Half Year 2026 Vistry Group PLC Earnings Call
Speaker #1: thanks to all those who are attending in the room, and online. Today we'll talk you through our half-year results, but also cover the conclusions of our CEO review that we've carried out through the summer.
Adam Daniels: Thanks to all those who are attending in the room and online. Today, we will talk you through our half year results, but also cover the conclusions of our CEO review that we have carried out through the summer. I am Adam Daniels. I was appointed as Chief Executive on 13 April of this year. I started my career in pure house building, then moved into contracting housing before I joined the business in 2016 when I joined Countryside, who were already doing partnerships at that time. So I have deep expertise in mixed tenure and partnerships house building. I became part of Vistry in 2022 when they acquired Countryside at that time. A little bit what we are going to talk about today. So I will have a brief introduction into what we might go through and some of the early observations I have had during my time as Chief Exec.
Adam Daniels: Thanks to all those who are attending in the room and online. Today, we will talk you through our half year results, but also cover the conclusions of our CEO review that we have carried out through the summer. I am Adam Daniels. I was appointed as Chief Executive on 13 April of this year. I started my career in pure house building, then moved into contracting housing before I joined the business in 2016 when I joined Countryside, who were already doing partnerships at that time. So I have deep expertise in mixed tenure and partnerships house building.
Speaker #1: I'm Adam Daniels. I was appointed as Chief Executive on the 13th of April of this year, I started my career in Pure House Building, then moved into contracting housing before I joined the business in 2016 when I joined Countryside, who are already doing partnerships at that time, so I've got deep expertise in mixed tenure and partnerships house building.
Speaker #1: I became part of Vistry in 2022 when they acquired Countryside at that time. A little bit of what we're going to talk about today: I'll have a brief introduction into what we might go through and some of the early observations I've had during my time as Chief Exec, we'll then go across to Tim, who'll talk about our half-year results.
Adam Daniels: I became part of Vistry in 2022 when they acquired Countryside at that time. A little bit what we are going to talk about today. So I will have a brief introduction into what we might go through and some of the early observations I have had during my time as Chief Exec.
Adam Daniels: We will then go across to Tim, who will talk about our half year results before we cover the CEO review. After that, we will look at current market conditions and outlook, and then conclusions, and clearly a Q&A. Just to open, set the scene a little bit. We started a review of the business in May, which is a detailed work stream with external support. So an internal team working alongside an external team to really look at the business in a root and branch way, building up from the quality of the sites into the way we operate and looking at what we are doing well and what we are not doing so well.
Adam Daniels: We will then go across to Tim, who will talk about our half year results before we cover the CEO review. After that, we will look at current market conditions and outlook, and then conclusions, and clearly a Q&A. Just to open, set the scene a little bit. We started a review of the business in May, which is a detailed work stream with external support. So an internal team working alongside an external team to really look at the business in a root and branch way, building up from the quality of the sites into the way we operate and looking at what we are doing well and what we are not doing so well.
Speaker #1: Before we cover the CEO review, after that we'll look at current market conditions and outlook, and then conclusions and clearly a Q&A. So, just to open, set the scene a little bit: we started a review of the business in May, which is a detailed workstream with external support, so an internal team working alongside an external team to really look at the business in a root and branch way, building up from the quality of the sites into the way we operate, and looking at what we're doing well and what we're not doing so well.
Speaker #1: We acknowledge that the execution of our model since 2023 has not all gone as we planned. But there is a very good reassurance in the work we've done that the model's worked excellently in some areas, despite the difficult market conditions we've had during that time.
Adam Daniels: But we acknowledge that the execution of our model since 2023 has not all gone as we planned, but there is very good reassurance in the work we have done that the model has worked excellently in some areas, despite the difficult market conditions we have had during that time. We have made very good progress on deleveraging the business and improving that cash generation, and we are continuing to see the outcomes of that work. And early action has been taken to resize the land bank and look at where we are reinvesting in new land to make sure we have got those suitable land positions for our mixed tenure model. We talked at July statement about H1 profit being impacted by cash actions, and we will talk about that and summarize that shortly. In very good news, the SAHP grant allocation was announced in August.
Adam Daniels: But we acknowledge that the execution of our model since 2023 has not all gone as we planned, but there is very good reassurance in the work we have done that the model has worked excellently in some areas, despite the difficult market conditions we have had during that time. We have made very good progress on deleveraging the business and improving that cash generation, and we are continuing to see the outcomes of that work. And early action has been taken to resize the land bank and look at where we are reinvesting in new land to make sure we have got those suitable land positions for our mixed tenure model.
Speaker #1: We've made very good progress on deleveraging the business, and improving that cash generation, and we're continuing to see the outcomes of that work. And there's early action that's been taken to resize the Land Bank and look at where we're reinvesting in new land to make sure we've got those suitable land positions for our mixed tenure model.
Speaker #1: We talked to a July statement about half one profit being impacted by cash actions, and we'll talk about that and summarize that shortly. In very, very good news, the SAHP grant allocation was announced in August.
Adam Daniels: We talked at July statement about H1 profit being impacted by cash actions, and we will talk about that and summarize that shortly. In very good news, the SAHP grant allocation was announced in August.
Speaker #1: That was a $9.6 billion award across the affordable housing sector, going to 33 partners, 29 of which were already worked with and are in contract with up and down the country.
Adam Daniels: That was a GBP 9.6 billion award across the affordable housing sector going to 33 partners, 29 of which we already work with and are in contract with up and down the country. We received GBP 350 million of direct grant award, the top allocation in that award, clearly showing the market's confidence in Vistry as a key deliverer of affordable housing. So really good piece of news in August. Our refinance process is due to start in October as planned, and we will be aiming for less borrowing in the medium term as we bring down the size of the balance sheet and make the business less capital intensive. In summary, we are taking the necessary action to make this business less capital intensive, more profitable and more reliable. A little bit of progress on deleveraging.
Adam Daniels: That was a GBP 9.6 billion award across the affordable housing sector going to 33 partners, 29 of which we already work with and are in contract with up and down the country. We received GBP 350 million of direct grant award, the top allocation in that award, clearly showing the market's confidence in Vistry as a key deliverer of affordable housing. So really good piece of news in August. Our refinance process is due to start in October as planned, and we will be aiming for less borrowing in the medium term as we bring down the size of the balance sheet and make the business less capital intensive. In summary, we are taking the necessary action to make this business less capital intensive, more profitable and more reliable. A little bit of progress on deleveraging.
Speaker #1: We received $350 million of direct grant award, the top allocation in that award, clearly showing the market's confidence in Vistry as a key deliverable, deliverer of affordable housing.
