Q2 2026 Regions Financial Corp Earnings Call
Speaker #1: This call. I would like to remind everyone that all participant phone lines have been placed on listen-only. At the end of the call, there will be a question-and-answer session.
Speaker #1: If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.
Speaker #1: I will now turn the call over to Tom Spear to begin.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Chris. Welcome to Region Q2 2026 earnings call. John and Anil will provide high-level commentary regarding our results. We ask that you review the cost center statements, included in our earnings documents, which are available in the Investor Relations section of our website.
Speaker #2: These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results, as well as forward-looking statements about region's performance. These statements speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them.
Speaker #1: Good morning. Welcome to the Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Regions Financial Corporation's quarterly Financial Corporation's quarterly earnings earnings call. My name is call.
Speaker #2: I will now turn the call over to John.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $549 million. Resulting in earnings per share of $64.
Speaker #1: you reach back with questions, please press If you reach back with questions, please press star 1 on star 1 on your telephone your telephone keypad.
Speaker #1: keypad. A confirmation phone will indicate A confirmation phone will indicate you're lined up your line is in question for questions too. 2. I will now turn the call over I will now turn the call over to to Thomas, here to Thomas, here to begin.
Speaker #1: My name is Chris, and I'll Chris, and I'll be your operator for today's be your operator for today's call. I would like to remind everyone call.
Speaker #1: I would like to remind everyone that all participants online have been that all participants online have been placed on placed on listen only. listen only.
Speaker #3: On an adjusted basis, earnings were $583 million, or 68 cents per share. We delivered adjusted, pre-tax, pre-provisioned income of $831 million, and generated an adjusted return on tangible common equity of 20%.
Speaker #1: At At the end of the call, there will be a the end of the call, there will be a question-and-answer question-and-answer session. If session.
Speaker #2: We regarding our results. We ask that ask that you review the cost-based statements you review the cost-based statements included in included in our earnings documents, which are our earnings documents, which are available available in the Investor Relations section of in the Investor Relations section of our our website.
Speaker #3: Overall, we're pleased with our performance for the Q2. Reflecting discipline execution across the franchise, and the benefits of investments we've made to position the company to deliver sound and profitable growth.
Speaker #1: begin.
Speaker #2: These materials website. These materials contain contain information regarding the use of information regarding the use of non-GAAP non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the measures and reconciliations to the GAAP GAAP result, as well as result, as well as forward-looking forward-looking statements about Regions' statements about region's performance.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Chris. Welcome Thank you, Chris. Welcome to Regions Q2 to Region Q2 2026 earnings call. 2026 earnings call. John and John and Danielle will provide high-level Neil will provide high-level commentary commentary regarding our results.
Speaker #2: performance. These statements speak only as of These statements speak only as of today, and we today, and we undertake no obligation to update undertake no obligation to update them.
Speaker #3: As we look across our footprint, we remain encouraged by the overall operating environment. Economic activity is solid, and despite ongoing uncertainty, businesses are generally well-positioned and we continue to see steady levels of investment and job growth across our markets.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Tom. And good
Speaker #3: On the consumer side, spending trends remain healthy, and customers maintain solid account balances, and liquidity buffers relative to their spending levels. With overall financial conditions, remaining stable.
Speaker #2: them. I will now turn the call over to I will now turn the call over to John.
Speaker #2: John.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Tom. And good morning, morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our everyone. We appreciate you joining our call call today. Earlier this today.
Speaker #3: Earlier this morning, morning, we reported earnings of we reported earnings of $549 $549 million. million. Resulting in earnings per share of Resulting in earnings per share of $64.
Speaker #3: This is supporting continued momentum in our core businesses. Loan growth is strengthened driven by new originations and expansion within existing client relationships. As pipelines continue to build, average deposits grew modestly, including over 1% growth in non-interest bearing deposits, so forwarded by household and operating account growth.
Speaker #3: Tangible common equity of 20%. Overall, we're pleased with our performance for Q2. Overall, we're pleased with our performance for Q2.
Speaker #3: $64. On an adjusted On an adjusted basis, earnings were basis, earnings were $583 million, or $583 million, or $68 per share. We $68 per share.
Speaker #3: We delivered adjusted pre-tax, delivered adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision income of pre-provision income of $831 million, and $831 million, and generated an adjusted return on generated an adjusted return on tangible common equity of 20%.
Speaker #3: While activity in capital markets and residential mortgage has been impacted by the higher interest rate environment, we continue to see solid performance across our other.
Speaker #3: Businesses. Including another record quarter in wealth management income. Credit performance has continued to improve with lower net charge-offs in the quarter, and reductions across business-criticized and non-performing loan categories, reflecting further progress resolving previously identified portfolios of interest.
Speaker #1: Paying solid account balances and maintaining liquidity buffers relative to their spending levels, with overall financial conditions remaining stable. This is supporting continued momentum in our core businesses.
Speaker #1: Loan growth is strengthened, driven by new originations and expansion within existing client relationships. As pipelines continue to build, average deposits grew modestly, including over 1% growth in non-interest-bearing deposits, supported by household and operating account growth.
Speaker #3: Based on these trends, we believe credit has largely normalized, and we remain committed to our discipline approach to credit risk management. Turning to our strategic priorities, we've made meaningful progress this quarter, advancing our key initiatives that are central to our long-term strategy.
Speaker #1: While activity in capital markets and residential mortgage has been impacted by the higher interest rate environment, we continue to see solid performance across our other three businesses.
Speaker #3: We're proud to once again be recognized by JD Power, as the number one regional bank in online banking satisfaction, along with a significant improvement in our mobile app ranking to number two.
Speaker #1: Including another record quarter in wealth management income. Credit performance has continued to improve, with lower net charge-offs in the quarter and reductions across business-criticized and non-performing loan categories, reflecting further progress resolving previously identified portfolios of interest.
Speaker #3: These results reflect the work we've done to enhance the client experience, deliver more intuitive digital capabilities, and make banking easier for our customers. We also reached an important milestone in our core modernization efforts, with a successful implementation of our new commercial lending platform.
Speaker #1: Based on these trends, we believe credit has largely normalized, and we remain committed to our disciplined approach to credit risk management. Turning to our strategic priorities, we made meaningful progress this quarter, advancing our key initiatives that are central to our long-term strategy.
Speaker #3: This represents a significant step forward in enhancing our technology infrastructure, improving speed to market, and elevating the experience we deliver to our clients and bankers.
Speaker #3: We're also making good progress on our core deposit transformation, with testing underway and a pilot expected later this year, keeping us on track for full conversion in 2027.
Speaker #1: We're proud to once again be recognized by J.D. Power as the number one regional bank in online banking satisfaction, along with a significant improvement in our mobile app ranking to number two.
Speaker #3: In addition, we're seeing solid results from our strategic investments across each line of business. Within our consumer bank, reskilled small business bankers have helped generate a 7% increase in year-to-date small business checking account production, versus 2024 levels, while small business balances contribute to just over 30% of the company's quarter-over-quarter growth and average non-interest bearing deposits.
Speaker #1: These results reflect the work we've done to enhance the client experience, deliver more intuitive digital capabilities, and make banking easier for our customers. We also reached an important milestone in our core modernization efforts with a successful implementation of our new commercial lending platform.
Speaker #1: This represents a significant step forward in enhancing our technology infrastructure, improving speed to market, and elevating the experience we deliver to our clients and bankers.
Speaker #3: In commercial banking, over the past 18 months, we've added more than 60 bankers, helping drive an almost 40% increase in new commercial logos through the first half of 2026.
Speaker #1: We're also making good progress on our core deposit transformation, with testing underway and a pilot expected later this year, keeping us on track for full conversion in 2027.
Speaker #3: Within wealth management, we have also seen strong momentum with advisors hired over the past 3 years, growing client assets by almost $6 billion. Finally, subsequent to Q2, we announced the acquisition of the Fraser Lanier Company, a full-service investment banking firm with strong capabilities in municipal securities.
Speaker #1: In addition, we're seeing solid results from our strategic investments across each line of business. Within our consumer bank, reskilled small business bankers have helped generate a 7% increase in year-to-date small business checking account production versus 2024 levels, while small business balances contributed just over 30% of the company's quarter-over-quarter growth in average non-interest-bearing deposits.
Speaker #3: We believe this transaction expands our capital markets platform, enhances our municipal finance expertise, and allows us to broaden the solutions we provide to the public sector and institutional clients.
Speaker #1: In commercial banking, over the past 18 months, we’ve added more than 60 bankers, helping drive an almost 40% increase in new commercial logos through the first half of 2026.
Speaker #3: Consistent with our strategy, this is a targeted investment that builds on areas where we've demonstrated strength and positions us to continue growing our capital markets business over time.
Speaker #1: Within Wealth Management, we have also seen strong momentum, with advisors hired over the past three years growing client assets by almost $6 billion. Finally, subsequent to quarter-end, we announced the acquisition of the Fraser Lanier Company, a full-service investment banking firm with strong capabilities in municipal securities.
Speaker #3: We feel good about our performance for the quarter and believe we're well-positioned to continue executing our strategic plan and deliver consistent, sustainable long-term performance.
Speaker #3: With that, I'll turn it over to Anil, to provide more detail on the quarter.
Speaker #2: Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average loans increased approximately 2% during the quarter, while ending loans grew 1%. Growth was driven by broad-based commercial and industrial lending categories, including power and utilities, manufacturing, government and public sector, and retail trade.
Speaker #1: We believe this transaction expands our capital markets platform, enhances our municipal finance expertise, and allows us to broaden the solutions we provide to the public sector and institutional clients.
Speaker #2: While off of a smaller base, investor real estate also generated solid growth, led by multifamily. This performance was supported by strong production and increased bridge financing for maturing credits.
Speaker #1: Consistent with our strategy, this is a targeted investment that builds on areas where we've demonstrated strength and positions us to continue growing our capital markets business over time.
Speaker #2: Results reflected both new client acquisition and expanded relationships with existing customers. Importantly, this growth remained very high quality with over half consisting of investment grade credits.
Speaker #1: We feel good about our performance for the quarter and believe we're well-positioned to continue executing our strategic plan and deliver consistent, sustainable, long-term performance.
Speaker #2: While utilization rates continue to improve during the quarter, the majority of growth was driven by new loan production and increased commitments. As John noted earlier, we continue to be encouraged by the overall operating environment across our footprint.
Speaker #1: With that, I'll turn it over to Anil to provide more detail on the quarter.
Speaker #2: Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average loans increased approximately 2% during the quarter, while ending loans grew 1%. Growth was driven by broad-based commercial and industrial lending categories, including power and utilities, manufacturing, government and public sector, and retail trade.
Speaker #2: Lending activity continues at a healthy pace, and loan pipelines remain strong, up roughly 15% from a year ago, and remains diversified across industries, markets, and client segments.
Speaker #2: While off a smaller base, investor real estate also generated solid growth, led by multifamily. This performance was supported by strong production and increased bridge financing for maturing credits.
