Q2 2026 Banco Bbva Argentina SA Earnings Call
Speaker #2: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Argentina's second quarter 2026 results conference call. Today with us are Mrs. Belen Forcade, Investor Relations Manager, and Diego Cesarini, IRO and Head of Asset and Liability Management.
Belén Fourcade: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Argentina Q2 2026 results conference call. Today with us are Belén Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager, Diego Cesarini, IRO and Head of Assets and Liability Management, and Carmen Morillo Arroyo, CFO. This presentation and the Q2 2026 earnings release are available on BBVA Argentina's investor relations website, ir.bbva.com.ar, and will also be available for download in the chat. First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements with the meaning of the safe harbor provision found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under US Federal Securities Law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
Speaker #2: And Carmen Morillo Arroyo, CFO. This presentation and the second quarter 2026 earnings release are available on BBVA Argentina's investor relations website, ir.bbva.com.ar, and will also be available for download in the chat.
Speaker #2: First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the safe harbor provision found in Section 27(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, under U.S. law.
Speaker #2: These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
Speaker #2: Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2025, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Belén Fourcade: Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual reports on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2025, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. During the company's presentation, all microphone will be disabled. At this time, we are going to open it up for questions and answers. If you have a question, please raise hand for audio questions. You will then receive a request to activate your microphone. Please activate it and pick it up for your headset to provide optimum sound quality when posing your question. I will now turn the call over to Belén Fourcade. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: During the company's presentation, all microphones will be disabled. At this time, we are going to open it up for questions and answers. If you have a question, please raise your hand for audio questions.
Speaker #2: We will then receive a request to activate your microphone. Please activate it and pick it up from your headset to provide optimum sound quality when posting your question.
Speaker #2: I will now turn the call over to Belen Forcade. Please, go ahead.
Speaker #3: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for BBVA Argentina's second quarter 2026 results conference call. During the second quarter of 2026, inflation continued to decline, reinforcing expectations that this trend will further consolidate.
Belén Fourcade: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for BBVA Argentina's Q2 2026 results conference call. During the Q2 2026, inflation continued to decline, reinforcing expectations that this trend will further consolidate. This environment should support a recovery in credit and consumption, together with an improvement in real income. Economic activity, while showing differences across sectors, is displaying signs of overall growth. In addition, announcements and approvals of projects under the RIGI continued, totaling more than $15 billion during the quarter, with the potential to increase capital inflows and strengthen the trade balance. The Treasury also made progress in improving its debt maturity profile. It extended a significant portion of local currency maturities to 2028 and 2029, and in foreign currency, lengthened the maturities of repo agreements with banks and the swap agreement with China, while also securing financing backed by the IFI guarantees.
Speaker #3: This environment should support a recovery in credit and consumption, together with an improvement in real income. Economic activity, while showing differences across sectors, is displaying signs of overall growth.
Speaker #3: In addition, announcements and approvals of projects under the RIGI continued, totaling more than $15 billion during the quarter, with the potential to increase capital inflows and strengthen the trade balance.
Speaker #3: The Treasury also made progress in improving its debt maturity profile. It extended a significant portion of local currency maturities to 2028 and 2029 and, in foreign currency, lengthened the maturities of repo agreements with banks and the swap agreement with China, while also securing financing backed by IFI guarantees.
Speaker #3: This development, together with reserve purchases of more than $13 billion, is helping to reduce uncertainty and strengthen the macroeconomic outlook. The second quarter showed early signs of a recovery in lending activity, gradually reflecting the effects of the decline in interest rates and more favorable seasonality, although still affected by elevated delinquency levels.
Belén Fourcade: These developments, together with reserve purchases of more than $13 billion, are helping to reduce uncertainty and strengthen the macroeconomic outlook. The Q2 showed early signs of a recovery in lending activity, gradually reflecting the effects of the decline in interest rates and more favorable seasonality, although still affected by elevated delinquency levels. Moving into our financial highlights for the quarter, BBVA Argentina posted an inflation-adjusted net income of ARS 131.6 billion for the Q2 of 2026. This represents a 44.6% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by the operating income remaining relatively stable in a lower inflation environment. This bottom-line expansion boosted our quarterly ROE to 12.2%. In spite of net interest income being affected by lower rates on the asset side, our reported NIM remained stable quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. NIM net of monetary position loss improved from 14% to 14.7%.
Speaker #3: Moving into our financial highlights for the quarter, BBVA Argentina posted an inflation-adjusted net income of $131.6 billion for the second quarter of 2026. This represents a 44.6% increase quarter over quarter, driven by operating income remaining relatively stable in a lower inflation environment.
Speaker #3: This bottom line expansion boosted our quarterly ROE to 12.2%. In spite of net interest income being affected by lower rates on the asset side, our reported NIM remained stable quarter over quarter, and year over year.
Speaker #3: NIM net of monetary position loss improved from 14% to 14.87%. Regarding efficiency, our quarterly efficiency ratio stood at 45%, with personnel benefits and administrative expenses reflecting the ongoing management of our corporate structure, and also some costs declining related to lagging activity.
Belén Fourcade: Regarding efficiency, our quarterly efficiency ratio stood at 45%, with personal benefits and administrative expenses reflecting the ongoing management of our corporate structure, and also some costs declining related to lagging activity. Let's look at the dynamics of our balance sheet and credit portfolio. Total financing to the private sector closed the quarter at ARS 17.1 trillion. While local currency loans increased 2%, our foreign currency private loans grew by 2.5% sequentially, equivalent to a 2% increase in hard currency. Mortgage lending continues to gain momentum. Furthermore, we are successfully capturing business, mainly driven by the commercial segment and foreign currency loans. Our consolidated loan market share stood at 12%, signaling a total gain of 15 basis points over the last 12 months. On the funding side, total deposits reached ARS 19.2 trillion. Private deposit market share remained flat at 9.91%, but up 26 basis points year-over-year.
