Q2 2026 ADNOC Gas PLC Earnings Call

August 10, 2026

Speaker #1: Welcome to the ADNOC Gas Q2 2026 earnings call. Following the formal presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. During the Q&A, participants will be able to ask both text and live audio questions.

Operator: Welcome to the ADNOC Gas Q2 2026 earnings call. Following the formal presentation, there will be a question and answer session. During Q&A, participants will be able to ask both text and live audio questions. To ask a text question, select the messaging icon, type your question in the box towards the top of the screen, and press the Send button. To ask a live audio question, press the Request to Speak button at the top of the broadcast window. The broadcast will be replaced by the audio questions interface. Press Join Queue, and if prompted, select Allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. Please note that if you're using the dial-in number, press star one to join the queue to speak.

Operator: Welcome to the ADNOC Gas Q2 2026 Earnings Call. Following the formal presentation, there will be a question and answer session. During Q&A, participants will be able to ask both text and live audio questions. To ask a text question, select the messaging icon, type your question in the box towards the top of the screen, and press the Send button. To ask a live audio question, press the Request to Speak button at the top of the broadcast window. The broadcast will be replaced by the audio questions interface. Press Join Queue, and if prompted, select Allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. Please note that if you're using the dial-in number, press star one to join the queue to speak.

Speaker #1: To ask a text question, select the messaging icon. Type your question in the box toward the top of the screen and press the send button.

Speaker #1: To ask a live audio question, press the Request-to-Speak button at the top of the broadcast window. The broadcast will be replaced by the audio questions interface.

Speaker #1: Press 'Join Queue,' and if prompted, select 'Allow' in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. Please note, if you're using the dial-in number, press star one (*) to join the queue to speak.

Speaker #1: In both instances, you'll be placed in a queue, where you'll be able to listen to the meeting's proceedings while you wait for your turn to speak.

Operator: In both instances, you'll be placed in a queue where you'll be able to listen to the meeting's proceedings while you wait for your turn to speak. I will introduce each caller and ask you to go ahead with your questions. Thank you. I'll now hand over to Richard Griffith for the formal presentation.

Speaker #1: I will introduce each caller and ask you to go ahead with your questions. Thank you. I will now hand over to Richard Griffith for the formal presentation.

Speaker #2: Welcome to the ADNOC Gas Q2 2026 results conference call. My name is Richard Griffith, VP, Investor Relations. Next slide, please. Before we begin, please note the disclaimer and forward-looking statements included in the presentation.

Richard Griffith: Welcome to the ADNOC Gas Q2 2026 results conference call. My name is Richard Griffith, VP Investor Relations. Next slide, please. Before we begin, please note the disclaimer and forward-looking statements included in the presentation. Financial information includes ADNOC Gas proportionate consolidation of JV results, unless otherwise stated. Next slide, please.

Speaker #2: Financial information includes ADNOC Gas proportionate consolidation of JV results unless otherwise stated. Next slide, please. Today's speakers are Fatema Nuaimi, Chief Executive Officer, and Peter Vandriel, Chief Financial Officer.

Richard Griffith: Today's speakers are Fatema and Fatema Al Nuaimi, Chief Executive Officer, and Peter van Driel, Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand over the call to Fatema.

Speaker #2: I will now hand over the call to Fatema.

Speaker #3: Thank you, and good day everyone. Q2 2026 was one of the most challenging operational periods in ADNOC Gas's history. Despite the unprecedented disruption, our team delivered a resilient financial performance, protected our people, restored critical assets ahead of schedule, and maintained our growth trajectory.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: Thank you, and good day, everyone. Q2 2026 was one of the most challenging operational periods in ADNOC Gas' history. Despite the unprecedented disruption, our team delivered a resilient financial performance, protected our people, restored critical assets ahead of schedule, and maintained our growth trajectory. Our investment case remains anchored around three pillars: unconstrained growth, resilience, and an updated growth target. Unconstrained growth. ADNOC Gas benefits from access to the world's seventh-largest gas reserve and remains among the lowest-cost gas producers globally. Leaving OPEC removes upstream production caps, de-risking our growth target and allows for more growth in the future. Resilience. Our gas supply agreements provide structural downside protection, with around 70% of our sales volume having no direct Strait of Hormuz exposure.

Speaker #3: Our investment case remains anchored around three pillars: unconstrained growth, resilience, and unchanged growth targets. A. Unconstrained growth: ADNOC Gas benefits from access to the world's 7th largest gas reserve and remains among the lowest-cost gas producers globally.

Speaker #3: Leaving OPEC removes upstream production caps, de-risking our growth targets and allowing for more growth in the future. Resilience: Our gas supply agreements provide structural downside protection, with around 70% of our sales volume having no direct Strait of Hormuz exposure.

Speaker #3: And when we come to growth, following the sanctions of Ruwais gas development phases 2 and 3, we are targeting approximately 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 versus 2023.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: When we come to growth, following the sanctions of Rich Gas Development phases 2 and 3, we are targeting approximately 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 versus 2023. Next slide. The approval of Rich Gas Development phases 2 and 3 represents a transformational milestone for ADNOC Gas. Importantly, the UAE's exit from OPEC plus materially de-risks the investment case. Rich Gas Development phases 1, 2, and 3 can accommodate associated gas volume consistent with 5 million barrel per day oil production, with further upside if production increases beyond that level. As a result, committed growth capital has increased from approximately $20 billion to approximately $28 billion, supporting our upgraded EBITDA growth outlook to 60%. One of the key messages from this quarter is the resilience built into our business model. Approximately 70% of our sales volume, particularly domestic gas and condensate, are not exposed to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption.

Speaker #3: Next slide, please. The approval of rich gas development phases 2 and 3 represents a transformational milestone for ADNOC Gas. Importantly, the UAE's exit from OPEC+ materially de-risked the investment case. Rich gas development phases 1, 2, and 3 can accommodate associated gas volumes consistent with 5 million barrels per day oil production.

Speaker #3: With further upside if production increases beyond that level. As a result, committed growth capital has increased from approximately $20 billion to approximately $28 billion.

Speaker #3: Supporting our upgraded EBITDA growth outlook to 60%. Next, one of the key messages from this quarter is the resilience built into our business model.

Speaker #3: Approximately 70% of our sales volume, particularly domestic gas and condensate, are not exposed to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption. Around 30% of volume are exposed through LNG and certain export products.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: Around 30% of volumes are exposed through LNG and certain export products. This diversified revenue base significantly reduced the financial impact of regional disruption during the quarter. Turning to Habshan and our recovery. The emergency shutdown in April represented a significant operational challenge. However, our teams delivered an exceptional recovery. By June, approximately 85% of supply had been restored, significantly ahead of the original recovery plan. Full restoration remains expected in 2027. This rapid response demonstrates the resilience of our assets base and the capabilities of our operational and projects team. It also supports continued progress across our broader project portfolio. Next slide, please. While we have understandably focused on operational recovery in recent months, it is important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. We are now targeting approximately 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 versus 2023, as I said.

Speaker #3: This diversified revenue base significantly reduced the financial impact of regional disruption during the quarter. Turning to Habshan and our recovery, the emergency shutdown in April represented a significant operational challenge.

Speaker #3: However, our teams delivered an exceptional recovery. By June, approximately 85% of supply has been restored, significantly ahead of the original recovery plan. Full restoration remains expected in 2027.

Speaker #3: This rapid response demonstrates the resilience of our asset base and the capabilities of our operational and projects team. It also supports continued progress across our broader project portfolio.

Speaker #3: Next slide, please. So, while we have understandably focused on operational recovery in recent months, it is important not to lose sight of the bigger picture.

Speaker #3: We are now targeting approximately 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 versus 2023, as I said. This growth remains volume-led, with a 45% uplift over the same time horizon, and is supported by nearly $28 billion in committed investment.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: This growth remains volume-led, with 45% uplift over the same time horizon and is supported by nearly $28 billion committed investment. Moreover, the improving composition of our production mix will further support EBITDA growth. The commissioning of IGD-2 and the sanctioning of Rich Gas Development phases 2 and 3 reinforces our confidence in this outlook. Now, I hand you over to Peter to discuss the financial results.

Speaker #3: Moreover, the improving composition of our production mix will further support EBITDA growth. The commissioning of IGD-A2 and the sanctioning of rich gas development phases 2 and 3 reinforces our confidence in this outlook.

Speaker #3: Now, I hand you over to Peter to discuss the financial results.

Speaker #4: Thank you, Fatema.

Peter van Driel: Thank you, Fatema, and good afternoon. We've seen unprecedented disruptions. ADNOC Gas still delivered $665 million of net income during this quarter. It was achieved with zero harm to our people throughout the crisis. That is an important point to note. The anticipated restoration of Habshan has gone quicker than we anticipated. At the same time, we have been able to maintain the supply obligations to our customers. We, therefore, are very, very pleased to say that the resilience that is embedded in our operating model has come to fruition. That under, as I explained, a very challenging three months. Next slide. The Q2 income of $665 million exceeded the guidance that we provided on the back of Q1. That was at the time, a $400 to $600 million range.

Speaker #2: Good afternoon. We have seen unprecedented disruptions, and GAS still delivered $665 million of net income during this quarter. It was achieved with zero harm to our people throughout the crisis, and that is an important point to note.

Speaker #2: The anticipated restoration of Habshan has gone quicker than we anticipated, and at the same time, we have been able to maintain the supply obligations to our customers.

Speaker #2: We, therefore, are very, very pleased to say that the resilience that is embedded in our operating model has come to fruition, and that under, as I explained, a very challenging three months.

Speaker #2: Next slide. The Q2 income, or $665 million, exceeded the guidance that we provided on the back of Q1, and that was at the time a $400 to $600 million range.

Speaker #2: Very much at the time, but you see it again in the actual results, underpinned by very strong performance in the domestic markets. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.49 billion.

Peter van Driel: Very much at the time, you see it again in the actual results, underpinned by very strong performance in the domestic markets. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.49 billion. We have financing arrangements available of $6 billion, $2 billion for working capital purposes and $4 billion not used currently to support the growth. The dividend commitment remains secure. We continue to expect to distribute this year, $3.76 billion. That's for the full year. Q2 interim dividend is $940 million. That makes us still the largest dividend payer on the ADX. Next slide. Now let's go into more detail. On the slide, you see the performance of the domestic market. I mentioned before how resilient this market is. What, of course, was evident that volumes are impacted. We have seen that in the quarter.

Speaker #2: And we have financing arrangements available of $6 billion—$2 billion for working capital purposes, and $4 billion not used currently, to support the growth.

Speaker #2: The dividend commitment remains secure. We continue to expect to distribute this year $3.76 billion, and that's for the full year. Q2, in terms of dividend, is $940 million, and that makes us still the largest dividend payer on the ADX.

Speaker #2: Next slide. Now, let's go into more detail. On the slide, you see the performance of the domestic market. I mentioned before how resilient this market is.

