These Grocery Items Have Gotten Less Expensive Since Trump Took Office

Despite President Trump’s pledge to cut grocery costs, overall consumer grocery bills remain largely elevated, but a few categories have seen notable price relief since his return to office. Dairy products — including milk, cheese, butter and non‑fat dry milk — fell in Q3 2025 on USDA forecasts for higher milk production and elevated cow inventories that could carry into 2026, while egg prices dropped to $5.12 in April 2025 from a record $6.23 the prior month as flocks recovered from the 2024 bird‑flu losses. Much of the broader relief on pantry staples reflects retailer-led markdowns (e.g., Target lowering prices on 3,000 items) and commodity supply cycles rather than sustained policy-driven disinflation, with processed and branded goods still exposed to labor, packaging, marketing and tariff pressures.

Analysis

President Trump’s pledge to lower grocery costs has not produced broad-based deflation; the article notes persistent elevated grocery bills while highlighting three categories with price relief. Dairy categories (milk, cheese, butter and non‑fat dry milk) declined in Q3 2025 after the USDA raised its milk production forecast in August 2025 and cited high cow inventories and productivity that could carry into 2026. Egg prices fell to $5.12 per dozen in April 2025 from a record $6.23 the prior month as flocks rebuilt following 2024 bird‑flu losses, representing the first month‑to‑month decline since October 2024. Retailer actions, not policy alone, are a material driver: Target publicly cut prices on 3,000 food, beverage and essential SKUs to support holiday affordability. Analysts quoted in the piece attribute pantry relief to supply cycles and retailer markdowns, while warning branded processed goods remain exposed to labor, packaging, marketing and tariff pressures, implying the observed price relief is category‑specific and potentially transient. Market signals in the summary show mixed sentiment and modest market impact, supporting a tactical, data‑driven investment stance rather than a structural call on grocery disinflation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider modestly overweighting large-format and price-competitive retailers such as TGT and DLTR on evidence that aggressive markdowns can boost traffic and basket sizes, but monitor same-store sales and margin impact closely
• Avoid extending exposure to branded processed-food manufacturers until clear, sustained declines in input costs (labor, packaging, tariffs) are visible and company-level margin guidance improves
• Use USDA milk production updates and egg supply/recovery metrics as leading indicators for dairy and egg price direction and for suppliers’ margin forecasts, and consider short-duration hedges if supply-driven price declines accelerate
• Treat current grocery price relief as tactically driven by promotions and supply cycles; favor short- to medium-term trades around promotional cadence rather than long-term reallocation of consumer staples exposure