Half Year 2026 Türkiye Is Bankasi AS Earnings Call
Speaker #2: This meeting is being recorded.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to İş Bank 2026 H1 financial results audio webcast. The event will be hosted by Ms. Ebru Özşuca, Deputy CEO, Mr. Mehmet Türk, CFO, Ms. Nilgün Osman, Head of IR and Sustainability. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please raise your hand or use the Q&A box. Now I leave the floor to our presenters.
Nilgün Osman: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to İş Bank 2026 H1 financial results audio webcast. The event will be hosted by Ms. Ebru Özşuca, Deputy CEO, Mr. Mehmet Türk, CFO, Ms. Nilgün Osman, Head of IR and Sustainability. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please raise your hand or use the Q&A box. Now I leave the floor to our presenters.
Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to İşbank's 2026 first half financial results audio webcast. The event will be hosted by Ms. Ebru Ozsuca, Deputy CEO; Mr. Mehmet Türk, CFO; and Ms. Nilgin Osman, Head of IR and Sustainability.
Speaker #3: The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please raise your hand or use the Q&A box.
Speaker #3: Now, I leave the floor to our presenters.
Speaker #4: Welcome to our earnings presentation for the second quarter. This is Ebru speaking, and thank you all for joining us. Before we turn to our financial results, I would like to briefly go over the macroeconomic backdrop of our operating environment and share our view for the remainder of the year.
Ebru Özşuca: Welcome to our earnings presentation for Q2. This is Ebru speaking, and thank you all for joining us. Before we turn to our financial results, I would like to briefly go over the macroeconomic backdrop of our operating environment and share our view for the remainder of the year. In Q2, the impact of the geopolitical tensions on the Turkish economy has become more evident. Even though the possibility of a peace deal increased in June, the conflict re-escalated again in July. Against this global backdrop, the elevated uncertainties have made it harder to build long-lasting forecasts. Yet, due to a higher level of energy prices, 2026 year-end expectations for the current account deficit, inflation, and policy rate increased in Q2, while expectations for the GDP growth declined in Türkiye.
Ebru Özşuca: Welcome to our earnings presentation for Q2. This is Ebru speaking, and thank you all for joining us. Before we turn to our financial results, I would like to briefly go over the macroeconomic backdrop of our operating environment and share our view for the remainder of the year. In Q2, the impact of the geopolitical tensions on the Turkish economy has become more evident. Even though the possibility of a peace deal increased in June, the conflict re-escalated again in July. Against this global backdrop, the elevated uncertainties have made it harder to build long-lasting forecasts. Yet, due to a higher level of energy prices, 2026 year-end expectations for the current account deficit, inflation, and policy rate increased in Q2, while expectations for the GDP growth declined in Türkiye.
Speaker #4: In the second quarter, the impact of the geopolitical tensions on the Turkish economy has become more evident. Even though the possibility of a peace deal increased in June, the conflict re-escalated again in July.
Speaker #4: Against this global backdrop, the elevated uncertainty has made it harder to build long-lasting forecasts. Yet, due to a higher level of energy prices, 2026 year-end expectations for the current account deficit, inflation, and policy rate increase in the second quarter, while expectations for GDP growth decline in Türkiye.
Speaker #4: Despite this change in expectations, the prudent monetary policy stance and maintenance of reserve buffers have supported risk perception toward Türkiye. The central bank kept one-week repo options suspended and continued to fund the markets through the upper bound of the interest rate corridor.
Ebru Özşuca: Despite this change in expectations, the prudent monetary policy stance and maintaining reserve buffers have supported risk perception towards Türkiye. Central Bank kept one-week repo auctions suspended and continued to fund the markets through the upper bound of the interest rate corridor. Meanwhile, macro-prudential measures were tightened to sustain macrofinancial stability. Although normalization in monetary policy is delayed under current circumstances, assuming the expected renewed ceasefire or peace negotiations remain on track, we expect that CBRT will be able to resume easing cycle in the coming period. Let me take you through the highlights. Throughout the quarter, we have witnessed the stabilization of the funding costs, where it can be assumed that deposit rates have reached a plateau. On the other hand, the asset repricing is still an ongoing process, which will provide further support to margin improvement.
Ebru Özşuca: Despite this change in expectations, the prudent monetary policy stance and maintaining reserve buffers have supported risk perception towards Türkiye. Central Bank kept one-week repo auctions suspended and continued to fund the markets through the upper bound of the interest rate corridor. Meanwhile, macro-prudential measures were tightened to sustain macrofinancial stability. Although normalization in monetary policy is delayed under current circumstances, assuming the expected renewed ceasefire or peace negotiations remain on track, we expect that CBRT will be able to resume easing cycle in the coming period. Let me take you through the highlights. Throughout the quarter, we have witnessed the stabilization of the funding costs, where it can be assumed that deposit rates have reached a plateau. On the other hand, the asset repricing is still an ongoing process, which will provide further support to margin improvement.
Speaker #4: Meanwhile, macroprudential measures were tightened to sustain macrofinancial stability. Although normalization in monetary policy is delayed under current circumstances, assuming the expected renewed ceasefire or peace negotiations remain on track, we expect that CBRT will be able to resume the easing cycle in the coming period.
Speaker #4: Let me take you through the highlights. Throughout the quarter, we have witnessed the stabilization of funding costs, where it can be assumed that deposit rates have reached a plateau.
Speaker #4: On the other hand, the asset repricing is still an ongoing process, which will provide further support to margin improvement. Fee income performance was once again remarkable, and we posted the highest quarterly increase among our peers.
Ebru Özşuca: Fee income performance was once again remarkable. We posted the highest quarterly increase among our peers. We believe, as a result, our strong positioning in this area will be sustained in the coming period. Asset quality indicators were intact. Both the NPL ratio and the net cost of risk remained within our guided levels. Last but not least, our capital and liquidity positions were maintained at solid levels. Here, I would like to point out that, as you might have already seen in our public announcement, we have obtained the BRSA's approval to transition to the internal ratings-based approach. Accordingly, as of the next quarter, we will be disclosing our capital ratios in compliance with internal ratings-based approach, which is anticipated to provide further uplift to our capital ratios going forward. We will share the specific details in the relevant slides. Turning to the major P&L items.
Ebru Özşuca: Fee income performance was once again remarkable. We posted the highest quarterly increase among our peers. We believe, as a result, our strong positioning in this area will be sustained in the coming period. Asset quality indicators were intact. Both the NPL ratio and the net cost of risk remained within our guided levels. Last but not least, our capital and liquidity positions were maintained at solid levels. Here, I would like to point out that, as you might have already seen in our public announcement, we have obtained the BRSA's approval to transition to the internal ratings-based approach. Accordingly, as of the next quarter, we will be disclosing our capital ratios in compliance with internal ratings-based approach, which is anticipated to provide further uplift to our capital ratios going forward. We will share the specific details in the relevant slides. Turning to the major P&L items.
Speaker #4: We believe, as a result, our strong positioning in this area will be sustained in the coming period. Asset quality indicators were intact; both the NPL ratio and the net cost of risk remained within our guided levels.
Speaker #4: Last but not least, our capital and liquidity positions were maintained at solid levels. Here, I would like to point out that, as you might have already seen in our public announcement, we have obtained the BRSA's approval to transition to the internal ratings-based approach.
