The Smartest Way to Play Quantum Computing May Already Be in Your Portfolio

Amazon's AWS Braket platform is positioning the company to capitalize on the burgeoning quantum computing market, regardless of which hardware provider ultimately succeeds. AWS Braket serves as a cloud-based marketplace for quantum computing services from companies like D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti, while Amazon is simultaneously developing its own quantum processors. This dual approach provides Amazon with both current revenue streams and future potential in a market projected to reach $100 billion by 2035, making it a less risky, more diversified investment option compared to pure-play quantum computing companies.

Analysis

Amazon is executing a dual-pronged strategy to capture value from the burgeoning quantum computing sector, positioning itself as a lower-risk investment compared to pure-play hardware developers. The first pillar is its AWS Braket platform, a cloud-based marketplace that provides access to quantum computers from various providers, including D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti. This 'picks-and-shovels' approach mirrors the highly successful AWS model—which surpassed $100 billion in revenue in 2024—by generating platform fees regardless of which hardware technology ultimately prevails. Braket is already serving paying enterprise clients like Volkswagen and Goldman Sachs for research applications. The second pillar is Amazon's own in-house quantum hardware development at its Caltech center, which provides a strategic hedge and the potential for proprietary technological breakthroughs. The market context is one of accelerating timelines, underscored by IBM's 2029 target for a fault-tolerant system and a surge in venture funding, which doubled to $1.25 billion in Q1 2025. Despite the speculative rallies in stocks like Rigetti (+1,100%) and IonQ (+500%), Amazon's valuation at a reported 24 times 2027 projected earnings does not appear to price in this significant quantum optionality, which could represent a $30 billion high-margin revenue opportunity by 2035 if AWS captures 30% of the market.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors seeking exposure to the high-growth quantum computing theme should consider Amazon as a diversified, lower-risk alternative to speculative, cash-flow-negative pure-play companies.
• The current valuation, at 24x projected 2027 earnings, may not fully reflect the long-term earnings power of the AWS quantum business, presenting a potential entry point for a position in a foundational technology provider.
• Monitor the adoption rate and client base growth of the AWS Braket platform as a key performance indicator for near-term monetization of the quantum ecosystem.
• While the thesis is compelling, note that Amazon's quantum revenue is currently immaterial to its nearly $700 billion total revenue, making this a long-term optionality play rather than a near-term earnings driver.