Speaker #3: Let's look at the dynamics of our balance sheet and credit portfolio. Total financing to the private sector closed the quarter at $17.1 trillion, while local currency loans increased 2%.
Speaker #3: Our foreign currency private loans grew by 2.5% sequentially, equivalent to a 2% increase in hard currency. Mortgage lending continues to gain momentum. Furthermore, we are successfully capturing business, mainly driven by the commercial segment and foreign currency loans.
Speaker #3: Our consolidated loan market share stood at 12%, signaling a total gain of 15 basis points over the last 12 months. On the funding side, total deposits reached $19.2 trillion. Private deposit market share remained flat at 9.91%, but is up 26 basis points year over year.
Speaker #3: With regard to asset quality, although non-performing loan levels remain elevated, we can identify signs of improvement in certain indicators, such as early-stage delinquencies. BBVA's NPL ratio stood at 6.09%, up 49 basis points during the quarter.
Belén Fourcade: With regard to asset quality, although non-performing loan levels remain elevated, we can identify signs of improvement in certain indicators, such as early-stage delinquencies. BBVA's NPL ratio stood at 6.09%, up 49 basis points during the quarter. The financial system ratio was 7.22% by the end of June, increasing 54 basis points since March. BBVA's quarterly cost of risk reached 7.13%, broadly in line with the Q1 figure when adjusted for non-recurring effects. Looking at solvency and liquidity, our liquidity ratio closed at a very comfortable 45.5%. More importantly, our capital position remains robust, with a regulatory capital ratio of 18.8%, representing 128.7% excess over minimum regulatory requirements. In conclusion, as we head into the H2 of 2026, BBVA Argentina is well-positioned, supported by robust capital levels, strong liquidity, and healthy operating results.
Speaker #3: The financial system ratio was 7.22% by the end of June, increasing 54 basis points since March. BBVA's quarterly cost of risk reached 7.13%, broadly in line with the first quarter figure when adjusted for non-recurring effects.
Speaker #3: Looking at solvency and liquidity, our liquidity ratio closed at a very comfortable 45.5%. More importantly, our capital position remains robust, with a regulatory capital ratio of 18.8%, representing a 128.7% excess over minimum regulatory requirements.
Speaker #3: In conclusion, as we head into the second half of 2026, BBVA Argentina is well positioned, supported by robust capital levels, strong liquidity, and healthy operating results.
Speaker #3: We remain fully equipped to lead the market and support credit supply as the financial system in Argentina continues to normalize.
Belén Fourcade: We remain fully equipped to lead the market and support credit supply as the financial system in Argentina continues to normalize. Thank you for your time and for your continued support. I would like now to turn the call over to Carmen Morillo, our CFO, for some closing remarks.
Speaker #1: Thank you for your time and for your continued support. I would now like to turn the call over to Carmen Mauricio, our CFO, for some closing remarks.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Belen. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we move to the Q&A, I would like to spend a few minutes sharing our view for the second half of the year, both for Argentina and for BBVA.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Thank you, Belén. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we move to the Q&A, I would like to spend a few minutes sharing our view for the H2 of the year, both for Argentina and for BBVA. Starting with the macro, in our view, it remains constructive. The economy continues to normalize. Fiscal discipline remains an important anchor. Inflation is coming down. The external accounts are improving, and the financial system is gradually converging after many years of very low financial intermediation. This process will be not linear, and there are still important differences across sectors. We believe the overall direction remains positive. We expect inflation to end 2026 at around 29%, with monthly inflation moving toward 1.5% to 2% range. Beyond these numbers, we remain confident in Argentina's medium and long-term potential. Energy, mining, and agriculture are already making a growing contribution to exports and investments.
Speaker #4: Starting with the macro, our view, so in our view, it remains constructive. The economy continues to normalize, fiscal discipline remains an important anchor, inflation is coming down, the external accounts are improving, and the financial system is gradually converging after many years of very low financial intermediation.
Speaker #4: This process will not be linear, and there are still important differences across sectors, but we believe the overall direction remains positive. We expect inflation to end 2026 at around 29%, with monthly inflation moving toward the 1.5% to 2% range.
Speaker #4: Beyond this number, we remain confident in Argentina's medium- and long-term potential. Energy, mining, and agriculture are already making a growing contribution to exports and investments.
Speaker #4: The large projects under the RIGI framework should further increase Argentina's productive and export capacity, and create opportunities across the value chains. Here, being part of a global bank is an important competitive advantage for us.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: The large projects under the RIGI framework should further increase Argentina's productive and export capacity and create opportunities across the value chain. Here, being part of a global bank is an important competitive advantage for us. We can combine our international capabilities with our strong local presence to support large investment projects and the companies around them. Turning to banking activity, Argentina still has a very low credit penetration, as we all know. This gives the financial system significant room to grow as inflation and interest rates normalize and real income recover. After a relatively soft start of the year, lending activity showed some improvement in Q2, and we expect activity to continue improving gradually during the H2. For 2026, we expect our loan book to grow around 10% in real terms. We see opportunities across the businesses.
Speaker #4: We can combine our international capabilities with our strong local presence to support large investment projects and the companies around them. Turning to banking activity, Argentina still has a very low credit penetration, as you all know.
Speaker #4: This gives the financial system significant room to grow as inflation and interest rates normalize, and real income recovers. After a relatively soft start to the year, lending activity showed some improvement in the second quarter, and we expect activity to continue improving gradually during the second half.