Speaker #4: Accordingly, as of the next quarter, we will be disclosing our capital ratios in compliance with the internal rating-based approach, which is anticipated to provide further uplift to our capital ratios going forward.
Speaker #4: We will share the specific details in the relevant slides. Turning to the major P&L items, as a result of elevated funding costs, swap-adjusted net interest income declined quarter-on-quarter, while posting a 181% year-on-year increase on an accumulative basis.
Ebru Özşuca: As a result of elevated funding costs, swap-adjusted net interest income declined quarterly, while posting a 181% year-on-year increase on a cumulative basis. Fee performance was once again strong with year-on-year growth of 40%, in line with our guidance. Our diversified fee base helped us achieve this outcome: payment systems, asset management, and bancassurance all supporting the annual increase. Annual OpEx increase moderated to 65% on a year-over-year basis from 70% in Q1. Subsidiary income continued to contribute steadily to the bottom line, up around 25% in the quarter. In H1, return on equity was 14%, while return on tangible equity stood at 17%. Going forward, profitability ratios will strengthen as NIM recovers and core banking income gains momentum. Accordingly, we expect the year-end return on equity will increase to 20% and return on tangible equity to around 25%.
Ebru Özşuca: As a result of elevated funding costs, swap-adjusted net interest income declined quarterly, while posting a 181% year-on-year increase on a cumulative basis. Fee performance was once again strong with year-on-year growth of 40%, in line with our guidance. Our diversified fee base helped us achieve this outcome: payment systems, asset management, and bancassurance all supporting the annual increase. Annual OpEx increase moderated to 65% on a year-over-year basis from 70% in Q1. Subsidiary income continued to contribute steadily to the bottom line, up around 25% in the quarter. In H1, return on equity was 14%, while return on tangible equity stood at 17%. Going forward, profitability ratios will strengthen as NIM recovers and core banking income gains momentum. Accordingly, we expect the year-end return on equity will increase to 20% and return on tangible equity to around 25%.
Speaker #4: Fee performance was once again strong, with year-on-year growth of 40%, in line with our guidance. Our diversified fee base helped us achieve this outcome: payment systems, asset management, and bancassurance all supported the annual increase.
Speaker #4: Annual OPEX increase moderated to 65% on a year-over-year basis from 70% in Q1. Subsidiary income continued to contribute steadily to the bottom line, up around 25% in the quarter.
Speaker #4: In the first half, return on equity was 14%, while return on tangible equity stood at 17%. Going forward, profitability ratios will strengthen as NIM recovers and core banking income gains momentum.
Speaker #4: Accordingly, we expect the year-end return on equity will increase to 20%, and return on tangible equity to around 25%. Now, I'll leave the floor to Nilgin for the details of the performance.
Ebru Özşuca: Now, I leave the floor to Nilgün for the details of the performance.
Ebru Özşuca: Now, I leave the floor to Nilgün for the details of the performance.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Ebru. Welcome, all, and thank you for joining our webcast. In this slide, you can see the composition of our balance sheet. As of the end of the first half, the loan book continued to make up more than half of total assets, while the share of the securities portfolio stood at around 17%.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Thank you, Ebru. Welcome all. Thank you for joining our webcast. In this slide, you can see the composition of our balance sheet. As of the end of H1, loan book continued to make up more than half of total assets, while share of the securities portfolio stood at around 17%. Consistent with our lending strategies, TL loans account for 65% of the book against 35% in FX. Within securities, TL share stands at 70% and FX at 30%. Moving on to the next page. In Q2, TL loans grew by 6.3%, bringing year-to-date growth to over 14%, in line with our full-year guidance of around mid-30s. During this period, while maintaining our focus on productive segments where our expertise and tailored solutions differentiate us, lending growth was broad-based across the portfolio, reflecting our strategy of being the main bank of our customers.
Nilgün Osman: Thank you, Ebru. Welcome all. Thank you for joining our webcast. In this slide, you can see the composition of our balance sheet. As of the end of H1, loan book continued to make up more than half of total assets, while share of the securities portfolio stood at around 17%. Consistent with our lending strategies, TL loans account for 65% of the book against 35% in FX. Within securities, TL share stands at 70% and FX at 30%. Moving on to the next page. In Q2, TL loans grew by 6.3%, bringing year-to-date growth to over 14%, in line with our full-year guidance of around mid-30s. During this period, while maintaining our focus on productive segments where our expertise and tailored solutions differentiate us, lending growth was broad-based across the portfolio, reflecting our strategy of being the main bank of our customers.
Speaker #4: Consistent with our lending strategies, PL loans account for 65% of the book, against 35% in EPICs. Within securities, TL share stands at 70%, and EPICs at 30%.
Speaker #4: Moving on to the next page, in the second quarter, TL loans grew by 6.3%, bringing year-to-date growth to over 14%, in line with our full-year guidance of around mid-30s.
Speaker #4: During this period, while maintaining our focus on productive segments—where our expertise and tailored solutions differentiate us—lending growth was broad-based across the portfolio, reflecting our strategy of being the main bank of our customers.
Speaker #4: On a year-to-date basis, retail loans grew by 16%, while TL non-retail loans posted a 12% increase. EPICS lending was 2.2% year-to-date, in line with our projections.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: On a year-to-date basis, retail loans grew by 16%, while TL non-retail loans posted a 12% increase. FX lending was 2.2% year to date, in line with our projections. On the securities side, in Q2, besides the shorter-term fixed bonds, floating rate notes, mainly TLREF ones, have been our primary preference. All in all, we believe that under current market dynamics, around 54% of floating rate composition will continue to contribute to our margin progress. During the period, the income contribution of CPI linkers stood at around TRY 12 billion, indicating a moderate increase compared to the previous quarter. Turning to the funding mix, deposits remained as our primary source of funding, accounting for 67% of total liabilities and close to three-quarters of our funding base. Our deposit base reached TRY 3.4 trillion over the quarter, proving our leading position among private banks in total deposits.
Nilgün Osman: On a year-to-date basis, retail loans grew by 16%, while TL non-retail loans posted a 12% increase. FX lending was 2.2% year to date, in line with our projections. On the securities side, in Q2, besides the shorter-term fixed bonds, floating rate notes, mainly TLREF ones, have been our primary preference. All in all, we believe that under current market dynamics, around 54% of floating rate composition will continue to contribute to our margin progress. During the period, the income contribution of CPI linkers stood at around TRY 12 billion, indicating a moderate increase compared to the previous quarter. Turning to the funding mix, deposits remained as our primary source of funding, accounting for 67% of total liabilities and close to three-quarters of our funding base. Our deposit base reached TRY 3.4 trillion over the quarter, proving our leading position among private banks in total deposits.
Speaker #4: On the securities side, in the second quarter, besides the shorter-term fixed bonds, floating rate notes—mainly TL-ref ones—have been our primary preference.
Speaker #4: All in all, we believe that, under current market dynamics, around 54% of the floating rate composition will continue to contribute to our margin progress. During the period, the income contribution of CPI linkers stood at around ₺12 billion, indicating a moderate increase compared to the previous quarter.
Speaker #4: Turning to the funding mix, deposits remained our primary source of funding, accounting for 67% of total liabilities and close to three-quarters of our funding base.
