Q2 2026 Aryzta AG Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Which also apply to today's discussions. I will now hand over to Urs to start the presentation.
Speaker #1: Participants are requested to use only handsets when asking a question. Please hold the line; the conference will begin shortly. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Paul. Good morning all. Let me welcome you to this H1 2026 result overview. On page 4 you can see the key highlights of the first half year, 2026, with it achieve a revenue of 1.064 million almost, which accounts for an organic growth of minus 2.7%.
Speaker #2: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the half-year 2026 results conference call and live webcast. The call will be hosted by OASIODI, Chairman and Interim CEO, and Martin Huber, CFO.
Speaker #2: I'm Matilda Dacors, Call Operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded.
Speaker #2: The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and 0.
Speaker #2: EBITDA has been achieved of 139.9 million, and the free cash flow of 23.6 million.
Speaker #1: Earnings per share stands at €1.82 in April this year . We did repurchase the hybrid bonds the last outstanding hybrid bonds . And as you did read some weeks ago , we did the French bolt on acquisition to expand our French business Then on the next page page five , you can see the H1 organic growth being impacted by mainly a heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty .
Speaker #2: The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Paul Meade, Head of Investor Relations.
Speaker #2: Please go ahead, sir.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Matilda. Good morning, and welcome to our H1 results call. Our presentation includes forward-looking statements, which detail the various risks and uncertainties that may impact our business, and which also apply to today's discussions.
Speaker #3: I will now hand over to Urs to start the presentation.
Speaker #1: Consumer savings are going up and consumer uncertainty is visible , resulting in a subdued consumer sentiment . We did work against strong prior year comps .
Speaker #4: Thank you, Paul. Good morning, all. Let me welcome you to this H1 2026 results overview. On page 4, you can see the key highlights of the first half of 2026.
Speaker #1: Germany was clearly the most challenging market . Germany is underperformance offset the growth in other key markets . We are driving project excellence at pace to harvest attractive savings and strengthen margin resilience for Germany .
Speaker #4: We did achieve a revenue of $1,060.4 million, which accounts for an organic growth of minus 2.7%. EBITDA has been achieved of $139.9 million, and free cash flow of $23.6 million.
Speaker #1: We are considering all options to maximize shareholder value Both accelerating and delivering attractive savings benefits . The Excellence Program , as I did mentioned , is rolling out faster and in more bakeries and in more markets .
Speaker #4: Earnings per share stand at €1.82. In April this year, we repurchased the hybrid bonds—the last outstanding hybrid bonds—and, as you read some weeks ago, we did a French bolt-on acquisition to expand our French business.
Speaker #1: The Airstream , lining the organizational model further optimization investments are planned for H2 this year , we have very good visibility on key inputs , innovation rate of 19% is supporting profitability via Premiumization Then , on page seven , the guidance for 2026 , we are targeting to achieve organic growth at the lower end of the guidance range .
Speaker #4: Then, on the next page—page 5—you can see the H1 organic growth being impacted mainly by heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Consumer savings are going up, and consumer uncertainty is visible.
Speaker #4: Resulting in subdued consumer sentiment. We did work against strong prior-year comps. Germany was clearly the most challenging market. Germany's underperformance offset the growth in other key markets.
Speaker #1: Reiterate expectation to deliver further EBITDA and Ebit improvement , and we expect to deliver solid cash generation and an improvement in net debt to EBITDA for 2027 and 2028 , the board will propose a capital return allocation to shareholders at the AGM 2027 .
Speaker #4: We are driving Project Excellence at pace to harvest attractive savings and strengthen margin resilience. For Germany, we are considering all options to maximize shareholders’ value.
Speaker #1: The options for this are dividends , share buyback or a combination of both . We are targeting to evolve progressively towards Swiss listed SMEs .
Speaker #1: Payout ratios . I will hand over now to Martin Huber for financial review .
Speaker #2: Thank you , earth and good morning . I'm pleased to share our results for the first half of 2026 . We had a challenging start into the year , particularly in Germany , but the group delivered a resilient performance in a difficult economic and consumer environment .
Speaker #2: Revenue of €1,000,000,063.9 million was below the prior year , resulting in an organic growth of negative 2.7% . This was mainly driven by volume mix of -2.1% , with Germany being the key drag on the group performance .
Speaker #2: Our reported Ebit margin of 13.2% was 70 basis points below prior year , and includes one time cost of approximately €5.4 million , mainly related to the Excellence Program , which is driving cost optimization and organizational efficiency .
Speaker #2: These one time costs represent approximately 50 basis points of revenue . Free cash flow of €23.6 million is largely in line with previous year , and our guidance for the first half of 2026 .
Speaker #2: Of 11.1% . Although below last year given lower profitability is ahead of our weighted average cost of capital , creating value for our shareholders .
Speaker #2: At the same time , we made clear progress on the levers that matter for the full year . We accelerated cost efficiency , improved capital structure and reduced the financing cost .
Speaker #1: All combinations of both. We are targeting to evolve progressively toward Swiss-listed SMEs, payout ratios. I would hand over now to Martin Huber for the financial review.
Speaker #2: Let me now provide more details on the composition of our revenue performance . Total revenue decreased by 2.1% or €22.5 million . This reflects an organic growth of negative 2.7% , which is partially offset by a positive foreign exchange impact of 0.6 percent .
