Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels

Bitcoin rallied more than 20% this week to above $77,000 and traders on Kalshi now project it will trade around $75,000 at end-2026 (down slightly from current levels). The improved forecast follows two catalysts: a U.S. Treasury intervention to ease bond-market selloff pressure on risk assets and White House-led push for Congress to approve the Market Structure Clarity Act. The market implication is a better near-term risk backdrop, though the prediction still implies a modest pullback from current prices.

Analysis

This looks more like a liquidity/positioning squeeze than a durable re-rating. A Treasury-led easing of financial conditions can lift all high-duration risk, but that impulse is typically fast-moving and reversible; if bond-market stress cools over the next 2-4 weeks, crypto beta can mean-revert even if the policy narrative stays constructive. The fact that the market is still anchoring 2026 near the current tape implies consensus is treating this as a trading rally, not a structural scarcity bid.

The cleaner winners are the fee-takers and regulated rails, not the highest-beta coin miners. COIN should benefit from elevated turnover and renewed retail/institutional engagement over the next 1-3 months, while names like MSTR remain the purest momentum vehicle but also the most vulnerable to premium compression if BTC stalls. Miners such as MARA and CLSK are the most exposed to a sideways 6-18 month outcome: hashprice helps only if spot price keeps compounding, otherwise equity multiples can compress even with decent operating performance.

The contrarian risk is that the market may be underestimating policy optionality. If Clarity Act momentum persists and liquidity stays easier than feared, BTC can force another systematic de-risking reversal and squeeze shorts into a higher range than the prediction market implies. Falsifiers are simple: BTC holding above ~80k after the macro relief fades would argue this is not just a squeeze; a loss of ~72-73k over the next few weeks would confirm the rally was mostly reflexive.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer relative value over outright beta: short MSTR / long IBIT for 6-12 weeks to fade premium compression if BTC ends rangebound near current levels; stop if BTC sustains above ~82k or MSTR premium to NAV re-expands materially.
• Long COIN vs short MARA or CLSK for 1-3 months. Thesis: if activity stays elevated, exchanges monetize volume faster than miners monetize spot, and the short leg has more multiple downside if BTC mean-reverts.
• Trim tactical BTC beta longs into strength on IBIT or MSTR after the recent squeeze; re-add only on a confirmed consolidation above 78-80k or on a concrete legislative advance, not just headlines.
• If the Clarity Act clears committee/floor milestones, shift from hedged RV into a basket long of COIN/IBIT as the next 1-3 month catalyst; if legislative progress stalls, expect the move to fade back toward the low-70s.