Speaker #4: For 2026, we expect our loan book to grow around 10% in real terms. We see opportunities across the businesses, in retail mainly in secured lending, and with customers where we have strong visibility on income.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: In retail, mainly in secure lending and customers, where we have a strong visibility on income. In companies and SMEs, particularly in the more dynamic sectors of the economy. We will pursue this growth with discipline, maintaining our focus on credit quality and risk-adjusted returns. On funding, we are on a very comfortable position. We have a strong liquidity, and we do not see funding as a constraint to growth. Rather than targeting a specific level for deposit growth, we will manage deposits according to our funding needs and the opportunities we see in the asset side. On margins, we expect some moderate pressure on our activity in NIM in pesos as interest rates decline. However, at the P&L level, this should be partially offset by the positive impact of lower inflation. The currency mix will also matter, of course.
Speaker #4: And in companies and SMEs, particularly in the more dynamic sectors of the economy, we will pursue this growth with discipline, maintaining our focus on credit quality and risk-adjusted returns.
Speaker #4: On funding, we are in a very comfortable position. We have strong liquidity, and we do not see funding as a constraint to growth.
Speaker #4: So, rather than targeting a specific level for deposit growth, we will manage deposits according to our funding needs and the opportunities we see on the asset side.
Speaker #4: On margins, we expect some moderate pressure on our activity and NIM in pesos, as interest rates decline. However, at the P&L level, this should be partially offset by the positive impact of lower inflation.
Speaker #4: The currency mix will also matter, of course. If dollar-denominated business gains weight in our balance sheet, consolidated margins could be somewhat lowered. Although we don't expect these effects to be significant—at least in the short term.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: If dollar-denominated business gains weight in our balance sheet, consolidated margins could be somewhat lower. Although we don't expect this effect to be significant, at least in the short-term. On fees, the underlying trend remains very positive. The quarter-over-quarter comparison is affected by some one-off records in Q1. But excluding this effect, fee income continues to show a strong growth. Net fees are up around 35% year-over-year, reflecting the good progress we are making across our main fee-generating business. We expect fees to remain an important contributor to revenue growth going forward. Moving to asset quality, the recent indicators are encouraging. Our NPL ratio ended June at around 6%, and cost of risk was 7.1%. These figures still reflected the deterioration of previous quarters, while some of the more recent indicators are already moving in a better direction.
Speaker #4: On fees, the underlying trend remains very positive. The quarter over quarter comparison is affected by some 1 of 3 quarters in the first quarter, but excluding these effects, the income continues to show a strong growth.
Speaker #4: Net fees are up around 35% year over year, reflecting the good progress we are making across our main fee-generating business. We expect fees to remain an important contributor to revenue growth going forward.
Speaker #4: Moving to asset quality, the recent indicators are encouraging. Our NPL ratio ended June at around 6%, and cost of risk was 7.1%. These figures still reflect the degradation of previous quarters, while some of the more recent indicators are already moving in a better direction.
Speaker #4: Earlier years are improving, and recent vintages are performing better after the changes we made to underwriting and origination. Based on what we see today, we expect NPLs to stabilize and then gradually improve during the second half, ending the year at around 5.5%.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Earlier arrears are improving, and recent vintages are performing better after the changes we made to underwriting and origination. Based on what we see today, we expect NPLs to stabilize and then gradually improve during the H2, ending the year at around 5.5%. For full year 2026, we expect cost of risk to be around 6.5. Our coverage ratio ended the quarter at around 80%. When looking at this ratio, it is important to consider our historical recovery experience, which is around 25% of loans in arrears being recovered before write-offs. In this context, we consider the current level of coverage adequate. We expect 80% level to be the bottom for this ratio, and from here to gradually rebuild coverage as asset quality improves. Overall, we remain prudent on the timing, but we are increasingly confident about the direction of the asset quality.
Speaker #4: For full-year 2026, we expect cost of risk to be around 6.5%. Our coverage ratio ended the quarter at around 80%. When looking at this ratio, it is important to consider our historical recovery experience, which is around 25% of loans in arrears being recovered before write-offs.
Speaker #4: In this context, we consider the current level of coverage adequate. We expect the 80% level to be the bottom for this ratio, and from here, to gradually rebuild coverage as asset quality improves.
Speaker #4: Overall, we remain prudent on the timing, but we are increasingly confident about the direction of asset quality. On efficiency, the progress is already clear.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: On efficiency, the progress is already clear. Our quarterly efficiency ratio improved to 45% in the Q2, and we remain very focused on cost discipline and operating leverage. For the full year, we expect the efficiency ratio to end below 45%. We will continue to be ambitious quarter after quarter as volume recovers. Finally, let's talk about profitability. Our quarterly ROE improved to 12.2% in the Q2 from 8.3% in the first one. For the full year, we continue to expect a real ROE in the low teens level, consistent with the guidance we have been providing in previous quarters. Going forward, higher business volumes, positive contribution from fees, continuous efficiency improvement, and a gradual normalization of credit costs should support profitability. There may still be volatility between quarters, but we believe the underlying trend is very positive.
Speaker #4: Our quarterly efficiency ratio improved to 45% in the second quarter, and we remain very focused on cost discipline and operating leverage. For the full year, we expect the efficiency ratio to end below 45%.
Speaker #4: We will continue to be ambitious quarter after quarter as volume recovers. Finally, let's talk about profitability. Our quarterly ROE improved to 12.2% in the second quarter, up from 8.3% in the first.
Speaker #4: For the full year, we continue to expect a real ROE in the low teens, consistent with the guidance we have been providing in previous quarters.
