Q2 2026 Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Prince Colin Live Webcast, to present and discuss the second quarter 2026 financial results, at this time I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gökhan Dizemen, CFO, and Ms. Gülşen Ayaz, Investor Relations and Enterprise Risk Executive Director.
Speaker #1: Ms. Ayaz, you may now proceed.
Speaker #2: Hello everyone, good evening from Tupras Q1, Q3, in Istanbul, and welcome to our teleconference. Thank you for being with us today. I'm Gülşen Ayaz, as some of you already know, I have recently joined Tupras Q1's Investor Relations and Enterprise Risk Executive Director.
Speaker #2: I'm here with Gökhan Dizemen, our CFO, and my colleagues from Tupras IR and Financial Reporting. Over the next hour or so, we will review the second quarter industry backdrop and discuss our operational and financial performance, followed by a Q&A session.
Speaker #2: Before we'll start, I'll kindly draw your attention to our cautionary statement on page 2. And for further details, beyond the scope of today's presentation, please refer to the Financial Report and material disclosures available on our website.
Speaker #2: Now, let's begin with an overview of the key developments in the global oil market and the Turkish microenvironment, which, together with the next slide, should provide useful context for understanding the sector dynamics as well as our performance in the reporting period.
Speaker #2: Brent crude prices remain highly volatile throughout the quarter, primarily driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Following a sharp spike in April, prices eased on expectations of de-escalation between U.S.
Speaker #2: and Iran, coupled with weaker demand from China, before moving higher again as geopolitical tensions resurfaced toward the end of the quarter. Despite the volatility in Brent, though, our discipline in monetary management and hedging strategy helped mitigate the impact on our financial performance.
Speaker #2: While global oil demand moderated in the second quarter, the decline in supply was significantly steeper, keeping the product-market fundamentally tight. Supply was further constrained by reduced refinery availability in the Middle East amid the regional conflict, alongside ongoing disruption in Russian refining, where roughly one-third of the capacity remained affected by drone attacks.
Speaker #2: Consequently, tightening product balances outweighed the decline in demand, providing sustained support for cracked margins. At home, prudent and disciplined monetary stance has been maintained.
Speaker #2: The central bank revised its year-end inflation forecast to 26% from 16%, while keeping the policy rate unchanged at 37% to preserve the positive real interest rate environment and ensure macroeconomic stability.
Speaker #2: Overall fuel demand in Turkey remains low, with resilience over the first 5 months of 2026. While diesel demand softened modestly, continued strength in gasoline and jet fuel demand more than offset this shortfall.
Speaker #2: Diesel demand was weaker year-on-year in May, as expectations of lower prices stemming from a potential U.S.-Iran deal encouraged buyers to postpone their purchases. Moving on to the refining environment, global refinery capacity utilization rates declined sharply during the second quarter, falling below the lower end of the 5-year range.
Speaker #2: The downturn was concentrated in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and CIS regions, where geopolitical tensions, refinery outages, and crude availability constraints disrupted operations. In contrast, refiners in Europe and North America modestly increased utilization rates, partially offsetting the loss of supply and preventing even higher cracked margins.
Speaker #2: Tight product-market conditions weighed on European inventory levels, more visibly in the second quarter. With Europe sourcing around 40% of its jet fuel and 10% of its diesel from the Middle East, disruptions to trade flows quickly translated into lower inventory levels and heightened supply concerns.
Speaker #2: Consequently, market focus has effectively shifted from crude availability to refined product availability. To offset lower jet fuel and diesel inflows from the Middle East, Europe increased imports from the U.S., while European refiners shifted their production slate toward mid-distance.
Speaker #2: Nevertheless, mid-distance inventories recovered only modestly and remained below the 5-year average throughout the quarter. Meanwhile, with refiners prioritizing mid-distance deals ahead of the summer season, gasoline inventories continued to decline as demand accelerated with seasonality.
Speaker #2: As a result, cracked margins significantly strengthened due to low utilization rates and declining inventories. Lower refinery utilization across key regions led to scarcity in refined products throughout the quarter, limiting Europe's ability to import.