Speaker #1: So, really good piece of news in August. Our refinance process is due to start in October, as planned, and we'll be aiming for less borrowing in the medium term as we bring down the size of the balance sheet and make the business less capital-intensive.
Speaker #1: In summary, we are taking the necessary action to make this business less capital-intensive, more profitable, and more reliable. So, a little bit of progress on deleveraging.
Speaker #1: Just first, there's a bit of a headline: peak debt lower in FY26 than it was in FY25. So, despite a poorer market conditions, despite the continued delay of the SAHP until the end of August, you know, peak debt did not reach levels in FY26 it did in FY25.
Adam Daniels: Just first as a bit of a headline, peak debt lower in FY26 than it was in FY25. Despite poorer market conditions, despite the continued delay of the SAHP until the end of August, peak debt did not reach the levels in FY26 it did in FY25. Good reassurance. We are past our peak debt point for this year, so will not return to that peak again between now and the end of the year. In relation to overall leverage, good progress on land creditors. We reduced land creditors by another GBP 100 million since H1, and we expect to further reduce that by GBP 70 million by the year end. Paying down those land creditors, reducing that overall leverage. Overall in 2026, expect a reduction of circa GBP 300 million during this year. We started some work around reshaping the land bank.
Adam Daniels: Just first as a bit of a headline, peak debt lower in FY26 than it was in FY25. Despite poorer market conditions, despite the continued delay of the SAHP until the end of August, peak debt did not reach the levels in FY26 it did in FY25. Good reassurance. We are past our peak debt point for this year, so will not return to that peak again between now and the end of the year. In relation to overall leverage, good progress on land creditors. We reduced land creditors by another GBP 100 million since H1, and we expect to further reduce that by GBP 70 million by the year end. Paying down those land creditors, reducing that overall leverage. Overall in 2026, expect a reduction of circa GBP 300 million during this year. We started some work around reshaping the land bank.
Speaker #1: Good reassurance, and we're past our peak debt point for this year. So, won't return to that peak again between now and the end of the year.
Speaker #1: In relation to overall leverage, good progress on land creditors. So, we reduced land creditors by another $100 million since half one, and we expect to further reduce that by $70 million by the year end.
Speaker #1: So, paying down those land creditors, reducing that overall leverage. Overall, in 2026, expect a reduction of circa $300 million during this year. We've started some work around reshaping the Land Bank.
Speaker #1: We made some good progress, but how we reshape that to be more suitable to our model in the right areas, the right source of sites.
Adam Daniels: We made some good progress about how we reshape that to be more suitable to our model in the right areas, the right sorts of sites, and we reduced land buying in H2 following that CEO review to ensure that we are really focused on the schemes that work best for us. In relation to private WIP, more good progress. Unsold stock continues to fall. We talked in the July statement that we made GBP 300 million of progress in the year already, and we made a further GBP 80 million of progress since the half year. As we talked about in July, we exited our part exchange position, which brought in another GBP 20 million of cash in Q3. Good progress around private WIP. What these things have allowed us to do is really look at the quality of the deals that we are doing with our partners.
Adam Daniels: We made some good progress about how we reshape that to be more suitable to our model in the right areas, the right sorts of sites, and we reduced land buying in H2 following that CEO review to ensure that we are really focused on the schemes that work best for us. In relation to private WIP, more good progress. Unsold stock continues to fall.
Speaker #1: And we've reduced land buying in H2 following that CEO review to ensure that we're really focused on the schemes that work best for us.
Speaker #1: In relation to private whip, more good progress. So, unsold stock continues to fall. We talked in the July statement that we'd made $300 million of progress in the year already, and we've made a further $80 million of progress since the half year.
Adam Daniels: We talked in the July statement that we made GBP 300 million of progress in the year already, and we made a further GBP 80 million of progress since the half year. As we talked about in July, we exited our part exchange position, which brought in another GBP 20 million of cash in Q3. Good progress around private WIP. What these things have allowed us to do is really look at the quality of the deals that we are doing with our partners.
Speaker #1: And as we talked about in July, we've exited our part exchange position, which brought in another $20 million of cash in quarter three. So, good progress around private whip.
Speaker #1: What these things have allowed us to do is really look at the quality of the deals that we're doing with our partners. This is a business all about the quality of deals, the quality of land deals, the quality of partner deals that feed into those.
Adam Daniels: This is a business all about the quality of deals, the quality of land deals, the quality of partner deals that feed into those. It is allowed us to step away and renegotiate some of those deals to improve returns and improve the quality of the underlying deals that are being fed into the business. Because of these self-help measures that we are making very good progress with, no expectations for an equity raise, and we are very confident these self-help measures will deleverage the business as we work through the balance of 2026 and into 2027. A few of Vistry's fundamentals I wanted to cover just at the start. Firstly, Vistry is an excellent business.
Adam Daniels: This is a business all about the quality of deals, the quality of land deals, the quality of partner deals that feed into those. It is allowed us to step away and renegotiate some of those deals to improve returns and improve the quality of the underlying deals that are being fed into the business. Because of these self-help measures that we are making very good progress with, no expectations for an equity raise, and we are very confident these self-help measures will deleverage the business as we work through the balance of 2026 and into 2027. A few of Vistry's fundamentals I wanted to cover just at the start. Firstly, Vistry is an excellent business.
Speaker #1: So, it's allowed us to step away and renegotiate some of those deals to improve returns and improve the quality of the underlying deals that are being fed into the business.
Speaker #1: Because of these self-help measures that we're making very good progress with, no expectations for an equity raise, and we're very confident these self-help measures will deleverage the business as we work through the balance of 26 and into 2027.
Speaker #1: A few Vistry's fundamentals I wanted to cover just at the start. Firstly, Vistry is an excellent business. Underlying some of the challenges that we'll talk through today, we've got excellent people, excellent quality, comfortably maintaining our five-star HBS status, great feedback from our partners, and that is giving us fantastic reassurance that the business remains in very good shape.
Adam Daniels: Underlying some of the challenges that we will talk through today, we have excellent people, excellent quality, comfortably maintaining our five-star HBF status, great feedback from our partners, and that is giving us fantastic reassurance that the business remains in very good shape. We have lots of highly motivated people with deep delivery expertise in what we do. What we do is different to the rest of the market, and our people understand it and know it and operate it well. Clearly, the segments of the housing market we work in have high structural demand. There is lots of need for affordable housing, mixed tenure housing all across the country, and therefore we are in a good place to deliver in that.
