Viking's Oral Obesity Drug Poised To Gain Ground After Eli Lilly's Orforglipron Setback: Analyst

Viking Therapeutics has commenced its Phase 2 VENTURE-Oral trial for VK2735, a daily oral weight-loss pill, with results expected in H2 2025. William Blair projects a placebo-adjusted weight loss of nearly 7% for the oral formulation, mirroring Phase 1 outcomes. This development is particularly significant as Eli Lilly's recent Phase 3 setback with its oral obesity candidate creates a strategic opening for Viking's VK2735 to become a competitive oral treatment option, building on the strong Phase 2 results of its subcutaneous counterpart which demonstrated up to 14.7% weight loss. William Blair reiterated its Outperform rating, recommending buying VKTX shares prior to the readout.

Analysis

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is strategically advancing its position in the competitive obesity drug market with the initiation of its Phase 2 VENTURE-Oral trial for VK2735, an oral formulation of its weight-loss candidate. The market's reception is positive, reflected in a 2.38% increase in VKTX stock, driven by analyst expectations and a key competitor's recent stumble. William Blair anticipates the trial, with results expected in H2 2025, will demonstrate a placebo-adjusted weight loss of nearly 7%, replicating earlier Phase 1 results. This development is particularly timely, as it coincides with a reported setback for Eli Lilly's (LLY) oral candidate, orforglipron, which faced underwhelming efficacy and adverse events in its Phase 3 trial. This creates a significant clinical opportunity for Viking to fill. The potential of the VK2735 molecule is already partially de-risked by the strong performance of its subcutaneous version, which showed up to a 13.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss in its Phase 2 study. The use of the same active ingredient for both oral and injectable forms is noted as a key advantage, potentially offering seamless treatment optionality for patients in a maintenance setting.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider accumulating a position in VKTX ahead of the anticipated H2 2025 Phase 2 oral data readout, in line with the William Blair 'Outperform' rating and a strategy to capture potential upside from a positive catalyst.
• Monitor the VENTURE-Oral trial results closely, as achieving the projected 7% placebo-adjusted weight loss is a critical validation point that could significantly de-risk the oral program and solidify its competitive stance.
• Evaluate the relative positioning of Viking against Eli Lilly, as VKTX's progress presents a direct opportunity to capture market share in the oral obesity segment following the reported clinical setbacks of its larger rival.
• Acknowledge the binary risk inherent in clinical-stage biotechnology; a failure to meet trial endpoints would introduce significant downside pressure, despite the current positive outlook.