Speaker #2: In this environment, mid-distance cracked margins averaged around $50.50 per barrel during the second quarter, remaining reliable historical levels. Product-market tightened even further in July, following Russia's continued refinery disruptions and diesel export restrictions, pushing mid-distance cracks to $70.70 per barrel.
Speaker #2: For gasoline, after a seasonally weaker first quarter, margins recovered sharply in the second quarter and further increased to $44 per barrel in July, against surpassing the last 5 years' average.
Speaker #2: With inventories still constrained and peak season demand to come, we believe market fundamentals remain supportive of margins. Coming to the cracked margins by product over the second quarter, diesel cracked margins averaged $49 per barrel, significantly higher than the prior year, and below the 5-year average, supported primarily by refinery disruptions, constrained product balances, and limited trade flows across key markets.
Speaker #2: Jet fuel cracks averaged $52 per barrel in a pressured market, again remaining below the 5-year range. Gasoline cracks averaged $24 per barrel, marking a year-on-year increase led by low inventories, seasonally high demand, and reduced gasoline options as refiners prioritized mid-distance deals as we discussed.
Speaker #2: Finally, HSFO cracks averaged around -$21 per barrel in the second quarter, down $15 per barrel compared to last year. Geopolitical disruptions hindered global shipping routes and reduced bunker demand for most of the quarter, resulting in notably weaker margins.
Speaker #2: That said, we have seen HSFO cracks turn less negative around the short period of opening of Hermes. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hermes significantly affected heavy crude differentials throughout the second quarter.
Speaker #2: Supply disruption concerns, which began to build in March, pushed heavy crude prices to their peak in May. Following the ceasefire, with improving diplomatic climate in late June and the partial resumption of flows through Hermes, premiums gradually normalized through July.
Speaker #2: Elevated crude exports from Russia and softer demand from China were the other factors that helped. August official selling prices, also reflected this normalization. Throughout this period, we leveraged our diversified and flexible procurement to optimize our crude slate in response to evolving market conditions.
Speaker #2: While differentials normalized since May-June, renewed geopolitical tensions in July indicate that September OSPs could move higher. Now, moving on to Tupras highlights for the second quarter.
Speaker #2: An optimized product mix, thanks to our refining flexibilities, carried our wide product yield to 83%, the highest second quarter level since 2017, further strengthening value extraction during the quarter.
Speaker #2: We achieved a 96% capacity utilization rate in the reporting period, underscoring the resilience and reliability of our operations. At a time when many refineries around the world experienced lower utilization rates due to operational disruptions, we sustained high throughput levels, enabling us to fully capture seasonal demand and, most importantly, meet Turkey's fuel needs without interruption.
Speaker #2: Finally, strong net refining margins, together with disciplined execution and cash management, further strengthened our financial position. We generated $1.6 billion EBITDA in the first half, up $120% year-on-year.
Speaker #2: $2.3 billion free cash flow in the first half, not only covers the second dividend payment and the remaining CAPEX for the year, but also presents a robust outlook on financial strength and future shareholder return.
Speaker #2: Maintaining a strong cash position provides us with further flexibility and navigates market volatility and sees emerging opportunities. On the refining side, our production was 6.9 million tons in the second quarter, parallel to 2024 and 2025 levels.
Speaker #2: In lack of any major refinery maintenance, we operated at near full capacity to capture strong demand conditions. Crude distillation utilization reached 86%, while the utilization rate for processing matter feedstocks stood at 9%.
Speaker #2: On the sales front, domestic and international volumes were $6.1 and $1.7 million tons, respectively, summing up to $7.9 million tons in total, up 4% year-on-year.
Speaker #2: Domestic sales grew 5%, supported by strong diesel and gasoline volumes, up 9% and 7%, respectively. Diesel sales outperformed the broader market trend, driven by our product slate optimization.
Speaker #2: Now, let's quickly look into the electricity operations. As you know, in this slide, we summarized the electricity production and sales activities of Entec and Tuprash together.