Adam Daniels: Underlying some of the challenges that we will talk through today, we have excellent people, excellent quality, comfortably maintaining our five-star HBF status, great feedback from our partners, and that is giving us fantastic reassurance that the business remains in very good shape. We have lots of highly motivated people with deep delivery expertise in what we do. What we do is different to the rest of the market, and our people understand it and know it and operate it well. Clearly, the segments of the housing market we work in have high structural demand. There is lots of need for affordable housing, mixed tenure housing all across the country, and therefore we are in a good place to deliver in that.
Speaker #1: We've got lots of highly motivated people with deep delivery expertise in what we do. What we do is different to the rest of the market, and our people understand it and know it and operate it well.
Speaker #1: Clearly, the segments of the housing market we work in have high structural demand. There is lots of need for affordable housing, mixed tenure housing, all across the country, and therefore we're in a good place to deliver in that.
Speaker #1: We can prove through some of the work I'll talk you through today that when executed effectively, this model delivers those lower-front capital requirements really good flexibility between the partner demands and open market channels.
Adam Daniels: We can prove through some of the work I will talk you through today that when executed effectively, this model delivers those low upfront capital requirements, really good flexibility between the partner demands and open market channels. We have a wide customer base between all of our private customers, our housing associations, and our PRS investors that we can sell into. In summary, we are market leaders in what we do, and we generate great value for our partners. The focus now is to increase the operational control, release cash, and reduce complexity. There is an opportunity to really simplify Vistry and make it more reliable as we go forwards. A bit of a snapshot of what I will talk about later. What is the vision as we move forward?
Adam Daniels: We can prove through some of the work I will talk you through today that when executed effectively, this model delivers those low upfront capital requirements, really good flexibility between the partner demands and open market channels. We have a wide customer base between all of our private customers, our housing associations, and our PRS investors that we can sell into. In summary, we are market leaders in what we do, and we generate great value for our partners. The focus now is to increase the operational control, release cash, and reduce complexity. There is an opportunity to really simplify Vistry and make it more reliable as we go forwards. A bit of a snapshot of what I will talk about later. What is the vision as we move forward?
Speaker #1: And we've got a wide customer base between all of our private customers and housing associations, and our PRS investors that we can sell into.
Speaker #1: In summary, we are market leaders at what we do, and we generate great value for our partners. The focus now is to increase the operational control, release cash, and reduce complexity.
Speaker #1: There is an opportunity to really simplify Vistry and make it more reliable as we go forwards. So, a bit of a snapshot of what I'll talk about later.
Speaker #1: So, what is the vision as we move forward? We'll be industry leading capital light, a specialist mixed tenure house builder, focused on that balance between partner-backed demand and open market.
Adam Daniels: We will be industry leading capital light, a specialist mixed tenure house builder focused on that balance between partner-backed demand and open market. Clearly, we will prioritize cash conversion and returns over volume. The conclusion of the CEO review shows that we need to tweak the tenure mix to 60% partnerships and 40% open market, and use that tenure mix in the right areas of our geography. We want a more focused and agile platform. 12,000 units is the medium-term target of the business to realize that balance between volume and quality. We will reduce the balance sheet, targeting a much smaller owned land bank position of 36,000 homes, and we will make sure there is consistent adherence to that mixed tenure model all across the geography with an overall target of 30% plus ROCE by the medium term.
Adam Daniels: We will be industry leading capital light, a specialist mixed tenure house builder focused on that balance between partner-backed demand and open market. Clearly, we will prioritize cash conversion and returns over volume. The conclusion of the CEO review shows that we need to tweak the tenure mix to 60% partnerships and 40% open market, and use that tenure mix in the right areas of our geography. We want a more focused and agile platform. 12,000 units is the medium-term target of the business to realize that balance between volume and quality. We will reduce the balance sheet, targeting a much smaller owned land bank position of 36,000 homes, and we will make sure there is consistent adherence to that mixed tenure model all across the geography with an overall target of 30% plus ROCE by the medium term.
Speaker #1: And clearly, we'll prioritize cash conversion and returns over volume. The conclusion of the CEO review shows that we need to tweak the tenure mix to 60% partnerships and 40% open market, and use that tenure mix in the right areas of our geography.
Speaker #1: We want a more focused and agile platform, 12,000 units is the medium-term target of the business, to realize that balance between volume and quality.
Speaker #1: We'll reduce the balance sheet, targeting a much smaller owned land bank position of 36,000 homes. And we'll make sure there's consistent adherence that mixed tenure model all across the geography with an overall target of 30% plus row key by the medium term.
Speaker #1: As we reshape the land bank, really focusing our land teams on the quality of opportunity, rather than a quantity of sites bought, and tweaking the regional structure, to move from 25 to 12, really focusing around the quality of our site teams and project-led focus, something that I'll cover a little bit later on.
Adam Daniels: As we reshape the land bank, really focusing our land teams on the quality of opportunity rather than the quantity of sites bought and tweaking the regional structure to move from 25 to 12, really focusing around the quality of our site teams and project-led focus, something that I will cover a little bit later on. Hopefully, that is a little bit of a snapshot of what I will take you through the detail with later on. Before I do that, I will hand to Tim for the finance review. This is Tim's last action with us before Tim leaves the business very shortly. Just like to thank Tim for his work over the last few years and also thank him for his time with me over the last few months. I am very pleased that we have made very good progress with Tim's replacement, and we expect to announce a new CFO imminently. Thanks, Tim.
Adam Daniels: As we reshape the land bank, really focusing our land teams on the quality of opportunity rather than the quantity of sites bought and tweaking the regional structure to move from 25 to 12, really focusing around the quality of our site teams and project-led focus, something that I will cover a little bit later on. Hopefully, that is a little bit of a snapshot of what I will take you through the detail with later on. Before I do that, I will hand to Tim for the finance review. This is Tim's last action with us before Tim leaves the business very shortly. Just like to thank Tim for his work over the last few years and also thank him for his time with me over the last few months.
Speaker #1: Hopefully, that's a little bit of a snapshot of what I'll take you through the detail with later on. Before I do that, I'll hand to Tim for the finance review.
Speaker #1: This is Tim's last action with us before Tim leaves the business, very shortly. Just like to thank Tim for his work over the last few years, and also thank him for his time with me over the last few months.
Speaker #1: I'm very pleased that we've made very good progress with Tim's replacement, and we expect to announce a new CFO imminently. Thanks, Tim.
Adam Daniels: I am very pleased that we have made very good progress with Tim's replacement, and we expect to announce a new CFO imminently. Thanks, Tim.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Adam. Morning, everybody. So, we'll start. I'll talk now about the half-year position. I'll come back later for a bit of a recap on the financial implications of the strategy after Adam's taken you through the strategic changes.