Speaker #2: Thank you, Urs, and good morning. I'm pleased to share our results for the first half of 2026. We had a challenging start to the year, particularly in Germany, but the group delivered a resilient performance in a difficult economic and consumer environment.
Speaker #2: The subdued consumer sentiment impacted retail in particular , as well as QSR channels in Europe , with Germany being the main driver of the negative growth , solid organic growth in Switzerland , France , the Netherlands partly offset this impact , but not enough to compensate for the decline in Germany .
Speaker #2: Revenue of €1,063.9 million was below the prior year, resulting in organic growth of negative 2.7%. This was mainly driven by a volume mix of negative 2.1%, with Germany being the key drag on the group performance.
Speaker #2: QSR in rest of world delivered mid-single digit organic growth supported by pricing and volume mix , while the other two channels in this region were flat .
Speaker #2: Overall , negative pricing remains limited and is expected to be stable to slightly improving for the full year . I will now move from the group revenue bridge to the performance of Europe and rest of World Europe and Germany in particular , weigh on group revenue performance in the first half .
Speaker #2: Our reported EBITDA margin of 13.2% was 70 basis points below the prior year and includes a one-time cost of approximately €5.4 million, mainly related to the Excellence Program, which is driving cost optimization and organizational efficiency.
Speaker #2: At the same time , it is important to highlight that there are clear signs of relative resilience in several of our retail markets year to date , three of our seven retail markets have outperformed their respective markets , and two additional markets have significantly closed the gap versus market performance .
Speaker #2: These one-time costs represent approximately 50 basis points of revenue. Free cash flow of €23.6 million is largely in line with the previous year and our guidance for the first half of 2026.
Speaker #2: ROIC of 11.1%, although below last year given lower profitability, is ahead of our weighted average cost of capital, creating value for our shareholders. At the same time, we made clear progress on the levers that matter for the full year.
Speaker #2: Our continued strong innovation activity representing 19.2% of revenue , delivered almost the same absolute top line contribution as in prior year and importantly , is supporting margin distribution platform acquired in France will contribute to our revenue growth .
Speaker #2: We accelerated cost efficiency, improved the capital structure, and reduced financing costs. Let me now provide more details on the composition of our revenue performance.
Speaker #2: For the full six months of the second half . Lower revenue impacted profitability with an EBITDA margin of 12.4% coming in 80 basis points below the prior year .
Speaker #2: Total revenue decreased by 2.1%, or €22.5 million. This reflects an organic growth of negative 2.7%, which is partially offset by a positive foreign exchange impact of 0.6%.
Speaker #2: The European businesses are the main focus of our cost efficiency and optimization initiatives , and most of the related one time costs , therefore , are recorded in this region .
Speaker #2: The subdued consumer sentiment impacted retail in particular, as well as QSR channels in Europe, with Germany being the main driver of the negative growth.
Speaker #2: Based on the progress of these initiatives , we are confident that Europe will recover margin in the second half and contribute to the overall targeted improvement of the group .
Speaker #2: Solid organic growth in Switzerland, France, and the Netherlands partly offset this impact, but not enough to compensate for the decline in Germany. QSR in the rest of the world delivered mid-single-digit organic growth, supported by pricing and volume mix, while the other two channels in this region were flat.
Speaker #2: EBITDA margin . This was Europe . I will continue to share further details to rest of World segment The QSR channel has been driving the top line performance of Rest of World positive organic growth of 2.7% is supported by both volume mix and pricing .
Speaker #2: Overall, negative pricing remains limited and is expected to be stable to slightly improving for the full year. I will now move from the group revenue bridge to the performance of Europe and the rest of the world.
Speaker #2: The other two channels in rest of world were flat in growth worth highlighting . Our Malaysian business with good contribution to growth driven by volume , which was , however , offset by the performance of the other businesses .
Speaker #2: Europe, and Germany in particular, weighed on group revenue performance in the first half. At the same time, it is important to highlight that there are clear signs of relative resilience in several of our retail markets.
Speaker #2: The ramp up of the Perth factory is progressing well and we expect a positive contribution to revenue in the second half of this year .
Speaker #2: The cost of pre hiring of factory staff and preparatory work in the factory have temporarily impacted profitability of rest of world . For the full year .
Speaker #2: Year to date, 3 of our 7 retail markets have outperformed their respective markets, and 2 additional markets have significantly closed the gap versus market performance.
Speaker #2: We expect EBITDA margin to increase to previous year's level as a next step , I will move now to the key drivers of the Epta margin EBITDA margin reduced by 70 basis points in H1 to 13.2% , including a 50 basis points impact of one time costs related to the cost efficiency and optimization initiatives of our excellence program .
Speaker #2: Our continued strong innovation activity, representing 19.2% of revenue, delivered almost the same absolute top-line contribution as in the prior year and, importantly, is supporting margin.
Speaker #2: The distribution platform acquired in France will contribute to our revenue growth for the full six months of the second half. Lower revenue impacted profitability, with an EBITDA margin of 12.4%, coming in 80 basis points below the prior year.
