This Fintech Stock Had an Incredible 2025. Can Its Run Continue Into 2026?

SoFi has seen its stock surge about 80% YTD as underlying metrics show rapid user and financial momentum: members have grown to 12.6 million (from ~1M in early 2020), Q3 users were up 35% YoY, roughly 40% of Q3 product growth came from existing members, and revenue and profits have accelerated. The student-loan business—once core—remains below 2019 origination levels ($6.7B in 2019 vs $3.7B through the first three quarters of 2025) but Q3 originations rose 58% YoY, offering upside as federal repayment normalizes amid a $1.8T addressable market. SoFi’s tangible book value has climbed to just over $7.1B with a 2025 TBV uplift guidance of $2.5B (vs prior $640M), yet the shares trade at a rich ~4.7x price-to-TBV; continued gains into 2026 will hinge on sustaining high growth and weathering macro/credit risk, so investors should temper expectations despite the company’s clear progress.

Analysis

SoFi's rally (about 80% YTD) appears rooted in meaningful user and financial momentum: members expanded from roughly 1 million in early 2020 to 12.6 million by Q3, Q3 users grew 35% year-over-year, roughly 40% of Q3 product growth came from existing members, and management reports accelerating revenue and profits tied to the ecosystem cross-sell model. The student-loan franchise, long a core asset, remains below peak origination levels (nearly $6.7 billion in 2019 vs $3.7 billion through the first three quarters of 2025) but showed a 58% YoY lift in Q3 originations and benefits from broader repayment normalization within a $1.8 trillion market, absent any large-scale forgiveness. SoFi's balance-sheet metrics have improved materially: tangible book value (TBV) has risen to just over $7.1 billion and management now expects a $2.5 billion TBV increase in 2025 (up from prior $640 million), implying year-end TBV just under $7.2 billion (a 47% YoY gain). The stock, however, trades at a premium (≈4.7x price-to-TBV), so near-term upside into 2026 depends on sustained execution and a benign macro/credit backdrop given banks' sensitivity to recessions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor execution against the $2.5 billion 2025 TBV uplift and upcoming quarterly metrics as the primary catalyst for re-rating, especially Q4 TBV and loan-originations trends
• Existing holders should consider holding core exposure but trim into strength given the roughly 4.7x price-to-TBV premium versus peers and the high bar for repeat gains in 2026
• New entrants may initiate modest, size-constrained positions with a plan to average in only if growth and TBV accretion sustain, due to valuation risk
• Track student-loan origination momentum and regulatory signals (repayment policies or forgiveness talk) as discrete upside/downside catalysts, and consider hedging macro/credit risk if recession indicators worsen