Tim Lawlor: Thanks, Adam. Morning, everybody. We will start. I will talk now about the H1 position. I will come back later for a bit of a recap on the financial implications of the strategy after Adam has taken you through the strategic changes. H1, we had an extensive July trading update, and we had a conference call. I will try and avoid being too duplicative of stuff we have said before. I will try and race through the old news, if you like, on H1. In terms of the group result at the H1, back in July, we said our H1 was a GBP 30 million loss, excluding the impact of CEO review items. That is clearly adverse to last year. Two principal reasons for that. One is that we took a lot of discounting action in the H1 to clear our stock down to generate cash.
Tim Lawlor: Thanks, Adam. Morning, everybody. We will start. I will talk now about the H1 position. I will come back later for a bit of a recap on the financial implications of the strategy after Adam has taken you through the strategic changes. H1, we had an extensive July trading update, and we had a conference call.
Speaker #2: So, half-year, we had an extensive July trading update, and we had a conference call. So, I'll try and avoid being too deprecative of stuff we've said before.
Tim Lawlor: I will try and avoid being too duplicative of stuff we have said before. I will try and race through the old news, if you like, on H1. In terms of the group result at the H1, back in July, we said our H1 was a GBP 30 million loss, excluding the impact of CEO review items. That is clearly adverse to last year. Two principal reasons for that. One is that we took a lot of discounting action in the H1 to clear our stock down to generate cash.
Speaker #2: I'll try and waste through the old news, if you like, on half-year. So, in terms of the group result at the half-year, back in July, we said our first half-year was a $30 million loss excluding the impacts of CEO review items.
Speaker #2: So, that's clearly adverse to last year. Two principal reasons for that. One is that we took a lot of discounting action in the first half-year to clear our stock down, to generate cash.
Speaker #2: The impact of that discount was around $50 million of profit in the first half of the year. And the other thing we saw in the first half of the year was that partner volumes were subdued, there was a period of hiatus as partners waited for confirmation of what the new grant program was going to offer them, and so there were less deals in the first half of the year than would normally have been expected.
Tim Lawlor: The impact of that discount was around GBP 50 million of profit in the H1 of the year. The other thing we saw in the H1 of the year was that partner volumes were subdued. There was a period of hiatus as partners waited for confirmation of what the new grant program was going to offer them, so there were less deals in the H1 of the year than would normally have been expected. The other thing we reported at half year was that net debt was higher than last year, again impacted by the lower volume of partner deals. That is the old news. The new news for the half year is that we have now completed the CEO review process.
Tim Lawlor: The impact of that discount was around GBP 50 million of profit in the H1 of the year. The other thing we saw in the H1 of the year was that partner volumes were subdued. There was a period of hiatus as partners waited for confirmation of what the new grant program was going to offer them, so there were less deals in the H1 of the year than would normally have been expected. The other thing we reported at half year was that net debt was higher than last year, again impacted by the lower volume of partner deals. That is the old news. The new news for the half year is that we have now completed the CEO review process.
Speaker #2: The other thing we reported at half-year was that net debt was higher than last year, again impacted by the lower volume of partner deals.
Speaker #2: So, if that's the old news, the new news for the half-year is that we've now completed the CEO review process. We're still in the process of working through the details of the exact financial quantification of all of those items, and also working out whether there are exceptional or otherwise and also whether they should be booked in H1 or H2.
Tim Lawlor: We are still in the process of working through the details of the exact financial quantification of all of those items, also working out whether they are exceptional or otherwise, and also whether they should be booked in H1 or H2. That last bit, the H1/H2 piece, is complicated by the fact that the CEO review started back in April, effectively when Adam took the reins. So what we have done is identified GBP 50 million of charges, and I will go through the charges in a bit more detail later, but GBP 50 million of charges that should be booked in H1. So this was because the actions were fairly well progressed. They were the lower hanging fruits, if you like, of the CEO review change. So these were things like accelerating closure of sites that we knew we were not going to proceed with on the basis of the new strategy.
Tim Lawlor: We are still in the process of working through the details of the exact financial quantification of all of those items, also working out whether they are exceptional or otherwise, and also whether they should be booked in H1 or H2. That last bit, the H1/H2 piece, is complicated by the fact that the CEO review started back in April, effectively when Adam took the reins. So what we have done is identified GBP 50 million of charges, and I will go through the charges in a bit more detail later, but GBP 50 million of charges that should be booked in H1. So this was because the actions were fairly well progressed.
Speaker #2: Now, that last bit, the H1, H2 piece, is complicated by the fact that the CEO review started back in April, effectively, when Adam took the reins.
Speaker #2: So, what we've done is identified a $50 million of charges, and I'll go through the charges in a bit more detail later, but $50 million of charges that should be booked in H1.
Speaker #2: So, this was because the actions were fairly well progressed, they were the lower hanging fruit, if you like, of the CEO review change. So, these were things like accelerating closure of sites that we knew that we weren't going to proceed with on the basis of the new strategy, they were things like the part exchange decision to take right down some part exchange in order to clear part exchange.
Tim Lawlor: They were the lower hanging fruits, if you like, of the CEO review change. So these were things like accelerating closure of sites that we knew we were not going to proceed with on the basis of the new strategy.
Tim Lawlor: They were things like the Part Exchange decision to take writedowns on Part Exchange in order to clear Part Exchange. So that is the 50 that reconciles the 30 we talked about before, and the 83.3 that you can see on the slide for profit. The other two things that have been booked in the half year that we have not talked about before are exceptional items. One around goodwill impairment, which I will tell you about later, and also an additional charge on building safety. Right. So back to H1 trading. As we have disclosed before, the units were down 8% year on year and revenue down by a similar amount. That was largely down to the partner volumes coming down. The open market volumes were actually up because of the discounting action. But overall, net we were down 8%. In terms of pricing, despite that discounting action, actually pricing did not drop.
Tim Lawlor: They were things like the Part Exchange decision to take writedowns on Part Exchange in order to clear Part Exchange. So that is the 50 that reconciles the 30 we talked about before, and the 83.3 that you can see on the slide for profit. The other two things that have been booked in the half year that we have not talked about before are exceptional items.
Speaker #2: So, that's the $50, the reconciles, the $30 that we talked about before, and the $83.3 that you can see on the slide for profit.
Speaker #2: The other two things that have been booked in the half-year that we haven't talked about before are exceptional items. One around goodwill impairment, which I'll tell you about later, and also an additional charge on building safety.
Tim Lawlor: One around goodwill impairment, which I will tell you about later, and also an additional charge on building safety. Right. So back to H1 trading. As we have disclosed before, the units were down 8% year on year and revenue down by a similar amount. That was largely down to the partner volumes coming down. The open market volumes were actually up because of the discounting action. But overall, net we were down 8%. In terms of pricing, despite that discounting action, actually pricing did not drop.