Speaker #4: Our deposit base reached TRY 3.4 trillion over the quarter, proving our leading position among private banks in total deposits. As for the currency composition, the TRY share rose to 57% from 55% at the end of March.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: As for the currency composition, TL share rose to 57% from 55% at the end of March. Beyond deposits, we continue to strengthen our presence in capital markets and to make use of alternative external funding opportunities in line with our strategy of diversifying our wholesale funding sources and extending the maturity profile of our liabilities. In this period, we have successfully closed our $1.3 billion equivalent sustainable syndicated facility with a one-year tenor and continued issuances under our GMTN program with a sustainability focus. Additionally, in July, we successfully executed a $500 million 12.9%, 7-year Tier 2 Eurobond issuance, marking the longest tenor Tier 2 market transaction across the CEEMEA region. We maintained our concentration on widespread, small ticket, granular deposit base. TL deposits grew by around 8% over the quarter, which brings the year-to-date increase to 11.4%. On the FX side, deposits declined by around 6% in the quarter.
Nilgün Osman: As for the currency composition, TL share rose to 57% from 55% at the end of March. Beyond deposits, we continue to strengthen our presence in capital markets and to make use of alternative external funding opportunities in line with our strategy of diversifying our wholesale funding sources and extending the maturity profile of our liabilities. In this period, we have successfully closed our $1.3 billion equivalent sustainable syndicated facility with a one-year tenor and continued issuances under our GMTN program with a sustainability focus. Additionally, in July, we successfully executed a $500 million 12.9%, 7-year Tier 2 Eurobond issuance, marking the longest tenor Tier 2 market transaction across the CEEMEA region. We maintained our concentration on widespread, small ticket, granular deposit base. TL deposits grew by around 8% over the quarter, which brings the year-to-date increase to 11.4%. On the FX side, deposits declined by around 6% in the quarter.
Speaker #4: Beyond deposits, we continue to strengthen our presence in capital markets and to make use of alternative external funding opportunities, in line with our strategy of diversifying our wholesale funding sources and extending the maturity profile of our liabilities.
Speaker #4: In this period, we have successfully closed our $1.3 billion equivalent sustainable syndicated facility, with a one-year tenure, and continued issuance under our GMTM program, with a sustainability focus.
Speaker #4: Additionally, in July, we successfully executed a $500 million 12 non-call 7 Tier 2 Eurobond issuance, marking the longest-tenure Tier 2 market transaction across the senior region.
Speaker #4: We maintained our concentration on a widespread, small-ticket, granular deposit base. TL deposits grew by around 8% over the quarter, which brings the year-to-date increase to 11.4%.
Speaker #4: On the EPICS side, deposits declined by around 6% in the quarter. Our demand deposit base continues to rank first among private banks. As of the end of the second quarter, 43% of our deposits is comprised of demand deposits, providing substantial support to our funding cost base.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Our demand deposit base continues to rank first among private banks. As of the end of Q2, 43% of our deposits is comprised of demand deposits, providing substantial support to our funding cost base. Both TL and FX demand deposit shares were slightly higher than the previous quarter, nearly at 16% and 78%, respectively. In terms of composition, the retail share of our deposit base increased in the quarter, reflecting our continued focus on granularity. On the next page, we have the spread and net interest margin evolution. In March, at the initial phase of geopolitical tension for defending our NIM under the uncertainty of the duration of the conflict, we relied more on swap and repo funding, which carried lower costs relative to marginal deposits. As a result, deposit costs were not significantly affected in Q1.
Nilgün Osman: Our demand deposit base continues to rank first among private banks. As of the end of Q2, 43% of our deposits is comprised of demand deposits, providing substantial support to our funding cost base. Both TL and FX demand deposit shares were slightly higher than the previous quarter, nearly at 16% and 78%, respectively. In terms of composition, the retail share of our deposit base increased in the quarter, reflecting our continued focus on granularity. On the next page, we have the spread and net interest margin evolution. In March, at the initial phase of geopolitical tension for defending our NIM under the uncertainty of the duration of the conflict, we relied more on swap and repo funding, which carried lower costs relative to marginal deposits. As a result, deposit costs were not significantly affected in Q1.
Speaker #4: Both TL and EPICS demand deposit shares were slightly higher than the previous quarter, nearly at 16% and 78%, respectively. In terms of composition, the retail share of our deposit base increased in the quarter, reflecting our continued focus on granularity.
Speaker #4: On the next page, we have the spread and net interest margin evolution. In March, at the initial phase of geopolitical tensions, to defend our NIM under the uncertainty of the duration of the conflict, we relied more on swap and repo funding, which carried lower costs relative to marginal deposits.
Speaker #4: As a result, deposit costs were not significantly affected in the first quarter. However, as geopolitical risks proved persistent in the second quarter, deposit costs gradually went up inevitably.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: As geopolitical risks proved persistent in Q2, deposit costs gradually went up inevitably. All in all, swap-adjusted net interest income grew by 181% compared to the same period of previous year, while it came down quarterly. Nevertheless, swap-adjusted net interest margin has been kept around 3% for H1. Going forward, even with the assumption that interest rates will stay at their existing levels as cost increase being fully reflected to the deposit base, several factors are at play to support margin evolution simultaneously. Securities book was already contributing, as mentioned. On top of that, upward pricing adjustment of loans will become more visible as the repricing progresses. Taking into account that we haven't observed any easing on the monetary policy stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tension, we are revising our swap-adjusted net interest margin guidance for 2026 to the range of 3.2% to 3.4%.
Nilgün Osman: As geopolitical risks proved persistent in Q2, deposit costs gradually went up inevitably. All in all, swap-adjusted net interest income grew by 181% compared to the same period of previous year, while it came down quarterly. Nevertheless, swap-adjusted net interest margin has been kept around 3% for H1. Going forward, even with the assumption that interest rates will stay at their existing levels as cost increase being fully reflected to the deposit base, several factors are at play to support margin evolution simultaneously. Securities book was already contributing, as mentioned. On top of that, upward pricing adjustment of loans will become more visible as the repricing progresses. Taking into account that we haven't observed any easing on the monetary policy stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tension, we are revising our swap-adjusted net interest margin guidance for 2026 to the range of 3.2% to 3.4%.
Speaker #4: All in all, swap-adjusted net interest income grew by 181% compared to the same period of the previous year, while it came down quarter-on-quarter. Nevertheless, swap-adjusted net interest margin has been kept around 3% for the first half.
Speaker #4: Going forward, even with the assumption that interest rates will stay at their existing levels, as cost increases are fully reflected to the deposit base, several factors are at play to support margin evolution simultaneously.
Speaker #4: The securities book was already contributing, as mentioned. On top of that, the upward pricing adjustment of loans will become more visible as the repricing progresses. Taking into account that we haven't observed any easing in the monetary policy stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, we are revising our swap-adjusted net interest margin guidance for 2026 to the range of 3.2% to 3.4%.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Needless to say that this indicates a delay rather than a disruption in the expected margin trajectory, which would resume into 2027 in line with the ongoing disinflation process. Moving on with net fees and commissions, fee income grew 39.4% year over year in the H1, in line with our full-year guidance. Quarterly increase was remarkable at 19%, highest level among peers. All major fee lines contributed to growth. Payment systems continued to account for the highest portion of our fee base at 68%, growing 40% annually. Asset management stands out with 17% growth, supported by remarkable annual expansion in assets under management. bancassurance grew 55%, while lending-related fees and money transfers contributed 21% and 25%, respectively.
