Could SpaceX be an $800 stock? This analyst thinks so

SpaceX’s valuation remains in focus after its June 12 IPO, which put the company’s market cap near $2T. However, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale argued the stock is “undervalued” at current levels despite concerns about a stretched multiple, offering a modestly positive contrarian read rather than a fundamental downgrade.

Analysis

The key market mechanism is not the analyst call itself, but the signal that the public market is willing to underwrite a very long-duration cash-flow story at scale. That tends to widen the valuation gap between the few names with real launch cadence / recurring revenue visibility and the rest of the aerospace-software basket; in practice, the first beneficiaries are likely adjacent “category” names such as RKLB, ASTS, and IRDM if investors decide the sector deserves a higher terminal multiple. The loser is the lower-quality end of the space complex, where any disappointment in backlog conversion or capex discipline will now be punished more quickly.

Near term, this is mostly a sentiment and positioning event rather than a fundamental one. The risk is that post-IPO euphoria front-runs evidence: if the next 1-2 quarters do not show accelerating gross margin or a clear path to free cash flow, the stock can mean-revert hard because the multiple is doing all the work. The main catalyst path over the next 1-3 months is any secondary offering, insider lockup overhang, or guidance that clarifies how much of the valuation rests on AI monetization versus core aerospace economics.

The contrarian view is that “undervalued” can be true on a multi-year DCF and still be untradeable here because the discount rate, execution bar, and float mechanics are all adverse. If rates back up or growth equities de-rate, a 2T-style narrative name can underperform even while fundamentals improve. What would falsify the bearish skepticism is a repeatable beat on launch/services margin or a material upward revision in revenue durability; absent that, this is more a watchlist name than an outright long.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate chase in SPCX; wait for the first post-IPO quarter or secondary/lockup details before underwriting the multiple. Risk/reward is poor if valuation is already narrative-driven.
• If liquidity allows, use SPCX weakness after any lockup or secondary overhang to initiate a small tactical long via call spreads rather than stock, targeting a 3-6 month catalyst window and limiting downside to premium paid.
• Relative-value idea: long a basket of higher-quality space enablers (RKLB/ASTS/IRDM) against short a weaker, lower-growth aerospace proxy if public-market enthusiasm lifts the sector indiscriminately; thesis fails if sector-wide multiple expansion is broad and persistent.
• Set an alert for the next earnings print: if gross margin and free-cash-flow guidance do not inflect, fade any post-IPO squeeze in SPCX; if they do, reassess for a medium-term momentum trade.
• Watch 10-year real yields and growth-factor performance: SPCX’s valuation is likely more sensitive to discount-rate moves than to incremental analyst coverage, so a rates backup is a clean timing signal for a short or hedged entry.