bound demand can cap upside. Better entry would be after late-June load-factor prints.
• If you want an event-driven expression, buy call spreads on a Canadian outdoor gear or RV-linked name into the start of summer, financed by selling upside in a U.S.-oriented travel name. This is a 30-45 day tactical trade; thesis breaks if weather normalizes and border traffic rebounds.