Nilgün Osman: Needless to say that this indicates a delay rather than a disruption in the expected margin trajectory, which would resume into 2027 in line with the ongoing disinflation process. Moving on with net fees and commissions, fee income grew 39.4% year over year in the H1, in line with our full-year guidance. Quarterly increase was remarkable at 19%, highest level among peers. All major fee lines contributed to growth. Payment systems continued to account for the highest portion of our fee base at 68%, growing 40% annually. Asset management stands out with 17% growth, supported by remarkable annual expansion in assets under management. bancassurance grew 55%, while lending-related fees and money transfers contributed 21% and 25%, respectively.
Speaker #4: Needless to say, this indicates a delay rather than a disruption in the expected margin trajectory, which will resume into 2027 in line with the ongoing disinflation process.
Speaker #4: Moving on with net fees and commissions, fee income grew by 39.4% year-on-year in the first half, in line with our full-year guidance. The quarterly increase was remarkable at 19%, the highest level among peers.
Speaker #4: All major fee lines contributed to growth. Payment systems continued to account for the highest portion of our fee base at 68%, growing 40% annually.
Speaker #4: Asset management stands out with 70% growth, supported by remarkable annual expansion in assets under management. Bancassurance grew 55%, while lending-related fees and money transfers contributed 21% and 25%, respectively.
Speaker #4: The strengthened asset management is closely tied to our digital reach, powered by a massive digital footprint of 16 million customers. Ninety-seven percent of all non-branch transactions, and 80% of our commission revenue from digital channels, is generated through Eacheck.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: The strength in asset management is closely tied to our digital reach, powered by a massive digital footprint of 16 million customers, 97% of all non-branch transactions, and 80% of our commission revenue from digital channels is generated through İşCep. We expect to sustain this momentum going forward by leveraging our digital channels and continuing to improve the overall customer experience. Year-on-year, OpEx growth stood at around 65% in the H1, while fee to OpEx ratio increased to 83% in Q2. As seasonality continues to smooth out for the remainder of the year, we see ourselves converging to the full-year guidance of mid-40s. Turning to asset quality, the trajectory was broadly stable in the Q2, with key indicators generally tracking as expected. Compared with the previous quarter, net NPL formation rate was largely steady.
Nilgün Osman: The strength in asset management is closely tied to our digital reach, powered by a massive digital footprint of 16 million customers, 97% of all non-branch transactions, and 80% of our commission revenue from digital channels is generated through İşCep. We expect to sustain this momentum going forward by leveraging our digital channels and continuing to improve the overall customer experience. Year-on-year, OpEx growth stood at around 65% in the H1, while fee to OpEx ratio increased to 83% in Q2. As seasonality continues to smooth out for the remainder of the year, we see ourselves converging to the full-year guidance of mid-40s. Turning to asset quality, the trajectory was broadly stable in the Q2, with key indicators generally tracking as expected. Compared with the previous quarter, net NPL formation rate was largely steady.
Speaker #4: We expect to sustain this momentum going forward by leveraging our digital channels and continuing to improve the overall customer experience. Year-on-year, OPEX growth grew at around 65% in the first half, while fee-to-OPEX ratio increased to 83% in Q2.
Speaker #4: As seasonality continues to smooth out for the remainder of the year, we see ourselves converging to the full-year guidance of mid-40s. Turning to asset quality, the trajectory was broadly stable in the second quarter, with key indicators generally tracking as expected.
Speaker #4: Compared with the previous quarter, net NPL formation rate was largely steady. On the other hand, collection rate remained robust at 20%, and the NPL ratio was 3.8% as of the end of June.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: On the other hand, collection rate remains robust at 20%, and the NPL ratio was 3.8% as of the end of June. Quarterly cost of risk was at 237 basis points, bringing the H1 figure to 222 basis points within our guidance level. Coverage ratios remained solid, with the total coverage ratio for the loan book rising to 4.1%, indicating the highest level among peers. Overall, the portfolio continued to perform in line with our budget expectations. We are confident with respect to our full-year guidance of an NPL ratio of around 4% and a net cost of risk below 250 basis points. Next page shows the capitalization levels. At the end of June, our capital adequacy ratio increased to 15.4%, and common equity Tier 1 rose to 12.1%.
Nilgün Osman: On the other hand, collection rate remains robust at 20%, and the NPL ratio was 3.8% as of the end of June. Quarterly cost of risk was at 237 basis points, bringing the H1 figure to 222 basis points within our guidance level. Coverage ratios remained solid, with the total coverage ratio for the loan book rising to 4.1%, indicating the highest level among peers. Overall, the portfolio continued to perform in line with our budget expectations. We are confident with respect to our full-year guidance of an NPL ratio of around 4% and a net cost of risk below 250 basis points. Next page shows the capitalization levels. At the end of June, our capital adequacy ratio increased to 15.4%, and common equity Tier 1 rose to 12.1%.
Speaker #4: Quarterly cost of risk was at 237 basis points, bringing the first half figure to 222 basis points, within our guidance level. Coverage ratios remained solid, with the total coverage ratio for the loan book rising to 4.1%, indicating the highest level among peers.
Speaker #4: Overall, the portfolio continued to perform in line with our budget expectations. We are confident with respect to our full-year guidance of an NPL ratio of around 4%, and a net cost of risk below 250 basis points.
Speaker #4: The next page shows the capitalization levels. At the end of June, our capital decrease ratio increased to 15.4%, and common equity tier one rose to 12.1%.
Speaker #4: As we have mentioned, starting from next quarter, we will be disclosing our capital ratios, in compliance with the IRB approach, in the calculation of credit risk.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: As we have mentioned, starting from next quarter, we will be disclosing our capital ratios in compliance with the IRB approach in the calculation of credit risks. We expect the optimization that will be derived from this methodology to provide further support to our capitalization levels. If calculated with this approach for June figures, IRB approach would have delivered an impact of 190 basis points on our capital adequacy ratio and 220 basis points on our common equity Tier 1 ratio. Also, our July Tier 2 issuance will provide a positive impact of around 78 basis points on capital adequacy ratio. As always, we believe our capital ratios are strong enough to ensure sustainable growth of our asset base.
Nilgün Osman: As we have mentioned, starting from next quarter, we will be disclosing our capital ratios in compliance with the IRB approach in the calculation of credit risks. We expect the optimization that will be derived from this methodology to provide further support to our capitalization levels. If calculated with this approach for June figures, IRB approach would have delivered an impact of 190 basis points on our capital adequacy ratio and 220 basis points on our common equity Tier 1 ratio. Also, our July Tier 2 issuance will provide a positive impact of around 78 basis points on capital adequacy ratio. As always, we believe our capital ratios are strong enough to ensure sustainable growth of our asset base.
Speaker #4: We expect the optimization that will be derived from this methodology to provide further support to our capitalization levels. If calculated with this approach for June figures, the IRB approach would have delivered an impact of 190 basis points on our capital decrease ratio, and 220 basis points on our Common Equity Tier One ratio.