Speaker #2: Consumer loan balances remained relatively stable, as new production approximated paydowns primarily in residential mortgage and home improvement financing. We continue to expect full-year average loan growth to be up low single digits versus 2025.
Speaker #2: Results reflected both new client acquisition and expanded relationships with existing customers. Importantly, this growth remained very high quality, with over half consisting of investment-grade credits.
Speaker #2: Turning to deposits, average balances increased modestly, while ending balances declined approximately 1%, reflecting normal seasonal patterns associated with tax refunds and payments. Consumer deposits continued their strong performance, as checking balances grew despite healthy underlying consumer spending trends.
Speaker #2: While utilization rates continued to improve during the quarter, the majority of growth was driven by new loan production and increased commitments. As John noted earlier, we continue to be encouraged by the overall operating environment across our footprint.
Speaker #2: Our non-interest bearing deposit mix remained in the low 30% range, consistent with our target, and reflective of the operational nature of our deposit base.
Speaker #2: Lending activity continues at a healthy pace, and loan pipelines remain strong, up roughly 15% from a year ago, and remain diversified across industries, markets, and client segments.
Speaker #2: We continue to experience a shift as deposits from CDs into money market accounts, across both consumer and wealth management segments. Driven by our intentional product management strategy.
Speaker #2: Consumer loan balances remained relatively stable, as new production approximated paydowns, primarily in residential mortgage and home improvement financing. We continue to expect full-year average loan growth to be up low single digits versus 2025.
Speaker #2: Average deposit balances grew, while total deposit costs remained controlled, supported by our strong deposit franchise and focus on customer acquisition and retention. As a result, we continue to expect 2026 average deposits to be up low single digits versus the prior year.
Speaker #2: Turning to deposits, average balances increased modestly, while ending balances declined approximately 1%, reflecting normal seasonal patterns associated with tax refunds and payments. Consumer deposits continued their strong performance, as checking balances grew despite healthy underlying consumer spending trends.
Speaker #2: Let's shift to net interest income. Net interest income increased 2% linked quarter, driven by multiple factors. As in prior quarters, favorable repricing dynamics and disciplined deposit cost management continued to provide a strong foundation for growth, with loan balance expansion further contributing to second quarter momentum.
Speaker #2: Our non-interest-bearing deposit mix remained in the low 30% range, consistent with our target and reflective of the operational nature of our deposit base. We continue to experience a shift of deposits from CDs into money market accounts across both consumer and wealth management segments.
Speaker #2: The net interest margin of 3.66% continued to evidence our profitability and deposit funding advantage. During the second quarter, interest bearing deposit costs fell 3 basis points to 1.69%.
Speaker #2: Driven by our intentional product management strategy, average deposit balances grew, while total deposit costs remained controlled. This was supported by our strong deposit franchise and focus on customer acquisition and retention.
Speaker #2: We anticipate a largely stable deposit cost over the second half of the year, assuming a constant Fed funds rate. As expected, over the entire following rate cycle, the interest bearing deposit beta has been 37%.
Speaker #2: As a result, we continue to expect 2026 average deposits to be up low single digits versus the prior year. Let's shift to net interest income.
Speaker #2: To the extent the Fed moves rates, we would expect a similar mid-30s beta resulting in a neutral interest rate risk position. Low levels of unsecured borrowings will continue to provide future funding flexibility, as evidenced this quarter, while helping insulate deposits from potential repricing risk in a higher rate environment.
Speaker #2: Net interest income increased 2% linked quarter, driven by multiple factors. As in prior quarters, favorable repricing dynamics and disciplined deposit cost management continued to provide a strong foundation for growth, with loan balance expansion further contributing to second-quarter momentum.
Speaker #2: Net interest income also benefited from fixed rate asset turnover, with elevated long-term rates supporting pricing on new term loans and securities, along with the securities repositioning transaction executed earlier in the quarter.
Speaker #2: The net interest margin of 3.66% continued to evidence our profitability and deposit funding advantage. During the second quarter, interest-bearing deposit costs fell 3 basis points to 1.69%.
Speaker #2: At current rate levels, we would expect balance sheet repricing to support margin expansion over multiple years. Third quarter net interest income is expected to increase approximately 2%, progressing toward the middle of our 2.5 to 4% full-year outlook.
Speaker #2: We anticipate a largely stable deposit cost over the second half of the year, assuming a constant Fed funds rate. As expected, over the entire following rate cycle, the interest-bearing deposit beta has been 37%.
Speaker #2: To the extent the Fed moves rates, we would expect a similar mid-30s beta, resulting in a neutral interest rate risk position. Low levels of unsecured borrowings will continue to provide future funding flexibility, as evidenced this quarter, while helping insulate deposits from potential repricing risk in a higher rate environment.
Speaker #2: And based on our current expectations for loan growth, we expect our net interest margin to exit the year at approximately 3.7%. The interest rate environment is highly uncertain, with multiple competing forces influencing current and expected levels.
Speaker #2: Our balance sheet is positioned well for the environment, indifferent to short-term rate movements, with the ability to benefit from elevated long-term rates. Hedging activity in the quarter was largely focused on extending interest rate protection.
Speaker #2: Net interest income also benefited from fixed-rate asset turnover, with elevated long-term rates supporting pricing on new term loans and securities, along with the securities repositioning transaction executed earlier in the quarter.
Speaker #2: Now let's turn to fee revenue performance for the quarter. Adjusted non-interest income increased 7% on a linked quarter basis, as growth in several core fee categories was partially offset by lower bank-owned life insurance and commercial credit fees.
Speaker #2: At current rate levels, we would expect balance sheet repricing to support margin expansion over multiple years. Third-quarter net interest income is expected to increase approximately 2%, progressing toward the middle of our 2.5% to 4% full-year outlook.
Speaker #2: Wealth management income increased 6% and delivered another record quarter, driven by higher production and favorable market conditions. This business continues to be a consistent contributor to fee revenue growth.
Speaker #2: And based on our current expectations for loan growth, we expect our net interest margin to exit the year at approximately 3.7%. The interest rate environment is highly uncertain, with multiple competing forces influencing current and expected levels.
Speaker #2: Card and ATM fees increased 8%, driven primarily by seasonally higher transaction volumes. Market value adjustments on employee benefit assets increased 29 million dollars during the quarter.
Speaker #2: Our balance sheet is well-positioned for the environment—indifferent to short-term rate movements—and has the ability to benefit from elevated long-term rates. Hedging activity in the quarter was largely focused on extending interest rate protection.
Speaker #2: As a reminder, these market value adjustments are largely offset within salaries and benefits expense. Capital markets income excluding CVA increased modestly compared to the prior quarter, as improvements in loan syndications, M&A advisory fees, and real estate capital markets were offset by lower commercial swap income.
Speaker #2: Now let's turn to fee revenue performance for the quarter. Adjusted non-interest income increased 7% on a linked-quarter basis, as growth in several core fee categories was partially offset by lower bank-owned life insurance and commercial credit fees.
Speaker #2: As John mentioned earlier, higher long-term interest rates have impacted overall capital markets income, however, we continue to expect quarterly revenue to increase within our 90 to 105 million dollar range, trending towards a lower end of the range in the third quarter, and moving higher thereafter.
Speaker #2: Wealth management income increased 6% and delivered another record quarter, driven by higher production and favorable market conditions. This business continues to be a consistent contributor to fee revenue growth.
Speaker #2: For full-year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted non-interest income to grow between 3 and 5 percent versus 2025. Based on our performance through the first half of the year, we currently expect results to trend toward the lower end of that range.
Speaker #2: Card and ATM fees increased 8%, driven primarily by seasonally higher transaction volumes. Market value adjustments on employee benefit assets increased $29 million during the quarter.
Speaker #2: As a reminder, these market value adjustments are largely offset within salaries and benefits expense. Capital markets income, excluding CVA, increased modestly compared to the prior quarter, as improvements in loan syndications, M&A advisory fees, and real estate capital markets were offset by lower commercial swap income.
Speaker #2: Let's move on to non-interest expense. Adjusted non-interest expense increased 4% compared to the prior quarter, driven primarily by higher salaries and benefits. Salaries and benefits increased 6%, attributable primarily to higher revenue base incentives, the impact of a full quarter of merit, and expenses offsetting the positive employee benefit asset valuation adjustments.
Speaker #2: As John mentioned earlier, higher long-term interest rates have impacted overall capital markets income. However, we continue to expect quarterly revenue to increase within our $90 to $105 million range, trending towards the lower end of the range in the third quarter and moving higher thereafter.
Speaker #2: As we continue to invest in the franchise to support long-term growth, we remain focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to expense management. For full-year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted non-interest expense to be up between 1.5 and 3.5 percent, and we expect to deliver full-year adjusted positive operating leverage.
Speaker #2: For full-year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted non-interest income to grow between 3% and 5% versus 2025. Based on our performance through the first half of the year, we currently expect results to trend toward the lower end of that range.
Speaker #2: Regarding asset quality, annualized net charge offset as a percentage of average loans declined 12 basis points to 42 basis points. Results during the quarter continued to reflect progress on previously identified portfolios of interest, that have been reserved for in prior periods.
Speaker #2: Let's move on to non-interest expense. Adjusted non-interest expense increased 4% compared to the prior quarter, driven primarily by higher salaries and benefits. Salaries and benefits increased 6%, attributable primarily to higher revenue-based incentives, the impact of a full quarter of merit, and expenses offsetting the positive employee benefit asset valuation adjustments.
Speaker #2: Business services criticized and non-performing loans both declined during the quarter, with the business services criticized ratio declining 14 basis points to 5.01%, and the non-performing loan ratio declining 4 basis points to 67 basis points.
Speaker #2: As we continue to invest in the franchise to support long-term growth, we remain focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to expense management. For full-year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted non-interest expense to be up between 1.5% and 3.5%, and we expect to deliver full-year adjusted positive operating leverage.
Speaker #2: The allowance for credit losses declined 34 million dollars during the quarter. The reduction was driven primarily by continued resolution of previously reserved for charge offs, partially offset by reserved bills related to high-quality loan growth.
Speaker #2: As a result, the allowance for credit losses ratio declined to 1.63%. We continue to expect full-year 2026 net charge offs to be between 40 and 50 basis points.
Speaker #2: Regarding asset quality, annualized net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans declined 12 basis points to 42 basis points. Results during the quarter continue to reflect progress on previously identified portfolios of interest that have been reserved for in prior periods.
Speaker #2: Let's turn to capital and liquidity. We ended the quarter with an estimated common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.7%, while executing 59 million dollars in share repurchases and paying 226 million dollars in common dividends during the quarter.
Speaker #2: Business services criticized and non-performing loans both declined during the quarter, with the business services criticized ratio declining 14 basis points to 5.01%, and the non-performing loan ratio declining 4 basis points to 67 basis points.