Speaker #4: Going forward, higher business volumes, positive contributions from fees, continued efficiency improvements, and a gradual normalization of credit costs should support profitability. There may still be volatility between quarters, but we believe the underlying trend is very positive.
Speaker #4: So, to summarize, we remain constructive on Argentina and on BBVA's outlook for the second half. We expect this real loan growth to be around 10%. On funding, our strong liquidity gives us flexibility to manage deposits according to the growth opportunities we see.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: To summarize, we remain constructive on Argentina and on BBVA's outlook for the H2. We expect this real loan around 10%. On funding, our strong liquidity gives us flexibility to manage deposits according to the growth opportunities we see. We expect moderate pressure on activity margins, partially compensated at the P&L level by lower inflation, while fees should continue to provide a positive contribution to revenues. Asset quality indicators are starting to move in the right direction. We expect to end the year with an efficiency ratio below 45%, and we continue to drive for the real ROE in low teens. We enter this phase with a strong position, with a CET1 ratio of 18.8% and a strong liquidity, and we have the capability to capture growth opportunities while maintaining a prudent approach to risk.
Speaker #4: We expect moderate pressure on activity margins, partially compensated at the P&L level by lower inflation, while fees should continue to provide a positive contribution to revenues.
Speaker #4: Asset quality indicators are starting to move in the right direction. We expect to end the year with an efficiency ratio below 45%, and we continue to guide for the real ROE in the low teens.
Speaker #4: And we enter this phase with a strong position, with a CET1 ratio of 18.8% and strong liquidity. We have the capability to capture growth opportunities while maintaining a prudent approach to risk.
Speaker #4: We believe BBVA is well-positioned for the next phase of Argentina's economic cycle. And with that, we can move to your questions. Happy to hear them.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: We believe BBVA is well-positioned for the next phase of Argentina's economic cycle. With that, we can move to your questions. Happy to hear.
Speaker #1: We will now open the floor for questions. If you have a question, please click on the 'Raise Hand' button for audio questions. Our first question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
Belén Fourcade: We will now open the floor for questions. If you have a question, please click on Raise Hand button for audio questions. Our first question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
Brian Flores: Hi, team. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have one on asset quality. Carmen, I know the bank is already focused in corporate loans, and I wanted to just get your thoughts on what do you think explains this deterioration. Do you think it is the uneven distribution of the recovery in the economy, or what do you think explains this cost? Because on paper, the thing we can see is you have been already cautious in your allocation in the loan book. Just wanted to check with you, looking backwards, what do you think explains this deterioration in asset quality? In my second question, just a follow-up. You mentioned for the end of the year, maybe cost of risk around 6.5.
Speaker #5: Hi, team. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have one on asset quality. Carmen, I know the bank is already focused on corporate loans.
Speaker #5: And I wanted to just get your thoughts on what you think explains this deterioration. Do you think it's the uneven distribution of the recovery in the economy?
Speaker #5: Or what do you think explains this cost? Because on paper, the thing we can see is you have already been cautious in your allocation in the loan book.
Speaker #5: So, I just wanted to check with you—looking backwards, what do you think explains this deterioration in asset quality? And then, my second question is just a follow-up: you mentioned for the end of the year, maybe cost of risk around 6.5%.
Speaker #5: I just wanted to check with you if, directionally, the improvement should be sequential. That means lower from the 7.1, and then we go anywhere between that and 6.5, or do you think the third quarter is still under pressure and then we drop more sharply in the fourth quarter?
Brian Flores: Just wanted to check with you if directionally, the improvement should be sequential, that means lower from the 7.1, and then we go anywhere between that and 6.5, or do you think the Q3 still is pressure, and then we drop more sharply in the Q4? Thank you.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #4: Hi, Brian. Thank you for your questions. So, regarding your first question at the beginning, you mentioned the corporates. I don't really get why. In the corporate segment, we see zero deterioration.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Hi, Brian. Thank you for your questions. The first question, at the beginning, you mentioned the corporates. I do not really get why. In the corporate segment, we see zero deterioration. We are expecting to grow there as much as we can, depending on the demand on credit. In that segment and also in companies, so small to medium companies, we are outperforming the market, and we are comfortable with that position. Going to the retail side, what we have been doing is, as you know, be more focused on recovery from one side, on origination on the other side. What we see, as I mentioned before, is that new vintages are performing better. The quality of the assets is still not so good as we want to see in personal loans and credit cards.
Speaker #4: So we are expecting to grow there as much as we can, depending on the demand for credit, both in that segment and also in companies.
Speaker #4: So, small to medium companies—we are outperforming the market, and we are comfortable with that position. Going to the retail side, what we've been doing is, as you know, being more focused on recoveries on one side, and on origination on the other side.
Speaker #4: And what we see, as I mentioned before, is that new vintages are performing better. Still, the quality of the assets is not as good as we want to see in personal loans and credit cards.
Speaker #4: So these are the two portfolios where we are more cautious on growing, and we will wait a bit more to see better performance on that.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: So these are the two portfolios where we are more cautious on growing, and we will wait a bit more to see the better performance on that. Of course, when you split between, for example, payrolls and clients, things are much better there than non-clients or non-payroll clients. As I mentioned, we will be cautious on those segments. Then, related to the trend for this year, what we see is that, coming from actual levels for Q3, we see a slight better performance, and then a better one in the fourth one. So what we see is like the thick NPL and also cost of risk in Q2, and then a slightly better performance in Q3 and a better one in the last quarter to get this average cost of risk I was mentioning.
Speaker #4: Of course, when you split between, for example, payrolls and clients, things are much better there than with non-clients or non-payroll clients. So, as I mentioned, we will be cautious on those segments.
Speaker #4: And then, related to the trend for this year, what we see is that, coming from actual levels for the third quarter, we see a slightly better performance, and then a better one in the fourth one.
