These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks Investment Research highlights its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool as a method for identifying stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings estimates. The tool compares the most accurate analyst estimate against the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and when combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better, has historically correlated with positive earnings surprises 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. Blackstone Inc. (BX) and Agree Realty (ADC) are cited as current examples exhibiting positive ESPs, indicating potential upside surprises ahead of their respective earnings reports, offering investors a data-driven approach to anticipate market-moving earnings events.

Analysis

The provided analysis centers on the Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) model as a tool for identifying potential positive earnings surprises. The methodology combines a positive ESP, which measures the percentage difference between the most recent analyst estimate and the consensus estimate, with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better. According to the article's 10-year backtest, this combination has historically led to a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time and yielded average annual returns of 28.3%. The report highlights two specific finance sector stocks, Blackstone Inc. (BX) and Agree Realty (ADC), as current examples fitting this criteria. Blackstone holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a positive ESP of +0.50%, with its Most Accurate Estimate of $1.09 per share exceeding the consensus of $1.08. Similarly, Agree Realty, also a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), shows a positive ESP of +0.47% based on its Most Accurate Estimate of $1.07 versus a consensus of $1.06. The key takeaway from the article is that these quantitative signals point to an increased probability that both BX and ADC may beat their respective earnings estimates in their upcoming reports on July 24 and July 31, 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with exposure to Blackstone (BX) or Agree Realty (ADC) should be aware that recent analyst revisions, captured by the positive ESP signal, suggest a heightened probability of a near-term positive earnings surprise which could act as a catalyst for the stocks.
• Traders focused on earnings season could consider utilizing the described ESP framework as a quantitative screen to identify other potential earnings-beat candidates ahead of their reports.
• Despite the positive short-term earnings signal, it is crucial to note that both companies carry a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which implies an expectation of in-line market performance, suggesting that a potential earnings beat may not necessarily translate into sustained outperformance without other fundamental drivers.