Foldable smartphone market 2025: Huawei closes in on Samsung’s lead

The foldable smartphone market is projected to ship 19.8 million units in 2025, maintaining a modest 1.6% global penetration, reflecting slowed growth despite ongoing product advancements. Samsung is forecast to retain its market leadership with a 35.4% share, though its dominance is eroding as Huawei rapidly gains ground to 34.3%, particularly in China, while Honor, Lenovo, and Xiaomi also expand their presence. High prices and limited mass appeal continue to restrict foldables to a niche segment, but Apple's rumored 2026 entry is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for broader adoption and mainstream integration.

Analysis

The foldable smartphone market is showing signs of maturation, with projected 2025 shipments of 19.8 million units reflecting stalled global penetration at 1.6%, unchanged from 2024. This stability in market share suggests growth is slowing despite ongoing hardware advancements. The competitive landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with Samsung's (SSNLF) market leadership eroding substantially; its share is forecast to decline from 45.2% in 2024 to 35.4% in 2025. This compression at the top is driven by Huawei, which is solidifying its position to capture a 34.3% global share, narrowing the gap with Samsung to just over one percentage point. Concurrently, a tier of challengers is gaining momentum, with Honor's share projected to rise to 9.6%, Lenovo's (LNVGY) to 7.6%, and Xiaomi's (XIACY) to 5.1%, indicating a diversifying and increasingly competitive field. Despite these dynamics, the segment's expansion is constrained by persistent barriers, namely high price points and limited mass-market appeal, which keeps it a niche category. The primary forward-looking catalyst is the rumored 2026 entry of Apple (AAPL), whose ecosystem-driven approach is anticipated to be a potential inflection point for driving mainstream adoption.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors in Samsung (SSNLF) should monitor for strategic responses to its significant market share erosion, as its projected decline to 35.4% signals intensifying competitive pressure.
• The strong relative share growth forecast for Lenovo (LNVGY) and Xiaomi (XIACY) presents a potential opportunity for exposure to emerging leaders in a high-growth, albeit niche, market segment.
• The flat 1.6% market penetration indicates near-term headwinds for the entire foldable sector, warranting caution on overall market growth until a catalyst, such as lower price points or Apple's entry, emerges.
• Apple's (AAPL) potential 2026 entry is a key long-term event to watch, as it could significantly expand the total addressable market and reorder competitive dynamics, potentially benefiting the entire supply chain.