Speaker #2: These one time costs correspond mainly to restructuring expenses and consulting costs , supporting the accelerated rollout of the program . Gross margin before distribution improved sequentially by 70 basis points versus the second half of 25 , and remained flat versus the first half of 2025 .
Speaker #2: The European businesses are the main focus of our cost efficiency and optimization initiatives, and most of the related one-time costs, therefore, are recorded in this region.
Speaker #2: Based on the progress of these initiatives, we are confident that Europe will recover margin in the second half and contribute to the overall targeted improvement of the Group EBITDA margin.
Speaker #2: Key drivers of the evolution of the gross margin versus previous year are a positive contribution from procurement and other savings initiatives of 90 basis points plus margin accretive innovation , which added 20 basis points to the gross margin .
Speaker #2: This was Europe. Now, continuing to share further details on the Rest of the World segment: the QSR channel has been driving the top-line performance of the Rest of the World.
Speaker #2: These positive effects helped to compensate the impact of lower operational leverage and the negative net effect of commodity deflation . Labor and energy inflation , as well as slightly negative pricing .
Speaker #2: Positive organic growth of 2.7% is supported by both volume mix and pricing. The other two channels in the rest of the world were flat in growth.
Speaker #2: The negative impact of distribution and a on the EBITDA margin . On one side is driven by lower operational leverage and on the other side , by approximately 50 basis points of one time cost , which are recorded within S , G and a .
Speaker #2: We're highlighting our Malaysian business, with good contribution to growth driven by volume, which was, however, offset by the performance of the other businesses. The ramp-up of the Per factory is progressing well, and we expect a positive contribution to revenue in the second half of this year.
Speaker #2: These costs were partially offset overall by the ramp up of the excellence cost Savings program , which has already contributed 30 basis points to the result .
Speaker #2: The cost of pre-hiring factory staff and preparatory work in the factory have temporarily impacted profitability in the Rest of World for the full year.
Speaker #2: We expect the impact of excellence actions to strengthen in the second half and to be a key contributor to the targeted EBITDA margin improvement for the full year .
Speaker #2: We expect the EBITDA margin to increase to the previous year's level. As a next step, I will now move to the key drivers of the EBITDA margin.
Speaker #2: I will now provide more details on the excellence Program and the savings initiatives behind these margin improvement We have made good progress in our long term efficiency and cost optimization program excellence .
Speaker #2: EBITDA margin reduced by 70 basis points in H1 to 13.2%, including a 50 basis point impact from one-time costs related to the cost efficiency and optimization initiatives of our Excellence Program.
Speaker #2: The program is now moving from assessment into delivery , with confirmed savings already being realized and further rollouts prepared for the second half .
Speaker #2: These one-time costs correspond mainly to restructuring expenses and consulting costs supporting the accelerated rollout of the program. Gross margin before distribution improved sequentially by 70 basis points versus the second half of 2025 and remained flat versus the first half of 2025.
Speaker #2: Up to now , we have addressed with this program circa 45% of total production volume so far . We have identified and confirmed 8 to €10 million of gross cost reductions in operation .
Speaker #2: Key drivers of the evolution of the gross margin versus the previous year are a positive contribution from procurement and other savings initiatives of 90 basis points, plus margin-accretive innovation, which added 20 basis points to the gross margin.
Speaker #2: We are gradually building up internal capacity to further accelerate the coverage on the remaining plants , and we expect to have our full manufacturing footprint covered by the end of 2027 .
Speaker #2: The alignment of our organizational structure is progressing according to plan and this is expected to deliver annual gross cost savings of approximately €10 million .
Speaker #2: These positive effects helped to compensate the impact of lower operational leverage and the negative net effect of commodity deflation, labor and energy inflation, as well as slightly negative pricing.
Speaker #2: We are also progressing with the rollout of our IT roadmap . As you continue to evolve towards a more digitally enabled company , key initiatives this year includes the S four Hana implementation in phonetic and the upgrade of our warehouse management system in the French business .
Speaker #2: The negative impact of distribution and SG&A on the EBITDA margin, on one side, is driven by lower operational leverage, and on the other side, by approximately 50 basis points of one-time costs, which are recorded within SG&A.
Speaker #2: With this , we confirm that the reactor continues to target to achieve the 20 to 30 million net savings by 2028 through Project excellence .
Speaker #2: These costs were partially offset overall by the ramp-up of the Excellence cost savings program, which has already contributed 30 basis points to the result.
Speaker #2: By optimizing on one side , our operation and on the other side , streamlining the organization from excellence . I will now turn to the cash flow performance free cash flow of €23.6 million is largely in line with previous year , and as per the expectation , stable working capital and disciplined CapEx management supported the results .
Speaker #2: We expect the impact of excellence actions to strengthen in the second half and to be a key contributor to the targeted EBITDA margin improvement for the full year.
Speaker #2: I will now provide more details on the Excellence program and the savings initiatives behind these margin improvements. We have made good progress in our long-term efficiency and cost optimization program, Excellence.
Speaker #2: Lower absolute EBITDA was almost fully compensated by the improvement in financing costs and lower cash taxes , higher net lease payments and some other elements had a slight negative impact on cash flow for the full year .
Speaker #2: The program is now moving from assessment into delivery, with confirmed savings already being realized and further rollouts prepared for the second half. Up to now, we have addressed, with this program, approximately 45% of total production volume.