Speaker #2: With the addition of 16 megawatt new capacity in Kırıkkale SPP, our total zero-carbon electricity generation capacity increased to 435 megawatts by the end of the quarter.
Speaker #2: In Q2, 69% of electricity generation in our facilities was from hydro, 18% from wind, and the rest from CCGT and solar. Total zero-carbon electricity from production stood at 389 gigawatt-hours, of which around 10% was sold under the feed-in tariff, while the remainder was sold to the spot market.
Speaker #2: Despite higher electricity production year-on-year, EBITDA declined due to a softer pricing environment, but we expect a progressive EBITDA contribution from our electricity generation business in the second half, as pricing conditions improve.
Speaker #2: Well, this concludes my remarks. I will now hand over to our CFO, who will take you through our financial performance and revised full-year outlook.
Speaker #1: Thank you, Gülsen. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. The second quarter benefited from a supportive refining environment. We learned to lose optimization initiatives and strong cash generation.
Speaker #1: Despite ongoing geopolitical volatility, we successfully leveraged our operational flexibility and diversified crude slate to capture favorable market conditions. We delivered another quarter of robust financial performance while further strengthening our balance sheet.
Speaker #1: All figures on this slide are presented under IAS 29 Inflation Accounting, with prior-year figures restated for comparability. Net sales increased by 60% year-on-year on the back of stronger crack margins and higher sales volume.
Speaker #1: The cost of goods sold benefited from our well-diversified crude slate underpinned by strong procurement expertise, operational flexibility, and broad market access. Throughout the quarter, we leveraged our diversified sourcing capabilities to navigate changing market conditions and enhance feedstock economics.
Speaker #1: Supported by stronger margins, a 96% capacity utilization rate and a record-high second-quarter wide product yield, operating profit increased nearly fourfold year-on-year to $47 billion Turkish lira.
Speaker #1: Below the operating line, financial income improved year-on-year, primarily driven by higher net interest income on our cash balance. Profit before tax, more than tripled year-on-year, and reached to $50 billion Turkish lira, driven largely by very strong operational performance.
Speaker #1: The effective tax rate declined compared to the first quarter, following a change in corporate tax legislation. Accordingly, the corporate tax rate applicable to income generated from manufacturing activities by companies holding an industrial registration certificate and actively engaged in manufacturing has been reduced from 25% to 11.5%, effective January 1, 2027.
Speaker #1: While this amendment has no impact on the current tax expense, it has been reflected in the deferred tax calculations in the consolidated financial statements as of the second quarter through a one-time non-cash adjustment, which significantly reduced effective tax rate.
Speaker #1: Accordingly, net profit reached to $46 billion Turkish lira, while EBITDA increased to $55 billion Turkish lira, representing around $180% year-on-year growth. Moving on to the drivers of profit before tax performance year-on-year, the main contributor was the significant improvement in refining profitability, with stronger crack margins adding $52 billion Turkish lira year-on-year.
Speaker #1: Despite the pressure from higher crude oil prices, freight, and related costs, a proactively managed trade flop helped contain the negative impact coming from crude differentials to $14.4 billion Turkish lira.
Speaker #1: Although brand prices declined, the overall inventory effect remained relatively limited, as the price impact was largely mitigated by foreign exchange movements and our hedging activity.
Speaker #1: Overall, despite the headwinds, our ability to leverage our core strengths and capitalize on favorable sector dynamics enabled us to deliver a more than threefold increase in profit before tax, driven entirely by operational performance.
Speaker #1: Moving on to the balance sheet items, net debt to EBITDA came in at negative $1.1 multiple as of the second quarter. Cash and cash equivalents and financial liabilities stood close to $200 billion Turkish lira, and $70 billion Turkish lira, respectively.
Speaker #1: We ended the quarter with a strong net cash position of $130 billion Turkish lira, corresponding to around $2.8 billion dollars. Working capitals stood at negative $34 billion Turkish lira, thanks to successful management of payables and receivables in volatile dynamics.