Speaker #4: So what we see is the peak MPL and also the cost of risk in the second quarter, then a slightly better performance in the third quarter, and an even better one in the last quarter, to get this average cost of risk I was mentioning.
Speaker #5: No, super clear. And then, if I may, just a quick follow-up. You mentioned that the levels of coverage will be recovered gradually. Obviously, in the last few years, we have seen a decrease from what I would say were very extraordinarily high levels. But I just wanted to check with you if, I don't know, if you have a target in mind or any level that you would feel more comfortable with, maybe by the end of '27.
Brian Flores: No, super clear. Then if I may, just a quick follow-up. You mentioned the levels of coverage that will be recovered gradually.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Yes.
Brian Flores: Obviously, in the last years, we have seen the decrease, I would say, from very extraordinarily high levels. But just wanted to check with you if, I don't know, if you have a target in mind or any level that you would feel more comfortable with maybe by the end of 2027. Is it, I don't know, above 100%, 101 something, or do you think it is more of a stable around the 100 level? Any, I think, idea here would be very helpful. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Is it, I don't know, above 100%? 100 and something? Or do you think it's more of a stable around the 100 level? Any, I think, idea here would be very helpful.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #4: Okay. So, as I mentioned, we expect this 80% level to be the bottom of the ratio and, from here on, to gradually rebuild the coverage ratio.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Okay. As I mentioned, we expect this 80% level to be the bottom of the ratio, and from here on to gradually rebuild the coverage ratio as asset quality improves. I don't know if 100% is the level for next quarter, but we should see better levels in the following quarters.
Speaker #4: As asset quality improves, I don't know if 100% is the level for next quarter, but we should see better levels in the following quarters.
Speaker #5: Thank you, Carmen and team.
Brian Flores: Thank you, Carmen and team.
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Juliano Hara with Goldman Sachs.
Belén Fourcade: Our next question comes from Juliana Hora with Goldman Sachs.
Speaker #6: Hi everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a quick follow-up on asset quality. I was wondering if you could somehow share the magnitude of the improvement in the early vintages that you're seeing.
Juliana Hora: Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a quick follow-up on asset quality. I was wondering if you could somehow share the magnitude of the improvement in the early vintages that you're seeing. Also, I don't know if I'm getting ahead, but if you already have some views for 2027 on loan growth and maybe an early ROE expectation would also be great. Thank you.
Speaker #6: And also, I don't know if I'm getting ahead, but if you could—if you already have some views for 2027 on loan growth, and maybe an early ROE expectation, that would also be great.
Speaker #6: Thank you.
Speaker #5: 2027 of recovery in the early vintages.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: In terms of recovery in the early vintages.
Speaker #4: So sorry, Juliana. Thank you for your question. So, the first one was—so it's related to the vintages. So, the...
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Sorry, Juliana. Thank you for your question. The first one, it is related to the vintages?
Speaker #6: Yes, it was related to whether you could share the magnitude of the improvements in asset quality that you mentioned earlier in the new vintages.
Juliana Hora: Yeah. It was related to if you could share the magnitude of the improvements in the asset quality that you mentioned in the new vintages.
Speaker #4: So as I was mentioning, so you have to split payroll, non-payroll, and different products. We are so the signals we are having are maybe too early to get to a conclusion, but what we see is that from, I don't know, from levels in credit cards, of around 6% a year ago, we are near to 2% to 0.2% this year.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: As I was mentioning, you have to split payroll, non-payroll, and different products. These segments we are having our main floor to get to a conclusion. But what we see is that, I don't know, from levels in credit cards of around 6% a year ago, we are near 2.2% this year. It is difficult to get an exact figure there, but what I can say is that we see a constant better figure on a monthly base in these two portfolios. And maybe it is useful to know that in personal loans, and also in credit cards, we are already in the payroll portfolio in levels similar to December 2024. So there we are already comfortable with what we see.
Speaker #4: So it's difficult to get an exact figure there, but what I can say is that we see a constant, better figure on a monthly basis.
Speaker #4: In these two portfolios, and maybe it's useful to know that in personal loans, and also in credit cards, we are already in the payroll portfolio.
Speaker #4: In levels, similar to December 2024. So there, we are already comfortable with what we see. So these signals are the ones we were waiting for to start growing, as I mentioned, in clients.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: These segments are the ones we were waiting for to start growing, as I mentioned, in clients that we know their income, and moreover, that we have this payroll, is also really important for us.
Speaker #4: Knowing their income, and moreover, having this payroll information is also really important for us.
Speaker #6: Yeah, thank you. And do you already have any expectations for 2027?
Juliana Hora: Yeah. Thank you. Do you already have any expectations for 2027?
Speaker #4: So maybe it's a little bit soon to answer that question, but what we expect for the system is real growth around 10% to 15%, and we will be above that.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Maybe it's a little bit soon to answer that question. But what we expect for the system is a real growth around 10% to 15%, and we will be above that. We want to outperform the market. But yeah, something above this level for sure. Maybe next quarter we can have some more color on this.
Speaker #4: We want to outperform the market. But yes, something above this level for sure. So maybe next quarter we can have some more color on this.
Speaker #6: Yeah, super helpful. Thank you so much.
Juliana Hora: Yeah. Super helpful. Thank you so much.
Speaker #1: Next question comes from Eduardo Heisenji with UBS.
Belén Fourcade: Next question comes from Eduardo Rezende with UBS.
Speaker #5: Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two on my side as well. The first one, I would like to ask about the portfolio mix that you expect for the coming quarters.