Speaker #2: Earlier this week, the board of directors approved an increase in our quarterly common stock dividend to 30 cents per share, representing a 13% increase from the prior quarter, and continuing our strong track record of returning capital to shareholders.
Speaker #2: The allowance for credit losses declined $34 million during the quarter. The reduction was driven primarily by continued resolution of previously reserved-for charge-offs, partially offset by reserve builds related to high-quality loan growth.
Speaker #2: Over the last 10 years, we've increased our dividend at a 16% compound annual growth rate ranking within the top quartile among our peer set.
Speaker #2: As a result, the allowance for credit losses ratio declined to 1.63%. We continue to expect full-year 2026 net charge-offs to be between 40 and 50 basis points.
Speaker #2: In addition, we recently received our 2026 supervisory capital stress test results from the Federal Reserve, regions delivered outstanding performance generating the highest level of pre-tax, pre-provision net revenue as a percentage of average assets, among our defined regional bank peer group, reflecting the strength of our core earnings profile.
Speaker #2: Let's turn to capital and liquidity. We ended the quarter with an estimated Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.7%, while executing $59 million in share repurchases and paying $226 million in common dividends during the quarter.
Speaker #2: Importantly, our pre-provision revenue fully offset projected credit losses over the nine-quarter stress 101.4%. The second highest within that same peer group. As previously communicated by the Federal Reserve, our stress capital buffer will remain at the regulatory floor of 2.5%.
Speaker #2: Earlier this week, the board of directors approved an increase in our quarterly common stock dividend to $0.30 per share, representing a 13% increase from the prior quarter and continuing our strong track record of returning capital to shareholders.
Speaker #2: Over the last 10 years, we've increased our dividend at a 16% compound annual growth rate, ranking within the top quartile among our peer set.
Speaker #2: Overall, these results reinforce the resilience of our earnings profile, balance sheet, and capital position under severely adverse conditions. Likewise, liquidity remains stable and robust, with total liquidity sources well above required levels and ample capacity to support future loan growth.
Speaker #2: In addition, we recently received our 2026 Supervisory Capital Stress Test results from the Federal Reserve. Regions delivered outstanding performance, generating the highest level of pre-tax pre-provision net revenue as a percentage of average assets among our defined regional bank peer group, reflecting the strength of our core earnings profile.
Speaker #2: Including the impact of AOCI, our CET1 ratio is estimated at approximately 9.5%, which remains within our targeted operating range, of 9.25 to 9.75 percent.
Speaker #2: Importantly, our pre-provision revenue fully offset projected credit losses over the nine-quarter stress horizon, with a coverage ratio of 101.4%, the second highest within that same peer group.
Speaker #2: Our capital priorities remain unchanged, and we expect to continue managing capital within this range providing flexibility to support growth, navigate evolving regulatory requirements, and return capital to shareholders.
Speaker #2: As previously communicated by the Federal Reserve, our stress capital buffer will remain at the regulatory floor of 2.5%. Overall, these results reinforce the resilience of our earnings profile, balance sheet, and capital position under severely adverse conditions.
Speaker #2: We're pleased with our performance this quarter and believe we're a well-positioned to continue to deliver strong results, but that will open the line for your questions.
Speaker #1: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad.
Speaker #2: Likewise, liquidity remains stable and robust, with total liquidity sources well above required levels and ample capacity to support future loan growth. Including the impact of AOCI, our CET1 ratio is estimated at approximately 9.5%, which remains within our targeted operating range of 9.25% to 9.75%.
Speaker #1: A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue.
Speaker #1: Please hold while we compile the Q&A roster. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #2: Our capital priorities remain unchanged, and we expect to continue managing capital within this range, providing flexibility to support growth, navigate evolving regulatory requirements, and return capital to shareholders.
Speaker #3: Good morning, Ken.
Speaker #2: Good morning, Ken.
Speaker #3: Hi. Good morning. This is Mokesha jumping in for Ken. Could you talk about the operating leverage expectations for this year? Just given the first half feed trends or tracking towards the lower end of the guide?
Speaker #2: We're pleased with our performance this quarter and believe we're well positioned to continue to deliver strong results. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
Speaker #1: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker #2: Sure. We're glad to. So just to remind everyone of our guide, so for net interest income, we expect to grow that at 2.5 to 4 percent.
Speaker #2: Non-interest revenue, 3 to 5 percent, and we're pointing to the low end of the range. And then for non-interest expense, 1.5 to 3.5 percent.
Speaker #1: A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press *2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue.
Speaker #2: So if you put all that together, that will generate for you positive operating leverage. When you think about the math in terms of where we are mid-year versus where we expect to perform in the second half of the year, I would look at the year-over-year comparables.
Speaker #1: Please hold while we compile the Q&A roster. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Ten Yue with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #2: There are some kind of relatively unfavorable comparables, if you will, just from a pure math standpoint in the first half of the year. But we're confident as we look in the second half of the year, particularly when it comes to revenue and our expectations for where we expect to grow revenue, that we'll be able to deliver positive operating leverage as we continue to focus on good expense management as we believe we have for the first half of the year.
Speaker #3: Morning, Ken.
Speaker #2: Morning, Ken.
Speaker #3: Hi, good morning. This is Mokesha, jumping in for Ken. Could you talk about the operating leverage expectations for this year, just given the first half fee trends are tracking towards the lower end of the guide?
Speaker #2: Sure, we're glad to. Just to remind everyone of our guide: for net interest income, we expect to grow that at 2.5% to 4%.
Speaker #3: Okay. Great. Thanks for that. And in terms of loan growth, what are you seeing out there? Just talk us through the dynamics in terms of demand from clients and also just talk through the loan spread commentary or trends that you've been seeing.
Speaker #2: Non-interest revenue: 3 to 5 percent, and we're pointing to the low end of the range. And then for non-interest expense, 1.5 to 3.5 percent.
Speaker #2: So if you put all that together, that will generate for you positive operating leverage. When you think about the math in terms of where we are mid-year versus where we expect to perform in the second half of the year, I would look at the year-over-year comparables.
Speaker #2: Just maybe I'll comment broadly about the environment. It's constructive, very good. We feel like businesses are well-positioned and there is broad-based demand across industry sectors and across the geographies we bank.
Speaker #2: There are some relatively unfavorable comparables, if you will, just from a pure math standpoint in the first half of the year. But we're confident as we look into the second half of the year, particularly when it comes to revenue and our expectations for where we expect to grow revenue, that we'll be able to deliver positive operating leverage as we continue to focus on good expense management, as we believe we have for the first half of the year.
Speaker #2: We're seeing continued growth in pipelines. And again, that is generally across the business. About 100 basis point increase in line utilization over the quarter.
Speaker #2: Which again reflects I think ongoing investment. There's good job growth. Consumers feel confident as well. They're deposit balances have remained consistent with historic levels.
Speaker #3: Okay, great. Thanks for that. And in terms of loan growth, what do you see out there? Just talk us through the dynamics in terms of demand from clients, and also just talk through the loan spread commentary or trends that you've been seeing.
Speaker #2: Spending is up. And so I'd say generally we feel good about the prospects for continued loan growth and our ability to meet our targets for the year.
Speaker #2: I'm going to comment on spread.
Speaker #3: Sure. Glad to. And just for the quarter on loan That's an improvement over what we saw in the first quarter. So if we really break it into two buckets, about half of our loan growth this quarter was an investment-grade credits.
Speaker #2: Maybe I'll comment broadly about the environment. It's constructive—very good. We feel like businesses are well-positioned, and there is broad-based demand across industry sectors and across the geographies we bank.
Speaker #3: So as you'd expect, those have tighter spreads reflecting the better credit quality of those credits. The other half was in good middle market lending where we're getting good returns on the spreads we're seeing in that business.
Speaker #2: We're seeing continued growth in pipelines, and again, that is generally across the business. We saw about a 100 basis point increase in line utilization over the quarter.
Speaker #2: Which again reflects, I think, ongoing investment. There's good job growth. Consumers feel confident as well. Their deposit balances have remained consistent with historic levels.
Speaker #3: I'd say broadly speaking, the market is competitive. But our competition's remaining rational. We're staying disciplined to good returns on what we're putting on our balance sheet.
Speaker #3: But we did talk a bit about tightening credit spreads the last quarter. We saw that this quarter to a lesser degree, and you see that in our loan yields being relatively flat quarter over quarter.
Speaker #2: Spending is up, and so I'd say, generally, we feel good about the prospects for continued loan growth and our ability to meet our targets for the year.
Speaker #2: I'm going to comment on spread.
Speaker #3: Great. Thanks, guys.
Speaker #3: Sure. Glad to. And just for the quarter, our loan yields were down one basis point. That's an improvement over what we saw in the first quarter.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: So, if we really break it into two buckets, about half of our loan growth this quarter was in investment-grade credits. As you'd expect, those have tighter spreads, reflecting the better credit quality of those credits.
Speaker #3: Hey, Ryan.
Speaker #2: Hey, good morning, guys. Anil, you noted that fixed-rate asset repricing should support the margin over multiple years. I know the bank historically talked about a 360 to 390 NIM over time.
Speaker #3: The other half was in good middle-market lending, where we're getting good returns on the spreads we're seeing in that business. I'd say, broadly speaking, the market is competitive.
Speaker #2: I guess based on the current environment, where do you see the margin going over the medium term? And what are the key drivers of that in this rate environment?
Speaker #3: But our competition's remaining rational. We're staying disciplined to good returns on what we're putting on our balance sheet. But we did talk a bit about tightening credit spreads last quarter.
Speaker #2: Thank you. And I have a follow-up.
Speaker #3: Sure. Yeah. So we exited the quarter with a 366 margin, down a basis point. When we look out to the third quarter, we expect to be flat to slightly up.
Speaker #3: We saw that this quarter, to a lesser degree. And you see that in our loan yields being relatively flat quarter over quarter. Great, thanks, guys.
Speaker #3: And so the key drivers there is we'll have, as you mentioned, fixed asset turnover again. So just remind everyone, we have about $3 billion we expect to receive 75 to 100 basis points of a pickup in that repricing.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: We also have a hedge rate increase of about 7 basis points. You can see that on slide 16 of our presentation. So that'll benefit the margin.
Speaker #3: Hey, Ryan.
Speaker #2: Hey, good morning, guys. Anil, you noted that fixed-rate asset repricing should support the margin over multiple years. I know the bank historically talked about a 3.60% to 3.90% NIM over time.
Speaker #3: Then we have one additional day in the quarter, which will impact the margin. In the third quarter. And from there, we expect to continue to grow into the fourth quarter.
Speaker #2: I guess, based on the current environment, where do you see the margin going over the medium term, and what are the key drivers of that in this rate environment?
Speaker #3: We'll see another bit of fixed-rate turnover in the fourth quarter. Then just a reminder, we also have a dividend on our HR assets that will occur in the fourth quarter as well.