Speaker #4: Also, our July Tier Two issuance will provide a positive impact of around 78 basis points on the capital adequacy ratio. As always, we believe our capital ratios are strong enough to ensure sustainable growth of our asset base.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Sensitivity of our capital adequacy ratio to a 10% depreciation in TRY is around 25 basis points, while sensitivity to 100 basis points increase in TRY interest rates is around five basis points. Before moving to Q&A, we would like to touch upon our revised guidance. As we have mentioned, as a result of the delay that funding dynamics imposed on the improvement of net interest margin this year, we revised our 2026 guidance to 3.2% to 3.4%, with an expected recovery trajectory to continue into the next year. In parallel with this, for 2026, we update our return on equity expectation to 20% and return on tangible equity expectation to 25% respectively. This concludes our presentation. Now we can open the floor for your questions. At the moment, as far as I can see, there are no audio questions.
Nilgün Osman: Sensitivity of our capital adequacy ratio to a 10% depreciation in TRY is around 25 basis points, while sensitivity to 100 basis points increase in TRY interest rates is around five basis points. Before moving to Q&A, we would like to touch upon our revised guidance. As we have mentioned, as a result of the delay that funding dynamics imposed on the improvement of net interest margin this year, we revised our 2026 guidance to 3.2% to 3.4%, with an expected recovery trajectory to continue into the next year. In parallel with this, for 2026, we update our return on equity expectation to 20% and return on tangible equity expectation to 25% respectively. This concludes our presentation. Now we can open the floor for your questions. At the moment, as far as I can see, there are no audio questions.
Speaker #4: Sensitivity of our capital decrease ratio to a 10% depreciation in TL is around 25 basis points, while sensitivity to a 100 basis point increase in TL interest rates is around 5 basis points.
Speaker #4: Before moving to Q&A, we would like to touch upon our revised guidance. As we have mentioned, as a result of the delay that funding dynamics imposed on the improvement of net interest margin this year, we revise our 2026 guidance to 3.2% to 3.4%, with an expected recovery trajectory to continue into the next year.
Speaker #4: In parallel with this, for 2026, we update our return on equity expectation to 20% and our return on tangible equity expectation to 25%, respectively. This concludes our presentation.
Speaker #4: Now, we can open the floor for your questions.
Speaker #2: At the moment, as far as I can see, there are no audio questions. We have a couple of written questions, though, from Tomasz Nozel.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: We have a couple of written questions, though, from Tomas Motl, Bloomberg Intelligence. The first question is, could you please discuss trade and CPI assumptions in your guidance, and what is your view on 2027? For this year, our year-end CPI assumption is around 30%. Of course, the trajectory of the inflation going forward will be mostly dependent on the energy and food prices. Going forward for the year 2027, although we have not budgeted yet, but our preliminary expectation is the CPI could come down to 25% levels. In this respect, if the case goes like this, and we can expect the policy rate to come down just below 30% levels, somewhere around 28% to 29%. But as I said, these are not official expectations at the moment, but as a preliminary assumption, I can give those levels to you. Moving with Tomas' second question.
Nilgün Osman: We have a couple of written questions, though, from Tomas Motl, Bloomberg Intelligence. The first question is, could you please discuss trade and CPI assumptions in your guidance, and what is your view on 2027? For this year, our year-end CPI assumption is around 30%. Of course, the trajectory of the inflation going forward will be mostly dependent on the energy and food prices. Going forward for the year 2027, although we have not budgeted yet, but our preliminary expectation is the CPI could come down to 25% levels. In this respect, if the case goes like this, and we can expect the policy rate to come down just below 30% levels, somewhere around 28% to 29%. But as I said, these are not official expectations at the moment, but as a preliminary assumption, I can give those levels to you. Moving with Tomas' second question.
Speaker #2: Bloomberg Intelligence. So the first question is: could you please discuss trade and CPI assumptions in your guidance, and what's your view on 2027?
Speaker #4: For this year, our year-end CPI assumption is, you know, around 30%. And, of course, the trajectory of inflation going forward will be mostly dependent on energy and food prices.
Speaker #4: So, going forward for the year 2027, although we have not budgeted yet, our preliminary expectation is that the CPI could come down to the 25% level.
Speaker #4: In this respect, if the case goes like this, we can expect the policy rate to come down just below the 30% level, somewhere around 28% to 29%. But as I said, these are not official expectations at the moment.
Speaker #4: But as a preliminary assumption, I can give those levels to you.
Speaker #2: Moving on to Tomasz's second question. If the one-week repo were to stay at 37%, what would be your name?
Nilgün Yosef Osman: If the one-week repo was to stay at 37%, what will be your NIM? I do understand the question, saying that the average cost of funding coming down to 37% levels, the policy rate and the average cost of funding will be at the same level. Assuming the question is like that, I can say that our NIM guidance levels will be in range, which we have set 3.2% to 3.4% at the moment.
Nilgün Osman: If the one-week repo was to stay at 37%, what will be your NIM? I do understand the question, saying that the average cost of funding coming down to 37% levels, the policy rate and the average cost of funding will be at the same level. Assuming the question is like that, I can say that our NIM guidance levels will be in range, which we have set 3.2% to 3.4% at the moment.
Speaker #4: I do understand the question. Saying that the average cost of funding is coming down to 37% levels. So the policy rate and the average cost of funding will be at the same levels, assuming the question is like that.
Speaker #4: I can say that our guidance levels will be in the range which we have set, 3.2 to 3.4%, at the moment.
Speaker #2: We have a question from Oğuzhan Evrenöz, Union Company. Oğuzhan, please unmute yourself and then ask your question. Thank you.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: We have a question from Osman Evrenos, Union Company. Osman, please unmute yourself and then ask your question. Thank you.
Nilgün Osman: We have a question from Osman Evrenos, Union Company. Osman, please unmute yourself and then ask your question. Thank you.
Osman Evrenos: I thank you for the presentation. I am looking at your profits and loss, I see the trading line weaker quarter-over-quarter and also other operating profits surprised me on the downside. Could you give some more color as to what is going on? Thank you.
Oğuzhan Evranos: I thank you for the presentation. I am looking at your profits and loss, I see the trading line weaker quarter-over-quarter and also other operating profits surprised me on the downside. Could you give some more color as to what is going on? Thank you.
Speaker #1: All right. Thank you for the presentation. I'm looking at your profit and loss, but I see the trading line weekly, quarter over quarter, and also other operating profit surprised me on the downside.
Speaker #1: Could you give some more color as to what's going on? Thank you.
Ebru Özşuca: In Q2, when we look to the whole trading line, as you can guess that Q2, we benefited from the comparatively lower costs of swap funding. Therefore, the volumes and the costs rose. Of course, these are already reflected to our swap-adjusted net interest margin. On the FX trading side, we are continue to use the market opportunities. Of course, it is mark-to-market evaluation effects are also having a reflection. I can say that in the whole, when we look to the whole H1, it is we are just having a flattish trading income excluding the swap costs.
Ebru Özşuca: In Q2, when we look to the whole trading line, as you can guess that Q2, we benefited from the comparatively lower costs of swap funding. Therefore, the volumes and the costs rose. Of course, these are already reflected to our swap-adjusted net interest margin. On the FX trading side, we are continue to use the market opportunities. Of course, it is mark-to-market evaluation effects are also having a reflection. I can say that in the whole, when we look to the whole H1, it is we are just having a flattish trading income excluding the swap costs.
Speaker #4: In the second quarter, you know, when we looked at the whole trading line, you know, as you can guess, the second quarter benefited from the, you know, comparatively lower cost of swap funding.
Speaker #4: Therefore, the volumes and the cost rose, but of course, these are already reflected in our swap-adjusted net interest margin. And on the FX trading side, you know, we continue to use the, you know, market opportunities.