Speaker #2: We are confident to generate solid levels of cash flow , supported by the improved profitability . On the next slide , I share more details on the working capital performance supporting cash flow .
Speaker #2: So far, we have identified and confirmed €8–10 million of gross cost reductions in operation. We are gradually building up internal capacity to further accelerate the coverage on the remaining plans, and we expect to have our full manufacturing footprint covered by the end of 2027.
Speaker #2: Our train and working capital was maintained at efficient levels and protected cash flow performance for the company . Our cash conversion cycle has slightly increased by two days compared to H1 last year .
Speaker #2: Somewhat higher inventories and days of sales outstanding have been almost fully offset by better payment terms . Management . I will now move to our capital structure and leverage development We continue to move towards our targeted leverage levels and to improve our financing and capital structure , supported by consistent cash generation and disciplined balance sheet management .
Speaker #2: The alignment of our organizational structure is progressing according to plan and is expected to deliver annual gross cost savings of approximately €10 million.
Speaker #2: We are also progressing with the rollout of our IT roadmap, as we continue to evolve towards a more digitally enabled company. Key initiatives this year include the S/4HANA implementation in Phonetic and the upgrade of our warehouse management system in the French Coudepas business.
Speaker #2: Key achievement in the first half of 2026 , our total net debt decreased by almost €100 million to 789 million , corresponding to a leverage ratio of 2.7 times the repayment of the last remaining hybrid principal concluded .
Speaker #2: With this, we confirm that Aryzta continues to target achieving the €20 to €30 million net savings by 2028 through Project Excellence by optimizing, on one side, our operations and, on the other side, streamlining the organization.
Speaker #2: Our hybrid repayment and refinancing program and our core equity continues to increase to 23.3% of total assets , up from 18% in previous year .
Speaker #2: From excellence, I will now turn to the cash flow performance. Free cash flow of €23.6 million is largely in line with the previous year, and as per expectations.
Speaker #2: On the next slide , I'll explain the evolution of our financing costs , where the stronger capital structure is translating into tangible benefits Supported by the continued optimization of our financing structure , the reduction of total net debt , and a further improvement of our cash management decreased total financing costs by €5.5 million to 16.8 million .
Speaker #2: Stable working capital and disciplined capex management supported the results. Lower absolute EBITDA was almost fully compensated by the improvement in financing costs and lower cash taxes.
Speaker #2: Higher net lease payments and some other elements had a slight negative impact on cash flow. For the full year, we are confident we will generate solid levels of cash flow, supported by the improved profitability.
Speaker #2: Our interest rate hedging , which is covering 29% of our bank debt , will end in the second half of this year . Given the positive evolution of our year to date financing costs , we are improving our full year guidance to the lower end of the 37 to €40 million range .
Speaker #2: On the next slide, I share more details on the working capital performance supporting cash flow. Our trade net working capital was maintained at efficient levels and protected cash flow performance for the company.
Speaker #2: Our cash conversion cycle has slightly increased by two days compared to H1 last year. Somewhat higher inventories and days of sales outstanding have been almost fully offset by better payment terms management.
Speaker #2: This compares to the previous year range . The previously targeted range of 40 to €43 million . Next is the evolution of rock and value creation .
Speaker #2: I will now move to our capital structure and leverage development. We continue to move towards our targeted leverage levels and to improve our financing and capital structure, supported by consistent cash generation and disciplined balance sheet management.
Speaker #2: Our royk remained robust at 11.1% , which is ahead of our cost of capital . Even in the more challenging profitability environment , the group continues to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital and creates economic value for the shareholders .
Speaker #2: The year on year reduction of Royk is explained by a lower operating profit in the first half . Importantly , here , the capital base has been well controlled , disciplined CapEx and efficient working capital management have delivered a stable to slightly declining invested capital base .
Speaker #2: Key achievement in the first half of 2020: six, our total net debt decreased by almost €100 million to €789 million, corresponding to a leverage ratio of 2.7 times.
Speaker #2: The repayment of the last remaining hybrid principal concluded our hybrid repayment and refinancing program, and our core equity continues to increase to 23.3% of total assets, up from 18% in the previous year.
Speaker #2: Royk is lower than last year , but remains comfortably above the cost of capital . Moving now to the earnings per share , earnings per share at €1.82 is largely stable versus previous year .
Speaker #2: The lower operating profit was almost fully compensated by further improved financing costs and lower and a lower tax charge . I will now conclude with our outlook for the full year While the first half was demanding , particularly in Europe , we have made significant progress in ramping up our cost optimization and efficiency initiatives .
Speaker #2: On the next slide, I'll explain the evolution of our financing costs, where the stronger capital structure is translating into tangible benefits. Supported by the continued optimization of our financing structure, the reduction of total net debt, and a further improvement of our cash management, decreased total financing costs by €5.5 million to €16.8 million.
Speaker #2: These actions are expected to support a stronger profit contribution in the second half and keep us on track to deliver profit improvements for the full year .
Speaker #2: Our interest rate hedging, which is covering 29% of our bank debt, will end in the second half of this year. Given the positive evolution of our year-to-date financing costs, we are improving our full-year guidance to the lower end of the 37 to 40 million euro range this compares to the previous year range the previously targeted range of 40 to 43 million euro.