Speaker #2: Thank you. And I have a follow-up.
Speaker #3: Sure. Yeah. So, we exited the quarter with a 3.66% margin, down a basis point. When we look out to the third quarter, we expect it to be flat to slightly up.
Speaker #3: That'll get us to the 370, approximately 370 that we guided to. The pace of loan growth will be a dependent in terms of where we ultimately exit the quarter.
Speaker #3: And so, the key driver there is, as you mentioned, fixed asset turnover again. Just to remind everyone, we have about $3 billion, and we expect to receive 75 to 100 basis points of a pickup in that repricing.
Speaker #3: But we're confident in getting to that 370 level as we exit the year.
Speaker #2: Gotcha. And I guess maybe as a follow-up, Anil, so the buyback slowed a bit this quarter. I know that you were in the lower part of the range.
Speaker #3: We also have a hedge rate increase of about 7 basis points. You can see that on slide 16 of our presentation, so that'll benefit the margin.
Speaker #2: You may have used this quarter to catch up a little bit. And you also had the restructuring. But as you look forward, based on John's comments before regarding loan growth, what are your expectations for buyback from here?
Speaker #3: Then we have one additional day in the quarter, which will impact the margin in the third quarter. From there, we expect to continue to grow into the fourth quarter.
Speaker #2: Can we see it move back to the higher levels where you had been operating at? Thank you.
Speaker #3: We'll see another bit of fixed-rate turnover in the fourth quarter. Then, just a reminder, we also have a dividend on our HR assets that will occur in the fourth quarter as well.
Speaker #3: Yeah. And you alluded to it. So we exited last quarter with a common equity tier one inclusive of ASCI of 9.4%. So that increased about 10 basis points.
Speaker #3: That'll get us to the $370, approximately $370 that we guided to. The pace of loan growth will be a dependent in terms of where we ultimately exit the quarter.
Speaker #3: So that's called 125 million dollars of share repurchases just there. So each quarter, we'll generate between 45 to 50 basis points of capital. Dividend will be it was 18 basis points this quarter based upon our new board-approved dividend.
Speaker #3: But we're confident in getting to that 370 level as we exit the year.
Speaker #3: That'll tick up a bit to 20 basis points. To your point, we'll always focus on growing good quality loans. We saw nice growth this quarter.
Speaker #2: Gotcha. And I guess maybe as a follow-up, Anil: the buyback slowed a bit this quarter. I know you were in the lower part of the range.
Speaker #3: And we expect to see that into the future. But given where we are at 9.5% in terms of the Basel III common equity tier one ratio, we would expect share buybacks in the third quarter to pick up a bit given we're kind of at the midpoint of our range.
Speaker #2: You may have used this quarter to catch up a little bit, and you also had the restructuring. But as you look forward, based on John's comments before regarding loan growth, what are your expectations for buyback from here?
Speaker #2: Can we expect it to move back to the higher levels where you had been operating at? Thank you.
Speaker #2: Got it. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah, you alluded to it. We exited last quarter with a common equity Tier 1, inclusive of AOCI, of 9.4%. That increased about 10 basis points.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #2: Good morning, John.
Speaker #4: Good morning. Morning. On the I appreciate the color on the loan spreads. On the deposit pricing side, maybe if you could just give us an update on what you're seeing there.
Speaker #3: So that's called $125 million of share repurchases just there. So, each quarter, we'll generate between 45 to 50 basis points of capital. The dividend will be—it was 18 basis points this quarter, based upon our new board-approved dividend.
Speaker #4: We're hearing quite a bit about the competitive environment, particularly in the Southeast, and particularly coming from banks expanding more actively in the Southeast. So I want to get what you're seeing there on the ground in terms of pricing pressure.
Speaker #3: That'll tick up a bit, to 20 basis points. To your point, we'll always focus on growing good quality loans. We saw nice growth this quarter.
Speaker #3: And what we expect to see is that into the future. But given where we are at 9.5% in terms of the Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio, we would expect share buybacks in the third quarter to pick up a bit, given we're kind of at the midpoint of our range.
Speaker #3: Sure. I'd remind you that this competitive pressure has existed for 12 to 18 months. So what we're seeing today is much of what we've seen historically.
Speaker #3: We're very proud of how we've defended our deposit base and our deposit costs as expected. Our interest-bearing deposit costs declined three basis points to 1.69%.
Speaker #2: Got it. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: We had the benefit of about $5 billion of CD maturities this quarter in the second quarter. We were able to pick up about 30 basis points on those.
Speaker #3: Good morning, John.
Speaker #4: Good morning. Morning. I appreciate the color on the loan spreads. On the deposit pricing side, maybe if you could just give us an update on what you're seeing there.
Speaker #3: Going forward, based upon our performance, we expect deposit costs to stay approximately where they are now. We do have continuing CD maturities, but where we're putting those back on is about an equivalent rate.
Speaker #4: We're hearing quite a bit about the competitive environment, particularly in the Southeast, and particularly from banks expanding more actively in the Southeast. So, I want to get your perspective on what you're seeing there on the ground in terms of pricing pressure.
Speaker #3: But this is a place where we're really proud of our overall performance. This is not something that we just accidentally have this is a phenomenal asset that we have, which is our deposit base.
Speaker #3: Sure. I'd remind you that this competitive pressure has existed for 12 to 18 months. So, what we're seeing today is much of what we've seen historically.
Speaker #3: And we spent a lot of time making sure that we're making the right investments in terms of having the right products and services for our customers, having great branch locations for them to come into.
Speaker #3: We're very proud of how we've defended our deposit base and our deposit costs as expected. Our interest-bearing deposit costs declined three basis points to 1.69%.
Speaker #3: Having great bankers to deliver those products and services. And importantly, we spent a lot of time investing in great data and analytics to really make sure we understand the nature of our deposit base, how we expect them to perform.
Speaker #3: We had the benefit of about $5 billion of CD maturities this quarter. In the second quarter, we were able to pick up about 30 basis points on those.
Speaker #3: And that gives us confidence both to take risk management strategies around that, but also to be confident in our guidance to you all in terms of how we expect deposit costs to perform over time.
Speaker #3: Going forward, based upon our performance, we expect deposit costs to stay approximately where they are now. We do have continuing CD maturities, but where we're putting those back on is at about an equivalent rate.
Speaker #3: And so this is something that we have a great deal of confidence in. And it's something as we look forward, we're confident that we'll be able to deliver the deposit costs that we've guided you all towards because of the investments we've made and how well we understand the nature of our deposit base.
Speaker #3: But this is a place where we're really proud of our overall performance. This is not something that we just accidentally have—this is a phenomenal asset that we have, which is our deposit base.
Speaker #3: And we spent a lot of time making sure that we're making the right investments in terms of having the right products and services for our customers, and having great branch locations for them to come into.
Speaker #4: Great. Okay. Thanks for that, Neil. And then separately, just on the credit backdrop, wanted to see if you're seeing any signs of incremental stress.
Speaker #4: I know in the past few quarters, you've been working through some of the portfolios of interest. And you took a few bumps on charge off as you worked some things out.
Speaker #3: Having great bankers to deliver those products and services. And, importantly, we spent a lot of time investing in great data and analytics to really make sure we understand the nature of our deposit base and how we expect them to perform.
Speaker #4: But you saw good improvement in your losses this quarter. So any newer developments, any update there or incremental work out that you're working on at this point?
Speaker #3: And that gives us confidence both to take risk management strategies around that, but also to be confident in our guidance to you all in terms of how we expect deposit costs to perform over time.
Speaker #3: Yeah. John, thanks for the question. Obviously, credit has continued to improve. And we would say normalized as we've seen non-performing loans continue to come down the level of criticized loans coming down.
Speaker #3: And so, this is something that we have a great deal of confidence in. And it's something—as we look forward—we're confident that we'll be able to deliver the deposit costs that we've guided you all toward because of the investments we've made and how well we understand the nature of our deposit base.
Speaker #3: The business office portfolio is down 35% year over year. Trucking down 25% year over year. And communications an area where we've had some challenges down 50% year over year.
Speaker #4: Great. Okay. Thanks for that, Anil. And then, separately, just on the credit backdrop, I wanted to see if you're getting signs of incremental stress. I know in the past few quarters, you've been working through some of the portfolios of interest.
Speaker #3: That's about 1.3 billion dollars in outstandings in those three portfolios of interest that have exited the bank. And that certainly has helped as we think about credit quality.
Speaker #4: And you took a few bumps on charge-offs as you worked some things out, but you saw good improvement in your losses this quarter.
Speaker #3: And those portfolios are continuing to improve. We are seeing a little softness in the multifamily in a couple of markets we're following, but nothing to be particularly concerned of.
Speaker #4: So, any newer developments, any update there or incremental work that you're working on at this point?
Speaker #3: And I'd say otherwise, we feel really good about credit. And the positioning of our portfolio and expect it to perform in a normal sort of way as the next few quarters develop.
Speaker #3: Yeah, John, thanks for the question. Obviously, credit has continued to improve, and we would say normalized, as we've seen non-performing loans continue to come down and the level of criticized loans coming down.
Speaker #3: The business office portfolio is down 35% year over year. Trucking is down 25% year over year. Communications is an area where we've had some challenges, down 50% year over year.
Speaker #4: And just related to that, if I can ask one more. On the reserve front, you released about six basis points on the reserve ratio this quarter.
Speaker #4: How should we think about the outlook from here?
Speaker #3: Yeah. I think we've been talking about getting back to an equivalent Cecil day one, which today is basically it's 162. So pretty much where we're at now.
Speaker #3: That's about $1.3 billion in outstandings in those three portfolios of interest that have exited the bank. That certainly has helped as we think about credit quality, and those portfolios are continuing to improve.
Speaker #3: As you look forward, there's a couple of things that we'll keep our eye on. There is still some uncertainty in the market right now.
Speaker #3: And so you'd expect we are keeping some reserves back just for that. We'll continue to monitor credit performance. We had a great quarter this year.
Speaker #3: We are seeing a little softness in the multifamily sector in a couple of markets we're following, but nothing to be particularly concerned about. And I'd say otherwise, we feel really good about credit and the positioning of our portfolio, and expect it to perform in a normal sort of way as the next few quarters develop.
Speaker #3: We're expecting that to continue into the future. We talked a lot about the originations that we're putting on our balance sheet about half of them being investment grade.
Speaker #3: And so we'll continue to track that. But right now, we think the 163 coverage ratio that we have right now is indicative of where we'd expect to be absent new information over the next several quarters.
Speaker #4: And just related to that, if I can ask one more. On the reserve front, you released about six basis points on the reserve ratio this quarter.
Speaker #3: And we'll continue to monitor both the macroeconomic uncertainties that are still out there and also our overall credit trends as we go through time.
Speaker #4: How should we think about the outlook from here?
Speaker #3: Yeah. I think we've been talking about getting back to an equivalent CECL day one, which today is basically… it's $162, so pretty much where we're at now.