Speaker #2: What, of course, was evident is that volumes are impacted, and we have seen that in the quarter. We not only meet the demand of our customers in the UAE, but we also re-inject gas.

Peter van Driel: We have not only demand that we satisfy of our customers in the UAE, we also reinject gas. That balance was optimized in order to enhance the EBITDA performance. You see the stability in the domestic market. The EBITDA is shown. Also, just note that the revenues are normalized back to the year 2025. In that way, you can see how the margins have been strong in this Q2 of the year 2026. Next slide. Now, let's look at the export market. Export and trading liquids, ETLs or LNG, in the Q2 declined on lower volumes. That is due to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. We also, again, have shown on the slide the pricing environment, again indexed at Q1 2025.

Speaker #2: And that balance was optimized in order to enhance the EBITDA performance. You see the stability in the domestic market. The EBITDA is shown—also, just note that the revenues are normalized back to the year 2025.

Speaker #2: And in that way, you can see how the margins have been strong in this second quarter of the year 2026. Next slide. Now, let's look at the export market.

Speaker #2: Export and trading liquids, ETLs, or LNG in the second quarter declined on lower volumes, and that is due to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaker #2: We have also again shown on the slide the pricing environment, indexed at Q1 2025. You can see that pricing was definitely positive during the quarter.

Peter van Driel: You see that the pricing was definitely positive during the quarter. We must also highlight that the pricing actually realized was impacted by higher shipping costs and insurance expenses. During this quarter, we optimized the ETLs, the export traded liquids, and LNG sales volumes. We have prioritized available volumes that were in tank at the time and to make optimal benefit of the price realization with opportunities that presented itself during the quarter. EBITDA margins, you saw on the slide, declined compared to the prior quarters. Again, you can see on the slide that that is largely explained by the lower volumes due to the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Next slide. Cash generation. The slide clearly shows how robust the H1 is when we compare H1 2026 with last year.

Speaker #2: But we must also highlight that the pricing actually realized was impacted by higher shipping costs and insurance expenses. So, during this quarter, we optimized the ETLs—the export traded liquids—and LNG sales volumes.

Speaker #2: And we have prioritized available volumes that were in tank at the time to make optimal benefit of the price realization, with opportunities that presented themselves during the quarter.

Speaker #2: EBITDA margins, as you saw on the slide, declined compared to prior quarters. And again, you can see on the slide that this is largely explained by the lower volumes due to the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaker #2: Next slide. Cash generation. The slide clearly shows how robust the first half is when we compare H1 2026 with last year. You see that the cash flow from operations excluding working capital exceeded our dividend obligations that we paid to our shareholders. As a reminder, we have a progressive dividend policy where we grow the dividend every year by 5%.

Peter van Driel: You see that the cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, exceeded our dividend obligations that we paid to our shareholders. As a reminder, we have a progressive dividend policy where we grow the dividend every year by 5%. Next slide. Looking forward. Last quarter, we guided for the full year net income to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion. We reiterate this quarter the guidance and the difference is, of course, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. We have factored in the latest view for 2026, the impact of the Habshan outage, and specifically for the next quarter, we have increased the guidance from a range of $600 to $800 million. Next slide. In detail. You see here, the usual metrics that we share with the investment community. We leave that for your own interpretation as well.

Peter van Driel: You see that the cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, exceeded our dividend obligations that we paid to our shareholders. As a reminder, we have a progressive dividend policy where we grow the dividend every year by 5%. Next slide. Looking forward. Last quarter, we guided for the full year net income to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion. We reiterate this quarter the guidance and the difference is, of course, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. We have factored in the latest view for 2026, the impact of the Habshan outage, and specifically for the next quarter, we have increased the guidance from a range of $600 to 800 million. Next slide. In detail. You see here, the usual metrics that we share with the investment community. We leave that for your own interpretation as well.

Speaker #2: Next slide. Looking forward, last quarter we guided for full-year net income to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion. We reiterated this guidance this quarter, and the difference is, of course, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaker #2: We have factored in the latest view for '26, the impact of the Habshan outage, and specifically for the next quarter, we have increased the guidance from a range of $600 million to $800 million.

Speaker #2: Next slide. In detail, you see here the usual metrics that we share with the investment community. We leave that for your own interpretation as well.

Speaker #2: But these numbers underpin our estimate of the full-year net income of $3.5 to $4 billion. Next slide. Now, over to the exciting part.

Peter van Driel: These numbers underpin our estimate of the full year net income of $3.5 to $4 billion. Next slide. Now, over to the exciting part. For some time, we have been evaluating the FID decisions around phase two and three of the Rich Gas Development. This decision has been made. We have announced that, and I'm pleased to say that in a $70 world, the EBITDA target in the period 2023 to 2030 will be 60%. As a reminder, our previous target was in the period 2023 to 2029, more than 40%. It is a major upgrade of our EBITDA ambitions. The 60%, and we'll go to the next slide, is underpinned by committed capital expenditures of $28 billion. That was previously $20 billion. We now add the contract awards for Rich Gas Development phase two and three, which is the $8.2 billion that you see on the slide.

Peter van Driel: These numbers underpin our estimate of the full year net income of $3.5 to 4 billion. Next slide. Now, over to the exciting part. For some time, we have been evaluating the FID decisions around phase two and three of the Rich Gas Development. This decision has been made. We have announced that, and I'm pleased to say that in a $70 world, the EBITDA target in the period 2023 to 2030 will be 60%. As a reminder, our previous target was in the period 2023 to 2029, more than 40%. It is a major upgrade of our EBITDA ambitions. The 60%, and we'll go to the next slide, is underpinned by committed capital expenditures of $28 billion. That was previously $20 billion. We now add the contract awards for Rich Gas Development phase two and three, which is the $8.2 billion that you see on the slide.

Speaker #2: For some time, we have been evaluating the FRD decisions around Phase 2 and 3 of the rich gas development. This decision has been made, and we have announced that.

Speaker #2: And I'm pleased to say that, in a $70 world, the EBITDA target in the period '23 to 2030 will be 60%. As a reminder, our previous target was, in the period '23 to '29, more than 40%.

Speaker #2: It is a major upgrade of our EBITDA ambitions. The 60%—and if we go to the next slide—is underpinned by committed capital expenditures of $28 billion.

Speaker #2: That was previously 20. We now add the contract awards for Habshan—sorry, for Rich Gas Development Phase 2 and 3—which is the $8.2 billion that you see on the slide.

Peter van Driel: Committed CapEx includes projects under construction for which we have taken an FID decision. Projects that are being studied and we have not taken an FID decision on are excluded from the $28 billion in the period 2026 to 2030. Next. If I look at the CapEx profile, we have guided for the year 2026 an amount of $4.5 to $5 billion. You saw that on the previous slide with all the details. We will step up our investments in 2027. Those investments relate very much to the first phase of the Rich Gas Development. That is the debottlenecking, and I always use this example. It is like the engine in your car that you tune, and you get more power out of this. This is what the debottlenecking exercise is about. It is across all of our facility.

Speaker #2: So committed capex includes projects under construction, for which we have taken an FRD decision. Projects that are being studied, and for which we have not taken an FRD decision, are excluded from the $28 billion in the period 2026 to 2030.

Peter van Driel: Committed CapEx includes projects under construction for which we have taken an FID decision. Projects that are being studied and we have not taken an FID decision on are excluded from the $28 billion in the period 2026 to 2030. Next. If I look at the CapEx profile, we have guided for the year 2026 an amount of $4.5 to 5 billion. You saw that on the previous slide with all the details. We will step up our investments in 2027. Those investments relate very much to the first phase of the Rich Gas Development. That is the debottlenecking, and I always use this example. It is like the engine in your car that you tune, and you get more power out of this. This is what the debottlenecking exercise is about. It is across all of our facility.

Speaker #2: Next. And if I look at the capex profile, we have guided for the year ’26 an amount of $4.5 to $5 billion. You saw that on the previous slide with all the details. We will step up our investments in ’27.

Speaker #2: Those investments relate very much to the first phase of the rich gas development. That is the de-bottlenecking, and I always use this example: it is like the engine in your car that you tune, and you get more power out of it.

Speaker #2: This is what the de-bottlenecking exercise is about. It is across all of our facility, and with that investment, we get more output from existing assets.

Peter van Driel: With that investment, we get more output from existing assets. As a reminder, Ruwais LNG is currently on the balance sheet of ADNOC, and in H2 2028, ADNOC Gas will acquire its shareholding in Ruwais LNG. Ruwais LNG is a 60% investment in the future for ADNOC Gas, and we've got the partners, Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and Mitsui in the venture. You see that in 2029, the impact, and that's also in the year 2028, very much Rich Gas Development phases two and three kick in, with some overrun in 2030. On the right-hand side, we have made a breakdown of the CapEx composition. We've categorized it into the maintenance activities to run and maintain. We've got several smaller projects, the growth projects that you see on the left-hand side.

Speaker #2: As a reminder, Always LNG is currently on the balance sheet of ADNOC, and in the second half of 2028, ADNOC Gas will acquire its shareholding in Always LNG.

Speaker #2: ALWAYS LNG is a 60% investment in the future for ADNOC Gas, and we've got the partners' share—Total, BP, and Mitsui—in the venture.

Speaker #2: You then see that in '29, the impact—and that's also in the year '28—very much, Rich Gas Development Phases 2 and 3 kick in, and with some overhang in 2030.

Speaker #2: On the right-hand side, we have made a breakdown of the CAPEX composition. We've categorized it into maintenance activities, the run and maintain, we've got several smaller projects, and then the growth projects that you see on the left-hand side.

Speaker #2: The percentage obviously changes by year, but we wanted to give you guidance on how these growth expenditures relate to our run-and-maintain, as well as smaller projects.

Peter van Driel: The percentages obviously change by year, but we wanted to give you a guidance on how these growth expenditures relate to our run and maintain and smaller projects. Next slide. I am sure many of you are familiar with this slide, where we outline our growth projects, the ambitious growth that we are contemplating and executing as we speak. Previously, we have Miran announced. That project is under construction in the execution phase. I just mentioned Ruwais LNG, also in the execution phase. The Rich Gas Development phase I, the debottlenecking, is making progress. Actually all sites at this very moment are part of this project. The new FID announcement made today is regarding phase II and III of the Rich Gas Development Project. Expect around 2029, 2030 that we will commission these projects.

Peter van Driel: The percentages obviously change by year, but we wanted to give you a guidance on how these growth expenditures relate to our run and maintain and smaller projects. Next slide. I am sure many of you are familiar with this slide, where we outline our growth projects, the ambitious growth that we are contemplating and executing as we speak. Previously, we have MERAM announced. That project is under construction in the execution phase. I just mentioned Ruwais LNG, also in the execution phase. The Rich Gas Development phase I, the debottlenecking, is making progress. Actually all sites at this very moment are part of this project. The new FID announcement made today is regarding phase II and III of the Rich Gas Development Project. Expect around 2029, 2030 that we will commission these projects.