Speaker #1: A better-than-expected working capital balance beyond seasonal factors was largely driven by the supportive operating environment. We do not view this as a sustainable level and expect working capital to gradually normalize toward our long-term objective of maintaining a neutral working capital position.
Speaker #1: Consistent with our policy of maintaining a square FX position, we ended the first half at target level through disciplined FX management. The next slide provides an overview of our first half performance relative to our revised 2026 guidance.
Speaker #1: I will elaborate on the guidance revision in the following slides. The net refining margin was 21.4 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter, bringing the first half net refining margin to 15.6 dollars per barrel.
Speaker #1: Our half-year capacity utilization rate was 95.1%, in line with our guidance. Production and sales reached 13.6 million tons, and 15.3 million tons respectively. We spent close to $250 million on plant investments over the first half.
Speaker #1: Next slide is showing our refinery maintenance schedule. The schedule remains unchanged from last quarter. All activities scheduled for 2026 consist of routine periodic maintenance, execution remains on track with no major plant maintenance projects this year, supporting high-capacity utilization and underpinning our full-year production guidance.
Speaker #1: Turning to our revised 2026 guidance, we are raising our net refining margin expectation to 13 to 15 dollars per barrel from 6 to 7 dollars per barrel earlier.
Speaker #1: The wider range of guidance is set to capture the continued volatility in sector dynamics. The revised guidance is driven not only by the stronger refining environment experienced year to date, but also by our conviction that favorable market conditions will persist, alongside our ability to continue capturing value through effective execution.
Speaker #1: Global refinery outages have significantly tightened product markets, and resupply disruptions will take time to unwind. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, we expect only a gradual normalization in product markets, which should continue to underpin crack margins.
Speaker #1: On the crude side, our flexible sourcing capability has enabled us to effectively manage feedstock costs, further supporting our refining performance. Looking ahead, we anticipate a strong third quarter, supported by prevailing strength in crack margins and peak seasonal demand.
Speaker #1: At the same time, our guidance assumes a gradual normalization of product market conditions, from August onwards, while crude premiums are expected to increase from September relative to August levels.
Speaker #1: We also factor in the typical seasonal moderation in demand in the fourth quarter. Our guidance for production sales and investment capex remains unchanged. This concludes our presentation, and now we will proceed to the Q&A session.
Speaker #2: The first question is from the line of Ricardo Resende with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: Hello, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. If I may, three short questions. The first one, on the updated guidance, is that the higher margins also due to your expectations of a higher share of white products within your mix, similar to what we've seen in the second quarter?
Speaker #3: The second question, when you mentioned about the maintaining schedule, if margins remain higher for longer, would you consider pushing some of those maintenance to 2027, or you'd rather take the chance on going into maintenance in the low season?
Speaker #3: And then the third question is on your crude strategy. If you could just comment a little bit on the different crudes that you bought during the second quarter and if you've seen any relevant changes compared to your historical crude intake.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you, Ricardo, for the questions. Let me start with our net refining margins guidance. As you followed through the presentation, we delivered a very strong second quarter's supported by a favorable refining environment and crack margins.
Speaker #1: That remained significantly above last year's level. First of all, looking ahead, we expect that disrupted refining capacity, especially in the Middle East and Russia, will return gradually in 2026, probably until 2027, early 2027.
Speaker #1: This should definitely continue to provide support for margins. Although we expect some normalization from this exceptionally strong level seen recently, because as you follow around 10% of the total global refining capacity is within the Gulf region and it corresponds to around 12 million barrels per day, and on the other hand, Russia also has an important impact on the refining capacity, around 7 million barrels of daily refining capacity is there, and almost one-third of this capacity was hit by the drone attacks.
Speaker #1: And compared to the beginning of the year, Russia's refinery runs declined by around 2 million barrels per day. This is a very significant amount.
Speaker #1: So all in all, we think that crack margins will continue to be strong in the third and especially fourth quarter of the year, with a normalization from the exceptionally strong levels that we see right now.
Speaker #1: As for the white product yield, we reached 83% in the first six months of the year, and we think that this will continue in the upcoming periods.