Speaker #4: Great. Thanks so much.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: As we look forward, there are a couple of things that we'll keep our eye on. There is still some uncertainty in the market right now.
Speaker #3: Good morning.
Speaker #5: Hey, good morning. So it looks like you saw some nice consumer deposit growth in the quarter. Corporate deposits were down slightly. Is that just seasonality?
Speaker #3: And so, you'd expect we are keeping some reserves back just for that. We'll continue to monitor credit performance, and we had a great quarter this year.
Speaker #3: We're expecting that to continue into the future. We talked a lot about the originations that we're putting on our balance sheet, about half of them being investment grade.
Speaker #5: Or are you seeing some element of corporates investing in their own business, spending more of their own cash because when I look at which is when I look at the loan side as well, right?
Speaker #3: And so, we'll continue to track that. But right now, we think the 1.63 coverage ratio that we have is indicative of where we'd expect to be, absent new information, over the next several quarters.
Speaker #5: The utilization rate is up quite nicely.
Speaker #3: A little bit of both. I'd say predominantly seasonality. But we are seeing customers use some of their excess cash balances. And similarly to your point, we're also seeing customers use their lines of credit a little more than they have been with line utilization up 100 basis points, which is positive.
Speaker #3: And we'll continue to monitor both the macroeconomic uncertainties that are still out there, and also our overall credit trends as we go through time.
Speaker #4: Great. Thanks so much.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #5: Okay. It's a trend you expect to continue.
Speaker #3: Good morning.
Speaker #5: Hey, good morning. So, it looks like you saw some nice consumer deposit growth in the quarter. Corporate deposits were down slightly. Is that just seasonality?
Speaker #3: Say it again.
Speaker #5: That's a trend you expect will continue through this year.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Yes, it is.
Speaker #5: Got it. Okay. And then if I look at slide six and I look at the range around the NII assumption, on the lower end, am I reading it right?
Speaker #5: Or are you seeing some element of corporates investing in their own business, spending more of their own cash? Because when I look at which is when I look at the loan side as well, right, like the utilization rate is up quite nicely.
Speaker #5: If all of this happens, the tenure goes below 4%, asset spread tighten, lower end deposit balances decline, etc. You would still get to that low end of the NII guide?
Speaker #3: A little bit of both. I'd say predominantly seasonality, but we are seeing customers use some of their excess cash balances. And similarly, to your point, we're also seeing customers use their lines of credit a little more than they have been, with line utilization up 100 basis points, which is positive.
Speaker #3: Yes. You're reading that correctly.
Speaker #5: All right. Perfect. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Canterfetch Gerald. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #5: Okay. It's a trend you expect to continue.
Speaker #6: Good morning.
Speaker #3: I'm sorry. Say that again.
Speaker #5: That's a trend you expect will continue through this year.
Speaker #3: Good morning, Dave.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Yes, it is.
Speaker #1: Mr. Rochester, your line is live.
Speaker #5: Got it. Okay. And then if I look at slide six and I look at the range around the NII assumptions, on the lower end, am I reading it right?
Speaker #6: Can you hear me, okay? Sorry about that.
Speaker #3: Yes. Yep.
Speaker #6: Great. Just back on loan growth. It looks like even if average loans are flat in Q3 and Q4 on a quarter-over-quarter basis, that you land near the middle of that average loan growth guide range for the low single digits.
Speaker #5: If all of this happens—the tenure goes below 4%, asset spreads tighten, lower-end deposit balances decline, etc.—you would still get to that low end of the NII, guys?
Speaker #6: So just if we can just talk about maybe your outlook for the back half of the year. With pipelines stronger now, are you thinking that that back half could actually exceed growth in the first half?
Speaker #3: Yes. You're reading that correctly.
Speaker #6: How are you thinking about that?
Speaker #5: All right. Perfect. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah. We had really good loan growth in the first quarter. Good growth in the second quarter as well, but really started off strong. As we talked about before, some of that withdrawals that we saw late in the quarter so we'd be cautious to extend too much of that into the second half of the year.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: Good morning. Good morning. Dave.
Speaker #3: I think what we delivered this quarter we feel good about in terms of closer to being a run rate. But I wouldn't just extrapolate out what we've seen the first half as potentially occurring in the second half, given we did see some higher draws in the first quarter that may not occur as we go into the second half of the year.
Speaker #1: Mr. Rochester, your line is live.
Speaker #3: Can you hear me okay? Sir? Yes. Yep, great. Just back on loan growth: it looks like even if average loans are flat in Q3, Q2, and Q4 on a quarter-over-quarter basis, you land near the middle of that average loan growth guide range for the low single digits.
Speaker #6: Yeah. Okay. And then just given the reduction in the more problematic portfolios that you just talked about earlier, despite the softness that you mentioned in multifamily, as you look ahead beyond some maybe incremental improvement you could see in the back half of this year, are you thinking that maybe that net charge-off range could step down to something that's more of a sub-40 basis points level, assuming the economy remains resilient?
Speaker #3: So, just, if we can, let's talk about maybe your outlook for the back half of the year. With pipelines stronger now, are you thinking that the back half could actually exceed growth in the first half?
Speaker #3: How are you thinking about that?
Speaker #6: We had really good loan growth in the first quarter, and good growth in the second quarter as well, but it really started off strong. As we talked about before, some of that was due to draws that we saw late in the quarter.
Speaker #3: No. We're continuing to debate and talk about that just based upon the composition of our portfolio, which has changed a little over the last 12 to 24 months or so.
Speaker #6: So we'd be cautious to extend too much of that into the second half of the year. I think what we delivered this quarter we feel good about, in terms of being closer to a run rate.
Speaker #6: But I wouldn't just extrapolate out what we've seen in the first half as potentially occurring in the second half, given we did see some higher draws in the first quarter that may not occur as we go into the second half of the year.
Speaker #3: Today, we're still guiding to 40 to 50 basis points. And as we begin thinking about 2027, we'll contemplate whether or not that range changes looking forward.
Speaker #6: Yeah. I think we have to take a look at across all the portfolios and look at more normalized charge-offs could be. We continue to benefit on the consumer side for near recoveries on the real estate side.
Speaker #3: Yeah, okay. And then, just given the reduction in the more problematic portfolios that you just talked about earlier, despite the softness that you mentioned in multifamily, as you look ahead—beyond some maybe incremental improvement you could see in the back half of this year—are you thinking that maybe that net charge-off range could step down to something that's more of a sub-40 basis points level, assuming the economy remains resilient?
Speaker #6: So being thoughtful in terms of how long does that continue into the future will also impact how we think about our guidance going forward.
Speaker #6: Sounds good. Any steps you're taking on the multifamily front?
Speaker #3: No. Just continuing to watch that. And I'd say there's just a couple of discrete markets where we see absorption rates being a little slower than we might have expected.
Speaker #6: No, we're continuing to debate and talk about that, just based upon the composition of our portfolio, which has changed a little over the last 12 to 24 months or so.
Speaker #3: And/or rising interest rates potentially impacting the refinanceability of some of those projects. So into the permanent market. So just watching that. Nothing to be particularly concerned about today.
Speaker #6: Today, we're still guiding to 40 to 50 basis points. And as we begin thinking about 2027, we'll contemplate whether or not that range changes going forward.
Speaker #3: Yeah, I think we have to take a look across all the portfolios and look at where more normalized charge-offs could be. We continue to benefit on the consumer side from near recoveries on the real estate side.
Speaker #6: Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: So, being thoughtful in terms of how long that continues into the future will also impact how we think about our guidance going forward.
Speaker #2: Hi. Good morning.
Speaker #7: Good morning. Just wanted to double-click on sort of the funding strategy from here. If lending growth continues at a pretty solid pace for the rest of the year, Anil, take us through the trade-off in terms of how you're thinking about maybe using some short-term borrowings, FHLB advances, as funding versus you mentioned that deposit costs you'd like, for it to stay where they are now.
Speaker #3: Sounds good. Are there any steps you're taking on the multifamily front?
Speaker #6: No, just continuing to watch that. And I'd say there are just a couple of discrete markets where we see absorption rates being a little slower than we might have expected.
Speaker #6: And/or rising interest rates potentially impacting the refinanceability of some of those projects into the permanent market. So, just watching that. Nothing to be particularly concerned about today.
Speaker #7: So take us through sort of the thought process in terms of defending your core deposit cost base versus looking at other avenues to fund loan growth if we don't see deposit growth materialize in the second half of the year.
Speaker #3: Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Speaker #2: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Erica Najarian with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #7: Hi. Good morning. Good morning. Just wanted to double-click on sort of the funding strategy from here. If lending growth continues at a pretty solid pace for the rest of the year, and you'll take us through the trade-off in terms of how you're thinking about maybe using some short-term borrowings, FHLB advances, as funding versus you mentioned that deposit costs.
Speaker #3: Sure. So first and foremost, over the long term, it is our strategy to ensure that loans and deposits grow at a similar rate. Now, to your point, at any one given period of time, you could see that loans grow faster than deposits.
Speaker #3: The key for us is to continue to make sure we're investing in the right products and services and bankers to grow our operating accounts for small business and core consumer checking accounts.
Speaker #3: We saw nice growth this quarter in that. You saw non-interest bearing account balances for us grow about 500 million dollars on average. And so we'll continue to make those investments to make sure we have that pace of growth continue into the future.
Speaker #7: You'd like for it to stay where they are now. So, take us through the thought process in terms of defending your core deposit cost base versus looking at other avenues to fund loan growth, if we don't see deposit growth materialize in the second half of the year.
Speaker #3: That's the key to our profitability advantage and we'll continue to do that. Now, to your point, you'll have periods of time where you may have opportunities to grow loans faster than deposits.
Speaker #3: So yes, we will utilize FHLB advances to fill that gap in a short-term basis. We'll do what you saw us do this quarter was issue a billion and a half dollars of unsecured debt very, very good pricing, treasuries plus 68.
Speaker #6: Sure. So, first and foremost, over the long term, it is our strategy to ensure that loans and deposits grow at a similar rate. Now, to your point, at any one given period of time, you could see that loans grow faster than deposits.
Speaker #3: So we'll do that from time to time as well when we have opportunities to fill gaps. But that'll be our strategy going forward. But make no mistake, our long-term strategy is still to make sure we're growing deposits commensurate with loans.
Speaker #6: The key for us is to continue to make sure we're investing in the right products and services, and bankers, to grow our operating accounts for small business and core consumer checking accounts.
Speaker #6: We saw nice growth this quarter in that. You saw non-interest-bearing account balances for us grow about $500 million on average. And so we'll continue to make those investments to make sure we have that pace of growth continue into the future.
Speaker #7: Got it. And in terms of just on deposit pricing again, obviously, you have always had an enviable deposit base. How should we think about pricing and betas if we do get that rate hike?
Speaker #6: That's the key to our profitability advantage, and we'll continue to do that. Now, to your point, you'll have periods of time where you may have opportunities to grow loans faster than deposits.