Speaker #2: Next slide. I'm sure many of you are familiar with this slide, where we outline our growth projects—the ambitious growth that we are contemplating and executing as we speak.

Speaker #2: Previously, we have MIRAM announced that the project is under construction in the execution phase. I just mentioned Always LNG also in the execution phase. And the rich gas development phase 1, the de-bottlenecking is making progress, and actually, all sides at this very moment are part of this project.

Speaker #2: Now, the new FRD announcement made today is regarding Phase 2 and 3 of the Rich Gas Development project. Expect around 2029–2030 that we will commission these projects.

Speaker #2: And if you look at the two phases individually, Phase 2 is very much a gas train that is used to process raw gas, and that will largely find customers in the UAE.

Peter van Driel: If you look at the two phases individually, phase II is very much a gas train that is used to process raw gas, and that will largely find customers in the UAE. The phase III is an NGL train. That is a train that is used for export purposes. In Ruwais today, we have 4 trains already, fractionation trains, that are there to support the export of NGLs or rich gas. Those molecules are higher value add than the lean gas that finds its way in the UAE. Last but not least, what is pre-FID is Bab Gas Cap, another project. That is not committed CapEx. It is not part of the $28 billion that we referred to earlier. It is under assessment as we speak. When we have completed our assessments, we will inform the market whether a decision will be made or not. Next slide.

Peter van Driel: If you look at the two phases individually, phase II is very much a gas train that is used to process raw gas, and that will largely find customers in the UAE. The phase III is an NGL train. That is a train that is used for export purposes. In Ruwais today, we have four trains already, fractionation trains, that are there to support the export of NGLs or rich gas. Those molecules are higher value add than the lean gas that finds its way in the UAE. Last but not least, what is pre-FID is Bab Gas Cap, another project. That is not committed CapEx. It is not part of the $28 billion that we referred to earlier. It is under assessment as we speak. When we have completed our assessments, we will inform the market whether a decision will be made or not. Next slide.

Speaker #2: Phase 3 is an NGL train. That is a train that is used for export purposes. As of today, we have four trains already—fractionation trains that are there to support the export of NGLs or rich gas. Those molecules are higher value-add than the lean gas that finds its way in the UAE.

Speaker #2: Last but not least, what is pre-FRD is Babgas Cap, another project, so that is not committed capex. It's not part of the $28 billion.

Speaker #2: That we referred to earlier is under assessment as we speak, and when we have completed our assessments, then we will inform the market whether a decision will be made or not.

Speaker #2: Next slide. So if I look at what we now have in our policies—and let me summarize that one more time—we have a progressive dividend policy of 5% growth per year, and that policy runs until the year 2030.

Peter van Driel: If I look at what we now in our bullet points have, let me summarize that one more time. We have a progressive dividend policy of 5% growth per year, that policy runs until the year 2030. Originally, during the IPO, it was a commitment until 2027, but at the Majlis last year, we announced the extension from 2027 to 2030. That should give our shareholders a lot of confidence that the growth of 60% in EBITDA is underpinned by an extremely competitive dividend. The first payment will be in September, in respect of Q2. That is the $940 million that we announced. Just to look forward, if I see the years 2025 to 2030, it is an impressive amount of $24.4 billion. You can see on the right-hand slide how that plays out.

Speaker #2: Originally, during the IPO, it was a commitment until 2027, but at the March list last year, we announced the extension from 2027 to 2030, and that should give our shareholders a lot of confidence that the growth of 60% in EBITDA is underpinned by an extremely competitive dividend.

Speaker #2: The first payment will be in September in respect of Q2. That's the 940 million dollars that we announced and just to look back sorry look forward if I see the year 25 to 2030 it's an impressive amount of 24.4 billion dollars and you can see on the right-hand slide how that plays out.

Speaker #2: We started the IPO in March '23 with an amount of $3.25 billion, and that grows on the right-hand side to $4.6 billion. Last slide.

Peter van Driel: We started the IPO in March 2023 with an amount of $3.75, that grows, right-hand side, to the $4.6 billion. Last slide. We are embarking on an ambitious growth program that is extremely profitable, that will give us the upgraded target for EBITDA of 60%, comes with it a supply growth in volumes of 45%, it is requiring an investment of $28 billion. What is, I think, extremely positive if I look at ADNOC Gas, is the financial framework, which is extremely strong. We are showing you the slide, the use of money, the source of cash. At the end of Q2, we had $1.5 billion in cash, retained earnings, again, on 30 June, $5.4 billion. Going forward, we are going to use the balance sheet more. In 2027, we will start likely using the credit facilities that I described before.

Speaker #2: Now, we are embarking on an ambitious growth program that is extremely profitable. That will give us the upgraded target for EBITDA of 60%. It comes with supply growth in volumes of 45% and is requiring an investment of $28 billion.

Speaker #2: Now, what I think is extremely positive, if I look at ADNOC Gas, is the financial framework, which is extremely strong. We have shown you on the slides the use of money and also the source of cash.

Speaker #2: At the end of Q2, we had $1.5 billion in cash, and retained earnings, again, on June 30th, were $5.4 billion. Going forward, we're going to use the balance sheet more.

Speaker #2: In '27, we will likely start using the credit facilities that I described before, and that's the $4 billion that is in place, ready to be drawn down to finance the growth.

Peter van Driel: That's the $4 billion that is in place, ready to be drawn down to finance the growth. If I look forward at the projections for years 2026 up to 2030, we will not exceed 2 times EBITDA. That is a measure that we have imposed upon ourselves to ensure that the balance sheet is in balance. Overall, I think it is a company that has a huge amount of firepower. I know very few companies in the energy sector that are able to realize an ambition of 60% EBITDA growth in the time period 2026 to 2030. With that, I'm going to hand over to the moderator for the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

Peter van Driel: That's the $4 billion that is in place, ready to be drawn down to finance the growth. If I look forward at the projections for years 2026 up to 2030, we will not exceed 2x EBITDA. That is a measure that we have imposed upon ourselves to ensure that the balance sheet is in balance. Overall, I think it is a company that has a huge amount of firepower. I know very few companies in the energy sector that are able to realize an ambition of 60% EBITDA growth in the time period 2026 to 2030. With that, I'm going to hand over to the moderator for the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

Speaker #2: And if I look forward at the projections for years '26 up to 2030, we will not exceed two times EBITDA, and that is a measure that we have imposed upon ourselves to ensure that the balance sheet is in balance.

Speaker #2: But overall, I think it is a company that has a huge amount of firepower, and I know very few companies in the energy sector that are able to realize an ambition of 60% EBITDA growth in the time period 2026 to 2030.

Speaker #2: With that, I'm going to hand over to the moderator for the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

Speaker #1: Thank you. We will now proceed with the Q&A session. Just a reminder that participants can ask both text questions and live audio questions. To ask a text-based question, please select the messaging icon.

Operator: Thank you. We will now proceed with the Q&A session. Just a reminder that participants can ask both text questions and live audio questions. To ask a text-based question, please select the messaging icon, type your question in the box towards the top of the screen, and press the send button. If you wish to ask a live audio question, press the Request to Speak button at the top of the broadcast window. This will be replaced by the audio questions interface. Press Join Queue, and if prompted, select Allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. If you are using the dial-in number, please remember to press star one to join the queue to speak. Once you're in the queue, you can listen to the meeting's proceedings while you wait for your turn to speak.

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Speaker #1: I will introduce each caller, and you may go ahead once you hear a beep indicating that your microphone is live. We do have a dial-in question on the line to start.

Operator: I will introduce each caller. You may go ahead once you hear a beep indicating that your microphone is live. We do have a dial-in question on the line to start. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #1: You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #3: Hello. Thanks for taking my question. It's Ricardo Resende with Morgan Stanley. If I may, one follow-up on what Fatema mentioned about the new plants and the potential upside, assuming that you're ready for the 5 million barrels.

Ricardo Resende: Hello, thanks for taking my question. It's Ricardo Resende with Morgan Stanley. If I may, one follow-up on what Fatema mentioned about the new plant and the potential upside, assuming that you're ready for the 5 million barrels. If there's a scenario, if ADNOC goes beyond 5 million barrels, could the plants process those incremental molecules, or would that require more capacity and more CapEx? The second question, it's on Habshan, the repairs running way ahead of the original schedule. Would you be able to provide us some colors on why is that happening? Was that because the damages were to a lower extent that you had originally expected, or it's because you've been able to get the service companies to be running with a tighter timeframe? Thank you.

Ricardo Rezende: Hello, thanks for taking my question. It's Ricardo Rezende with Morgan Stanley. If I may, one follow-up on what Fatema mentioned about the new plant and the potential upside, assuming that you're ready for the 5 million barrels. If there's a scenario, if ADNOC goes beyond 5 million barrels, could the plants process those incremental molecules, or would that require more capacity and more CapEx? The second question, it's on Habshan, the repairs running way ahead of the original schedule. Would you be able to provide us some colors on why is that happening? Was that because the damages were to a lower extent that you had originally expected, or it's because you've been able to get the service companies to be running with a tighter timeframe? Thank you.

Speaker #3: If there's a scenario where ADNOC goes beyond 5 million barrels, could the plants process those incremental molecules, or would that require more capacity and more capex?

Speaker #3: And then the second question is on how can the repairing be running way ahead of the regional schedule. Would you be able to provide us some color on why that is happening?

Speaker #3: Was that because the damages were to a lower extent than you had originally expected, or is it because you’ve been able to get the service companies to be running with a tighter time frame?

Speaker #3: Thank you.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: Okay, if I got the question right, I will start with the second one, which is how we've managed to accelerate the recovery of the Habshan capacity. I'll summarize it as follows. One ADNOC Gas is today equipped with most of the resources required to execute mega projects. For us to step in and resolve and restore the assets, we have accessibility, which made it faster. That's one. Second, we have also the capabilities when we talk about resources and project management that enabled this to happen in a coordinated way. Third, that's also one critical one, and this is not a headline when we talk about AI and advanced technology or robotics. We have in the restoration example, a live example where tapping into AI and robotics helped us accelerate the recovery by more than 100 days earlier.

Speaker #4: Okay, so if I got the question right, I'll start with the second one, which is how we've managed to accelerate the recovery of the Habshan capacity.

Speaker #4: So I'll summarize it as follows: One, ADNOC Gas is today equipped with most of the resources required to execute mega projects. So for us to step in and resolve and restore the assets, we have accessibility, which made it faster.

Speaker #4: That's one. Second, we also have the capabilities, when we talk about resources and project management, that enabled this to happen in a coordinated way. Third, and this is also a critical one—and this is not a headline when we talk about AI and advanced technology or robotics.

Speaker #4: We have, in the restoration example, a live example where tapping into AI and robotics helped us accelerate the recovery by more than 100 days earlier.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: As part of the exercise, we had to inspect big area of our assets. To do this manually would have taken a lot of effort and exposed people to a risky environment. It saved us time and it saved and secured the safety of our people. The third question was?