Speaker #2: We are set to accelerate the impact of the excellence initiatives , which contribute to the targeted profit improvement for the full year . The plan to further drive channel penetration , the contribution from our growth investments and new facilities , and the strength of our innovation pipeline provides support required to target the lower end of our organic growth guidance .
Speaker #2: Next is the evolution of ROIC and value creation. Our ROIC remained robust at 11.1%, which is ahead of our cost of capital. Even in the more challenging profitability environment, the group continues to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital and creates economic value for the shareholders.
Speaker #2: We are reviewing all options for Germany over the next few months to support shareholder value maximization , and we'll share the outcome in due course with the market .
Speaker #2: Our resilient business model and solid cash generation will set us up for the resumption of returning capital to our shareholders in 2027 . So in summary , while the first half was challenging the direction of travel is clear , we are addressing the short term pressure points , accelerating the initiatives which are under our control and our strengthening the financial platform of the group .
Speaker #2: The year-on-year reduction of ROIC is explained by a lower operating profit in the first half. Importantly, the capital base has been well controlled; disciplined capex and efficient working capital management have delivered a stable to slightly declining invested capital base.
Speaker #2: ROIC is lower than last year but remains comfortably above the cost of capital. Moving now to the earnings per share. Earnings per share, at €1.82, is largely stable versus the previous year.
Speaker #2: This gives us confidence to . Target profit improvement for the full year and the lower end of our organic growth guidance Thank you very much .
Speaker #2: And I hand back to earth .
Speaker #1: Thank you , Martin , for this information . We would now continue with Q&A
Speaker #2: The lower operating profit was almost fully compensated by further improved financing costs and a lower tax charge. I will now conclude with our outlook for the full year.
Speaker #3: We will now begin with the question and answer session . Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star one on your telephone .
Speaker #2: While the first half was demanding, particularly in Europe, we have made significant progress in ramping up our cost optimization and efficiency initiatives. These actions are expected to support a stronger profit contribution in the second half and keep us on track to deliver profit improvements for the full year.
Speaker #3: You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the Q if you wish to remove yourself from the question queue , you may press star and two questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode and eventually turn off the volume from a webcast .
Speaker #3: While asking a question . Anyone who has a question , press star one at this time . First question comes from the line of Daniel Bürki from Syria Cantonal Bank .
Speaker #2: We are set to accelerate the impact of the excellence initiatives, which contribute to the targeted profit improvement for the full year. The plan to further drive channel penetration, the contribution from our growth investments and new facilities, and the strength of our innovation pipeline provide the support required to target the lower end of our organic growth guidance.
Speaker #3: Please go ahead Yes .
Speaker #4: Thank you . Can you hear me ?
Speaker #5: Yes , yes , yes .
Speaker #4: Thank you . I would have a question on the European market , especially in retail . Is the shrinkage there ? It's only the market decline or you also walk away from some contracts or did not renew them because they were not attractive enough .
Speaker #2: We are reviewing all options for Germany over the next few months to support shareholder value maximization, and we'll share the outcome in due course with the market.
Speaker #4: That would be my question
Speaker #2: Our resilient business model and solid cash generation will set us up for the resumption of returning capital to our shareholders in 2027. So, in summary, while the first half was challenging, the direction of travel is clear.
Speaker #1: Thank you . Good morning Daniel , again , it's basically the market and the consumer environment . We have good figures and good visibilities in the markets .
Speaker #1: We believe that in many markets we are gaining market share even in Q two . In Germany . But in Germany , the market for H1 for bakery products was short by minus 1% in Value and minus four minus five in volume .
Speaker #2: We are addressing the short-term pressure points, accelerating the initiatives which are under our control, and strengthening the financial platform of the group. This gives us confidence to target profit improvement for the full year and the lower end of our organic growth guidance.
Speaker #2: Thank you very much, and I hand back to Urs.
Speaker #1: So this is this is the main driver of this . So there is no other cancellation of contracts or cooperations . It's clearly a market issue .
Speaker #1: Thank you, Martin. For this information, we will now continue with Q&A.
Speaker #1: We see in this retail business
Speaker #3: We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star one on the telephone.
Speaker #4: Thank you
Speaker #3: The next question comes from the line of Chiara Di Gian Maria from Berenberg . Please go ahead .
Speaker #3: You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.
Speaker #6: Yes . Morning . Thanks for taking my question . I'd like to ask what gives you confidence in achieving the full year guidance ?
Speaker #3: Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode and, if possible, turn off the volume from a webcast while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time.
Speaker #6: Are you already seeing demand acceleration in the beginning of H2 ? And then I also wanted to double check if you have any comment on the mid-term guidance .
Speaker #6: Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thank you for this , Chiara . We have all programs in place . And as you see , our Martin did mention the the markets outside Germany are doing reasonably well .
Speaker #3: The first question comes from Daniel Burkey of Zürcher Kantonalbank. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Yes, thank you. Can you hear me?
Speaker #2: Yes. Yes.
Speaker #4: Yes, thank you. I would have a question on the European market, especially in retail. Is the shrinkage there only the market decline, or did you also walk away from some contracts or not renew them because they were not attractive enough?
Speaker #1: We have good initiatives in place . We have a high share of innovation which are driving a which is driving our positioning in the market .
