Soybeans Near Unchanged on Thursday, as Meal Continues Slide

Soybean futures traded largely lower on Thursday, with cash prices down, while soymeal futures hit their lowest since 2016, falling $4.70/ton, and soy oil gained 46 points. Weekly export sales for 2024/25 soybeans totaled 402,931 MT, meeting expectations, and new crop sales of 156,153 MT exceeded forecasts, including a 110,000 MT private sale to Egypt. However, soybean meal and oil sales were on the lower side of expectations, signaling a mixed demand picture. Market focus now shifts to Monday's June Acreage report, with trade anticipating 83.5 million acres planted.

Analysis

The soybean market is demonstrating bearish sentiment, with front-month futures trading 2 to 3 cents lower and the national average cash price declining to $9.77 1/4. This downward pressure is significantly influenced by the soymeal market, where futures plunged by $4.70 per ton to their lowest levels since 2016. In contrast, soy oil futures showed strength, rising 46 points, indicating a notable divergence in the product markets. The latest weekly export sales data presented a mixed demand picture: old crop soybean sales of 402,931 MT were within analyst expectations and up 42.4% from the same week last year, while new crop sales of 156,153 MT, bolstered by a 110,000 MT private sale to Egypt, exceeded forecasts. However, this was undermined by weak demand for processed products, as both soybean meal and soybean oil export sales registered at the low end of their respective estimate ranges. All eyes are now on the upcoming June Acreage report, with the trade anticipating 83.5 million acres, a figure that is largely priced in; any deviation from the 82-85 million acre estimate range could introduce significant volatility.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the stark divergence between collapsing soymeal prices and strengthening soy oil, investors should closely monitor the crush spread, as persistent weakness in meal could cap any rallies in the soybean complex despite solid raw bean export demand.
• With the June Acreage report due on Monday, traders should anticipate heightened price volatility; a planting figure that deviates significantly from the consensus 83.5 million acres could serve as a major market catalyst, warranting adjustments to risk exposure.
• The weak export sales for both soymeal and soy oil are a key headwind, so investors should scrutinize upcoming demand data for these derivative products, as a lack of recovery could signal broader weakness for soybeans.