Speaker #4: As part of the exercise, we had to inspect a big area of our assets. To do this manually would have taken a lot of effort and exposed people to a risky environment.

Speaker #4: So it saved us time, and it secured the safety of our people. The first question was:

Peter van Driel: Can we facilitate more growth than 5 million barrels per day with our ambitious growth program? In other words, can you do 5.5 as well?

Peter van Driel: Can we facilitate more growth than 5MMbpd with our ambitious growth program? In other words, can you do 5.5MMbpd as well?

Speaker #2: Can we facilitate more growth than 5 million barrels per day with our ambitious growth program? In other words, can you do 5.5 as well?

Speaker #4: Okay. So today, our focus, of course, is on enabling the 5 million barrels of oil and maximizing value out of these investments that we are making.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: Okay. Today, our focus, of course, is on enabling the 5 million barrel of oil and maximizing value out of these investments that we are making. In the future, when these plants of upstream are turned up, we will have to evaluate, because it depends on the quality, location of gas, and multiple technical aspects that needs to be evaluated. However, the fact that today we have one of the largest, if not the largest, gas processing facilities in the world, this gives us a lot of flexibility and optionality within ADNOC Gas.

Speaker #4: In the future, when these plants upstream are firmed up, we will have to evaluate, because it depends on the quality and location of the gas, and multiple technical aspects that need to be evaluated.

Speaker #4: However, the fact that today we have one of the largest, if not the largest, gas processing facilities in the world gives us a lot of flexibility and optionality within ADNOC Gas.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a dial-in question. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your question.

Operator: Our next question is a dial-in question. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #3: Good afternoon, everyone. It's Scott Dowling here from Cantor Fitzgerald. Congratulations on the results and also the project update—it's very positive in the long term.

Scott Darling: Good afternoon, everyone. It's Scott Darling here from Cantor Fitzgerald. Congratulations on the results and also the project update. It's very positive in the long term. I have a couple of questions. The first is, we all keep thinking the Strait of Hormuz will be open. Increasingly it's looking like it might not be this year, possibly even next year. How might that impact your profitability? Also as you scale up or develop some of these growth projects? That's my first question, because on our last call, we were talking about the Strait of Hormuz opening by end of Q2. You've given the same net income guidance as you've done today. That's the first question. Secondly, on RGD Phase II and III, how much contingency have you built into these projects?

Scott Darling: Good afternoon, everyone. It's Scott Darling here from Cantor Fitzgerald. Congratulations on the results and also the project update. It's very positive in the long term. I have a couple of questions. The first is, we all keep thinking the Strait of Hormuz will be open. Increasingly it's looking like it might not be this year, possibly even next year. How might that impact your profitability? Also as you scale up or develop some of these growth projects? That's my first question, because on our last call, we were talking about the Strait of Hormuz opening by end of Q2. You've given the same net income guidance as you've done today. That's the first question. Secondly, on RGD Phase 2 and 3, how much contingency have you built into these projects?

Speaker #3: I had a couple of questions. The first is, we all keep thinking the Straits of Hormuz will be open, but increasingly it's looking like it might not be.

Speaker #3: This year, possibly even next year. I mean, how might that impact your profitability, and also as you scale up or develop some of these growth projects?

Speaker #3: That's my first question, because on our last call we were talking about the Straits of Hormuz opening by the end of Q2, and you've given the same net income guidance as you've done today.

Speaker #3: That's the first question. Secondly, on phase two—RGD phase two and three—I mean, how much contingency have you built into these projects? If I listen to a lot of EPC guys in the region, they're talking about next year's cost inflation and things like this.

Scott Darling: If I listen to a lot of EPC guys in the region, they're talking about next year's cost inflation and things like this. How confident are you on those delivered on the CapEx you're highlighting, which is impressive considering what you said earlier in the year in terms of the CapEx? That's my two questions. Thank you very much.

Speaker #3: So, how confident are you on those delivered, sort of, on the capex you’re highlighting, which is impressive considering what you said earlier in the year in terms of the capex?

Speaker #3: Those are my two questions. Thank you very much.

Peter van Driel: Scott, Peter here. Thanks for the questions. Strait of Hormuz. I think what you're alluding to is correct, right? Uncertainty around when it will open. I think it's not just opening the Strait of Hormuz, it is also about normalizing traffic, right? Opening it is one thing, getting a usual flow or vessel movements in and out of the Gulf is something different. We recognize the uncertainty. I, at this stage, do not want to go into a timeframe beyond the year 2026. I think to your point, given that uncertainty, we have guided the three and a half to $4 billion net income for the full year. That half a billion should cater for some of the uncertainty that you described. This is balanced with a domestic market that has proven to be very resilient.

Speaker #2: Scott, Peter here. Thanks for the questions. Strait of Hormuz—I think what you’re alluding to is correct, right? Uncertainty around when it will open. And I think it’s not just opening the Strait of Hormuz; it is also about normalizing traffic, right?

Speaker #2: Opening is one thing. Getting a usual flow of vessel movements in and out of the Gulf is something different. And we recognize the uncertainty, and I, at this stage, do not want to go into a time frame beyond the year 2026. But I think, to your point, given that uncertainty, we have guided the $3.5 to $4 billion net income for the full year.

Speaker #2: And that half a billion should cater for some of the uncertainty that you described. This is balanced with a domestic market that has proven to be very resilient.

Speaker #2: And I'm encouraged when I look at the breakdown between those two segments, how well the domestic market is performing, and we share that information with you.

Peter van Driel: I'm encouraged when I look at the breakdown between those two segments, how well the domestic market is performing. We share the information with you. It can't be denied that the impact, especially at the beginning of Q2, the regional conflict was visible. If I now look at my results for July, I am encouraged by what I'm seeing. The resilience is definitely there. Your other point about cost, I think you asked a question about phase II and III, how much contingency we've built in this.

Speaker #2: It can't be denied that the impact, especially at the beginning of Q2, or the regional conflict, was visible. But if I now look at my results for July, I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing.

Speaker #2: The resilience is definitely there. And your other point about cost—and I think you asked a question about, right, Phase Two and Three—how much contingency we've built into this.

Speaker #2: Which is, of course, something that we've seen in the region: there is a lot of pressure on cost, and not necessarily in the right direction.

Peter van Driel: Which is, of course, something that we've seen in the region, that there is a lot of pressure on cost, and not necessarily in the right direction. However, what is extremely important is that the majority of our contracts, but certainly phase II and III of the Rich Gas Development, is a so-called EPC contract. The price risk is not necessarily with us. It is a fixed price arrangement whereby that risk, to a large extent, is mitigated for the company. In this environment with cost pressures, it is very important to carefully consider your procurement strategy. That is why we have chosen an EPC contract for phase II and III, and they are not the only ones. Mirfa, Ruwais, they're all EPC contracts. That gives us a lot of price protection.

Peter van Driel: Which is, of course, something that we've seen in the region, that there is a lot of pressure on cost, and not necessarily in the right direction. However, what is extremely important is that the majority of our contracts, but certainly Phase 2 and 3 of the Rich Gas Development, is a so-called EPC contract. The price risk is not necessarily with us. It is a fixed price arrangement whereby that risk, to a large extent, is mitigated for the company. In this environment with cost pressures, it is very important to carefully consider your procurement strategy. That is why we have chosen an EPC contract for phase II and III, and they are not the only ones. Mirfa, Ruwais, they're all EPC contracts. That gives us a lot of price protection.

Speaker #2: However, what is extremely important is that the majority of our contracts—but certainly phase two and three of the rich gas development—is a so-called EPC contract.

Speaker #2: And the price risk is not necessarily with us. It is a fixed-price arrangement whereby that risk, to a large extent, is mitigated for the company.

Speaker #2: So, in this environment with cost pressures, it is very important to carefully consider your procurement strategy, and that is why we have chosen an EPC contract for Phase Two and Three. And they are not the only ones.

Speaker #2: They're all EPC contracts that give us a lot of price protection.

Operator: We have another dial-in question caller. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your questions.

Speaker #1: We have another dial-in question, caller. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your questions.

Speaker #3: Hello, it's Alex from JP Morgan. Can you hear me?

Alex Kemp: Hello, it's Alex from JPMorgan. Can you hear me?

Alex Comer: Hello, it's Alex from JPMorgan. Can you hear me?

Speaker #2: Yes, we can Alex.

Peter van Driel: Yes, we can, Alex.

Speaker #3: Hello. Yeah, just a quick question. When I look at the 60% EBITDA target, just sort of working this back, that seems to be at $3.5 billion above what you did in '25 and was roughly at $7 a barrel there.

Alex Kemp: Hello. Just a quick question. When I look at the 60% EBITDA target, just sort of working this back, that seems to be about $3.5 billion above what you did in 2025, and oil was roughly at $7 a barrel there. That implies, from what I can see, about sort of 16% EBITDA return on the roughly $22 billion of growth CapEx you've outlined, which seems a little skinny to me, unless the tax rate on these projects is low. Maybe you would like to sort of just elaborate on that. What tax rate have you got embedded in this 16% growth target? As I said, it looks to me like the implication is relatively low tax from what I've just sort of said to you, but I may not have calculated that correctly.

Alex Comer: Hello. Just a quick question. When I look at the 60% EBITDA target, just sort of working this back, that seems to be about $3.5 billion above what you did in 2025, and oil was roughly at $7 a barrel there. That implies, from what I can see, about sort of 16% EBITDA return on the roughly $22 billion of growth CapEx you've outlined, which seems a little skinny to me, unless the tax rate on these projects is low. Maybe you would like to sort of just elaborate on that. What tax rate have you got embedded in this 16% growth target? As I said, it looks to me like the implication is relatively low tax from what I've just sort of said to you, but I may not have calculated that correctly.

Speaker #3: So that implies, from what I can see, about a 16% EBITDA return on the roughly $22 billion of growth capex you’ve outlined. Which seems a little skinny to me, unless the tax rate on these projects is low.

Speaker #3: So maybe you would like to just elaborate on that. What tax rate have you got embedded in this 16% growth target?

Speaker #3: Because, as I said, it looks to me like the implication is relatively low tax from what I've just sort of said to you. But I may not have calculated that correctly.

Speaker #2: Clear. We make investment decisions for a long period. We use a 30-year horizon. When we undertake our economics, we screen them at different oil prices, but for sure, we include the appropriate tax rate.

Peter van Driel: Clear. We make investment decisions for a long period. We use a 30-year horizon. If we undertake our economics, we screen them at different oil prices. For sure, we include the appropriate tax rate. The mere fact that ADNOC Gas enjoys a tax holiday of 5 years, 2023 to 2027, is not at all something we take into account for our economics when we screen for returns. The tax rate, and just as a reminder, on our exports is 55% taxable income. For the domestic market, it is 15% over the first billion of taxable income and 35% above. We normally have a pretty good idea when we make investments, how the distribution between domestic and exports takes place, and that then drives your effective tax rate for the investment horizon. There are always exceptions.