Speaker #7: And going back to the earlier question, as you talked about this more intense competitive dynamic in deposits over the past 12 to 18 months, has it been on promo pricing?
Speaker #6: So yes, we will utilize FHLB advances to fill that gap in a short-term basis. We'll do what you saw us do this quarter was issue a billion and a half dollars of unsecured debt very, very good pricing.
Speaker #7: Has it been on sort of cash incentive to open DDA accounts elsewhere? Maybe talk us through sort of what you have been up against over the past 12 to 18 months.
Speaker #6: Treasuries plus 68. So we'll do that from time to time as well, when we have opportunities to fill gaps. But that'll be our strategy going forward.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Over the past 12 to 18 months, we've consistently seen competitors issue promotional pricing in markets where they're looking to grow. That has been consistent.
Speaker #6: But make no mistake, our long-term strategy is still to make sure we're growing deposits commensurate with loans.
Speaker #7: Got it. And in terms of deposit pricing, again, obviously, you have always had an enviable deposit base. How should we think about pricing and betas if we do get that rate hike?
Speaker #3: I'd say what we've seen over the past, call it, six months is that pricing has not dramatically changed as you've seen the outlook for rates change.
Speaker #3: And so I've talked about this before. All banks are trying to manage thread this needle in terms of growing deposits, but also protecting their deposit costs because they're trying to drive profitability.
Speaker #7: And going back to the earlier question, as you talked about this more intense competitive dynamic in deposits over the past 12 to 18 months, has it been on promo pricing?
Speaker #3: So that's been unchanged in the market. We continue to benefit from and historically, our ability to reprice our CD portfolio going forward, our ability to manage the mix of our deposit base is the key advantage for us.
Speaker #7: Has it been on sort of cash incentives to open DDA accounts elsewhere? Maybe talk us through what you have been up against over the past 12 to 18 months.
Speaker #3: I just talked about being able to grow non-interest bearing deposits. It's being patient in terms of being able to meet short-term funding needs with alternative funding sources, having a 76% loan-to-deposit ratio is a huge advantage that we have over our peers.
Speaker #6: Yeah. Over the past 12 to 18 months, we’ve consistently seen competitors issue promotional pricing in markets where they’re looking to grow. That has been consistent.
Speaker #3: So these are advantages that we can pull upon to not feel the pressure to have to use rate to grow funding as others may have to do.
Speaker #6: I'd say what we've seen over the past, call it six months, is that pricing has not dramatically changed as you've seen the outlook for rates change.
Speaker #6: And so I've talked about this before. All banks are trying to thread this needle in terms of growing deposits, but also protecting their deposit costs, because they're trying to drive profitability.
Speaker #7: Got it. I'll follow up offline on the 25 basis points. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah. On beta, we expect our guidance and we expect to maintain a mid-30s beta. Should the Fed increase, we still expect that to hold.
Speaker #6: So that's been unchanged in the market. We continue to benefit from, and historically, our ability to reprice our CD portfolio. Going forward, our ability to manage the mix of our deposit base is the key advantage for us.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #8: Morning, Gerard.
Speaker #6: I just talked about being able to grow non-interest bearing deposits. It's about being patient in terms of meeting short-term funding needs with alternative funding sources.
Speaker #3: Hey, John. Hey, Anil.
Speaker #8: Morning.
Speaker #3: John, you touched upon the deposit system conversion expected in 2027. A two-part question. Is it the beginning of 2027 do you convert all the deposits onto the new system or the middle end of the year?
Speaker #6: Having a 76% loan-to-deposit ratio is a huge advantage that we have over our peers. So these are advantages that we can pull upon to not feel the pressure to have to use rate to grow funding as others may have to do.
Speaker #3: And then the second question is, what kind of capacity and when you convert everything over, what kind of growth capacity do you have with this new system?
Speaker #7: Got it. I'll follow up offline on the 25 basis points. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Could you increase deposits 50% before you have to do another systems or add capacity or something like that?
Speaker #6: Yeah. On beta, we expect our guidance, and we expect to maintain a mid-30s beta. Should the Fed increase, we still expect that to hold.
Speaker #8: Yeah. Great question. So Gerard, we will begin a pilot family and friends, so to speak, sometime in September or October with the idea that we would begin to convert some discrete section of customers likely in the first quarter of 2027.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: Morning, Gerard.
Speaker #6: Hey, John. Hey, Neil.
Speaker #3: Morning.
Speaker #6: John, you touched upon the deposit system conversion expected in 2027. A two-part question. Is it the beginning of 2027? Do you convert all the deposits onto the new system or the middle end of the year?
Speaker #8: This will not be a big bang type conversion. So we have the ability to migrate customers to the new system over time. And it's our expectation that we will do that in 2027 and be complete by mid-year to sometime in the third quarter of 2027.
Speaker #6: And then the second question is, what kind of capacity? And when you convert everything over, what kind of growth capacity do you have with this new system?
Speaker #6: Could you increase deposits by 50% before you have to do another systems upgrade or add capacity or something like that?
Speaker #8: Once it is complete and we'll have a contemporary platform, we think it gives us a lot of capabilities, the ability to bring products to the market much faster.
Speaker #3: Yeah, great question. So, Gerard, we will begin a pilot—'family and friends,' so to speak—sometime in September or October, with the idea that we would begin to convert some discrete section of customers, likely in the first quarter of 2027.
Speaker #8: Provide a much better customer experience. To keep our systems updated and current, much more easily because of the API layers that we will depend on and generally because it's a cloud-based platform.
Speaker #8: And then generally, we in terms of capacity, we think we have tremendous capacity. I can't tell you how much that will be, but we think it will give us quite an advantage in terms of our ability to grow on that system.
Speaker #3: This will not be a big-bang type conversion, so we have the ability to migrate customers to the new system over time. It's our expectation that we will do that in 2027 and be complete by mid-year to sometime in the third quarter of 2027.
Speaker #8: With the partners that we have.
Speaker #3: Very good. Those fire trucks in the background, your building's not on fire, is it?
Speaker #3: Once it is complete and we have a contemporary platform, we think it gives us a lot of capabilities—the ability to bring products to the market much faster.
Speaker #8: No, it's not.
Speaker #3: Thank you. No. Because I hear John pause there for a minute.
Speaker #8: You're okay.
Speaker #3: Provide a much better customer experience. To keep our systems updated and current, much more easily because of the API layers that we will depend on.
Speaker #3: Okay. And then as a follow-up question, you guys have always and you did it again this quarter, give us good color on these portfolios that may have weaknesses and transportation, for example.
Speaker #3: And generally, because it's a cloud-based platform, and then generally, we in terms of capacity, we think we have tremendous capacity. I can't tell you how much that will be, but we think it will give us quite an advantage in terms of our ability to grow on that system with the partners that we have.
Speaker #3: The commercial real estate office, which, of course, now are on the mend. So my question is, when you guys look out into the future, one of the areas that I'm wondering about is the success that the AI industry has had on this country's economy, which has been very powerful.
Speaker #3: In the boom is incredible. But we know as in past periods like the dot-com period where we had all those fiber cables built, eventually, it was a bust.
Speaker #6: Very good. Those fire trucks in the background—your building's not on fire.
Speaker #3: No, it's not.
Speaker #6: Thank you. No, because I heard John pause there for a minute.
Speaker #3: And I'm not suggesting AI is going to be a bust, but how do you guys do the second derivative analysis? Because I know you're not financing for the most part the data center construction, but your customers that might be connected to this ecosystem, how do you keep an eye on that so that two years from now, it's the portfolio that everybody's got to watch out for?
Speaker #3: You're okay.
Speaker #6: Okay. And then, as a follow-up question, you guys have always—and you did it again this quarter—given us good color on the portfolios that may have weaknesses, in transportation, for example.
Speaker #6: The commercial real estate office, which, of course, now are on the mend. So my question is, when you guys look out into the future, one of the areas that I'm wondering about is the success that the AI industry has had on this country’s economy, which has been very powerful.
Speaker #8: Yeah. I think we're trying to have discussions on a routine basis just in terms of understanding what's in our portfolio, what the connectivity is, and doing some just different kinds of analysis stressed analysis to say if this particular sector has some weakness, how does that affect us?
Speaker #6: The boom is incredible. But we know, as in past periods like the dot-com era, when all those fiber cables were built, that eventually, it was a bust.
Speaker #8: What companies, what industries are connected? What interconnectedness is there here that we need to be concerned about? Part of that is, I think, fundamentally just embedded in our concentration risk management analysis and the conversations that we have about that generally.
Speaker #6: And I'm not suggesting AI is going to be a bust, but how do you guys do the second derivative analysis? Because I know you're not financing, for the most part, the data center construction, but your customers that might be connected to this ecosystem—how do you keep an eye on that so that two years from now, it's the portfolio that everybody's got to watch out for?
Speaker #8: But as we think about portfolios, we think about credit risk, we're having ongoing conversations about the connectedness of exposure, interconnectedness of exposure throughout that sector.
Speaker #3: Yeah, I think we're trying to have discussions on a routine basis, just in terms of understanding what's in our portfolio, what the connectivity is, and doing some different kinds of analysis—stress analysis—to say, if this particular sector has some weakness, how does that affect us?
Speaker #3: And I think we add to that, we bring our discipline of being cautious as to how quickly we would grow anything until we get all those learnings back.
Speaker #3: And so soundness, profitability, and growth in that order matters, especially when you're thinking about industries like this, where there could be change and so we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves in growing ahead of that as we gather this data that John was alluding to.
Speaker #3: What companies, what industries are connected? What interconnectedness is there here that we need to be concerned about? Part of that is, I think, fundamentally just embedded in our concentration risk management analysis and the conversations that we have about that generally.
Speaker #3: Very good. And then just real quick, when John, you mentioned about the multifamily market a couple of bespoke markets that are you're keeping an eye on.
Speaker #3: Is that Charlotte or is it Nashville? What's the?
Speaker #8: In Texas.
Speaker #3: But as we think about portfolios, we think about credit risk. We're having ongoing conversations about the connectedness of exposure, the interconnectedness of exposure throughout that sector.
Speaker #3: Okay. Very good. Thank you. Okay. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: Hey, Matt.
Speaker #2: Good morning, Matt. Was hoping to dig into some of the traditional banking fees five, seven you split out the consumer and corporate service charges, both going really nice year over year.
Speaker #6: And I think we add to that, we bring our discipline of being cautious as to how quickly we would grow anything until we get all those learnings back.
Speaker #6: And so, soundness, profitability, and growth—in that order—matter, especially when you're thinking about industries like this, where there could be change. And so, we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves in growing ahead of that, as we gather this data that John was alluding to.
Speaker #2: And I guess I'm wondering, I think the corporate stuff is a treasury management investments you've made, but maybe comment on how sustainable that is and then on the consumer side.