Speaker #1: On the other hand side , we have this this aggressive cost program , this excellence program , which is delivering good results . We have now addressed almost 50% of the entire manufacturing footprint or the entire volume output by 50% , which is a good , good progress generating there .
Speaker #4: That will be my question.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Good morning, Daniel again. It's basically the market and the consumer environment. We have good figures and good visibility in the markets. We believe that in many markets we are gaining market share, even in Q2 in Germany.
Speaker #1: Good results . That's why we are confident to achieve the guidance we gave on the top line at the lower end , as we have told the markets will remain challenging , mainly in Europe , Europe mainly in retail .
Speaker #1: But in Germany, the market for H14 bakery products was down by 1% in value and down by 4% or 5% in volume. So this is the main driver of this.
Speaker #1: But this has been addressed . This is the the confidence we have .
Speaker #1: So, there is no cancellation of contracts or corporations. It's clearly a market issue we see in this retail business.
Speaker #6: Thank you . And on the mid-term guidance
Speaker #7: , we stay with this for the moment . This is .
Speaker #1: No change . We have , as I told good programs in place . Good initiatives . As we have told . We test options for Germany mid-term plan 28 remains unchanged .
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Speaker #3: The next question comes from the line of Chiara Di Gianmaria from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Speaker #6: Clear . Thank you
Speaker #3: Now , have a question from the line of Marty from UBS . Please go ahead
Speaker #5: Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'd like to ask, what gives you confidence in achieving the full-year guidance? Are you already seeing demand acceleration at the beginning of H2?
Speaker #8: Yes . Hi . Good morning and thank you for taking my questions . The first one would be on Germany . Please . I mean , I would like to understand what happened on pricing , especially .
Speaker #5: And then I also wanted to double-check if you have any comment on the midterm guidance. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you for this, Chiara. We have all programs in place, and, as you already see or as Martin did mention, the markets outside Germany are doing reasonably well.
Speaker #8: So yeah . I mean , what is driving this negative pricing ? Are there over is there potential in sourcing from retailers putting pressure to to prices .
Speaker #8: And any color here would be appreciated . And also my second question would be on . Yeah , considering what you can control , what are the plans to drive growth , especially in Germany , but also elsewhere in 2027 and beyond
Speaker #1: We have good initiatives in place. We have a high share of innovation. Which are driving which is driving our positioning in the market. On the other hand side, we have this aggressive cost program, this excellence program, which is delivering good results.
Speaker #5: Thank you for your question .
Speaker #2: In terms of the first one , look , Germany , no surprise has been always a cost conscious and price competitive market environment .
Speaker #1: We have now addressed almost 50% of the entire manufacturing footprint, or the entire volume output by 50%, which is good progress. This is generating very good results.
Speaker #2: We as for the first half performance , we are not satisfied with the performance there . And that's why we have decided that we will study all options for the German businesses and we will analyze that .
Speaker #1: That's why we are confident we will achieve the guidance we gave. On the top line, at the lower end, as we have said, the markets will remain challenging—mainly in Europe, mainly in retail.
Speaker #2: We come back with the . Once we have concluded the assessment , we'll come back to the market and inform the market about the next steps we are taking .
Speaker #1: But this has been addressed. This is the confidence we have.
Speaker #2: As Louis mentioned , the German market is in decline . That is , the driver of the performance . So it's not about walking away from from contracts .
Speaker #5: Thank you. And on the midterm guidance?
Speaker #1: We stay with this. For the moment, there is no change. We have, as I told, good programs in place, good initiatives. As we have said, we test options for Germany.
Speaker #2: As you have mentioned before already , by the first question of of Daniel and it's also not a topic of of insourcing . So that's the overall summary of what has happened in Germany .
Speaker #1: Midterm planned 28 remains unchanged.
Speaker #5: Clear. Thank you.
Speaker #2: And our actions towards that situation . So we are making sure that we are ahead of the curve and address the points in order to fix the performance and maximize the overall value creation of our business Does that answer your question ?
Speaker #3: And I have a question from the line of Martí Queralt Ferrer from UPS. Please, go ahead.
Speaker #4: Yes, hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one would be on Germany, please. I would like to understand what happened on pricing, especially.
Speaker #4: So yeah, I mean, what is driving this negative pricing? Are there overcapacities? Is there potential insourcing from retailers putting pressure on prices? Any color here would be appreciated.
Speaker #8: Yes . Thank you . And my second one on growth in 2027 and beyond , not not necessarily only in Germany .
Speaker #5: Yeah , I think I would .
Speaker #4: And also, my second question would be, considering what you can control, what are the plans to drive growth, especially in Germany but also elsewhere, in 2027 and beyond?
Speaker #2: Reiterate what I mentioned in the in the presentation . It is about driving general penetration . It is about leveraging the investments that we have done in our new facilities and in our growth CapEx .
Speaker #2: Thank you for the question. In terms of the first one, look, Germany, no surprise, has always been a cost-conscious and price-competitive market environment. As for the first half performance, we are not satisfied with the performance there.
Speaker #2: So , for example , the first factories expected to deliver growth in the second half , and that should help us to improve the performance that we had .