Speaker #2: So the mere fact that ADNOC Gas enjoys a tax holiday of five years, 2023 to 2027, is not at all something we take into account for our economics when we screen for returns.

Speaker #2: And the tax rate, just as a reminder, on our exports is 55%. Taxable income for the domestic market is 15% over the first $1 billion of taxable income, and 35% above that.

Speaker #2: Now, we normally have a pretty good idea, when we make investments, how the distribution between domestic and exports takes place. That then drives your effective tax rate for the investment horizon.

Speaker #2: So there are always exceptions if you look at Train 5, Phase 3, or the rich gas development, which is more export-focused.

Peter van Driel: If you look at the Train 5, the phase 3 of the Rich Gas Development, which is more export-focused, we will apply a higher tax rate. If you look at Option 7, phase 2 of the Rich Gas Development, that is much more in use for the domestic market, we will lower the effective rate. To answer your question, our economics, our returns include the applicable tax rates, I still can stand by an earlier statement that I've made on several occasions that our returns remain mid-teen returns. Thanks.

Speaker #2: We will apply a higher tax rate if you look at option seven, phase two, or the rich gas development that is much more in use for the domestic market.

Speaker #2: We will lower the effective rate, but to answer your question, our economics—our returns—include the applicable tax rates. I still stand by an earlier statement that I've made on several occasions.

Speaker #2: That our returns remain mid-teen returns. Thanks.

Operator: Our next question is an audio question. You're now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #1: Our next question is an audio question. You're now live—feel free to introduce yourself and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #2: Hello, this is Musa Raslani from 70 Investment. Help me to confirm I'm correct from the perspective that the profit share is charged on the product earnings after depreciation, so as the 28 billion now, from rising depreciation and amortization, the profit share paid to ADNOC falls.

Musa Raslani: Hello, this is Musa Raslani from Sabeen Investment. Help me to confirm and connect from the prospectus. The profit share is charged on product earnings after depreciation. As the $28 billion now program rises, depreciation and amortization, the profit share paid to ADNOC falls. Is that reading correct?

Moussa Alraslani: Hello, this is Moussa Alraslani from Sabeen Investment. Help me to confirm and connect from the prospectus. The profit share is charged on product earnings after depreciation. As the $28 billion now program rises, depreciation and amortization, the profit share paid to ADNOC falls. Is that reading correct?

Speaker #2: Is that reading correct?

Speaker #3: So as a reminder—and I think you teed up the question correctly, right?—we have in place a GSPA, and the GSPA represents the terms and conditions under which we acquired gas from ADNOC.

Peter van Driel: As a reminder, and I think you teed up the question correctly, right? We have in place a GSPA, and the GSPA represents the terms and conditions under which we acquire the gas from ADNOC. Now, the GSPA, in terms of pricing, has a minimum gas price, which is a fixed amount, and you have then a profit share. It means that when, for example, an oil price comes down, our profit share that we pay to ADNOC is reduced, and that is the embedded hedge that is in our operating model. It means that in a falling oil price, and if you go back to the statements we made in the year 2024 and 2025, you saw clearly the benefit of cheaper feedstock in a lower oil price environment. Now, if you then look at how the profit share works, that is the applicable revenue per product.

Speaker #3: Now, the GSPA in terms of pricing has a minimum gas price, which is a fixed amount, and you have then a profit share. It means that when, for example, the oil price comes down, our profit share that we pay to ADNOC is reduced, and that is the embedded hedge that is in our operating model. It means that in a falling oil price environment—and if you go back to the statements we made in the years '24 and '25—you saw clearly the benefit of cheaper feedstock in a lower oil price environment.

Speaker #3: Now, if you then look at how the profit share works, that is the applicable revenue per product, right? It is by product, and you then deduct your costs, and that will give you the appropriate amount of profit share that we pay to ADNOC.

Peter van Driel: It is by-product, and you then deduct your cost, and that will give you the appropriate amount of profit share that we pay to ADNOC on top of the minimum gas price. You subsequently use this to calculate your taxable income. As I explained earlier, the rates differ for the export market and the domestic market. That concludes how we make these calculations, and I hope this answers your question on how this waterfall works.

Speaker #3: On top of the minimum gas price, you subsequently use this to calculate your taxable income. And as I explained earlier, the rates differ for the export market and the domestic market, and that concludes how we make these calculations. I hope this answers your question on how this waterfall works.

Speaker #1: Our next question is an audio question. You're now live—feel free to introduce yourself and please go ahead with your question.

Operator: Our next question is an audio question. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #3: Yes, good afternoon. Jean-Pierre Merjean from Kepler Chevreux. Thanks very much for taking my question. I wanted to ask about a product you don't talk about much, but its price has surged so dramatically in recent months that I think it's worth discussing.

Jean Ané: Yes, good afternoon. Jean Pierre Mersch from Kepler Cheuvreux. Thanks very much for taking my question. I wanted to ask about a product you don't talk about much, but its price has surged so dramatically in recent months that I think it's worth discussing. It's sulfur, of course. You haven't been able to fully benefit from the higher prices because of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. My question is, could you potentially export sulfur by rail to Fujairah on the East Coast and monetize it from there in Q3 or at a later stage? Thank you.

Jean-Pierre Dmirdjian: Yes, good afternoon. Jean-Pierre Dmirdjian from Kepler Cheuvreux. Thanks very much for taking my question. I wanted to ask about a product you don't talk about much, but its price has surged so dramatically in recent months that I think it's worth discussing. It's sulfur, of course. You haven't been able to fully benefit from the higher prices because of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. My question is, could you potentially export sulfur by rail to Fujairah on the East Coast and monetize it from there in Q3 or at a later stage? Thank you.

Speaker #3: It's sulfur, of course. You haven't been able to fully benefit from the higher prices because of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. So my question is: could you potentially export sulfur by rail to Fujairah on the east coast and monetize it from there in Q3 or at a later stage?

Speaker #3: Thank you.

Speaker #4: So thank you for your question, and yes, definitely, sulfur these days is one of the highest priced. It usually used to be looked at as a byproduct, but today it's a main product that contributes to the bottom line.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: Thank you for your question. Yes, definitely sulfur these days is one of the highest priced and usually used to be looked at as a by-product, but today it's a main product that contributes to the bottom line. Because of its nature, of course, it's easier to export and find alternative routes. Part of our already executed plans is to export it by land and through trucks, especially for the markets that are close by, which is Middle East market. This is already in place in terms of trucking of sulfur production.

Speaker #4: And because of its nature, of course it's easier to export and find alternative routes, so part of our already executed plans is to export it by land and through trucks, especially for the markets that are close by, which is Middle East markets.

Speaker #4: So, this is already in place in terms of trucking of sulfur products.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a dial-in question. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself and please go ahead with your question.

Operator: Our next question is a dial-in question. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #3: Hello, it's Alex again from J.P. Morgan. Just on this question of the growth between '23 and '30. You've given an EBITDA figure of 60%.

Alex Kemp: Hello. It's Alex Kemp, JPMorgan. On this question of the growth between 2023 and 2030, you've given an EBITDA figure of 60%. I just wonder what does your net income grow by over that period?

Alex Comer: Hello. It's Alex Comer, JPMorgan. On this question of the growth between 2023 and 2030, you've given an EBITDA figure of 60%. I just wonder what does your net income grow by over that period?

Speaker #3: I just wonder, what does your net income grow by over that period?

Speaker #2: I'm not supposed to say to you, "You can calculate that easily yourself." But let me give you the moving part, Alex. So if we go from our EBIT average to net income, the few moving parts, in the shorter term, you will see that we're going to use the balance sheet.

Peter van Driel: I'm not supposed to say to you can calculate that easily yourself, let me give you the moving parts, Alex. If we go from our EBIT average to net income, there are a few moving parts. In the shorter term, you will see that we're going to use the balance sheet. If you look at the accounting rules, any interest charges are to be capitalized. That means that after a project is commissioned and production and revenues are realized, your interest starts to hit your P&L. Now, that is the first part. I think you will have the appropriate depreciation. I think as a rule of thumb, we use 40 years for these kind of projects. I know there are always exceptions. It ranges, roughly speaking, between the 30 and 40.

Speaker #2: And if you look at the accounting rules, any interest charges are to be capitalized. That means that after a project is commissioned and production and revenues are realized, your interest starts to hit your P&L.

Speaker #2: Now, that is the first part. I think you will then have the appropriate depreciation. I think, as a rule of thumb, we use 40 years for these kinds of projects, and there are always exceptions, right?

Speaker #2: It ranges, roughly speaking, between 30 and 40. But as a rule of thumb, I think that would be, I think, the number that might be useful, too.

Peter van Driel: As a rule of thumb, I think that would be the number that might be useful to you. It's back to the tax. The tax holiday expires at the end of 2027. If you look at the calculation, we take 60% multiplied by 761 in 2023 EBITDA, you'll get to somewhere north of $12 billion. You take into account in that year a certain amount of interest. Do note that you saw the CapEx profile, there is always a delay on repaying your loans, I think that's a good indication. The tax that we use effectively in the year 2030, just to give you a bit of a feel, is about 40%. I think for the modeling, it's pretty straightforward in that sense. I hope with these pointers, it makes it a bit easier.

Speaker #2: And then it's back to the tax, right? So the tax holiday expires at the end of '27. So if you look at the calculation and we take 60% multiplied by $761 million in '23 EBITDA, you'll get to somewhere north of $1.2 billion.

Speaker #2: You take into account, in that year, a certain amount of interest. But do note that you saw the capex profile, and there is always a delay on repaying your loans. But I think that's a good indication.

Speaker #2: The text that we use effectively in the year 2030, just to give you a bit of a feel, is about 40%. So I think for the modeling, it's pretty straightforward in that sense, but I hope you know with these pointers, it makes it a bit easier.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Ahmed Kamal of Azimut. They ask, can you elaborate more on the logistical initiatives you are taking to bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Ahmed Kamal of Azimut, they ask, Can you elaborate more on the logistical initiatives you are taking to bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Can ADNOC Gas, over the next couple of years, reduce the Strait of Hormuz reliance to zero, or will this take longer than that?

Speaker #1: Can ADNOC Gas, over the next couple of years, reduce the Strait of Hormuz reliance to zero, or will this take longer than that?

Speaker #4: Okay. So while we continue, of course, monitoring our operations and business continuity day in and day out, and working closely with the different markets and customers around the world to make the volume available to them whenever possible, we are looking at the longer term and what are the options that could enable us to de-risk the Strait of Hormuz and the logistical constraints we have.

Fatema Al Nuaimi: Okay. While we continue, of course, monitoring our operations and business continuity day in and day out and working closely with the different markets and customers around the world, and make the volume available to them whenever possible, we are looking at the longer term and what are the options that could enable us to de-risk the Strait of Hormuz and the logistical constraints we have. Do we have today a firm plan to share? No. We are working on different options and different alternatives to achieve that target.