Eduardo Rezende: Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two on my side as well. The first one, I would like to ask a color on the portfolio mix that you expect for the coming quarters. Mortgage loans were a positive highlight in Q2, and more recently, the government announced a new funding program backed by FGS resources. I would like to know the appetite to grow in retail mortgage, and how relevant this new program from the government could be to BBVA. This is the first question. The second one is regarding the NIM. You mentioned that some pressure is expected as rates and inflation continues to decline, but could you provide some color on what levels could we see for the coming quarters and for 2026? That is all from my side. Thank you.
Speaker #5: I mean, mortgage loans were a positive highlight in the second quarter, and more recently, the government announced a new funding program backed by FGS resources.
Speaker #5: So, I would like to know about the appetite to grow in retail mortgage, and how relevant these new programs from the government could be to BBVA.
Speaker #5: So this is the first question. And the second one is regarding the NIMs. You mentioned some pressures expected as rates and inflation continue to decline.
Speaker #5: But could you provide some color on what levels we could see for the coming quarters and for 2026? That's all from my side. Thank you.
Speaker #7: Hi Eduardo, this is Diego. On your first question regarding the mix of the portfolio, we've been growing in the last quarters more on commercials, which now represent approximately 57% of our portfolio.
Diego Cesarini: Hi, Eduardo. This is Diego. On your first question regarding the mix of portfolio, we have been growing in the last quarters more on commercials, that represent approximately 57% of our portfolio. But that growth has somewhat stabilized as these kind of loans have already stalled and are not growing so much. For the coming quarters, we are seeing that the retail portfolio has touched some floor on growth. So we are seeing some recovery, especially, as you mentioned, in mortgages. Probably also on car loans, but gradually also consumer and credit cards. As Carmen said, we are seeing some signs of improvement on credit quality, so it could be possible to start growing a little in the coming quarters. Anyway, mortgages and pledges will gain traction with more speed and will represent a bigger share of that retail portfolio.
Speaker #7: But that growth has somewhat stabilized, as these kinds of loans have already stalled and are not growing so much. For the coming quarters, we are seeing that the retail portfolio has touched some floor on growth.
Speaker #7: So, we are seeing some recovery, especially, as you mentioned, in mortgages—probably also on car loans. But gradually, also consumer and credit cards, as Carmen said. Well, we are seeing some signs of improvement in credit quality.
Speaker #7: So it could be possible to start growing a little in the coming quarters. But anyway, mortgages and pledges will gain traction, with more speed, and will represent a bigger share of that retail portfolio.
Speaker #7: Nowadays, both of them—if you take mortgages and car loans—represent around 27% of that retail portfolio. Probably, that percentage should grow in the coming quarters.
Diego Cesarini: Nowadays, both of them, if you take mortgages and car loans, they represent around 27% of that retail portfolio. Probably, that percentage should grow in the coming quarters. But we will also make efforts to grow in commercial. As Carmen said, we are seeing that credit quality on those segments is good. Of course, we have not seen too much demand on the first part of the year, but we think that seasonally, that first part of the year is the worst. Rates have fallen a lot during these past months, so we should expect some pickup in activity there, too. We have been telling the market that we are focused on companies, on mid-size companies especially, so we will be there. Regarding currencies, we have been growing in the past a little more in the ARS activity.
Speaker #7: But we will also make efforts to grow in commercial. As Carmen said, we are seeing that credit quality in those segments is good. Of course, we have not seen too much demand in the first part of the year, but we think that seasonally, that first part of the year is the worst.
Speaker #7: Rates have fallen a lot during these past months, so we should expect some pickup in activity there too. And we are focused—we have been telling the market that we are focused—on companies, on midsize companies especially.
Speaker #7: So we will be there. Regarding currencies, we have been growing in the past a little more in the dollar activity. Probably, that could be the trend in the future, but at a much slower pace.
Diego Cesarini: Probably, that could be the trend in the future, but at very slower pace. We are not seeing that mix of dollar peso will change dramatically in the coming quarters. Regarding these mortgages, the bank has been active in the past quarters. We have been growing. We have been selling approximately 20% of the new origination in the past four or five months. We intend to keep that track for the coming months. We see with good eyes this new program that the government has implemented, because, of course, in Argentina, there are no institutional investors, and having the ANSES doing that job, I think it is good for the market. So we will participate in the program.
Speaker #7: We are not seeing that the mix of dollar and peso will change dramatically in the coming quarters. And regarding these mortgages, the bank has been active in the past quarters.
Speaker #7: We have been growing. We have been selling approximately 20% of the new origination in the past four or five months. We intend to keep that track for the coming months.
Speaker #7: We see with good eyes this new program that the government has implemented because, of course, in Argentina there are no institutional investors, and having the chance to do that job, I think it's good for the market.
Speaker #7: So, we will participate in the program.
Speaker #4: That makes sense.
Belén Fourcade: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Speaker #7: And your second question regarding NIMs. Well, NIMs have been performing well in the past quarters, especially the measure that we like to present—that is, the NIM in real terms.
Diego Cesarini: Well, NIMs have been performing well in the past quarters, especially the measure that we like to present, that is the NIM in real terms. We take the cost of inflation from the interest margin, and that measure has gone up 70 basis points in the last quarter. Probably, this is the higher point of the year. Probably, net interest income should stabilize in the coming quarter. As loan portfolio starts growing, we should see NIMs deteriorating a little. Historical NIMs should fall around, we think, 200 basis points by year-end, but that will be partially offset by the fall in inflation. So the real NIM should fall around 100 or 125 basis points. This is not a huge problem for us, of course.
Speaker #7: We take the cost of inflation from the interest margin, and that measure has gone up 70 basis points in the last quarter. This is probably the highest point of the year; net interest income should stabilize in the coming quarters.
