Stick to Walmart, not Target, ahead of earnings this week, investment chief says

Investment chief Victoria Greene offers a starkly divergent outlook for big box retailers ahead of their earnings reports, expressing bearish sentiment on Target (TGT) and bullishness on Walmart (WMT). Greene anticipates Target, whose stock is down over 22% year-to-date, will report declines in same-store sales and traffic due to a perceived lack of strategic clarity and brand identity. In contrast, she expects Walmart to post strong traffic, same-store sales, and e-commerce growth, praising its clear customer understanding and strategic execution, with its stock already rallying over 12% this year.

Analysis

Ahead of this week's quarterly earnings reports, a significant performance divergence is anticipated between big box retailers Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT). According to G Squared Private Wealth's Victoria Greene, Target, whose stock has declined over 22% year-to-date, is struggling with a lack of strategic direction and brand identity, having reportedly alienated customers across the political spectrum. This strategic ambiguity is expected to manifest as a drop in same-store sales and customer traffic, with any potential offset coming from higher prices. A prospective CEO change is viewed as a potential long-term remedy but is unlikely to impact the upcoming results. Conversely, Walmart is positioned as a dominant force with a clear strategy and deep understanding of its customer base. Its stock has rallied over 12% in 2025 on the back of effective strategies, such as its back-to-school pricing, which drives traffic. Consequently, expectations are for Walmart to report strong traffic, robust same-store sales, and continued growth in e-commerce, underscoring its competitive strength in the current retail environment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the significant operational and sentiment risks surrounding Target (TGT), as analyst expectations point to weak fundamental metrics like same-store sales and traffic ahead of its earnings release.
• Walmart (WMT) presents a potential long opportunity, given its strong year-to-date stock performance and expectations for continued market share gains driven by a clear value proposition and strategic execution.
• A pairs-trading strategy, going long WMT and short TGT, could be considered to capitalize on the starkly divergent outlooks and expected performance between the two retailers.
• Pay close attention to the traffic and same-store sales figures in both reports, as these will be the primary metrics to confirm whether Walmart is indeed capturing market share from a strategically challenged Target.