Speaker #2: Right, so back to H1 trading. So, as we've disclosed before, the units were down 8% year on year, and revenue down by a similar amount.
Speaker #2: That was largely with down to the partner volumes coming down. The open market volumes were actually up because of the discounting action, but overall net-net we were down 8%.
Speaker #2: In terms of pricing, despite that discounting action, actually pricing didn't drop. The average sales price went up by about 3%. And the reason for that is because a lot of the discounting action that we took was to more expensive product.
Tim Lawlor: The average sales price went up by about 3%. The reason for that is because a lot of the discounting action that we took was to more expensive products. So the stuff that tend to be slower moving, whether four and five bedroom houses and probably more in the south than the north, and hence the actual ASP of our sales went up despite the fact that we were doing this discounting. A couple of other things to call out on here. One is that land sales dropped in the H1 of the year. It is something that we were evaluating. I think one of the things we have been doing over the course of the summer is pausing some activity while we identify the criteria that is appropriate for the new strategy. So I will come back to some of the impacts of that later.
Tim Lawlor: The average sales price went up by about 3%. The reason for that is because a lot of the discounting action that we took was to more expensive products. So the stuff that tend to be slower moving, whether four and five bedroom houses and probably more in the south than the north, and hence the actual ASP of our sales went up despite the fact that we were doing this discounting.
Speaker #2: So, the stuff that would tend to be slower moving were the 4 and 5-bedroom houses and probably more in the south than the north, and hence the actual ASP of our sales went up despite the fact that we were doing this discounting.
Speaker #2: A couple of other things to call out on here. One is that land sales dropped in the first half of the year. It's something that we were evaluating I think one of the things we've been doing over the course of the summer is pausing some activity while we identify the criteria that's appropriate for the new strategy.
Tim Lawlor: A couple of other things to call out on here. One is that land sales dropped in the H1 of the year. It is something that we were evaluating. I think one of the things we have been doing over the course of the summer is pausing some activity while we identify the criteria that is appropriate for the new strategy. So I will come back to some of the impacts of that later.
Speaker #2: So, I'll come back to some of the impacts of that later. So, there were low land sales in the first half of the year.
Tim Lawlor: There were lower land sales in the H1 of the year. We expect further land sales in the H2. Land sales will be higher and not as high as the full year last year, but it will be higher in the H2 of the year. Then finally, gross margin. Obviously, the gross margin is adverse this year. If you add back the GBP 50 million of cash generating actions and you add back the GBP 50 million of CEO actions, our gross margin is a little above 10%. Working our way down the rest of the P&L. Overheads were down, this is before the impact of the voluntary exit scheme and the further restructuring that Adam will describe later. Overheads were down because the headcount was lower from previous action.
Tim Lawlor: There were lower land sales in the H1 of the year. We expect further land sales in the H2. Land sales will be higher and not as high as the full year last year, but it will be higher in the H2 of the year. Then finally, gross margin. Obviously, the gross margin is adverse this year. If you add back the GBP 50 million of cash generating actions and you add back the GBP 50 million of CEO actions, our gross margin is a little above 10%. Working our way down the rest of the P&L. Overheads were down, this is before the impact of the voluntary exit scheme and the further restructuring that Adam will describe later. Overheads were down because the headcount was lower from previous action.
Speaker #2: We expect further land sales in the second half, so land sales will be higher, and not as high as the full year last year, but it will be higher in the second half of the year.
Speaker #2: And then finally, gross margin sales, the gross margin is adverse this year. If you add back the $50 million of cash generating actions, and you add back the $50 million of CEO actions, our gross margin is a little above 10%.
Speaker #2: So, working our way down the rest of the P&L, overheads were down, so this is before the impact of the voluntary exit scheme and the further restructuring that Adam will describe later.
Speaker #2: Overheads were down because the headcount was lower from previous action. We took steps around a voluntary exit scheme back in June, which was resulted in a large chunk of the exceptional charge within the $10 million that you see there.
Tim Lawlor: We took steps around a voluntary exit scheme back in June, which has resulted in a large chunk of the exceptional charge within the GBP 10 million that you see there. The benefits of that will start flowing through towards the end of the year. Then quickly, net finance costs is up overall. A few movements within there. Average daily net debt was higher in the H1 than the previous year. Land creditors, the average land creditor balance was also higher in the H1 than the H1 of the previous year, which both drove finance costs up. It is slightly offset by the fact that our average cost of borrowings was down to closer to 6% from being around 6.5% last year. Finally, to mention tax.
Tim Lawlor: We took steps around a voluntary exit scheme back in June, which has resulted in a large chunk of the exceptional charge within the GBP 10 million that you see there. The benefits of that will start flowing through towards the end of the year. Then quickly, net finance costs is up overall. A few movements within there. Average daily net debt was higher in the H1 than the previous year. Land creditors, the average land creditor balance was also higher in the H1 than the H1 of the previous year, which both drove finance costs up. It is slightly offset by the fact that our average cost of borrowings was down to closer to 6% from being around 6.5% last year. Finally, to mention tax.
Speaker #2: The benefits of that will start flowing through towards the end of the year. And then quickly, net finance costs is up overall. So, a few movements within there.
Speaker #2: Average daily net debt was higher in the first half than the previous year. Land creditors, the average land creditor balance was also higher in the first half than the first half of the previous year, which both drew finance costs up.
Speaker #2: A slightly offset by the fact that our average cost of borrowings was down to closer to 6% from being around 6.5% last year. And finally, to mention tax, so the big charges that we'll talk about later will generate tax credits and hence taxes and add back to profitability.
Tim Lawlor: The big charges that we will talk about later will generate tax credits and hence tax as an add back to profitability. Building safety. We took an overall charge in the H1 of the year of GBP 79 million, which is obviously higher than we expected. There was a surge in new buildings coming through assessment in the H1 of the year. Principally, these were contracting projects where we had done the work back in the 1990s. We do not have any records of some of these developments that were put together by companies that were former incarnations of part of our business. Last year, there was a pledge signed by developers which accelerated the need for assessments. That acceleration led to more claims coming through in the first part of this year for buildings where we are contractors, and hence an increase in the provision related to that.
Tim Lawlor: The big charges that we will talk about later will generate tax credits and hence tax as an add back to profitability. Building safety. We took an overall charge in the H1 of the year of GBP 79 million, which is obviously higher than we expected. There was a surge in new buildings coming through assessment in the H1 of the year. Principally, these were contracting projects where we had done the work back in the 1990s.