Speaker #7: And as the loan portfolio starts growing, we should see NIMs deteriorating a little. Historical NIMs should fall around, we think, 200 basis points by year-end.
Speaker #7: But that will be partially offset by the fall in inflation, so the real NIMS should fall around 100 or 125 basis points. This is not a huge problem for us.
Speaker #7: Of course, this is the trend that everyone is expecting in Argentina. I think, as things keep normalizing, inflation keeps going down along with rates.
Diego Cesarini: This is the trend that everyone is expecting in Argentina if things keep normalizing and inflation keeps going down along with rates.
Speaker #5: So pretty clear. Thank you.
Belén Fourcade: Super clear. Thank you. Our next question comes from Sergio del Apio with Particular. Sergio, your microphone is open. You can open microphone, Sergio. Well, I think that is going to be some problem, technical issue. Next question comes from Mario Picon with Itaú.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Sergio Nanut del Amico with Particular. Sergio, your microphone is open. You can open your microphone, Sergio. Well, I think that he's going to be—some problem, technical issues.
Speaker #1: The next question comes from Marius Strela with Itaú.
Mario Picon: Hey, guys. Hi, team. Thank you for the question. Just two questions. The first I think is already sort of been answered. Regarding the early signs you've seen in early NPLs, I know that you're saying that the new vintages are behaving well. But I don't know if we, as investors, can we track stage 2 or stage 1 loans in order to also be on tracking or measuring well that behavior. I don't know if that is accurate to be following. Since early, the vintages is not something that we can see. Also because we know that in Argentina, the loan book is very short duration as of now, right? You correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't know if stage 2 can be also a good measure that we can follow in order to try to anticipate to an improvement in asset quality.
Speaker #8: Hey guys. Hi team. Thank you for the question. Just two questions. The first, I think, is already sort of been answered. So regarding the early signs that you've seen the signs you've seen in early NPLs, I know that you're saying that the new vintages are behaving well.
Speaker #8: But I don't know if we as investors can we track a stage two or stage one loans in order to also kind of be on tracking or measuring well that behavior.
Speaker #8: I don't know if that is accurate to be following. Since early—I mean, the vintages are not something that we can see. And also, because we know that in Argentina, the loan book is very short duration as of now, right?
Speaker #8: So, you correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't know if stage two can also be a good measure that we can follow in order to try to anticipate or try an improvement in asset quality.
Speaker #8: And the other question was yeah, it was about regulation. We also saw that the government announced that it's going to let banks to loan USD to grant USD loans up to 15% of deposits.
Mario Picon: The other question was about regulation. We also saw that the government announced that it's going to let banks to grant USD loans up to 15% of deposits, regardless of the client being a USD generator or not, right? I wanted to check on you guys, the views on that policy, if it's going to have an impact or not. That would be great to have your color on that as well. Thank you.
Speaker #8: Regardless of the client being a USD generator or not, right? So I wanted to check with you guys on your views on that policy—if this is going to have an impact or not.
Speaker #8: I mean, it would be great to have your perspective on that as well. Thank you.
Speaker #4: Okay, thank you. Yeah, so you're right. If we follow stages, of course, they will also give us some color on the better performance of the portfolio.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Okay. Thank you. Yes, you're right. If we follow stages, of course, they will give us also some color on the better performance of the portfolio, and it is that way. When we take a look to individuals, to retail, we see this better performance along the month, this year, and we hope to see it by the end of the year at a better pace. Yes, the answer is yes. I know you don't have enough information to see the vintages, and it could be a good indicator for you, so I agree. Related to dollar, Diego, do you want to take that one?
Speaker #4: And it is that way. So when we take a look at individuals, so to retail, we see this better performance along the months this year, and we hope to see it by the end of the year at a better pace.
Speaker #4: So, yes, the answer is yes. I know you don't have enough information to see vintages, and it could be a good indicator for you.
Speaker #4: So I agree. Related to dollars, do you want to take that one?
Speaker #7: Yes. Hello, Mario. Regarding your other question, we welcome that measure by the government, but in fact, we already had the capacity to lend to companies that do not originate dollars because we have some bond issues in the market.
Diego Cesarini: Yes. Well, Mario, regarding your other question, we welcome that measure by the government. But, in fact, we already had the capacity to lend to companies that do not originate dollars because we have some bond issues in the market. So we had that capability. Even if we do not use it broadly, we look case by case. There are a few companies that we have already lent, but we do not think that we will make this massive. We are aware of the risks. On the other side, we have a very good demand of exporters or of projects. So our liquidity ratio in foreign currency is where we want it to be. Of course, if deposits and funding in general terms keeps going up, we will keep lending. But it is like we didn't need this measure to match in order to keep growing our portfolio.
Speaker #7: So we had that capability, even if we do not use it broadly. We look at it case by case. There are a few companies that we have already lent to, but we do not think that we will make this massive.
Speaker #7: We are aware of the risks. On the other side, we have very good demand from exporters and for projects. So, our liquidity ratio in foreign currency is where we want it to be.
Speaker #7: Of course, if the deposits and funding in general terms keep going up, we will keep lending. But it's like we didn't need this measure to match in order to keep growing our portfolio.
Speaker #7: But, of course, it is welcome because it allows us more flexibility if we need it.
Diego Cesarini: But of course, it is welcome because it allows us more flexibility if we need it.
Speaker #5: Perfect. Perfect, thank you. Just to check on what you mentioned about guidance: was loan growth close to 10% and cost of risk at 6.5%, and ROE— I think I didn't catch that.
Mario Picon: Perfect. Just to check on what you mentioned about guidance. It was loan growth close to 10% and cost to risk 6.5%. ROE, I think I didn't catch that, if there was a correction on that.
