Rigel Gains 77% in 3 Months: Is This an Indication to Buy the Stock?

Rigel Pharmaceuticals (RIGL) shares have rallied 76.7% in the past three months, fueled by strong sales of its lead drug Tavalisse, which comprised over 65% of Q2 2025 net product sales and drove a 76.2% year-over-year increase. This robust performance, supplemented by Rezlidhia and newly acquired Gavreto, prompted Rigel to raise its 2025 revenue guidance to $270-$280 million and significantly increase EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026. Despite looming competition from Sanofi's recently approved ITP drug Wayrilz, Rigel’s positive pipeline progress and current valuation discount to the industry suggest continued growth potential.

Analysis

Rigel Pharmaceuticals (RIGL) is demonstrating significant commercial momentum, driven by its lead drug Tavalisse. The company reported its best-ever quarter with net product sales growing 76.2% year-over-year in Q2 2025, fueled by Tavalisse which accounted for over 65% of these sales and saw its own revenue jump 44% in the first half of 2025. This strong performance, augmented by contributions from Rezlidhia and the newly acquired Gavreto, prompted management to substantially raise its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $270-$280 million from a previous $200-$210 million. This operational success is reflected in the market, with the stock rallying 103.5% year-to-date and consensus 2025 EPS estimates more than doubling to $5.10. Despite this positive trajectory, a significant risk has emerged with the recent FDA approval of Sanofi's competing ITP drug, Wayrilz. Given Sanofi's scale and resources, Wayrilz poses a material competitive threat to Tavalisse's market share. While Rigel's pipeline, including the advancing R289 candidate for MDS, offers potential long-term value, the near-term outlook is a balance between strong current execution and this new competitive headwind. The stock's valuation, at a 2.32 P/S ratio, is slightly below the industry average but above its own five-year mean, suggesting some of the positive news is already priced in.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should recognize the strong operational execution reflected in the significantly raised 2025 revenue guidance, but be mindful that the sharp upward revision in EPS estimates to $5.10 sets a high bar for future performance.
• The primary risk to the investment thesis is the market launch of Sanofi's competing drug, Wayrilz; monitor Tavalisse's prescription data and market share in coming quarters to gauge the magnitude of this competitive impact.
• Beyond commercial sales, upcoming data from the Phase Ib R289 study in the second half of 2025 serves as a key pipeline catalyst that could de-risk the company's long-term reliance on its current product portfolio.
• While the stock's 103.5% year-to-date rally is substantial, its price-to-sales ratio remains below the industry average, which may present a continued entry point for investors confident that Rigel can defend its market share against new competition.