Speaker #4: So you know, of course, it is, you know, mark-to-mark evaluation effects are also having a reflection, but I can say that in the whole when we look to the whole first half year, it is we are just having a flattish trading income excluding the swap cost.
Speaker #1: Thank you very much. Also, in the presentation, I saw the pension expense as well. Could you give some color on that too?
Osman Evrenos: Thank you very much. Also, the presentation, I saw the pension expense as well. Could you give some color onto that too?
Oğuzhan Evranos: Thank you very much. Also, the presentation, I saw the pension expense as well. Could you give some color onto that too?
Mehmet Türk: First of all, on the other operating income item, that was your question, the first question. As you know, there is seasonality on the other operating income due to the reversals recorded in Q1, which are primarily about the collections. That is also reflected in the seasonality in Q2 as well. With regards to the pension fund provisions, we have an actuarial assessment in the pension fund, and we accordingly set aside provisions every other quarter. This quarter it was around 1.7 billion TRY.
Mehmet Türk: First of all, on the other operating income item, that was your question, the first question. As you know, there is seasonality on the other operating income due to the reversals recorded in Q1, which are primarily about the collections. That is also reflected in the seasonality in Q2 as well. With regards to the pension fund provisions, we have an actuarial assessment in the pension fund, and we accordingly set aside provisions every other quarter. This quarter it was around 1.7 billion TRY.
Speaker #3: First of all, on the other operating income—I think that was your question, the first question—as you know, there is seasonality in the other operating income due to the reversals recorded in the first quarter.
Speaker #3: These are primarily about the collections, so that's also reflected in the seasonality in the second quarter as well. And with regards to the pension funds provisions, we have an actuarial assessment in the pension fund, and we accordingly set aside provisions every other quarter. This quarter, it was around TL 1.7 billion.
Speaker #1: Thank you very much.
Osman Evrenos: Thank you very much.
Oğuzhan Evranos: Thank you very much.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Well, we have another question from Ashvat PC, Goldman Sachs. Ash, please unmute yourself and ask your question. Thank you.
Nilgün Osman: Well, we have another question from Ashvat PC, Goldman Sachs. Ash, please unmute yourself and ask your question. Thank you.
Speaker #2: We have another question from Ashwat PC at Goldman Sachs. Ash, please unmute yourself and ask your question. Thank you.
Ashvat PC: Hi. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have three questions. The first one is on the NIM. It seems on Q2, the exit NIM is around 2.1. I see in the presentation you expect it to rise sequentially into Q3 and Q4. May I understand what are the assumptions behind the expectation for the sequential increase starting from Q3 itself? That would be my first question. The second question is on the OpEx side. Year-on-year for H1, it's up 65%, which is materially higher than the guidance range of mid-forties. Again, wanted to understand why you still keep the guidance range at around that level. Are there some offsets that you expect in the H2 of this year to bring it back down towards that guidance level?
Ashwath P T: Hi. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have three questions. The first one is on the NIM. It seems on Q2, the exit NIM is around 2.1. I see in the presentation you expect it to rise sequentially into Q3 and Q4. May I understand what are the assumptions behind the expectation for the sequential increase starting from Q3 itself? That would be my first question. The second question is on the OpEx side. Year-on-year for H1, it's up 65%, which is materially higher than the guidance range of mid-forties. Again, wanted to understand why you still keep the guidance range at around that level. Are there some offsets that you expect in the H2 of this year to bring it back down towards that guidance level?
Speaker #5: Hi. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have three questions. The first one is on the NIM. So it seems in the second quarter, the exit NIM is around 2.1%, and I see in the presentation you expect it to rise sequentially into Q3 and Q4.
Speaker #5: May I know, may I understand, what are the assumptions behind the expectations for the sequential increase starting from Q3 itself? That would be my first question.
Speaker #5: The second question is on the OPEX side. Year on year, for one hitch, it's up 65%, which is materially higher than the guidance range of mid-40s.
Speaker #5: So again, I wanted to understand why you still keep the guidance range at around that level. Are there some offsets that you expect in the second half of this year to bring it back down towards that guidance level?
Speaker #5: And the third question I have is around the asset quality side of the business. It's pleasing to see that it's still broadly in check and hasn't materially risen.
Ashvat PC: The third question I have is around the asset quality side of the business. Pleasing to see that it's still broadly in check and hasn't materially risen. Just wanted to get a bit more color regarding the particular segments where there were pressure in terms of NPL formation, whether it's SMEs or retail or both, and what the expectations or what the current state of asset quality is in so far in the quarter to date, in Q3 so far. Thank you.
Ashwath P T: The third question I have is around the asset quality side of the business. Pleasing to see that it's still broadly in check and hasn't materially risen. Just wanted to get a bit more color regarding the particular segments where there were pressure in terms of NPL formation, whether it's SMEs or retail or both, and what the expectations or what the current state of asset quality is in so far in the quarter to date, in Q3 so far. Thank you.
Speaker #5: I just wanted to get a bit more color regarding the particular segments where there was pressure in terms of NPL formation—whether it's SMEs or retail or both—and what the expectations are or what the current state of asset quality is so far in the quarter to date, in the third quarter so far.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Ashwat, for the question. So I will start with the NIM part of your question. As you said, we are expecting a net interest margin widening in the coming periods.
Ebru Özşuca: Thank you, Ashvat, for the question. I will start with the NIM part of your question. As you said, we are expecting a net interest margin widening in the coming periods. When we look to what has been realized during Q2 and now what we are just seeing, I can say that the tension persisted, as you know, through Q2 and even into Q3. CBRT has not been in a position to ease the policy rate or liquidity conditions. Still, we expect that the touch tends to be maintained until there is a ceasefire or a comparable improvement on that front. When we look to the figures, I can say that our swap. There will be a lot more pressure coming from the cost of our deposits.
Ebru Özşuca: Thank you, Ashvat, for the question. I will start with the NIM part of your question. As you said, we are expecting a net interest margin widening in the coming periods. When we look to what has been realized during Q2 and now what we are just seeing, I can say that the tension persisted, as you know, through Q2 and even into Q3. CBRT has not been in a position to ease the policy rate or liquidity conditions. Still, we expect that the touch tends to be maintained until there is a ceasefire or a comparable improvement on that front. When we look to the figures, I can say that our swap. There will be a lot more pressure coming from the cost of our deposits.
Speaker #4: When we look at what has been realized during the second quarter, and now what we are just seeing, I can say that the tension persisted, as you know, through the second quarter and even into now, even into the third quarter.
Speaker #4: So, CBRT has not been in a position to ease the policy rate or liquidity conditions. But, you know, we still expect that the tight stance will be maintained until there is a ceasefire or a comparable improvement on that front.
Speaker #4: So, but when we look at our, you know, the figures, I can say that we are our swap, so there will not be more pressure coming from the cost of our deposits. Now, the increase in the deposit costs has already been reflected in the second quarter.
Ebru Özşuca: Now, the increase in the deposits costs have already been reflected in Q2, and I can say that we reached its peak levels towards the quarter end. The funding side will stabilize from now on. On the other side, the repricing of the asset book is ongoing and will become clearly visible from Q3 onwards. On this basis, we expect the improvement trend to continue through the remainder of the year without needing to rely on rate cuts. A return to more normal conditions and resumption of the easing cycle that would follow would provide additional support to this outlook. Therefore, I can say that we expect net interest margin to increase gradually over the final two quarters.