Speaker #1: So we don't expect any material change in our white product year for the remaining part of the year, as long as we continue to achieve this high capacity utilization rate.
Speaker #1: This is critical for us. On your last question regarding the crude strategy, as you know, we are running one of the most complex refineries within the Mediterranean region, and the fact that our refineries is complex gives us the flexibility to source from various suppliers, this year we procured from around 14 countries, with around 24 different grades.
Speaker #1: This is important, and we started to process new crude types a few new crude types in our refineries this year as well. On top of it, I mean, we have two coastal refineries, and this also gives us logistical advantage for crude imports as well as product exports.
Speaker #1: Last but not least is the trading office that we have. It also gives us the optionality to tap into new markets as we did in this volatile period.
Speaker #1: We procured two cargoes from the strategic petroleum reserves of the US, as well as tapped into new countries as we discussed in our last call, like Guyana, Colombia, Norway.
Speaker #1: So trying to diversify our supply base as much as we can given this volatile environment, and use this operational flexibility as a key asset for our refining performance.
Speaker #1: Regarding the maintenance schedule, as we discussed during the presentation, we don't expect any postponement or delay, and we continue to stick to our maintenance schedule that we announced at the beginning of the year.
Speaker #1: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Okay.
Speaker #2: The next question is from the line of Anna Keshmaria with UBS. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Good day. Thank you for the presentation. Congratulations on a very strong results. A couple of questions from my side. Probably first around the net refining margin for the quarter.
Speaker #4: Can you let us please provide a little bit more color around what impact from the jet fuel lack was there? And the differential, because I think previously we were discussing that the differentials were expanding, but it looks like you managed to realize a very good differential, very good price for your crude basket, and also what was the impact from the jet margin lack?
Speaker #4: Second question will be around the effective tax rate. What should we think of it going forward for this second half of the year? Because there was this one-off of the reevaluation of the deferred taxes, but what would be the reasonable assumption for the second half of the year?
Speaker #4: And final question around working capital unwind. You mentioned that it will be gradually unwinding. Do you mean it will be gradually unwinding over 2026?
Speaker #4: So we will see some working capital built in the second half, or whether it will take longer and will take into 2027 to fully unwind?
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Speaker #2: Can the management hear us?
Speaker #1: Sorry, can you hear us? Okay, I apologize. I think we were on mute, so we were just talking and just trying to respond to the queries of Anne.
Speaker #1: So starting with the first question on the jet margins, as we discussed during the first quarter conference call, there's a certain lack in our jet fuel margins due to the contractual structure of jet fuel sales that we make in Turkey.
Speaker #1: Therefore, the positive impact of the spiking jet cracks which occurred in March was marginally reflected in the first quarter, but was fully realized in the second quarter.
Speaker #1: So we have seen the spiking jet margins that was realized in March. In the second quarter, mostly. So this was beneficial from the second quarter's financial perspective.
Speaker #1: On your second question, regarding the differentials, as you follow up, the easing of the geopolitical tensions in late June has supported a more favorable crude procurement outlook for the third quarter.
Speaker #1: We have seen the peaks in May and June for the crude differentials, as you can see on the presentation. But with the easing of this geopolitical tensions and the start of the ceasefire talks, we have seen much more favorable crude procurement outlook for the third quarter.
Speaker #1: But this renewed volatility both in Hürmüz as well as in the Bab al-Bandeb Strait we think that could put some upward pressure on costs later in the period.
Speaker #1: Especially from September onwards. This is something that we expect, especially as I said, for the differentials. Because given the fact that, I mean, the volatility is still continuous especially in the Gulf as well as in the Russia and Ukraine, we think that this could put some pressure on costs later in the quarter, in the third quarter.
Speaker #1: Especially from September onwards. So all in all, we have seen the peaks in May and June the differentials started to ease from July onwards in especially July and August, but we think that there could be some pressure from September onwards as discussed.