Speaker #2: I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that the second half was in 2025 , was softer than the first half , so therefore we also have an effect of comps and don't forget our continued strong contribution from our innovation program , which has been strong in the first half .
Speaker #2: And that's why we have decided that we will study all options for the German businesses. And we'll analyze that. We come back with the once we have concluded the assessment, we'll come back to the market and inform the market about the next steps we are taking.
Speaker #2: And we expect it to continue to drive contribution to the top line in the second half
Speaker #2: As Ruth has mentioned, the German bread market is in decline. That is the driver of the performance, so it’s not about walking away from contracts, as we have mentioned before already in response to Daniel’s first question.
Speaker #8: That's helpful . Many things
Speaker #3: As a reminder , if you wish to register for a question , please press star and one on your telephone . The next question comes from the line of John Cox from Kepler cheuvreux .
Speaker #2: And it's also not a topic of insourcing. So that's the overall summary of what has happened in Germany, and our actions towards that situation.
Speaker #3: Please go ahead .
Speaker #9: Yeah . Good morning guys . Just coming back to to Germany . I think you said the market overall is down 1% in in value .
Speaker #2: So we are making sure that we are ahead of the curve and address the points in order to fix the performance and maximize the overall value creation of our business.
Speaker #9: And then down 4 or 5 in volume . Was that what I heard ? Because when I look at your interim report and look at the segment reporting , Germany is down , actually almost 10% .
Speaker #9: So just trying to square the circle in terms of you're saying you haven't walked away from any contracts , you've not lost any insourcing , you know , deals or whatever .
Speaker #2: Does that answer your question?
Speaker #4: Yes, thank you. And my second question is about growth in 2027 and beyond, not necessarily only in Germany.
Speaker #9: I'm just wondering why , why are you a German sales down 10% . When I look at your interim report in that segment reporting
Speaker #2: Yeah, I think I would reiterate what I mentioned in the presentation. It is about driving general penetration; it is about leveraging the investments that we have made in our new facilities and in our growth capex.
Speaker #7: There are .
Speaker #1: Several aspects on this . This numbers I did give you the minus one and minus 4 or -5 . These are retail sales .
Speaker #1: We are in Germany in food service as well . And in quick serve restaurant . Now there is in markets like Germany and accelerating effect .
Speaker #2: So, for example, the Earth factories are expected to deliver growth in the second half, and that should help us to improve the performance that we have.
Speaker #1: There are protagonist customers with own manufacturing capacities . And if markets are short they are insourcing . So if the market is short , there is an .
Speaker #2: I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that the second half in 2025 was softer than the first half. So, therefore, we also have an effect of comps.
Speaker #1: They address market for the suppliers . It's becoming is becoming less because some big customers are then insourcing products in their own manufacturing .
Speaker #2: And don't forget our continued strong contribution from our innovation program, which was strong in the first half, and we expect it to continue to drive contribution to the top line in the second half.
Speaker #1: This is the . Or these are the two points you need to consider in this number .
Speaker #9: Okay . And then to come back to this down 10% and I've seen this before with other big food suppliers . Barry caliber , same sort of thing happened .
Speaker #4: That's helpful. Many thanks.
Speaker #9: Volumes down across the board . Everybody started to in-source and that and that put pressure on their on their business . Why should this turnaround in Germany in the second half of the year for you guys to get to , you know , low single digit decline overall in organic sales growth because , you know , if the market is down 4 or 5% , it takes a bit of time to get , you know , their own work off their own capacity again , before coming back to you to , to actually actually do that .
Speaker #3: As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and the one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of John Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Speaker #3: Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Yeah, good morning, guys. Just coming back to Germany, I think you said the market overall is down 1% in value, and then down 4 or 5% in volume.
Speaker #4: Was that what I heard? Because when I look at your interim report, and look at the segment reporting, Germany is down actually almost 10%.
Speaker #9: And maybe it's a bit of an ad , I understand that little and some others are actually , you know , expanding their own capacity over the next year or so .
Speaker #4: So, just trying to square the circle in terms of—you’re saying you haven’t walked away from any contracts, you’ve not lost any insourcing deals or whatever.
Speaker #9: You know , I guess this would impact your own business with them as they would look to fill up that capacity .
Speaker #5: Good morning , John We have indicated .
Speaker #4: I'm just wondering, why are German sales down 10% when I look at your interim report in that segment reporting?
Speaker #2: In the presentation that there is three drivers that will drive the acceleration in the second half . This is channel penetration . This is the contribution from our new facilities that come online and the the overall growth investment that we have concluded over the last couple of years .
Speaker #1: There are several aspects to this. The numbers I gave you—the minus one and minus four or minus five—these are retail sales.
Speaker #1: We are in Germany, in food services as well, and in quick-serve restaurants. Now, there is, in markets like Germany, an accelerating effect. There are protagonist customers with their own manufacturing capacities.
Speaker #2: And I will continued strong contribution from our innovation activities . Then there is a technical effect . There is lower comps in the second half , and we have , as I mentioned , we have some of the seven retail markets .
Speaker #1: And if markets are short, they are insourcing. So if the market is short, there is an addressable market for the suppliers. It's becoming less because some big customers are then reinsourcing products into their own manufacturing.
Speaker #2: We are measuring on a consistent basis where we see strong performance . So we have three markets that are outperforming the market . We have two markets that are catching up to the to the market momentum .