Speaker #4: So, do we have today a firm plan to share? No. But we are working on different options and different alternatives to achieve that target.

Speaker #1: A follow-up question from Ahmed Kamal. Is the Habshan repair capex included in the $28 billion capex bill? Also, have there been any discussions with ADNOC Group regarding covering the repair costs, given that the damage resulted from a terrorist act?

Operator: A follow-up question from Ahmed Kamal. Is the Habshan repair CapEx included in the $28 billion CapEx bill? Also, have there been any discussions with ADNOC Group regarding covering the repair costs given that the damage resulted from a terrorist act?

Speaker #2: Yeah. There was a slide that shows the bridge between the $20 billion committed capex and the $28 billion committed capex after taking FIB on risk gas development phase two and three.

Peter van Driel: Yeah. There was a slide that shows the bridge between the $20 billion committed CapEx and the $28 billion committed CapEx after taking FID on Rich Gas Development phase two and three. For now, we have included $1.5 billion, which will be likely spent over 2026, 2027. It comes, however, with a health warning. I think at this moment it remains challenging to come up with a very accurate estimate. Although as time progresses, it gets easier. We had, as we said before, a lot of good progress with reinstating the facilities. The 85% of supply is reinstated ahead of what we expected, but there is still work to be done on some parts of the plant, and for that, we do not have all the cost estimates. Hence, a bit of uncertainty. We put in the $1.5.

Speaker #2: For now, we have included $1.5 billion, which will likely be spent over '26–'27. It comes, however, with a health warning. I think at this moment it remains challenging to come up with a very accurate estimate, although as time progresses it gets easier.

Speaker #2: As we said before, we have made a lot of good progress with reinstating the facilities. Eighty-five percent of supply has been reinstated, which is ahead of what we expected. However, there is still work to be done on some parts of the plant, and for that, we do not have all the cost estimates yet.

Speaker #2: Hence, a bit of uncertainty. We put in the $1.5—I would see it as a conservative number, but at the same time, you cannot decline there is money involved.

Peter van Driel: I would see it as a conservative number, at the same time, you cannot see time. There is money involved, let's be clear. Insurance doesn't cover that. All right? These are acts of war, and for that, we don't have insurance coverage for the full amount. There are partial payments, but that is not enough for the full restoration of Habshan.

Speaker #2: Let's be clear. And insurance doesn't cover that, right? These are acts of war, and for that, we don't have insurance coverage for the full amount.

Speaker #2: There are partial payments, but that is not enough for the full restoration of Habshan.

Speaker #1: Our next question is from Ildar Kaziev of HSBC. Could you please provide more details about the new 45% volume growth guidance? What are the expected growth rates for domestic gas and ETL separately, and what is your oil price assumption behind the new 60% EBITDA growth guidance over 2023 to 2030?

Operator: Our next question is from Ildar Khaziev of HSBC. Could you please provide more details about the new 45% volume growth guidance? What are the expected growth rates for domestic gas and ETL separately, and what is your oil price assumption behind the new 60% EBITDA growth guidance over 2023 to 2030? Thank you.

Speaker #1: Thank you.

Speaker #2: First point to make—and thank you for that—the 60% EBITDA growth is based on an oil price scenario of $70 per barrel. $70 per barrel is used to calculate the 60%.

Peter van Driel: First point to make, and thank you for that. The 60% EBITDA growth is based on an oil price scenario of $70 per barrel. $70 per barrel is used to calculate the 60%. If you then look at the volume growth, basically today, I've quoted this is quite often under normal circumstances, two-thirds of the volumes go to the domestic market, one-third of our volumes is exported. In the revenues, it is exactly the other way around. Given where we are today with the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, these percentages are subject to change. Longer term, that mix is not going to change in a material way. Having said that, there is one exception to the rule. For example, there is Fujairah LNG, which is pure for export.

Speaker #2: If you then look at the volume growth, basically today, as quoted, quite often under normal circumstances, two-thirds of the volumes go to the domestic market, and one-third of our volumes is exported. In revenues, it's exactly the other way around.

Speaker #2: Now, given where we are today with the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, these percentages are subject to change. But, longer term, that mix is not going to change in a material way.

Speaker #2: Having said that, there is one exception to the rule. For example, that's always LNG, which is purely for export, and it is not big enough to materially change the two-thirds, one-third rule, but you see a bit of a shift.

Peter van Driel: It is not big enough to materially change the two-thirds, one-third rule, but you see a bit of a shift. All right? If we look at the growth in the UAE, we look at various factors. It is the GDP growth, it's the population growth in the UAE, it is the wish to electrify more. That is something not only applicable to the UAE but also to the export markets. That, of course, means that we will supply more gas to the power sector. For the ETLC exports, we still go by, and I think this is all public information. If you look at several S&P agencies, we recently looked at the energy outlook for one of the IOCs. It all flags a lot of growth in gas demand, in particular in Asia. Right?

Speaker #2: Right? If we look at the growth in the UAE, we look at various factors. It is the GDP growth, it's the population growth in the UAE.

Speaker #2: It is the wish to electrify more, and that is something not only applicable to the UAE but also to the export markets. And that, of course, means that we will supply more gas to the power sector.

Speaker #2: For the ETLs, the exports we still go by—and I think this is all public information—if you look at several S&P agencies, we recently looked at the LNG outlook for one of the IOCs. It all flags a lot of growth in gas demand, in particular in Asia.

Speaker #2: Right? So, we use these outlooks, these growth numbers, for our forecast and, in particular, the target of the 60% EBITDA growth. That’s $70. But we use the same numbers also when we make our economic decisions when taking an FID.

Peter van Driel: We use these outlooks, these growth numbers, for our forecast and in particular the targets of the 60% EBITDA growth at $70. We use these same numbers also when we make our economic decisions when taking an FID. In short, I do not believe there is a material change between domestic and export markets. It is underpinned by solid demand growth in gas as a transition fuel, and I hope that gives you a flavor for how we assess these numbers that lead us to the 60% EBITDA growth in 2030 at the $70 scenario.

Speaker #2: So, in short, I do not believe there is a material change between domestic and export markets. It is underpinned by solid demand growth in gas as a transition fuel, and I hope that gives you a flavor for how we assess these numbers that lead us to the 60% EBITDA growth.

Speaker #2: In 2030, at the $70 scenario.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Ahmed Kamal of Azimut: Is the 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 assuming full utilization of RGD phases two and three, or will there be a further step up in 2031?

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Ahmed Kamal of Azimut. Is the 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 assuming full utilization of RGD phases two and three, or will there be a further step up in 2031?

Peter van Driel: I see the question. It is a difficult one to answer. Let me tell you why. Because we have many production facilities, depending on where the raw gas is coming from, we optimize that, and we use artificial intelligence for that. What is the best place to process the gas? In some cases, you don't have a choice because the reservoir that feeds the stream has a certain quality, and we are limited in the choice. There are definitely opportunities where we can enhance the value, and again, AI is wonderful for that purpose, and then we start optimizing. Now, two and three, and about your question, what's the utilization of those two facilities, are going to highly likely be utilized as much as possible. Why is that? It is a very new plant.

Speaker #2: I see the question, and it is a difficult one to answer. Let me tell you why. We have many, many production facilities, and depending on where the raw gas is coming from, we optimize that—and we use artificial intelligence for that.

Speaker #2: What is the best place to process the gas? In some cases, you don't have a choice because the reservoir that feeds the stream has a certain quality, and we are limited in our choice.

Speaker #2: But there are definitely opportunities where we can enhance the value, and again, AI is wonderful for that purpose. And then we start optimizing. Now, two and three—and about your question, what's the utilization of those two facilities—are going to highly likely be utilized as much as possible.

Speaker #2: And why is that? It is a very new plant. That means that they're running even more efficiently. That they are even cheaper. They are largely AI controlled, right?

Peter van Driel: That means that they're running even more efficient, that are even more cheaper. They are largely AI controlled, right? We got a control room where we have fewer and fewer humans in it. The maintenance costs are lower. That, I think, will be the overarching objective when I speak about maximizing the value from certain facilities. These new plants are super effective and very much powered by all sorts of AI tools that enhance the value. It does not necessarily that you will, every day, reach 100%, right? That is not what I'm saying, but you probably will prioritize in your day-to-day operations, the best placed and newest plants within the restrictions of how the quality of a feed comes to your plant.

Speaker #2: Because the control room, where we have fewer and fewer humans in it, the maintenance costs are lower. So that, I think, will be the overarching objective when I speak about maximizing the value from certain facilities.

Speaker #2: These new plants are super effective and very much powered by all sorts of AI tools that enhance the value. It does not necessarily mean that you will reach 100% every day, right?

Speaker #2: That is not what I'm saying. But you probably will prioritize, in your day-to-day operations, the best-placed and newest plants, within the restrictions of how the quality of feed comes to your plant.

Speaker #1: A further question from Ahmed Kamal: What is the underlying UAE oil production that the ADNOC Gas current capex plans can handle? Will there be additional capex needs if the UAE decides to go to 6 million barrels per day?

Operator: A further question from Ahmed Kamal. What is the underlying UAE oil production that ADNOC Gas current CapEx plans can handle? Will there be additional CapEx needs if the UAE decides to go to 6 million barrels per day?

Speaker #2: Yeah, I built a little bit on one of the first questions, right? Today, I think we're planning for the 5 million barrels per day scenario. That does not mean that there is no room, but it's way too early.

Peter van Driel: Yeah, it builds a little bit of one of the first questions, right? Today, I think we're planning for the 5 million barrels per day scenario, that does not mean that there's no room, it's way too early. It will be also not prudent to give an answer, for example, on a 6 million barrel per day scenario. That was the question. To answer these questions, that is why it takes a long time to undertake your feasibility studies, your feed studies before you make an investment decision, right? If I would answer this question, it would be pure speculation. In order to answer a question like this, because the difference between 6 million barrels per day and 5 million barrels per day is not small. I cannot answer the question. I will not answer the question. You need really an in-depth research.

Peter van Driel: Yeah, it builds a little bit of one of the first questions, right? Today, I think we're planning for the 5MMbpd scenario, that does not mean that there's no room, it's way too early. It will be also not prudent to give an answer, for example, on a 6MMbpd scenario. That was the question. To answer these questions, that is why it takes a long time to undertake your feasibility studies, your feed studies before you make an investment decision, right? If I would answer this question, it would be pure speculation. In order to answer a question like this, because the difference between 6MMbpd and 5MMbpd is not small. I cannot answer the question. I will not answer the question. You need really an in-depth research.

Speaker #2: And it would also not be prudent to give an answer. For example, on a 6 million barrel per day scenario—that was the question.

Speaker #2: Is it to answer these questions—that is why it takes a long time to undertake your feasibility studies, your FEED studies, before you make an investment decision, right?

