I'd Wait 90 Days Before Buying More SpaceX Stock. Here's Why.

SpaceX’s IPO raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, but only about 4% of shares were initially floated and additional supply will hit the market in staged releases starting with 7% tranches around 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days post-IPO. The article argues the coming lock-up expirations could create downward pressure on the stock and suggests waiting at least 90 days before reassessing. The tone is cautious and somewhat bearish on near-term performance, though the piece is primarily analytical rather than event-driven.

Analysis

The near-term setup is less about fundamental deterioration and more about supply overhang being mispriced by retail momentum traders. A float that expands in staged increments creates a repeated “mini-IPO” pattern: each release resets marginal demand, forces higher liquidity premiums, and gives prior buyers a chance to de-risk into strength. That tends to pressure price not because the business is weaker, but because the stock must clear a succession of new sellers before a durable ownership base forms.

The first real catalyst is not the next headline or earnings print; it is the market’s reaction to the first meaningful unlock window. If the stock is still trading on narrative scarcity into that date, downside can accelerate as implied scarcity premium evaporates. Conversely, if the shares re-rate materially lower before the first unlock, the supply shock becomes easier to absorb because the marginal seller is already getting paid less and the post-lock event becomes more “known known” than surprise.

The bigger second-order risk is that early post-IPO weakness can poison the future capital raise path. A weak tape makes future secondary issuance more dilutive, increases employee retention pressure, and can force management to emphasize liquidity over price support. That dynamic often creates a self-reinforcing loop: more float -> less scarcity premium -> lower price -> more impatient insider supply on each unlock window.

The contrarian miss is that the setup may be attractive only after the first two to three unlocks, not before. If the stock stabilizes despite incremental supply, that would signal real institutional demand rather than narrative demand, which is the point where a buyable base can form. Until then, the risk/reward favors fading strength rather than catching the first post-IPO dip, because the path of least resistance remains lower as supply increases faster than conviction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating long exposure ahead of the first major unlock window; wait for the first post-unlock trading range to establish whether new supply is being absorbed or merely capped.
• For tactical downside, consider buying 1-3 month put spreads into the next scheduled share-release date to express a controlled drawdown view with defined theta risk.
• If already long, trim 25-50% into any pre-unlock strength and rebalance only after the market has digested at least one or two supply events.
• Use a pairs framework: short the newly public, supply-overhang name against a higher-quality, proven late-stage growth compounder where float is stable and secondary risk is lower; the relative-value trade should outperform if IPO sentiment cools.
• Set a re-entry trigger only if the stock holds a higher low after the first unlock and volume declines on down days, which would indicate institutional sponsorship rather than retail-driven price support.