Speaker #2: So, building safety we took an overall charge in the first half of the year of $79 million, which is higher obviously higher than we expected.
Speaker #2: There was a surge in new buildings coming through assessment in the first half of the year. Principally, these were contracting businesses, contracting projects, where we've done the work back in the 1990s.
Speaker #2: So, we don't have any records of some of these developments that were put together by companies that were former incarnations of part of our business.
Tim Lawlor: We do not have any records of some of these developments that were put together by companies that were former incarnations of part of our business. Last year, there was a pledge signed by developers which accelerated the need for assessments. That acceleration led to more claims coming through in the first part of this year for buildings where we are contractors, and hence an increase in the provision related to that.
Speaker #2: Last year, there was a pledge signed by developers which accelerated the need for assessments. That acceleration led to more claims coming through in the first part of this year for the buildings where we're contractors, and hence an increase in the provision related to that.
Speaker #2: So, that's the main part. 31 of the additional 40 buildings are contractor buildings. We would expect that we're not going to see a surge like that again; sure, there may be some other buildings that come out out of the woodwork over the next few years, but we think that the volume should be significantly smaller because this should have come out by now.
Tim Lawlor: That is the main part. 31 of the additional 40 buildings are contractor buildings. We would expect that we are not going to see a surge like that again. Sure, there may be some other buildings that come out of the woodwork over the next few years, but we think that the volume should be significantly smaller because they should have come out by now. In terms of cash, about GBP 27 million of net cash outflow on building safety in the H1 of the year. That is net of recoveries that we had received, and we received about GBP 6 million of recoveries in the period. Goodwill. I have got 10 slides on goodwill because I thought you would all be fascinated to know about goodwill. I have not really. Where has goodwill come from? Goodwill has come from the acquisition of three parts of the business, from Countryside, from Galliford Try, and from Linden Homes.
Tim Lawlor: That is the main part. 31 of the additional 40 buildings are contractor buildings. We would expect that we are not going to see a surge like that again. Sure, there may be some other buildings that come out of the woodwork over the next few years, but we think that the volume should be significantly smaller because they should have come out by now. In terms of cash, about GBP 27 million of net cash outflow on building safety in the H1 of the year. That is net of recoveries that we had received, and we received about GBP 6 million of recoveries in the period. Goodwill.
Speaker #2: In terms of cash, about $27 million of net cash outflow on building safety in the first half of the year, that's net of recoveries that we'd received, and we received about $6 million of recoveries in the period.
Speaker #2: So, goodwill, I've got 10 slides on goodwill because I thought you'd all be fascinated to know about goodwill. I haven't really. The so, where's goodwill come from?
Tim Lawlor: I have got 10 slides on goodwill because I thought you would all be fascinated to know about goodwill. I have not really. Where has goodwill come from? Goodwill has come from the acquisition of three parts of the business, from Countryside, from Galliford Try, and from Linden Homes.
Speaker #2: Goodwill's come from the acquisition of three parts of the business from Countryside, from Gallagher Tri, and from Linton Homes. It all goes into one big bucket, and it gets assessed when there's an indicator of impairment.
Tim Lawlor: It all goes into one big bucket, and it gets assessed when there is an indicator of impairment. Clearly, a lot has happened in the first 6 months of the year that has indicated that we needed to look at it. The market environment being difficult, all of the noise that is created with the Iran war, our market capitalization has dropped and all the actions of the CEO review. All of that meant we needed to test it, and we needed to test it on the basis of a discounted cash flow based on our revised model. Again, I do not want to jump the gun, but we have got a different outlook for our 5 years, which got factored into the goodwill calculation.
Tim Lawlor: It all goes into one big bucket, and it gets assessed when there is an indicator of impairment. Clearly, a lot has happened in the first 6 months of the year that has indicated that we needed to look at it. The market environment being difficult, all of the noise that is created with the Iran war, our market capitalization has dropped and all the actions of the CEO review. All of that meant we needed to test it, and we needed to test it on the basis of a discounted cash flow based on our revised model. Again, I do not want to jump the gun, but we have got a different outlook for our 5 years, which got factored into the goodwill calculation.
Speaker #2: And clearly, a lot has happened in the first six months of the year that has indicated that we needed to look at it. So, the market environment being difficult, all of the noise that's created with the Iranian conflict, our market capitalization has dropped, and all of the actions of the CEO review.
Speaker #2: So, all of that meant we needed to test it, and we needed to test it on the basis of a discounted cash flow based on our revised model.
Speaker #2: So, again, I don't want to jump the gun, but we've got a different outlook for our five years, which we've got factored into the goodwill calculation.
Speaker #2: What gets spat out at the end of all of that is that more than half of our goodwill is impaired. So, an impairment charge of $475 million is non-cash.
Tim Lawlor: What got spat out at the end of all of that is that more than half of our goodwill is impaired, so an impairment charge of GBP 475 million. It is non-cash. It does not impact our covenants. It does not impact our ROCE. But in terms of a headline profit, it is a big number. Let us walk through the H1 cash flow quickly. We opened the year with a net debt of GBP 144 million. We made losses of GBP 83 million. A lot of those CEO review costs are non-cash and effectively reduce inventories. While inventories increased slightly and there was cash outflow in the first half of the year, the underlying inventory buildup was slightly higher than that. And where we are seeing that inventory buildup net is in infrastructure on some of the larger sites.
Tim Lawlor: What got spat out at the end of all of that is that more than half of our goodwill is impaired, so an impairment charge of GBP 475 million. It is non-cash. It does not impact our covenants. It does not impact our ROCE. But in terms of a headline profit, it is a big number. Let us walk through the H1 cash flow quickly. We opened the year with a net debt of GBP 144 million. We made losses of GBP 83 million.
Speaker #2: It doesn't impact our covenants. It rookie. But in terms of a headline profit, it's a big number. Well, let's walk through the half one cash flow quickly.
Speaker #2: So, we opened the year with a net debt of $144 million. We made losses of $83 million, a lot of those CEO review costs are non-cash and effectively reduced inventories.
Tim Lawlor: A lot of those CEO review costs are non-cash and effectively reduce inventories. While inventories increased slightly and there was cash outflow in the first half of the year, the underlying inventory buildup was slightly higher than that. And where we are seeing that inventory buildup net is in infrastructure on some of the larger sites.
Speaker #2: So, while inventories dropped sorry, inventories increased slightly and there was cash outflow in the first half of the year, it was the underlying inventory build-up was slightly higher than that.
Speaker #2: And where we're seeing that inventory build-up net is in infrastructure on some of the larger sites. So, that's where the inventory is trapped. And that's fed into our thinking in the CEO review.