Speaker #1: I think your last question was on the effective tax rate. The impact on the deferred tax was reflected in the second quarter results. Because of the fact that, I mean, this tax rate changed from 25% to 11.5%, declined the deferred tax liability of Tupras on the balance sheet, and this was reflected, as I said, in the second quarter results as a one-off tax income.
Speaker #1: We'll be seeing the cash impact of these tax legislation change in 2026. But as I said, this is a one-off deferred tax income and will not be having an impact on the second half results of Tupras.
Speaker #4: Thank you very much. Oh, one more.
Speaker #1: And your last question was on the working capital. Typically, our target working capital is to have a neutral working capital balance by having around 20 to 25 days of receivable, turnover, amount of inventory turnover, and 50 to 55 days of a trade payable turnover.
Speaker #1: But the fact that we procured more spot cargos with better terms in the first half of the year helped us to have negative networking capital because of the increase in our trade payable days.
Speaker #1: We think that this will gradually normalize within this year. And our target of neutral networking capital will continue. So a few days we could have an impact on the networking capital days for a couple of days, let's say, for normalization purposes.
Speaker #1: You can think of an adjustment of a couple of days to normalize our networking capital. But as I said, these levels are unusual for us because of the fact that, I mean, our spot crude purchases increased during this period with more favorable payment terms.
Speaker #1: Thank you.
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Speaker #2: The next question is from the line of Ildar. Haziev with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Yes, hello. Thank you so much. And congratulations for the duration results. Just a question on the cash flow statement. I'm seeing that there was a net 42 billion lira outflow from derivatives.
Speaker #4: Is my understanding correct that this is basically a settlement of the loss you might have in one queue and should we expect that this will reverse a bit in three queue given that you now have a positive net derivative position on the balance sheet?
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Speaker #1: In terms of the derivative position, this mainly comes from our inventory hedging activity. As a hedging inventory hedging strategy, what we try to do is we are aiming to align the pricing period of crude processed in our refineries with the pricing out period of the products sold in the market.
Speaker #1: So as a result of this hedging policy, we don't carry we carry very limited flat price exposure for our inventories which corresponds to bottom or deep inventory levels.
Speaker #1: So accordingly, inventory gain and loss stemming from the balance sheet is very much limited, as you can see in our profit before tax reconciliation.
Speaker #1: This means that any cash inflow and outflow coming from the hedging activity offsets with the inventory gains and losses stemming from the balance sheet.
Speaker #1: So that this is the cash flow impact is somewhat offset between the derivatives and the change in inventories.
Speaker #4: Thank you so much.
Speaker #1: Thank you.
Speaker #2: The next question is from the line of Khan Alagos with QNB Invest. Please go ahead. Mr. Alagos, can you speak?
Speaker #5: Can you hear me now?
Speaker #2: Yes, we can hear you. You can go ahead.
Speaker #5: OK, great. Sorry about it. Thank you. Thanks for the call. My question is about the your cash position at the dividend outlook. Your cash position is very strong and crack spread suggests strong third quarter.
Speaker #5: With healthy operating cash flow again, and given this, is there any possibility of additional dividend payment for this year on top of the dividend already announced?
Speaker #5: Because if I remember correctly, the company made additional dividend distribution in 2023 or 2024. Should we consider a similar scenario as a possibility for this year?
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you for the question. We don't have any specific practice of paying additional or special dividends in a financial year. Our dividend decisions are assessed annually, taken into account our annual financial performance, future capex plans, cash flow budget for the upcoming year, and our liquidity requirements, obviously.
Speaker #1: So at this stage, it's still early to comment on a potential dividend based on solely half-year results. But as you also pointed out, the outlook is obviously supportive because of the strong earnings momentum we are seeing right now.
Speaker #1: We also have a publicly disclosed dividend policy whereby we target to distribute around 80% of our distributable profit calculated in accordance with the capital markets board requirements.
Speaker #1: We remain committed to this policy as well. And any dividend proposal is made by the board of directors. For the relevant financial year and obviously remains subject to the approval of the general assembly.