Speaker #2: So if I were to answer this question, it would be pure speculation. In order to answer a question like this, because the difference between 6 million barrels per day and 5 million barrels per day is not small.

Speaker #2: So I cannot answer the question. I will not answer the question. And you need really an in-depth research—not research, that's not the right word, but a feasibility study. Feasibility studies are the process that we normally follow to provide you with an answer.

Peter van Driel: Now, research is not the right word, feasibility study, feed studies, the process that we normally follow to provide you with an answer.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Lawrence Lau of BOCI: What is your assumption regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic for Q3 2026 for your guided earnings?

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Lawrence Lau of BOCI. What is your assumption regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic for Q3 2026 for your guided earnings?

Speaker #2: Guided earnings are $600 to $800 million in Q3. I think if you look at the higher end of the range, we expect that traffic will be somewhat normalized but not yet at the levels we have seen in the past.

Peter van Driel: Guided earnings are $600 to 800 million in Q3. I think if you look at the higher end of the range, we expect that traffic will be somewhat normalized, not yet at the levels we have seen in the past. We're a bit more optimistic, definitely not the same levels of traffic as we have seen in last year. Right? Otherwise, our profitability will be around last year's level. By heart, it was $1.4 billion, right? Just to give you the color on that. If you get to an $800 million scenario, you may have, similar to Q2, a number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, by no means it is a normalized operation of shipping through the strait.

Speaker #2: So, you know, we're a bit more optimistic, but definitely not at the same levels of traffic as we saw last year. Right? So otherwise, our profitability will be around last year's level. By heart, it was $1.4 billion, right?

Speaker #2: Just to give you some color on that: if you get to an $800 million scenario, you may have, similar to Q2, a number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, but by no means is it a normalized operation of shipping through the strait.

Speaker #1: Our next question is from Soho Samuel of Arkham Capital. What is a normalized level of CapEx that you expect per year on the new asset base, post the completion of the $28 billion CapEx?

Operator: Our next question is from Soha Saniour of Arqaam Capital. What is a normalized level of CapEx that you expect per year on the new asset base post the completion of the $28 billion CapEx?

Speaker #2: Yeah. So, we actually try to answer that question already in the deck as well, because you're not the only one who has asked this question, right?

Peter van Driel: Yeah, Soha, we tried to answer that question already in the deck as well, because you're not the only one who has asked this question, right? The company is going through major growth phase. You see the CapEx peaking in 2027, 2028, and then with the committed projects of today, you see a reduction in the expenditure, and with that, you will also, over time, and then a little lag in that, your debt balances will reduce as well. If I look at our run and maintain CapEx, I would think if you use a range of $1.5 to $2 billion. That is slightly more than run and maintain only. We always have a whole range of smaller projects, though it can sometimes optimize the value from an asset.

Peter van Driel: Yeah, Soha, we tried to answer that question already in the deck as well, because you're not the only one who has asked this question, right? The company is going through major growth phase. You see the CapEx peaking in 2027, 2028, and then with the committed projects of today, you see a reduction in the expenditure, and with that, you will also, over time, and then a little lag in that, your debt balances will reduce as well. If I look at our run and maintain CapEx, I would think if you use a range of $1.5 to 2 billion. That is slightly more than run and maintain only. We always have a whole range of smaller projects, though it can sometimes optimize the value from an asset.

Speaker #2: Because companies are going through a major growth phase, you see the capex peaking in 2027–2028, and then with the committed projects of today, you see a reduction in the expenditure. With that, over time—and then with a little lag in that—your debt balances will reduce as well.

Speaker #2: If I look at our run and maintained capex I would think if you use a range of one and a half to two billion dollars and that is slightly more than run and maintain only we always have a whole range of smaller projects which can sometimes optimize the value from an asset it definitely not the same category of the mega projects that we have shown you on the slide like energy and the rich gas development but there is a suite of projects that we execute because it's simply optimizes the performance of either your plants or the network.

Peter van Driel: It's definitely not the same category of the mega projects that we have shown you on the slide, like Mirfa, Ruwais LNG, and the Rich Gas Development. There is a suite of projects that we execute because it simply optimizes the performance of either your plants or the network. If you would use that range going forward of $1 to $2 billion, I think you're good.

Speaker #2: So if you would use that range going forward of $500 million to $2 billion, I think you're good.

Speaker #1: A follow-up question from Soho Samuel. We saw headlines about ADNOC Gas considering a new LNG export terminal on the East Coast to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

Operator: A follow-up question from Soha Saniour. We saw headlines about ADNOC Gas considering a new LNG export terminal on the east coast to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. How is that going to play out given the Ruwais LNG project already under construction and also the existing LNG facility? How will that impact CapEx, and what is the return going to be on that project?

Speaker #1: How is that going to play out, given the Ruwais LNG project already under construction, and also the existing LNG facility? And how will that impact capex, and what is the return going to be on that project?

Speaker #2: I think it's good to clarify the headline. In the context of the question—and you saw that same question being asked in our call as well, right?

Peter van Driel: I think it is good to clarify the headline in context of the question. You saw that same question being asked in our call as well. What is ADNOC Gas doing to become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz? If I look at the ADNOC position, there are several initiatives that ADNOC is exploring to identify opportunities to become less dependent on crossing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the examples that has been quoted is a new energy export facility on the east coast, and it is, and I repeat this again, it is an idea that is being explored. It does not mean that it is subject to an FID or anything like that anytime soon. That is not how the industry works. It is, I think, very logical that people try to identify opportunities to become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaker #2: What is ADNOC Gas often doing to become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz? Now, if I look at ADNOC's position, there are several initiatives that ADNOC is exploring to identify opportunities to become less dependent on crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaker #2: One of the examples that has been quoted is a new energy export facility on the East Coast, and it is—and I repeat this again—it is an idea that is being explored. It does not mean that it is subject to an FID or anything like that anytime soon.

Speaker #2: That is not how the industry works, but I think, very literally, that people try to identify opportunities to become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the call, our CEO gave an example of how you can become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz when it is regarding sulfur, right?

Peter van Driel: Earlier in the call, our CEO gave an example of how you can become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz when it is regarding sulfur, right? It is using trains. You can think of other initiatives like pipelines. Let us be clear. Today, that is high-level thinking. That is looking at possible opportunities, and the majority of the news you have seen are initiatives undertaken by ADNOC. It does not mean that ADNOC Gas, we do not look at that. We are full of ideas, and we explore them. It is not yet a commitment to a new facility. It is not a commitment to a new pipeline. It is early days in which we investigate how we can become less dependent.

Speaker #2: It's using trains. Now, you can think of other initiatives like pipelines, but let's be clear: today, that is high-level thinking looking at possible opportunities. The majority of the news you have seen are initiatives undertaken by ADNOC. It does not mean that at ADNOC Gas we do not look at that—we are full of ideas and we explore them—but it is not yet a commitment to a new facility; it's not a commitment to a new pipeline. It is early days in which we investigate how we can become less dependent.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Mohamed Althanyan of Jadwa. Can you share an update on the income tax holiday for domestic gas? Given the recent capex guidance, is it fair to assume that the income tax holiday will be extended beyond 2027?

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Mohammed Alfenian of Jadwa. Can you share an update on income tax holiday for domestic gas? Given the recent CapEx guidance, is it fair to assume that the income tax holiday will be extended beyond 2027?

Peter van Driel: My advice is, for modeling purposes, stick to the base case, which is tax holiday comes to an end 2027. Anything that may come up is pure upside. I have got no new insights in any discussions with the Department of Finance. That is why I suggest, and that was part of also the answer I gave to Alex earlier on how you translate EBITDA into net income, apply tax after the year 2027 has concluded its final year of the tax holiday. If ever there will be positive news, you are the first one to learn from it. As of now, the base case is tax holiday comes to an end, and there are no new insights on any discussions regarding that with the Department of Finance.

Speaker #2: My advice is, for modeling purposes, stick to the base case, which is that the tax holiday comes to an end in 2027. Anything that may come up is pure upside. I've got no new insights from any discussions with the Department of Finance. That is why I suggest, and that was also part of the answer I gave to Alex earlier on how you translate EBITDA into net income—apply tax after the year 2027, which is the final year of the tax holiday. If ever there is positive news, you'll be the first ones to learn about it, but as of now, the base case is the tax holiday comes to an end, and there are no new insights regarding that topic from discussions with the Department of Finance.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Yashu Wang of CICC: What is the company's long-term assumption for the domestic gas EBITDA margin, considering the potential shift in domestic sales structure?

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Yashu Wang of CICC. What is the company's long-term assumption for domestic gas EBITDA margin, considering the potential shift in domestic sales structure?

Speaker #2: Yeah, thanks. At the IPO, the EBITDA margins stood at 33%, and I believe if I look at the last three years, the company has gone to extreme lengths to squeeze out more value from our commercial activities.

Peter van Driel: Yeah, thanks. At the IPO, the EBITDA margin stood at 33%. I believe if I look at the last three years, the company has gone to extreme lengths to squeeze out more value from our commercial activities. On earlier calls, we have shared with you insights on how we participate in tenders for electricity in the region, whereby we team up with the power sector. We constantly look at improving our contractual values. Another big achievement in 2024 was when we supplied the power sector. That power sector is going through an energy transition, which means that they need flexibility. Ultimately, you will see that solar comes into the mix, and that for us is good because it frees up gas that we can sell elsewhere. That flexibility is not for free, so it comes to margins.

Speaker #2: On earlier calls, we have shared with you insights on how we participate in tenders for electricity in the region, whereby we team up with the power sector. We constantly look at improving our contractual values. Another big achievement in 2024 was when we supplied a power sector, and that power sector is going through an energy transition, which means that they need flexibility. Ultimately, you will see that solar comes into the mix, and that, for us, is good because it frees up gas that we can sell elsewhere. But that flexibility is not for free, so it comes to margins.

Speaker #2: That was the achievement until the year 25 and even in 26 we've got achievements in that sense and we'll continue to focus to enhance the EBITDA margin I believe we can get more value out of these commercial discussions in terms of the numbers we were at the peak last year 36.8% for this year of course it's a little bit more difficult to take that number that you would extrapolate over the coming year so I would certainly if you look at the 33% margin in the year 23 compared to the 36.8 last year I would go for going forward say that that the margin should be around the 36% level.

Peter van Driel: That was the achievement until year 2025, and even in 2026, we've got achievements in that sense, and we continue to focus to enhance the EBITDA margin. I believe we can get more value out of these commercial discussions. In terms of the numbers, we were at the peak last year at 36.8%. For this year, of course, it's a little bit more difficult to take that number that you would extrapolate over the coming year. I would certainly, if you look at the 33% margin in the year 2023 compared to the 36.8% last year, I would, going forward, say that the margin should be around the 36% level. We will always look at opportunities. There is one downside for clarity as well. If you look further out, your gas resources that come your way are new, and they may come at a higher price.

