Soybeans Posting Tuesday Losses, as October Gaps Get Filled

Soybean futures slid 10–11 cents midday, with the January contract at $10.61 1/2 (down 10 1/4c) as the market erased the China-driven rally and filled October chart gaps; the national cash bean average fell to $9.91 3/4, soymeal dropped about $0.50 to $1.20 and soy oil fell 124–126 points. Contributing factors include managed-money liquidation—CFTC data show a 15,336-contract cut to a 214,289-contract net long through Nov. 25—and ongoing Chinese state sales (323,000 MT sold, a 550,000 MT auction scheduled), while EU imports of 5.6 MMT since July 1 lag last year’s 6.5 MMT. The combination of technical selling, fund outflows and incremental Chinese availability is weighing on prices, and a delayed EPA decision on 2026 RVOs (now not expected until Q1) adds policy uncertainty for biofuel-driven soy oil demand.

Analysis

Soybean futures dropped 10–11 cents midday, with the January contract at $10.61 1/2 (down 10 1/4c) and the national cash bean average at $9.91 3/4 (down $0.10); soymeal slid about $0.50 to $1.20 and soy oil fell 124–126 points. The market has given back the China-driven rally and filled October chart gaps, signaling a technically led pullback across nearby and deferred contracts (Mar $10.71 1/4, May $10.83).

CFTC data for the week ending Nov. 25 show managed money reduced its net long by 15,336 contracts to 214,289, reinforcing that fund liquidation is amplifying price weakness. Incremental physical availability is also weighing on the complex: China sold 323,000 MT of imported beans and has a 550,000 MT auction scheduled, while EU imports of 5.6 MMT since July 1 through Dec. 14 lag last year’s 6.5 MMT.

Regulatory uncertainty adds a demand-side headwind as the EPA pushed finalization of 2026 RVOs into Q1, delaying clarity on biofuel-driven soy oil demand. Near-term price direction will hinge on weekly CFTC positioning, outcomes of Chinese state auctions, and upcoming USDA data that the market is watching for signs of tightening or further loosening of supplies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider trimming or hedging long soybean exposure in the near term given technical gap fills, a 15,336-contract managed-money reduction and active Chinese state selling
• Avoid initiating new long positions in soy oil until the EPA finalizes 2026 RVOs (now deferred to Q1) because biofuel demand visibility remains limited
• Monitor weekly CFTC reports, the 550,000 MT Chinese auction outcome and upcoming USDA releases closely and use confirmed tightening signals to selectively rebuild long positions