Speaker #1: What we try to achieve is that, I mean, after distributing dividends, we always want to make sure that our balance sheet is healthy and our liquidity position is intact.
Speaker #1: So as I said, I mean, there's no practice of paying additional dividends or special dividends in a financial year. Thank you.
Speaker #5: OK, thank you. Thank you very much.
Speaker #2: The next question is from the line of Sasha and Lenka with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Speaker #6: Yes, thank you very much for the presentation and the opportunity to ask questions. I just have one question with regards to the refining macro outlook.
Speaker #6: I think you did mention that the Gulf region is about 10% of global refining capacity. Just wanted your views on if things normalize and the strait of Hormuz reopens.
Speaker #6: What percentage of that capacity in your view would return? The reason I ask is when we saw the MOU signed in mid-June, and things started normalizing, you did see a pretty sharp correction in refining margins.
Speaker #6: Generally speaking, and obviously given all of the volatility in July, we did go up. So just wanted your views there. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you for the question. First of all, the exceptionally high margins we saw in March were largely driven by a temporary supply shock and the degree of market panic, as you might remember.
Speaker #1: And in the second quarter, European refiners shifted yields toward middle this last. To compensate the imports coming from the Middle East, especially Europe is dependent on middle this last products to the Gulf region, Middle East, and supply.
Speaker #1: And this had led some moderation from recent peaks in middle this last cracks. But the margins still continue to remain valuable. Their five-year average levels.
Speaker #1: At the same time, because the European refiners shifted their production to middle this last, the gasoline balances started to tighten. And the fact that the peak season, the driving season kicked in, we have seen an increase in gasoline margins as well.
Speaker #1: So all in all, both middle this last margins, as well as gasoline margins, increased in the second quarter of the year. And supported the overall refining margin environment.
Speaker #1: More recently, Russia imposed an export ban for both middle this last and gasoline products. And this also resulted in tightened balances within the Europe, including Türkiye.
Speaker #1: And again, supported the refining margin environment. On top of it, as discussed during the presentation, around 10% of the refining capacity is within the Gulf.
Speaker #1: And we know that approximately half of this was damaged as a kind of an infrastructure damage during the war. And Russia also has a significant refining capacity of around 7 million barrels per day.
Speaker #1: And again, because of the Ukrainian drone attacks, Russian refinery outages are quite high compared to the beginning of the year. The refining capacity in Russia declined by around 2 million barrels per day.
Speaker #1: And this is also putting pressure on the product balances within the Europe and MED. And we think that the recovery of those damages will take time.
Speaker #1: And because of this, I mean, we will be seeing still high crack margin environment in 2026. This is creating obviously a beneficial environment for all refiners operating in Europe as well as in the US.
Speaker #1: But these are the key assumptions that are relevant for our net refining margin. Anything that you would like to add.
Speaker #2: Let me add one thing there. I mean, what we've seen recently is an exceptional level in crack margins in July. Obviously, I mean, those seem to be unsustainable.
Speaker #2: So we do not expect those levels to be within our numbers in the remainder of the year. But even at the times when the news flow was a little bit more optimistic or positive and permits were open, we've seen crack margins very strong within the second quarter.
Speaker #2: So what we are assuming is, yes, I mean, some gradual normalization because of the reasons Gökhan was explaining. But still very strong crack margins in the third quarter if not full to full year.
Speaker #2: And we would not even rule out a case scenario where the crack margins strong crack margins run into early 2027.
Speaker #5: Yeah.
Speaker #6: Thank you. That's very clear. Thank you.
Speaker #2: We have a follow-up question from Ildar. Gaziev with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Thank you again. I wanted to ask about your fleet of tankers. You've been building that fleet for quite some time. And I think I've seen a news about another order for four more tankers recently.
Speaker #4: Can you tell us what's the target there in the midterm? What kind of fleet size do you have in mind? And is the fact that you have such a fleet, is that the reason why your freight costs have not really increased at all if I look at your financials?
Speaker #4: And also, if you could comment on how much of your needs your own fleet covers at the moment and actually at what point the delivery takes place.