Speaker #2: I think a big chunk is overdraft. So I guess I always wonder, is that good or bad when overdraft is coming so much?
Speaker #6: Very good. And then just real quick—when John, you mentioned the multifamily market, are there a couple of bespoke markets that you are keeping an eye on?
Speaker #8: Yeah. Maybe I'll speak to initially to your question about treasury management in general. We've improved our penetration rate in terms of the number of customers, percentage of customers to whom we're delivering treasury management products.
Speaker #6: Is that Charlotte, or is it Nashville? What's the—
Speaker #3: In Texas.
Speaker #6: Okay, very good. Thank you. Okay, thank you.
Speaker #8: It's grown from 57% to over 66% over the last five years or so. It's really been a focus of ours. We've improved our product offering.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #5: Hey, Matt.
Speaker #7: Good morning, Matt. Was hoping to dig into some of the traditional banking fees five, seven you split out the consumer and corporate service charges, both going really nice year over year.
Speaker #8: We've improved our sales capabilities and just generally how we think about making recommendations to customers to meet their specific needs. That has created a lot of momentum in treasury management.
Speaker #7: And I guess I’m wondering—I think the corporate stuff is the treasury management investments you’ve made, but maybe comment on how sustainable that is, and then on the consumer side.
Speaker #8: And I would expect that to continue. Similarly, the wealth business, we reached another record in terms of the amount of revenue we're generating and that's based on investments in talent.
Speaker #7: I think a big chunk is overdraft, so I guess I always wonder, is that good or bad when overdraft is coming in so much?
Speaker #8: It's based on expansion of our capabilities and just generally a good working relationship across our businesses so we're ensuring that we're making appropriate referrals and helping customers meet their needs.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Maybe I'll speak initially to your question about treasury management in general. We've improved our penetration rate in terms of the number of customers—the percentage of customers to whom we're delivering treasury management products.
Speaker #8: Again, I think that business will continue to grow and it's one that we feel really good about from that standpoint. On the consumer side, we're growing consumer checking accounts and we're seeing increased consumer activity.
Speaker #3: It's grown from 57% to over 66% over the last five years or so. It's really been a focus of ours. We've improved our product offering.
Speaker #3: We've improved our sales capabilities and, generally, how we think about making recommendations to customers to meet their specific needs. That has created a lot of momentum in treasury management.
Speaker #8: So I mentioned debit spending, credit spending, on a transaction basis, up 8% on a dollar-up transaction or amount of spend up 8%. So we're seeing good activity across the consumer book.
Speaker #3: And I would expect that to continue. Similarly, the wealth business—we reached another record in terms of the amount of revenue we're generating, and that's based on investments in talent.
Speaker #8: Overdraft fees were up modestly this quarter, I guess. And that would be somewhat seasonal. And so I think we'll go ahead.
Speaker #3: It's based on expansion of our capabilities. It's just generally a good working relationship across our businesses, so we're ensuring that we're making appropriate referrals and helping customers meet their needs.
Speaker #3: Yeah. No, we also look at that in particular on a very granular basis. So we look across different cohorts. So we understand the drivers of the increase because to your point, it can be a leading indicator of risk if not a monitored appropriately.
Speaker #3: Again, I think that business will continue to grow, and it's one that we feel really good about from that standpoint. On the consumer side, we're growing consumer checking accounts, and we're seeing increased consumer activity.
Speaker #3: So we look across each cohort to see how it's performing. We also look how it tracks into any potential charge-off risk. We're not seeing that yet.
Speaker #3: So what we're seeing now is that consumers to make continue to make themselves available to that service that we provide for them. But as of what we're seeing now, they're curing that.
Speaker #3: So I mentioned debit spending, credit spending—on a transaction basis, up 8%. On a dollar or transaction amount of spend, up 8%. So we're seeing good activity across the consumer book.
Speaker #3: And so we're not seeing much roll to charge but to your point, it's something that we monitor as a potential early sign, but we don't see any issues with that just yet.
Speaker #3: Overdraft fees were up modestly this quarter, I guess, and that would be somewhat seasonal. So I think we'll go ahead.
Speaker #2: Okay. That's helpful. And then within capital markets, how big is this mini deal in terms of revenue impact or is it just kind of a rounding error?
Speaker #2: And then just kind of long-term ambitions to call it both grow capital markets and maybe diversify it a little bit, into some other businesses.
Speaker #6: Yeah, no, we also look at that in particular on a very granular basis. So we look across different cohorts so we understand the drivers of the increase because, to your point, it can be a leading indicator of risk if not monitored appropriately.
Speaker #2: Thank you.
Speaker #8: Yeah. Initially, it'll have a modest impact. Longer term, I think we'll have a meaningful impact on our ability to meet customer needs in particular.
Speaker #6: So, we look across each cohort to see how it's performing. We also look at how it tracks into any potential charge-off risk. We're not seeing that yet.
Speaker #8: And we'll be another catalyst to help us grow the capital markets business. It was a very targeted acquisition. We have a really good government and institutional banking business generating deposits and making direct loans.
Speaker #6: So, what we're seeing now is that consumers continue to make themselves available to that service that we provide for them. But as of what we're seeing now, they're curing that.
Speaker #6: And so we're not seeing much roll to charge, but to your point, it's something that we monitor as a potential early sign. But we don't see any issues with that just yet.
Speaker #8: What we didn't have was the capability to offer municipal underwriting and securities products. And so this will allow us to do that. And again, specifically meet some needs that we were otherwise unable to meet since the sale of Morgan Keegan back in 2012.
Speaker #7: Okay, that's helpful. And then within Capital Markets, how big is this mini deal in terms of revenue impact, or is it just kind of a rounding error?
Speaker #7: And then just, kind of, long-term ambitions to both grow capital markets and maybe diversify it a little bit, and just some other businesses.
Speaker #8: So it complements a business that's really a good one for us and I think over time will make a reasonable contribution to additional earnings.
Speaker #3: Yeah, and initially, it'll have a modest impact. Longer term, I think we'll have a meaningful impact on our ability to meet customer needs in particular.
Speaker #2: And then just interesting kind of further expanding this business over time and also kind of diversifying into maybe some areas that you're underway.
Speaker #3: And it will be another catalyst to help us grow the capital markets business. It was a very targeted acquisition. We have a really good government and institutional banking business generating deposits and making direct loans.
Speaker #8: Yeah. I mean, we have a stated objective to continue to grow the percentage of non-interest revenue as a percentage of total. And one of the ways we do that is to invest in expanding our capital markets capabilities and business.
Speaker #3: What we didn't have was the capability to offer municipal underwriting and securities products, and so this will allow us to do that—and again, specifically meet some needs that we were otherwise unable to meet since the sale of Morgan Keegan back in 2012.
Speaker #8: If you go back to 2014, it was a 60 to 70 million dollar business and we should end the year somewhere between 360 and 380, I think.
Speaker #8: And we hope to be a 400 million dollar business over time. We've said it ought to be 80 to 100 million dollar kind of business every quarter.
Speaker #3: So it complements a business that's really a good one for us, and I think over time will make a reasonable contribution to additional earnings.
Speaker #8: And so we'll continue to make investments to ensure that we grow and diversify our revenue. And that we increase the percentage of non-interest revenue as a percentage of total.
Speaker #7: And then it's just interesting, kind of further expanding this business over time, and also diversifying into maybe some areas that you're underway.
Speaker #2: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I mean, we have a stated objective to continue to grow the percentage of non-interest revenue as a percentage of total. And one of the ways we do that is to invest in expanding our capital markets capabilities and business.
Speaker #8: Yep.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Spahr with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #3: Good morning.
Speaker #8: Good morning.
Speaker #3: Hi. Good morning. Just like to follow up on the capital markets questions. Just you bought ClearSight in 2021 and you had a little bit of a bump in revenue, but really revenue has really haven't grown much on a core basis over the last four or five years.
Speaker #3: If you go back to 2014, it was a $60 to $70 million business, and we should end the year somewhere between $360 and $380 million, I think.
Speaker #3: And we hope to be a $400 million business over time. We've said it ought to be an $80 to $100 million kind of business every quarter.
Speaker #3: And we're having record capital markets this year. So what do you think you need to do? If your stated goal or you said in the past to be an interesting leading middle market investment bank, what do you need to do?
Speaker #3: And so we'll continue to make investments to ensure that we grow and diversify our revenue, and that we increase the percentage of non-interest revenue as a percentage of total.
Speaker #3: And in between then also, you've also done some liftouts and tactical hires. So is it just a mix? Is it just the amount of execution?
Speaker #3: Just like what is going to help drive that fee line?
Speaker #7: Thank you.
Speaker #8: Well, I mean, it has grown. Again, since 2014 from 60 to 70 million dollars to levels that we've reached today. We have not increased revenue much over the last two years.
Speaker #3: Yep.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Spahr with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #5: Good morning. Hi. Good morning. I'd just like to follow up on the capital markets questions. You bought ClearSight in 2021, and you had a little bit of a bump in revenue, but revenues really haven't grown much on a core basis.
Speaker #8: And some of that's just been a function of the interest rate environment that we are operating in. M&A activity is up one quarter. Next quarter, we see our real estate capital markets activity up and M&A down.
Speaker #5: Over the last four or five years, and we're having record capital markets this year. So, what do you think you need to do? If your stated goal—or you said in the past—to be an interesting leading middle market investment bank, what do you need to do?
Speaker #8: So I think we've sort of reached a place where it's time to begin to move to the next level. We think the investments we've made in talent will help us do that.
Speaker #5: And in between then also, you've also done some lift-outs and tactical hires. So is it just a mix? Is it just the amount of execution?
Speaker #8: I believe that over time, we continue to work with our customers to develop the opportunities that we think exist to meet some of their needs.
Speaker #5: Just like, what is going to help drive that fee line?
Speaker #3: Well, I would say it has grown. Again, since 2014, from $60 to $70 million to levels that we've reached today. We have not increased revenue much over the last two years.
Speaker #8: We'll see more growth in capital markets. But in general, we're very happy with the investments that we've made and the role that capital markets plays in helping us deepen relationships.
Speaker #8: And grow and diversify our revenue.
Speaker #3: Okay. Great. Thank you. And my follow-up is on wealth actually it's grown really well. At least in prior years. So just the most of your disclosures have been mostly on the deposit side.
Speaker #3: And some of that's just been a function of the interest rate environment that we are operating in. M&A activity is up one quarter; next quarter, we see our real estate capital markets activity up and M&A down.
Speaker #3: What are the underlying assets under management, net new assets that you're acquiring? What is driving that fee line?
Speaker #3: So, I think we've sort of reached a place where it's time to begin to move to the next level. We think the investments we've made—
Speaker #8: Yeah. So we've made the point in maybe our earlier comments over the last three years, the wealth bankers that we've added have themselves generated over 6 billion dollars in new assets under management.
Speaker #3: Talent will help us do that. I believe that, over time, we will continue to work with our customers to develop the opportunities that we think exist to meet some of their needs.