Speaker #1: These are the two points you need to consider in this number.
Speaker #2: That gives us confidence that we have the the positions and the , the pieces in place to , to drive a strong growth performance in the second half .
Speaker #4: Okay. And then to come back to this down 10%, I've seen this before with other big food suppliers. Barry Callebaut—the same sort of thing happened.
Speaker #2: And as we have mentioned , we will review all options for Germany . We will do that analysis . We will come back to the markets once that's concluded and let the market know what the next steps are for Germany
Speaker #4: Volumes are down across the board. Everybody started to insource, and that put pressure on their business. Why should this turn around in Germany in the second half of the year for you guys to get to a low single-digit decline overall in organic sales growth?
Speaker #9: Just just on Germany . And you've talked about the fact that next year you'll start to return cash to shareholders , either dividend or a buyback in terms of Germany , if you have to start closing factories , it's not it's not a cheap thing to do .
Speaker #4: Because if the market is down 4% or 5%, it takes a bit of time for them to get their own work off their own capacity again before coming back to you to actually do that.
Speaker #4: And maybe it's a bit of an add. I understand that Lidl and some others are actually expanding their own capacity over the next year or so.
Speaker #9: Yeah . I'm just wondering what would the impact of that be on generation for you and your ability to pay , you know , a dividend or do buybacks next year ?
Speaker #4: I guess this would impact your own business with them, as they would look to fill up that capacity.
Speaker #9: If , say , you're closing a couple of your factories in Germany and or you do a full exit , and then maybe you have to write down all of these , these assets or effectively , you know , maybe you can't really monetize much of what's actually in Germany at the moment .
Speaker #2: Good morning, John. We have indicated in the presentation that, let's say, there are three drivers that will drive the acceleration in the second half.
Speaker #5: John , as I said .
Speaker #2: We are assessing all options . We are running this analysis . And once we have concluded these analysis and this assessment , we'll come back to the market and let the market know about the next steps .
Speaker #2: This is general penetration; this is the contribution from our new facilities that have come online, and the overall growth investment that we have concluded over the last couple of years.
Speaker #9: Do you have any rough time scale for when this sort of review will be concluded ?
Speaker #2: And our continued strong contribution from our innovation activities. Then there is a technical effect—there are lower comps in the second half. And, as I mentioned, we have some of the seven retail markets we are measuring on a consistent basis, where we see strong performance.
Speaker #2: You can expect that this is sometime in the second half of this year .
Speaker #9: Okay , maybe just the last one on the on the rest of the world business . You have capacity coming on there . Maybe organic sales growth was a little bit more subdued than some of us expected with that new capacity coming on , is it just maybe the capacity is not coming on as fast as you anticipated in the rest of the world ?
Speaker #2: So we have three markets that are outperforming the market. We have two markets that are catching up to the market momentum. That gives us confidence that we have the positions.
Speaker #2: I think I think you heard me say in the presentation before that we expect Perth factory to contribute to the revenue performance in the second half and I would call it that .
Speaker #2: And the pieces are in place to drive strong growth performance in the second half. And as we have mentioned, we will review all options for Germany.
Speaker #2: This is running in line with expectations
Speaker #2: We will do that analysis. We will come back to the markets once that's concluded, and let the market know what the next steps are for Germany.
Speaker #9: Okay . Thank you very much
Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen , that was the last question . I would now like to turn the conference back over to earth for any closing remarks
Speaker #4: Just on Germany, you've talked about the fact that next year you'll start to return cash to shareholders, either through a dividend or a buyback. In terms of Germany, if you have to start closing factories...
Speaker #1: Thank you for this . Thank you for joining . We are here to answer questions . We will have our meeting today . Maybe one or the other will have the opportunity to meet us in person today .
Speaker #4: It's not a cheap thing to do. I'm just wondering, what would the impact of that be on cash generation for you and your ability to pay a dividend or do buybacks next year if, say, you're closing a couple of your factories in Germany?
Speaker #4: And/or you do a full exit, and then maybe you have to write down all of these assets, or effectively maybe you can't really monetize much of what's actually in Germany at the moment.
Speaker #2: John, as I said, we are assessing all options. We are running these analyses, and once we have concluded these analyses and assessments, we'll come back to the market and let the market know about the next steps.
Speaker #4: Do you have any rough timescale for when this sort of review will be concluded?
Speaker #2: You can expect that this will be sometime in the second half of this year.
Speaker #4: Okay, maybe just the last one. On the Rest of World business, you have capacity coming on there. Maybe organic sales growth was a little bit more, with capacity coming on.
Speaker #4: Is it just maybe the capacity is not coming on as fast as you anticipated in the rest of the world?
Speaker #2: I think you heard me say in the presentation before that we expect Earth Factory to contribute to the revenue performance in the second half.
Speaker #2: And I would say that this is running in line with expectations.
Speaker #4: Okay. Thank you very much.
Speaker #2: Yep.
Speaker #3: David and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to our host for any closing remarks.
Speaker #1: Thank you for this. Thank you for joining. We are here to answer questions. We will have our meeting today—maybe one or the other will have the opportunity to meet us in person today.
Speaker #1: I wish you a good day and a good week. Goodbye.
Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Carls Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines.