Tim Lawlor: That is where the inventory is trapped, and that has fed into our thinking in the CEO review. More significantly, we have reduced our land creditor balance by over GBP 100 million in the first half of the year. We expect further reduction in land creditors in the second half of the year. I will pick up one more point in there, which is around the net investment in JVs. While our investment in JVs picked up by GBP 30 million, a large chunk of that was the funding that we put into the JVs to pay down the debt within the joint ventures. Joint venture debt and land creditors, our share has dropped by GBP 23 million in the first half of the year. Then in terms of capital employed. We always see capital employed jump up in the first half of the year. It is relatively seasonal.
Tim Lawlor: That is where the inventory is trapped, and that has fed into our thinking in the CEO review. More significantly, we have reduced our land creditor balance by over GBP 100 million in the first half of the year. We expect further reduction in land creditors in the second half of the year.
Speaker #2: More significantly, we've reduced our land creditor balance by over $100 million in the first half of the year. We expect further reduction in land creditors in the second half of the year.
Speaker #2: And I'll pick up one more point in there, which is around the net investment in JVs. So, while our investment in JVs picked up by $30 million, a large chunk of that was the funding that we put into the JVs to pay down the debt within the joint ventures.
Tim Lawlor: I will pick up one more point in there, which is around the net investment in JVs. While our investment in JVs picked up by GBP 30 million, a large chunk of that was the funding that we put into the JVs to pay down the debt within the joint ventures. Joint venture debt and land creditors, our share has dropped by GBP 23 million in the first half of the year. Then in terms of capital employed. We always see capital employed jump up in the first half of the year. It is relatively seasonal.
Speaker #2: So, joint venture debt and land creditors are share has dropped by $23 million in the first half of the year. And then in terms of capital employees, so we always see capital employee jump up in the first half of the year.
Speaker #2: It's relatively seasonal. There's more activity in the second half than the first half, and hence there's more capital employed generally bigger than normal because the reduction in land creditors was abnormal.
Tim Lawlor: There is more activity in the second half than the first half, and hence there is more capital employed generally in the first half. The impact was bigger than normal because the reduction in land creditors was abnormal. We do not normally see a land creditor reduction of the scale that we saw in the first half of the year. As land creditors comes down, capital employed goes up. Work in progress. We are making good progress in terms of getting rid of the unsold, getting rid of our stock, and we will see more of that in the second half of the year. But as I mentioned before, it is the infrastructure investment that is offsetting that.
Tim Lawlor: There is more activity in the second half than the first half, and hence there is more capital employed generally in the first half. The impact was bigger than normal because the reduction in land creditors was abnormal. We do not normally see a land creditor reduction of the scale that we saw in the first half of the year. As land creditors comes down, capital employed goes up. Work in progress. We are making good progress in terms of getting rid of the unsold, getting rid of our stock, and we will see more of that in the second half of the year. But as I mentioned before, it is the infrastructure investment that is offsetting that.
Speaker #2: We don't normally see a land creditor reduction of the scale that we saw in the first half of the year. And so, as land creditors goes up or land creditors comes down, capital employed goes up.
Speaker #2: So, work in progress, we're making good progress in terms of getting rid of the unsold, getting rid of our stock, and we'll see more of that in the second half of the year.
Speaker #2: But as I mentioned before, it's the infrastructure investment that is offsetting that. So, finally, giving a little bit more color in the presentation to covenants, because we've been asked about it a lot, and there's no reason to hide from what is actually a pretty good covenant story.
Tim Lawlor: Finally, giving a little bit more color in the presentation to covenants because we have been asked about it a lot, and there is no reason to hide from what is actually a pretty good covenant story. There is significant headroom for all our covenants at H1. You will see that interest cover, which gets a lot of focus, was actually way above the minimum requirement, and that is because the way it is calculated with some of the add backs to interest costs. So significant headroom for the H1 covenant tests. One of the things we did, though, in anticipation of the impact of the CEO review, was we engaged with our banks to say, "Look, these CEO review items that are coming out are going to impact our profitability. We cannot be sure about the treatment of exceptional or otherwise. So let us be prudent.
Tim Lawlor: Finally, giving a little bit more color in the presentation to covenants because we have been asked about it a lot, and there is no reason to hide from what is actually a pretty good covenant story. There is significant headroom for all our covenants at H1. You will see that interest cover, which gets a lot of focus, was actually way above the minimum requirement, and that is because the way it is calculated with some of the add backs to interest costs. So significant headroom for the H1 covenant tests.
Speaker #2: There's significant headroom for all our covenants at half year. You'll see the interest cover, which gets a lot of focus, was actually way above the minimum requirement, and that's because of the way it's calculated with some of the add backs to interest cost.
Speaker #2: So, significant headroom for the half-year covenant tests. One of the things we did, though, in anticipation of the impacts of the CEO review, was we engaged with our banks to say, "Look, these CEO review items that are coming out are going to impact our profitability.
Tim Lawlor: One of the things we did, though, in anticipation of the impact of the CEO review, was we engaged with our banks to say, "Look, these CEO review items that are coming out are going to impact our profitability. We cannot be sure about the treatment of exceptional or otherwise. So let us be prudent.
Speaker #2: We can't be sure about the treatment of exceptional or otherwise. So, let's be prudent. Let's talk about these covenants in advance." So, we're talking about the covenants at the end of this year and the half-year point next year.
Tim Lawlor: Let us talk about these covenants in advance." So we are talking about the covenants at the end of this year and at the H1 point next year. We have had a very active engagement with our banks, many people in the room here today from our banks. It has been a very supportive process, and the banks have waived the interest cover covenant for the end of this year and the H1 next year, recognizing that these charges are one-off and the right thing to do for the business. So, grateful for the banks for taking that area of uncertainty away, and I think what that demonstrates is the support that our banks have for Vistry. Then in terms of going concern, again, we have provided a lot of disclosure in our RNS to enable you to spend some time poring through the assumptions and assessing them.
Tim Lawlor: Let us talk about these covenants in advance." So we are talking about the covenants at the end of this year and at the H1 point next year.
Speaker #2: And we've had a very active engagement with our banks, many of people in the room here today from our banks. It's been a very supportive process, and the banks have waived the interest cover covenant for the end of this year and the half-year next year, recognizing that these charges are one-off and the right thing to do for the business.
Tim Lawlor: We have had a very active engagement with our banks, many people in the room here today from our banks. It has been a very supportive process, and the banks have waived the interest cover covenant for the end of this year and the H1 next year, recognizing that these charges are one-off and the right thing to do for the business. So, grateful for the banks for taking that area of uncertainty away, and I think what that demonstrates is the support that our banks have for Vistry. Then in terms of going concern, again, we have provided a lot of disclosure in our RNS to enable you to spend some time poring through the assumptions and assessing them.