Speaker #8: But we're seeing growth in across the wealth platform, whether it be in our retail brokerage business or in our private banking business, our institutional wealth business.
Speaker #3: We'll see more growth in capital markets. But in general, we're very happy with the investments that we've made and the role that capital markets plays in helping us deepen relationships.
Speaker #8: All of those are growing. And that's really a function, I think, of both good activity in the market, but more acquisition of customers and customer assets, which are driving increases in fees.
Speaker #3: And grow and diversify our revenue.
Speaker #5: Okay, great. Thank you. And my follow-up is on Wealth. Actually, it's grown really well, at least in prior years. Most of your disclosures have been on the deposit side.
Speaker #3: And can you put that 6 billion into context on the base of what?
Speaker #5: What are the underlying assets under management, and the net new assets that you're acquiring? What is driving that fee line?
Speaker #8: 60 billion? Yeah.
Speaker #3: Okay. Great. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah. So we've made the point in our maybe earlier comments, over the last three years, the wealth bankers that we've added have themselves generated over $6 billion in new assets under management.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #8: Good morning.
Speaker #3: But we're seeing growth across the wealth platform, whether it be in our retail brokerage business, our private banking business, or our institutional wealth business.
Speaker #2: Good morning.
Speaker #8: Good morning. Thanks. Getting back to the buyback question, the importance of the rated agencies and the TC ratios is getting a little bit more airtime.
Speaker #8: I guess, how does that affect how you're thinking about buybacks, not only near term, but also with all the three or four?
Speaker #3: All of those are growing, and that's really a function, I think, of both good activity in the market, but also more acquisition of customers and customer assets, which are driving increases in fees.
Speaker #5: Yeah. It'll impact
Speaker #8: us over the long term. So first, we'll wait to see for the final Basel III rule to come into effect, just to remind everyone kind of on a fully phased in Basel III endgame, we expect to be probably around 10 and a half percent based on current capital levels.
Speaker #5: And can you put that $6 billion into context—on the basis of what?
Speaker #8: To your point, we are having discussions with the rating agencies. Around how they will think about this through their lens. As of right now, we're still holding to our guide of 9 and a quarter to 9 and three quarters.
Speaker #3: 60 billion? Yeah.
Speaker #5: Okay. Great. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGrady with KBW. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #8: We'll evaluate that once we kind of get better clarity from them. But the opportunity ahead of us is still there. Where we ultimately land is still subject to further conversation.
Speaker #3: Good morning. Good morning. Thanks.
Speaker #6: Getting back to the buyback question, the importance of the rating agencies and the TC ratios is getting a little bit more airtime. I guess, how does that affect how you're thinking about buybacks, not only near term, but also with all the three or four?
Speaker #8: But we still have incredible opportunity to deploy capital back into our business and look forward to doing that once we get the final rule.
Speaker #2: Okay. Thanks for that.
Speaker #3: Yeah. It'll impact us over the long term. So first, we'll wait to see for the final Basel III rule to come into effect, just to remind everyone kind of on a fully phased in Basel III endgame, we expect to be probably around 10 and a half percent based on current capital levels.
Speaker #8: And then secondarily, does the commentary before related to the pilot and the conversion and the timing in the middle of next year, does that at all influence or change prior comments about inorganic focus for the foreseeable future?
Speaker #8: Thanks.
Speaker #5: No. I mean, I think we're still,
Speaker #8: I would say, we're not interested in depository M&A. That was an issue or a topic we continue to visit. But I think you can expect us to stay focused on deposit conversion that we have for right now.
Speaker #3: To your point, we are having discussions with the rating agencies. Around how they will think about this through their lens. As of right now, we're still holding to our guide of 9 and a quarter to 9 and three quarters.
Speaker #3: We'll evaluate that once we get better clarity from them. But the opportunity ahead of us is still there. Where we ultimately land is still subject to further conversation.
Speaker #8: It is a super important to us. It's a complex project. One that's going very well. We have a lot of optimism about our ability to execute it.
Speaker #3: But we still have incredible opportunity to deploy capital back into our business, and we look forward to doing that once we get the final rule.
Speaker #8: And that's where we'll primarily be focused. Just the execution of our business, which I think we're doing really well.
Speaker #6: Okay, thanks for that. And then, secondarily, does the commentary before—related to the pilot and the conversion and the timing in the middle of next year—does that at all influence or change prior comments about inorganic focus for the foreseeable future?
Speaker #2: Okay.
Speaker #3: Thanks. And then just last, if I could, on the preferreds, could you just help us with any back half expectations for the preferred dividend?
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #8: Yeah. As of right now, it kind of goes hand in hand with common equity tier one. So when we're managing to higher levels of common equity tier one, then we may ultimately need.
Speaker #6: Thanks.
Speaker #3: No, I mean, I think we still would say we're not interested in depository M&A. That was an issue or a topic we continue to revisit.
Speaker #8: We won't feel the need to kind of pre-issue any preferred ahead of then. And so I'd say we're going to wait and see where the rating agency conversation lands.
Speaker #8: That'll determine kind of the first part of the capital stack. And if we feel like we want to add preferred through time, we'll do that.
Speaker #3: But I think you can expect us to stay focused on deposit conversion that we have for right now. It is super important to us.
Speaker #8: But we don't feel the need to do anything in the near term based on what we're hearing right now.
Speaker #3: It's a complex project—one that's going very well. We have a lot of optimism about our ability to execute it, and that's where we'll primarily be focused.
Speaker #3: Okay. So current run rate. Thank you.
Speaker #8: Yep.
Speaker #3: Just the execution of our business, which I think we're doing really well.
Speaker #1: Our final question comes from the line of Vivek Dinesh with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #6: Okay, thanks. And then just last, if I could, on the preferred—could you just help us with any back half expectations for the preferred dividend?
Speaker #8: Morning, Vivek.
Speaker #2: Morning. Just to follow up on the earlier question on deposit rate as your CD cost, do you have room to bring those down further?
Speaker #6: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah. As of right now, it kind of goes hand in hand with Common Equity Tier 1. So when we're managing to higher levels of Common Equity Tier 1, then we may ultimately need.
Speaker #2: You seem to have brought it down. What are the maturities you have there? I'm trying to understand this your ability to be able to keep beta's at mid-30s.
Speaker #3: We won't feel the need to kind of pre-issue any preferred ahead of then. And so, I'd say we're going to wait and see where the rating agency conversation lands.
Speaker #8: Yeah. We're confident being able to keep beta's in the mid-30s. When we look at the upcoming CD maturities, that is declining to about $3 billion a quarter.
Speaker #3: That'll determine kind of the first part of the capital stack. If we feel like we want to add preferred through time, we'll do that.
Speaker #3: But we don't feel the need to do anything in the near term based on what we're hearing right now.
Speaker #8: We think we'll basically bring on the repriced CDs about at an equal cost. So that's what gives us confidence on our guide that we think overall deposit pricing will be flattish from here.
Speaker #6: Okay. So, current run rate. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yep.
Speaker #1: Our final question comes from the line of Vivek Tunasia with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #2: Okay. So you're able to keep that at current rates even with all the promo pricing. And is that more in your metro political markets or is it in the rural areas given the competition from newcomers?
Speaker #3: Morning, Vivek.
Speaker #7: Good morning. Just to follow up on the earlier question about deposit betas and your CD costs: do you have room to bring those down further? You seem to have brought them down already.
Speaker #2: And also the online competition that the company is doing.
Speaker #7: What are the maturities you have there? I'm trying to understand how you're able to keep betas in the mid-30s.
Speaker #8: Yeah. So first, I would really kind of more target the discussion around where we're doing any type of promotional because we're in all these markets, we don't have to do broad promotional pricing to try to enter the market.
Speaker #3: Yeah, we're confident in being able to keep betas in the mid-30s. When we look at the upcoming CD maturities, that is declining to about $3 billion a quarter.
Speaker #8: We're already there. So going back to my earlier comments on understanding our customers, understanding how they behave, we're able to bring all this information together to be incredibly targeted with any customers that we want to do promotional pricing to.
Speaker #3: We think we'll basically bring on the repriced CDs at about an equal cost. So that's what gives us confidence in our guidance that we think overall deposit pricing will be flattish from here.
Speaker #8: We don't have to do it on a broad scale. So we do it in a very targeted way for particular customers that we feel like we may want and need to do that.
Speaker #7: Okay. So you're able to keep that at current rates, even with all the promo pricing. And is that more in your metro policy markets or is it in the rural areas, given the competition from newcomers?
Speaker #8: But for us, it's not a meaningful headwind in terms of deposit cost because one, we don't need it from a funding standpoint. Two, we're already in these markets.
Speaker #8: And so three, we can be very focused in terms of where we want to deploy that.
Speaker #7: And also the online competition that the company is facing?
Speaker #3: Yeah. So first, I would really kind of more target the discussion around where we're doing any type of promotional, because we're in all these markets, we don't have to do broad promotional pricing to try to enter the market.
Speaker #2: Okay. And you said you don't need it from a funding despite loan growth doing a little bit better.
Speaker #8: Yeah. Look, our long term, we're not going to fund loan growth with high-cost promotional deposits. If we have loan growth that exceeds deposit cost in any one given period, we'll look to other funding sources that we have available to us.
Speaker #3: We're already there. So, going back to my earlier comments on understanding our customers and understanding how they behave, we're able to bring all this information together to be incredibly targeted with any customers that we want to offer promotional pricing to.
Speaker #8: Our debt footprint's roughly half of the peer average. So we'll pull on those things first. We'll continue to invest in growing our non-interest bearing and low-cost deposits to ultimately catch up.
Speaker #3: We don't have to do it on a broad scale, so we do it in a very targeted way for particular customers that we feel like we may want and need to do that for.
Speaker #8: But our business model is not built around using high-cost deposits as a funding source.
Speaker #3: But for us, it's not a meaningful headwind in terms of deposit cost because, one, we don't need it from a funding standpoint, and two, we're already in these markets.
Speaker #2: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. I would like to turn the call back over to John Turner for closing comments.
Speaker #3: And so, three, we can be very focused in terms of where we want to deploy that.
Speaker #5: Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. We appreciate your interest in regions and your interaction with us today. Have a great weekend.
Speaker #7: Okay. And you said you don't need it from a funding standpoint, despite loan growth doing a little bit better.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Look, in the long term, we're not going to fund loan growth with high-cost promotional deposits. If we have loan growth that exceeds deposit growth in any one given period, we'll look to other funding sources.
Speaker #3: that we have available to us. Our debt footprint is roughly half of the peer average, so we'll pull on those things first. We'll continue to invest in growing our non-interest-bearing and low-cost deposits to ultimately catch up.
Speaker #3: But our business model is not built around using high-cost deposits as a funding source.
Speaker #7: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Turner for closing comments.
Speaker #8: Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Regions and your interaction with us today. Have a great weekend.