Speaker #2: We will always look at opportunities. There is one downside for clarity as well—if you look further out, the gas resources that come your way are new, and they may come at a higher price. So there's a downward risk. But given our track record in enhancing our commercial skill set when it comes to renewal of contracts or new contracts, I'm a bit confident with the 36% as a benchmark for the coming years.

Peter van Driel: That's a downward risk. Given our track record in enhancing our commercial skill set when it comes down to renewal of contracts or new contracts, I'm pretty confident with the 36% as a benchmark for the coming years.

Speaker #1: Our next question is an audio question. You are now live; feel free to introduce yourself and please go ahead with your question.

Operator: Our next question is an audio question. You are now live. Feel free to introduce yourself, and please go ahead with your question.

Speaker #3: Hi, this is Akesh Tomer from SECO Investment Bank Bahrain. Thank you for the opportunity to ask the question, and congratulations on doing a great job in terms of the resilience that you have shown.

Akarsh Tomar: Hi, this is Akarsh Tomar from Seco Investment and PowerIM. Thank you for the opportunity to ask the question, and congratulations on doing a great job in terms of the resilience that you have shown. My question is in terms of processing capacities. During the IPO, the domestic gas production capacity was close to 8 billion scf per day, and the NGL processing capacity was close to 21 million tons per annum. Based on Miram, RJD123, and Umm Shaif, if I combine all this, based on my numbers, once you are done with this by 2030, you will have a domestic gas capacity of close to 10 billion scf and NGLs should be around 29 million tons per annum. Is that a correct assumption or is there something missing? I am not including Ruwais here.

Akarsh Tomar: Hi, this is Akarsh Tomar from SICO BSC, Bahrain. Thank you for the opportunity to ask the question, and congratulations on doing a great job in terms of the resilience that you have shown. My question is in terms of processing capacities. During the IPO, the domestic gas production capacity was close to 8 billion scf per day, and the NGL processing capacity was close to 21 million tons per annum. Based on MERAM, RDG 1,2,3, and Umm Shaif, if I combine all this, based on my numbers, once you are done with this by 2030, you will have a domestic gas capacity of close to 10 billion scf and NGLs should be around 29 million tons per annum. Is that a correct assumption or is there something missing? I am not including Ruwais here.

Speaker #3: So my question is: in terms of capacities during the IPO, the domestic gas production capacity was close to 8 billion scf per day, and the NGL processing capacity was close to 21 million tons per annum.

Speaker #3: So, based on Miram, RJD123, and Umshafe, if I combine all this based on my numbers, once you are done with this by 2030, you'll have a domestic gas capacity of close to 10 billion scuffs, and NGLs should be around 29 million tons per annum.

Speaker #3: So, is that a correct assumption, or is there something missing? And I'm not including Ruwais here.

Speaker #2: Okay, so the silence at this end of the line means that a lot of people were looking at spreadsheets, and we came to the conclusion that you're probably in the right direction. But I would suggest you send the question to the IR team, and we can run the calculations for you—on the back of an envelope, we think you are probably in the right direction. But let's be helpful here: IR, if you send your question to them, they can help you with the modeling effort. And I think it was a valid question, by the way, because you go and get an assessment of the capacity that is reinstated, but like I said, it's a bit detailed. We'll come back to you.

Peter van Driel: Okay. The silence at this end of the line means that a lot of people were looking at spreadsheets. We came to the conclusion that you're probably in the right direction, but I would suggest send the question to the IR team, and we can run the calculations for you. On the back of an envelope, we think you are probably in the right direction, but let's be helpful here. IR, if you send your question to them, they can help you with the modeling effort. I think it was a valid question, by the way, because you go and get an assessment of the capacity that is reinstated. Like I said, it's a bit detailed. We'll come back to you.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Ram Kamath of Barclays. Firstly, you expect EBITDA to grow circa 60% by 2030 versus 2023 at a $70 per barrel oil price assumption.

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Ram Kamath of Barclays. Firstly, you expect EBITDA to grow circa 60% by 2030 versus 2023 at a $70 per barrel oil price assumption. Could you provide some indication of EBITDA sensitivity to changes in oil prices? Secondly, regarding the Q2 2026 results, could you elaborate on the strength in domestic gas EBITDA? Was the margin expansion primarily driven by a more favorable sales mix, or were there specific operational, commercial, and cost initiatives that contributed to the improvement?

Speaker #1: Could you provide some indication of EBITDA sensitivity to changes in oil prices? And secondly, regarding the second quarter 2026 results, could you elaborate on the strength in domestic gas EBITDA—was the margin expansion primarily driven by a more favorable sales mix, or were there specific operational, commercial, and cost initiatives that contributed to the improvement?

Speaker #2: Yeah, thanks. If I look at the sensitivity to Brent, we have always given shareholders and analysts a rule of thumb, and that says that for every $10, your net income is impacted by $300 million. We recently looked at one of the larger IOC companies, and it was interesting to see that their rule of thumb has a ten times bigger impact than ours—$10 at $300 million.

Peter van Driel: Thanks. If I look at the sensitivity to Brent, we always have given to shareholders and analysts a rule of thumb, for every $10, your net income is impacted by $300 million. We recently looked at one of the larger IOC companies, and it was interesting to see that their rule of thumb has a 10 times bigger impact than our $10 at $300 million. Why is that? I explained earlier that our business model has an embedded hedge in it, where when oil prices come down, we pay less for the feedstock because the profit share payment goes down. I would use as a rule of thumb, $10 is $300 million of net income per year. That works under normal circumstances, right?

Speaker #2: Now, why is that? I explained earlier that our business model has an embedded hedge in it, where when oil prices come down, we pay less for the feedstock because the profit share payment goes down. So, I would use as a rule of thumb: $10 is $300 million of net income per year, and that works under normal circumstances, right? I think if anybody would apply it to the year 2026, with all the disruptions in the region, it is not going to be so helpful.

Peter van Driel: I think if anybody would apply it to the year 2026 with all the disruptions in the region, it is not going to be so helpful. The other thing with the rule of thumb, it works really well between the $60 and $80 levels. The higher or the lower you go, the less accurate it becomes. For now, a $10 change is a $300 million change of net income, I think is something that is workable. The margin expansion, that's the second part of the question, right? The domestic gas. I think what you see in this market, it is of course due to the sales were impacted because some of our customers were impacted. The power sector remains extremely profitable for us. The volumes are quite robust.

Speaker #2: The other thing with the rule of thumb is works really well between the 60 and $80 levels the higher or the lower you go the less equity becomes but for now $10 change is 300 million change of net income I think is something that is workable.

Speaker #2: So the margin expansion that's the second part of the question right so the domestic gas I think what you see in this market it's it is of course in Q2 the sales were impacted because some of our customers were impacted but the power sector remains extremely profitable for us the volumes are quite robust and and I mentioned this before I looked at at the month July and and the resilience of of that market is is is much better than I ever expected to be honest right so that underpins also why we foresee a higher rate of profitability in Q3 compared to Q2 because the difference is not how many vessels pass the Strait of Hormuz it is the strength of the domestic market that drives the higher output.

Peter van Driel: I mentioned this before, I looked at the month of July and the resilience of that market is much better than I ever expected, to be honest. That underpins also why we foresee a higher rate of profitability in Q3 compared to Q2. Because the difference is not how many vessels pass straight at foremost, it is the strength of the domestic market that drives the higher outlook.

Speaker #1: Our next question is a text question from Ahmed Kamal of Azimut. The updated 2026 guidance is implying lower unit margin for domestic gas sales during the second half of 2026 versus the first half of 2026.

Operator: Our next question is a text question from Ahmed Kamal of Azimut. The updated 2026 guidance is implying lower unit margin for domestic gas sales during the H2 of 2026 versus the H1 of 2026. Do you have any elaborations as to why?

Speaker #1: Do you have any elaborations as to why?

Speaker #2: The big uncertainty we always deal with and every time when we give an outlook are in particular the non-recurring revenues specifically gas to electrons gas to electrons again that is of course something where it is a win-win for our gas and the power sector customers that we have we monetize additional gas that we have available for sale and the power sector then increases the utilization of the power plants which helps their performance however there is uncertainty whether you win or lose a tender for electricity in the region that's one two you should I think if you look at the individual quarters look outside your window and see how much sunshine there is traditionally I think simple because of the warm weather in the third quarter that is logically the best quarter for our gas given the huge demand demand from the power sector Q4 Q1 are are are softer compared to Q2 and Q3 we use the opportunity in those quarters for example to do our shutdowns to optimize that and not to disrupt your revenues and your sales when demand is high so if if if in your question you compared first half with second half I look much more Q4 Q1 lower versus Q2 and Q3 higher due to decisionality mainly driven by the need for power and cooling in this time of year and that is of course apart from all all the price effect and and and these sort of things but that I think is something to note and don't forget we spoke before about the power sector right they need flexibility it means they have a baseline price and when they consume more gas they go to a higher pricing level and ultimately depending on how much demand they have above the baseline they pay a substantial premium for the gas price right so peaks during the day because of high temperature results in higher margins because you simply hit a higher price tier

Peter van Driel: The big uncertainty we always deal with, every time when we give an outlook, are in particular the non-recurring revenues, specifically gas to electrons. Gas to electrons, again, that is, of course, something where it is a win-win for ADNOC Gas and the power sector customers that we have. We monetize additional gas that we have available for sale, and the power sector then increases the utilization of their power plants, which helps their performance. However, there is uncertainty whether you win or lose a tender for electricity in the region. That's one. Two, I think if you look at the individual quarters, look outside your window and see how much sunshine there is. Traditionally, I think simple because of the warm weather in Q1, that is logically the best quarter for ADNOC Gas, given the huge demand from the power sector.

Peter van Driel: Q4 and Q1 are softer compared to Q2 and Q3. We use the opportunity in those quarters, for example, to do our shutdowns, to optimize that, not to disrupt your revenues and your sales when demand is high. In your question, you compared H1 with H2. I look much more Q4 and Q1, lower, versus Q2 and Q3, higher due to the seasonality, mainly driven by the need for power and cooling in this time of year. That is, of course, apart from all the price effects and these sort of things. That, I think, is something to note. Don't forget, we spoke before about the power sector. They need flexibility. It means they have a base load price, and when they consume more gas, they go to a higher pricing level.

Peter van Driel: Ultimately, depending on how much demand they have above the base load, they pay a substantial premium for the gas price. Peaks during the day, because of high temperature, result in higher margins because you simply hit a higher price tier.

Speaker #1: Thank you. It appears as though there are no further questions in the queue, so I'll now hand back to Richard to close the meeting.

Operator: Thank you. It appears as though there are no further questions in the queue, I'll now hand back to Richard to close the meeting.

Speaker #2: Thank you very much for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, the IR team is available. You should have our contact details and the team email address as well.

Richard Griffith: Thank you very much for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, the IR team are available. You should have our contact details and team email address as well. Thank you very much for your questions, and we look forward to seeing you again in November.

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Q2 2026 ADNOC Gas PLC Earnings Call

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