Ebru Özşuca: Now, the increase in the deposits costs have already been reflected in Q2, and I can say that we reached its peak levels towards the quarter end. The funding side will stabilize from now on. On the other side, the repricing of the asset book is ongoing and will become clearly visible from Q3 onwards. On this basis, we expect the improvement trend to continue through the remainder of the year without needing to rely on rate cuts. A return to more normal conditions and resumption of the easing cycle that would follow would provide additional support to this outlook. Therefore, I can say that we expect net interest margin to increase gradually over the final two quarters.
Speaker #4: And I can say that we reached its peak levels towards the quarter end. So, the funding side will stabilize from now on. On the other side, the repricing of the asset book is ongoing and will become clearly visible from the third quarter onwards.
Speaker #4: On this basis, we expect the improvement trend to continue through the remainder of the year, without needing to rely on rate cuts. A return to more normal conditions and resumption of the easing cycle that would follow would provide additional support to this outlook.
Speaker #4: So therefore, I can say that we expect net interest margin to increase gradually over the final two quarters. And I can say that under this assumption, as you know, our reflection of the policy rate is returning back to the average cost of funding returning back to the post rate of 37%.
Ebru Özşuca: I can say that under this assumption, our reflection of the policy rate is returning back to the average cost of funding, returning back to the policy rate of 37%. If any rate cut comes, it would be towards the end of the year, it has not a big effect from now on. It is a more conservative way of our assumption for the NIM trajectory, I can say.
Ebru Özşuca: I can say that under this assumption, our reflection of the policy rate is returning back to the average cost of funding, returning back to the policy rate of 37%. If any rate cut comes, it would be towards the end of the year, it has not a big effect from now on. It is a more conservative way of our assumption for the NIM trajectory, I can say.
Speaker #4: And if any rate cut comes, it would be toward the end of the year. So it does not have a big effect from now on.
Speaker #4: So, it is a more conservative way of our assumption for the NIM trajectory, I can say.
Mehmet Türk: On the OpEx question, yes, it increased by 65% in H1, and our guidance of mid-40s of OpEx growth was based on two main assumptions, as you can remember in the start of the year. The collective bargaining agreements and more importantly, a deliberate increase in business development spending. We have also shared the waterfall analysis of the OpEx in our slides, which you can also check. Those are after several years of maintaining a lean cost base. Sales promotions, customer acquisition campaigns are all planned and budgeted according to the start of the year. The increase was primarily driven by the non-HR expenses. The share of business development expenses increased by 4 percentage points to 27%. As we approach the year-end, it will be close to 30% as we calculated.
Mehmet Türk: On the OpEx question, yes, it increased by 65% in H1, and our guidance of mid-40s of OpEx growth was based on two main assumptions, as you can remember in the start of the year. The collective bargaining agreements and more importantly, a deliberate increase in business development spending. We have also shared the waterfall analysis of the OpEx in our slides, which you can also check. Those are after several years of maintaining a lean cost base. Sales promotions, customer acquisition campaigns are all planned and budgeted according to the start of the year. The increase was primarily driven by the non-HR expenses. The share of business development expenses increased by 4 percentage points to 27%. As we approach the year-end, it will be close to 30% as we calculated.
Speaker #3: On the OPEX question, yes, it's increased by 65% in the first half. And our guidance of mid-40s OPEX growth was based on two main assumptions, as you can remember, at the start of the year.
Speaker #3: The collective bargaining agreement and, more importantly, a deliberate increase in business involvement spending. We have also shared a waterfall analysis of the OPEX in our slides, which you can also check.
Speaker #3: And those are after several years of maintaining a lean cost base. So salary promotions and customer acquisition campaigns are all planned and budgeted according to the first half as the start of the year.
Speaker #3: And the increase was primarily driven by the non-HR expenses. So, the share of business development expenses increased by 4 percentage points to 27%. And as we approach the year-end, it will be close to 30%, as we calculated.
Speaker #3: But as you know, the OPEX item is a fully controlled item, and there are base effects from last year in the last quarter of 2025.
Mehmet Türk: As you know, the OpEx item is a fully controlled item, and there are base effects from last year in Q4 2025. We will see its approach to our guided levels of mid-40s by the year-end. We are very confident about it. On the asset quality side, for 2026, we guided for an NPL ratio of around 4%, including the NPL sales and net cost of risk below 250 basis points, which we are in line with. In H1, inflows and collections did not diverge from our budget assumptions. Retail inflows continued, and the pace of SME inflows moderated to some extent. Overall, the trajectory was within the range of our expectations, and they remained manageable. We do not foresee any large ticket additions in the pipeline that would materially alter the outlook.
Mehmet Türk: As you know, the OpEx item is a fully controlled item, and there are base effects from last year in Q4 2025. We will see its approach to our guided levels of mid-40s by the year-end. We are very confident about it. On the asset quality side, for 2026, we guided for an NPL ratio of around 4%, including the NPL sales and net cost of risk below 250 basis points, which we are in line with. In H1, inflows and collections did not diverge from our budget assumptions. Retail inflows continued, and the pace of SME inflows moderated to some extent. Overall, the trajectory was within the range of our expectations, and they remained manageable. We do not foresee any large ticket additions in the pipeline that would materially alter the outlook.
Speaker #3: So we will see it approach our guided levels of the mid-40s by year-end, so we are very confident about that. On the asset quality side, for 2026, we guided for an NPL ratio of around 4%, including the NPL sales.
Speaker #3: And net cost of risk below 250 basis points, which we are in line with. In the first half, inflows and collections did not diverge from our budget assumptions.
Speaker #3: Retail inflows continued, and the pace of SME inflows moderated to some extent. Overall, the trajectory was within the range of our expectations, and they remained manageable.
Speaker #3: We do not foresee any large-ticket additions in the pipeline that would materially alter the outlook. Also, collection performance, on the other hand, is a key strength, with our collection rate continuing to be one of the highest among the peer group.
Mehmet Türk: Also, collection performance, on the other hand, is a key strength, with our collection rate continuing to be one of the highest among the peer group. NPL sales are also another part of our strategy and as part of a broader toolkit. The amount of portfolio sold in H1 is about TRY 8 billion, and we may undertake some additional sales during the remainder of the year. That said, portfolio sales are supplementary to our core approach. We do not see any upside risks to our guidance. We expect an NPL ratio of around 4%, including the NPL sales and net cost of risk below 250 basis points.
Mehmet Türk: Also, collection performance, on the other hand, is a key strength, with our collection rate continuing to be one of the highest among the peer group. NPL sales are also another part of our strategy and as part of a broader toolkit. The amount of portfolio sold in H1 is about TRY 8 billion, and we may undertake some additional sales during the remainder of the year. That said, portfolio sales are supplementary to our core approach. We do not see any upside risks to our guidance. We expect an NPL ratio of around 4%, including the NPL sales and net cost of risk below 250 basis points.
Speaker #3: NPL sales are also another part of our strategy. And as part of a broader toolkit, the amount of portfolio sold in the first half is about TRY 8 billion.
Speaker #3: And we may undertake some additional sales during the remainder of the year. That said, portfolio sales are supplementary to our core approach, so we do not see any upside risks to our guidance.
Speaker #3: So, we expect an NPL ratio of around 4%, including the NPL sales, and a net cost of risk below 250 basis points.