Speaker #5: If there was a correction on that.
Speaker #4: Thank you. No teams.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Yes. Low teens.
Speaker #7: No teams on ROE.
Diego Cesarini: Low teens on ROE.
Speaker #4: Yeah, and then loans around 10%. Yeah, that's right. And the other one, I didn't get it. Do you want to check?
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Yeah, loans around 10%.
Diego Cesarini: Yeah.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Yeah, that is right. The other one, I did not get it. Do you want to check?
Mario Picon: Cost to risk of 6.5.
Speaker #5: Cost of risk of 6.5.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: That's okay. Yes, that's right.
Speaker #4: Yeah. That's right.
Diego Cesarini: That's 6.5 for the full year.
Speaker #7: for the full year.
Speaker #4: Yeah.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Yeah.
Speaker #5: Okay. Thank you. Thank you, guys.
Mario Picon: Okay. Thank you. Thank you, guys.
Speaker #7: You're welcome.
Diego Cesarini: You're welcome.
Speaker #1: The next question comes from Lisandro Loveras with 11,618.
Belén Fourcade: The next question comes from Lisandro Olivera with 1618.
Speaker #5: Congratulations on the results. I have two questions here. The first one is if you can provide deposit guidance growth for the full year 2026. The second one is that we saw the bond portfolio and the public sector exposure growing this quarter.
Lisandro Olivera: Congratulations on the results. I have two questions here. The first one is, can you provide a deposit guidance growth for the full year of 2026? The second one is that we saw the bond portfolio and the public sector exposure growing this quarter, and I was wondering if you think it can continue growing the following quarters. Thanks.
Speaker #5: And I was wondering if you think it can continue growing in the following quarters. Thanks.
Speaker #4: So the first one is the first one, if I didn't get it wrong, it's related to guidance deposit growth. As I said before, so we, okay.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: The first one, if I did not get it wrong, is related to guidance deposit growth. As I said before,
Lisandro Olivera: Yes.
Carmen Morillo Arroyo: Well, on funding, we are very comfortable with our position, and we think we have enough liquidity to keep growing, and it will depend on the opportunities we see on the asset side. According to that, we will be growing in deposits. We do not see any restraints there. To give you a figure, maybe it will depend on the system, but we could be around 5% to 10%, something similar to that. As I mentioned, if we need more liquidity because the activity grows faster, then we will not have any problem there.
Speaker #4: So, on funding, we're very comfortable with our position, and we think we have enough liquidity to keep growing. It will depend on the opportunities we see on the asset side.
Speaker #4: And according to that, we will be growing in profit. So we don't see any restraint there. To give you a figure, maybe it will depend on the system.
Speaker #4: But we could be around 5% to 10%, something similar to that. But as I mentioned, if we need more liquidity because the activity grows faster, then we won't have any problem there.
Speaker #4: So
Speaker #7: Yes, Lisandro, as you know, we have been growing in market share in deposits. We have grown around 300 basis points over the last two or three years.
Diego Cesarini: Yes, Lisandro, as you know, we have been growing in market share in deposits. We have grown around 300 basis points through the last two or three years. But then we stop because, of course, credits are not growing that fast by the moment. When we need to resume that growth, we will. Regarding your second question, it is true that public sector portfolio has grown in Q2 after having decreased in the previous two years. I think it is temporary. The explanation is just that loans didn't traction during this first part of the year. Besides, we saw some good opportunities in building a value bond portfolio. We prefer floating rate adjustment, so we started with TAMAR bonds, and then, of course, we switched to this dual bonds that pay the most between inflation and TAMAR rates.
Speaker #7: But then we stopped because, of course, credits are not growing that fast at the moment. So, when we need to resume that growth, we will.
Speaker #7: And regarding your second question, it's true that the public sector portfolio has grown in the second quarter. After having decreased in the previous two years, I think it's temporary.
Speaker #7: The explanation is just that loans didn't gain traction during this first part of the year. And besides, we saw some good opportunities in building a value bond portfolio.
Speaker #7: We prefer floating rate adjustment. So, we started with TAMAR bonds, and then, of course, we switched to these dual bonds that pay the most between inflation and TAMAR rate.
Speaker #7: So, at least two-thirds of our portfolio consists of that kind of bonds, which we, as I said before, think provide value for our NII in the coming one, two, up to three years.
Diego Cesarini: At least two-thirds of our portfolio consists of that kind of bonds, which we, as I said before, we think that provide value for our NII in the coming one, two, until up to three years. We are comfortable with that position, and of course, we keep some part of the portfolio short-term to attend liquidity situations. That is a prudency measure.
Speaker #7: So, we are comfortable with that position. And, of course, we keep some part of the portfolio short-term to attend to liquidity situations; that's a prudency.
Speaker #7: Measure.
Speaker #5: Perfect. Thank you.
Lisandro Olivera: Perfect. Thank you.
Speaker #1: The next question comes from Stefan Spinger, a private investor. Stefan, you can open your microphone. Can you hear us, Stefan? Stefan? Okay, I think there seems to be a technical problem.
Belén Fourcade: The next question comes from Stefan Gwer, as a private investor. Stefan, you can open your microphone. Can you hear me, Stefan? Okay. I think that he is going to be a technical problem. One more time, if you wish to ask a question, please click on the Raise Hand button. Please hold while we pull for questions. Okay, this concludes with the Q&A section and today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a nice day.
Speaker #1: So, one more time: if you wish to ask a question, please click on the 'Raise Hand' button. Please hold while we pull for questions. Okay.
Speaker #1: This concludes with the Q&A section and the today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a nice day.
[Analyst]: Goodbye