Speaker #4: Is it like four Turkey coast, or this is like four somewhere in other locations where you actually purchasing liquid oil? How should we look at the freight?
Speaker #4: Is it really respected in your P&L statement? Thank you.
Speaker #1: Let me start. Thank you for the question. As you follow from our announcements, we placed four ships we placed order for four Suezmark ships a couple of days ago and signed the construction contract with two Korean shipbuilders.
Speaker #1: As you know, we have been active in this business for an extended period. And the primary of objective of this investment is to expand our fleet.
Speaker #1: And strengthen the security and flexibility of our crude oil supply chain. That's a very critical for us because we are short in fleet. We need to import crude to the country in order to run our refineries.
Speaker #1: We are short in transportation and time charter. This is one of the costs that we incur in order to bring products to the country.
Speaker #1: We think that investing in vessels will support two precious core refining operations. By increasing our transportation flexibility and enhancing supply security as well as operational efficiency.
Speaker #1: These are the reasons that we think would be key for investing in those four ships. What I can tell you in addition to this is that, I mean, with these four Suezmark ships, our total shipping capacity is expected to increase by around 75% to around 1.5 million deadweight tons.
Speaker #1: And we will be spending around 400 million dollars for the procurement of those ships. As mentioned, we just placed the orders right now. And the delivery will take place in 2029.
Speaker #1: Hence, the payments will be made in installments. So there will be not any one-off cash flow impact on our balance sheet in 2026 or 2027.
Speaker #1: So we will be making the payments in installments until 2029. So the capex impact will also be limited for this year. Anything that you would like to add, Hussein, on the shipping side?
Speaker #2: No. I think it's all complete. I mean, I think part of the question was how much self-sufficient we are. I mean, I wouldn't look at it like that.
Speaker #2: But I mean, I can tell you that the amount of, I mean, our cargo is going through our subsidiary Gitash is, I mean, around low peaks.
Speaker #2: But that doesn't mean that the entire capacity is allocated to us. So that would not necessarily answer the question. But I would more focus on the capacity increase that Gökhan was mentioning, which is about 75%.
Speaker #1: Exactly. This is crucial because as I mentioned, we are short in the fleet. We need to bring product to the country to process our in our refineries.
Speaker #1: And the more we buy from on an FOB basis, directly from the store, I mean, the more we benefits by capturing more value within the supply chain.
Speaker #1: Because otherwise, if there are some arbitrage opportunities between regions, in most of the time, the ship owners will be the ones who feel this gap and capture more from the arbitrage opportunities.
Speaker #1: By owning those ships, we'll be in a position to capture more value within the supply chain by going directly to the source and making our crude procurements as much FOB basis as possible.
Speaker #4: Thank you so much for the explanation. Can I just ask whether for the cargoes which you have to for which you can't use your own fleets, for those cargoes, the cost of freight will be a part of the cost of crude purchases, right?
Speaker #1: Right.
Speaker #4: Sure. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you once again for joining us today. Before we conclude, I'd like to share a few closing remarks. The second quarter unfolded against a dynamic geopolitical backdrop and continued volatility across global energy markets.
Speaker #1: As the quarter progressed, the market narrative shifted from crude availability towards refined product availability. Lower global refining utilization, together with ongoing refinery outages, resulted in tighter product balances and created a supportive environment for refining margins.
Speaker #1: That extended well beyond the initial geopolitical disruptions. Against this backdrop, we delivered robust operational and financial performance. High utilization across our refining system discipline execution and operational flexibility once again enabled us to capture favorable market conditions.
Speaker #1: The first half of the year has validated the strength of our execution capabilities. Our decision to raise full-year net refining margin guidance to 13 to 15 dollars per barrel reflects not only improved market conditions, but also our confidence in our ability to consistently turn market opportunities into sustainable financial performance.
Speaker #1: Although our guidance incorporates a gradual normalization in product markets during the second half, we believe our integrated business model operational excellence and financial discipline position us well to successfully navigate through evolving market dynamics and deliver long-term value for our shareholders.