Speaker #5: Thank you very much.
Ashvat PC: Thank you very much.
Ashwath P T: Thank you very much.
Ebru Özşuca: We have a few more written questions. I believe some of them are already been answered, but let's go over them together. Valentina Stoykova writes: "Can you please explain how do you see your NII and margin outlook developing in the next two quarters and H1 2027?" I think 2027. From the net interest margin evolution, I can give roughly how it will evolve. We are expecting around at least 50 basis points increase in Q3 and at least 100 basis points increase in Q4, I can say, as a bottom line. Okay. We have a couple of IRB questions from Valentina again from the BNP Paribas, Mustafa Camikara. Basically, the questions are focusing on where will the positive impact on capital ratios come from? Is this a one-off benefit or is it sustainable? These are the questions.
Speaker #4: So we have a few more written questions. I believe some of them have already been answered, but let's go over them in the chat. So, Valentina Stoykova from Barclays: Can you please explain how you see your NII and margin outlook developing in the next two quarters and the first half of 2027?
Nilgün Osman: We have a few more written questions. I believe some of them are already been answered, but let's go over them together. Valentina Stoykova writes: "Can you please explain how do you see your NII and margin outlook developing in the next two quarters and H1 2027?"
Speaker #4: I think 2027.
Ebru Özşuca: I think 2027. From the net interest margin evolution, I can give roughly how it will evolve. We are expecting around at least 50 basis points increase in Q3 and at least 100 basis points increase in Q4, I can say, as a bottom line.
Speaker #2: From the net interest margin evolution, I can give roughly how it will evolve. You know, we are expecting around, you know, at least a 50 basis points increase in the third quarter and at least a 100 basis points increase in the fourth quarter, I can say, as a bottom line.
Nilgün Osman: Okay. We have a couple of IRB questions from Valentina again from the BNP Paribas, Mustafa Camikara. Basically, the questions are focusing on where will the positive impact on capital ratios come from? Is this a one-off benefit or is it sustainable? These are the questions.
Speaker #4: Okay, we have a couple of RB questions. From Valentina again, from BNP Paribas, and from Mustafa Kemal Karaköse. So basically, the questions are focusing on where the positive impact on capital operations will come from.
Speaker #4: Is this a one-off benefit or is it sustainable? Basically, these are the questions.
Speaker #2: Thank you for the question. You know, maybe I should just give a very general framework of the IRB approach. Under the new framework, internal models will be used to estimate risk parameters—risk parameters in the corporate and retail portfolios.
Ebru Özşuca: Thank you for the question. Maybe I should just give a very general framework of the IRB approach. Under the new framework, internal models will be used to estimate risk parameters in the corporate and retail portfolios. The models will also be embedded in our credit approval, pricing, and capital planning processes. As of June 2026, as we have already shown on our presentation, the IRB approach will add 220 basis points to our CET1 ratio and around 230 basis points to Tier 1 ratio. Again, on the capital excess ratio, we are expecting additional 190 basis points. It is coming from the, as I said, the internal model that will be used to estimate risk parameters in the corporate and retail portfolios, I can say. By each quarter, the calculations will be done accordingly.
Ebru Özşuca: Thank you for the question. Maybe I should just give a very general framework of the IRB approach. Under the new framework, internal models will be used to estimate risk parameters in the corporate and retail portfolios. The models will also be embedded in our credit approval, pricing, and capital planning processes. As of June 2026, as we have already shown on our presentation, the IRB approach will add 220 basis points to our CET1 ratio and around 230 basis points to Tier 1 ratio. Again, on the capital excess ratio, we are expecting additional 190 basis points. It is coming from the, as I said, the internal model that will be used to estimate risk parameters in the corporate and retail portfolios, I can say. By each quarter, the calculations will be done accordingly.
Speaker #2: The models will also be embedded in our credit approval, pricing, and capital planning processes. And as of June 2026, you know, as we have already shown in our presentation, the IRB approach will add 220 basis points to our CET1 ratio.
Speaker #2: And around 230 basis points to the Tier 1 ratio. And again, on the capital adequacy ratio, we are expecting an addition of 190 basis points.
Speaker #2: It is coming from the, as I said, the internal models that will be used to estimate risk parameters in the corporate and retail portfolios, I can say.
Speaker #2: So it, you know, by the each quarter, you know, you know, the calculations will be done according.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Okay. Our only remaining question is from Hakan Aydinark from Şeker Capital. Can you briefly discuss dynamics of your trading income generation in Q2 2026? Can you give a guidance on the progress of this line in the H2 of the year? I guess this has been already discussed. Yes.
Nilgün Osman: Okay. Our only remaining question is from Hakan Aydinark from Şeker Capital. Can you briefly discuss dynamics of your trading income generation in Q2 2026? Can you give a guidance on the progress of this line in the H2 of the year? I guess this has been already discussed.
Speaker #4: Okay. So our only remaining question is from Hakan Aygün Akyıldırım. Can you briefly discuss the dynamics of your trading income generation in the second quarter of 2026?
Speaker #4: Can you give guidance on the progress of this line in the second half of the year? I guess this has so—
Ebru Özşuca: Yes. Maybe just for going forward, I can say that, excluding swap trading, we can just assume it as a flattish.
Ebru Özşuca: Maybe just for going forward, I can say that, excluding swap trading, we can just assume it as a flattish.
Speaker #2: Maybe just for going forward, I can say that, you know, excluding swap trading, we can just, you know, estimate as flattish.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: I think Mustafa Kemal Karakas from BNP Paribas also has an audio question. Mustafa, can you unmute yourself, please?
Nilgün Osman: I think Mustafa Kemal Karakas from BNP Paribas also has an audio question. Mustafa, can you unmute yourself, please?
Speaker #4: I think Mustafa Kemal Karaköse from BNP Paribas also has an audio question. Mustafa, can you unmute yourself, please?
Mustafa Kemal Karakas: Hi.
Mustafa Kemal Karaköse: Hi.
Speaker #5: Hi.
Speaker #4: Can you hear us? We can't hear you. I think there's a problem with the voice. Let's follow up after the call, Mustafa, if we can.
Nilgün Yosef Osman: Can you hear us? We can't hear you. I think there's a problem with the voice. Let's follow up after the call, Mustafa.
Nilgün Osman: Can you hear us? We can't hear you. I think there's a problem with the voice. Let's follow up after the call, Mustafa.
Mustafa Kemal Karakas: Okay.
Mustafa Kemal Karaköse: Okay.
Mustafa Kemal Karakas: If we can. I think we do not have any remaining questions. I'm handing over to our presenters for closing remarks.
Nilgün Osman: If we can. I think we do not have any remaining questions. I'm handing over to our presenters for closing remarks.
Speaker #4: I think we do not have any remaining questions. I'm handing over to our presenters for closing remarks.
Speaker #2: Thank you very much for your participation. Regarding the details, please please stay in touch. Looking forward to seeing you all in person soon. Have a nice day.
Ebru Özşuca: Thank you very much for your participation. Regarding the details, please stay in touch. Looking forward to seeing you all in person soon. Have a nice day going forward. Goodbye.
Ebru Özşuca: Thank you very much for your participation. Regarding the details, please stay in touch. Looking forward to seeing you all in person soon. Have a nice day going forward. Goodbye.
Speaker #2: Going forward.
