United Natural Foods stock price target raised by BMO Capital to $48

United Natural Foods (UNFI) reported stronger-than-expected Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings, with EPS of -$0.11 and revenue of $7.7 billion both surpassing analyst forecasts. Following these results, BMO Capital raised its price target on UNFI to $48 from $36, maintaining an Outperform rating, and revised its EBITDA forecasts upward for fiscal 2026 and 2027, citing the company's strong momentum and updated growth algorithm targeting above-market EBITDA and sales growth. Despite a 29% surge in the stock over the past week and trading near its 52-week high, BMO views its conservative 6.5x EV/EBITDA valuation as indicating further upside, with an upcoming analyst day potentially serving as an additional catalyst.

Analysis

United Natural Foods (UNFI) has demonstrated significant positive momentum following a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 report. The company surpassed analyst expectations with revenue of $7.7 billion against a $7.61 billion forecast and a reported loss per share of -$0.11, which was narrower than the anticipated loss of -$0.16. This performance prompted BMO Capital to raise its price target to $48.00 from $36.00, maintaining an Outperform rating, and to revise its EBITDA forecasts upward by 4% for fiscal 2026 and 7% for fiscal 2027. Despite a 29% stock price surge in the past week, bringing it near its 52-week high, BMO Capital suggests further upside exists, terming its 6.5x EV/EBITDA valuation basis as 'conservative'. The bullish outlook is further supported by the company's new internal guidance, which targets low-double-digit percentage EBITDA growth and low-single-digit sales growth, both of which exceed current market expectations. An upcoming analyst day is positioned as a potential near-term catalyst that could further bolster the investment case.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the earnings beat, positive analyst revisions, and management's optimistic growth targets, investors may view the current momentum as validation of a turnaround, though the stock's rapid 29% appreciation warrants caution against entering an over-extended position.
• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming analyst day for specific details on the execution strategy behind the new growth algorithm, as the ability to achieve above-market EBITDA and sales growth is critical to justifying the stock's recent rally and future upside.
• Despite the positive signals, the negative EPS of -$0.11 highlights ongoing profitability challenges; therefore, risk-averse investors should assess the company's path to positive earnings before increasing exposure.