The 3 Things That Matter for Viking Therapeutics Now

Viking Therapeutics is a significant contender in the highly competitive oral weight loss drug market, with key Phase 2 data for its oral VK2735 expected in H2 2025, following promising subcutaneous trial results. This timeline places Viking in direct competition with established leaders Novo Nordisk, which anticipates an FDA decision on oral Wegovy in Q4 2025, and Eli Lilly, poised to submit its oral Orforglipron to the FDA by year-end after successful Phase 3 trials. The success of these competing oral formulations will be critical for Viking's valuation and its potential as an acquisition target within the lucrative weight loss sector.

Analysis

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) presents a high-risk, high-reward investment case centered on its dual GLP-1/GIP agonist, VK2735, for weight loss. The company's key catalyst is the Phase 2 trial data for its oral formulation of VK2735, anticipated in the second half of 2025. This is critical because an oral drug offers significant convenience advantages over injectables. The subcutaneous version of VK2735 has already shown strong Phase 2 results, with 88% of patients achieving over 10% weight loss, and is now in a lengthy Phase 3 trial with results not expected until approximately 2027. However, Viking's potential is heavily overshadowed by intense competition from established market leaders. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is significantly ahead, with an FDA decision on its oral version of Wegovy expected in Q4 2025 following successful Phase 3 trials. Similarly, Eli Lilly (LLY) has completed successful Phase 3 trials for its oral drug, Orforglipron, which demonstrated a 12.4% mean weight loss, and plans to submit it for FDA approval before the end of this year. These timelines position both competitors to potentially reach the market before or concurrently with Viking's key data release, creating a significant headwind for Viking's market entry and valuation. The investment thesis for Viking is therefore highly relative, contingent not only on its own clinical success but also on the regulatory outcomes and commercial launches of its larger, more advanced rivals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view Viking Therapeutics as a speculative, event-driven holding, with the primary catalyst being the Phase 2 data for oral VK2735 expected in H2 2025.
• Monitor the competitive landscape closely, particularly the FDA's decision on Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy in Q4 2025 and Eli Lilly's submission timeline for Orforglipron, as these events could significantly de-risk or threaten Viking's market potential.
• Consider the potential for a buyout, as strong Phase 2 oral data could make Viking an attractive acquisition target for a major pharmaceutical company, but this outcome is highly dependent on its data being competitive with offerings from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
• For investors seeking less speculative exposure to the oral weight loss drug market, initiating or adding to positions in the more advanced competitors, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, may be a more prudent approach given their proximity to regulatory approval and commercialization.