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Regression To Trend: S&P Composite 207% Above Trend In June

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Regression To Trend: S&P Composite 207% Above Trend In June

The article notes the S&P Composite has stayed above its long-term trend for nearly 30 years, except in 2008-2009 when it fell ~30% below trend. It argues the market’s current deviation from trend is “entirely unprecedented,” implying elevated risk of mean reversion and a potentially cautious setup for investors.

Analysis

The article notes the S&P Composite has stayed above its long-term trend for nearly 30 years, except in 2008-2009 when it fell ~30% below trend. It argues the market’s current deviation from trend is “entirely unprecedented,” implying elevated risk of mean reversion and a potentially cautious setup for investors.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

mildly negative

Sentiment Score

-0.15

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