Speaker #2: So, grateful for the banks for taking that area of uncertainty away. And I think what that demonstrates is the support that our banks have for Vistry.
Speaker #2: And then in terms of going concern, again, we provided a lot of disclosure in our RNS to enable you to spend some time poring through the assumptions and assessing them.
Speaker #2: But we've looked at a severe but plausible downside case and concluded there was no material uncertainty on our going concern. That's been supported by obviously by the board of directors, but also by the auditors.
Tim Lawlor: But we have looked at a severe but plausible downside case and concluded there was no material uncertainty on our going concern. That has been supported obviously by the board of directors, but also by the auditors, and a clean opinion again for going concern. I will come back to the refinancing activity that we expect to commence in October later on. Good. That will do me for now.
Tim Lawlor: But we have looked at a severe but plausible downside case and concluded there was no material uncertainty on our going concern. That has been supported obviously by the board of directors, but also by the auditors, and a clean opinion again for going concern. I will come back to the refinancing activity that we expect to commence in October later on. Good. That will do me for now.
Speaker #2: And a clean opinion again for going concern. And I'll come back to the refinancing activity that we expect to commence in October later on.
Speaker #2: Good. I'll do for me do me for now.
Speaker #1: So, as I talked about earlier, we did a root and branch review of the business. This was a very detailed piece of work with external support, working alongside our internal teams.
Adam Daniels: As I talked about earlier, we did a root and branch review of the business. This was a very detailed piece of work with external support, working alongside our internal teams. So we looked across all the sites in the portfolio, all the live sites, site by site review, and we did a detailed review of how we are operating, what is going well, what is not going so well. So the objectives were, how do we get this business performing rather than disappointing? That is a key driver. I have got real faith that this business can perform well and how do we get it into that shape? We want to understand where the model works and where it is letting us down. What scale of business do we want to create that gives us the requisite quality of returns that we want?
Adam Daniels: As I talked about earlier, we did a root and branch review of the business. This was a very detailed piece of work with external support, working alongside our internal teams. So we looked across all the sites in the portfolio, all the live sites, site by site review, and we did a detailed review of how we are operating, what is going well, what is not going so well. So the objectives were, how do we get this business performing rather than disappointing? That is a key driver. I have got real faith that this business can perform well and how do we get it into that shape? We want to understand where the model works and where it is letting us down. What scale of business do we want to create that gives us the requisite quality of returns that we want?
Speaker #1: And so, we looked across all the sites in the portfolio. All the live sites, site by site review, and we did a detailed review of how we're operating, what's going well, what's not going so well.
Speaker #1: So, the objectives were how do we get this business performing rather than disappointing? That's a key driver. I've got real faith that this business can perform well.
Speaker #1: And how do we get it into that shape? We want to understand where the model works and where it's letting us down. What scale of business do we want to create that gives us the requisite quality of returns that we want?
Speaker #1: We identify how those best performing sites succeed and therefore how we replicate that. And see where those worst performing sites are and how we avoid that in the future.
Adam Daniels: We identify how those best performing sites succeed, therefore how we replicate that and see where those worst performing sites are and how we avoid that in the future. Following that, we shape the overhead to ensure we have got those high quality teams delivering on the plan. The review assessed our geographic footprint. It looked at margin quality, capital intensity, risk profile, all across those schemes. It looked at a detailed review of the market demand for the 10 years across our footprint. It looked at the implementation challenges since we started moving to all partnerships in 2023. I will talk through in detail what we found in those sites. We clearly looked at capital intensity and scale of the balance sheet. We talked to our stakeholders, including our partners, about how we may improve as we move forwards. Key findings.
Adam Daniels: We identify how those best performing sites succeed, therefore how we replicate that and see where those worst performing sites are and how we avoid that in the future. Following that, we shape the overhead to ensure we have got those high quality teams delivering on the plan. The review assessed our geographic footprint. It looked at margin quality, capital intensity, risk profile, all across those schemes. It looked at a detailed review of the market demand for the 10 years across our footprint. It looked at the implementation challenges since we started moving to all partnerships in 2023.
Speaker #1: And then following that, we shape the overhead to ensure we've got those high quality teams delivering on the plan. So, the review assessed our geographic footprint.
Speaker #1: It looked at margin quality, capital intensity, risk profile, all across those schemes. It looked at a detailed review of the market demand for the 10 years across our footprint.
Speaker #1: It looked at the implementation challenges since we started moving to all partnerships in 2023. And I'll talk through in detail what we found in those sites.
Adam Daniels: I will talk through in detail what we found in those sites. We clearly looked at capital intensity and scale of the balance sheet. We talked to our stakeholders, including our partners, about how we may improve as we move forwards. Key findings.
Speaker #1: We clearly looked at capital intensity and scale of the balance sheet. And we talked to our stakeholders, including our partners, about how we may improve as we move forwards.
Speaker #1: So, key findings. Firstly, Vistry rapidly evolved through M&A. And that gave us a differentiated mixed tenure model at the end of that. Vistry remains a high quality business.
Adam Daniels: Firstly, Vistry rapidly evolved through M&A, that gave us a differentiated mixed tenure model at the end of that. Vistry remains a high quality business. We have got the best relationships in the sector with partners, local authorities, landowners in our supply chain. That transition from all the businesses we brought together into partnerships clearly offered some challenges. The operating controls, culture, and model did not keep pace with that shift across to partnerships. Even though we had external market headwinds, that has not explained all of the underperformance in some areas of the business. There was lots of site by site variability. There has been a big focus on short term targets, short term growth, that has compounded a misalignment between profit and cash.
Adam Daniels: Firstly, Vistry rapidly evolved through M&A, that gave us a differentiated mixed tenure model at the end of that. Vistry remains a high quality business. We have got the best relationships in the sector with partners, local authorities, landowners in our supply chain. That transition from all the businesses we brought together into partnerships clearly offered some challenges. The operating controls, culture, and model did not keep pace with that shift across to partnerships. Even though we had external market headwinds, that has not explained all of the underperformance in some areas of the business. There was lots of site by site variability. There has been a big focus on short term targets, short term growth, that has compounded a misalignment between profit and cash.
Speaker #1: We have got the best relationships in the sector with partners, local authorities, landowners, and our supply chain. And that transition from all the businesses we brought together into partnerships clearly offered some challenges.
Speaker #1: And the operating controls culture and model didn't keep pace with that shift across to partnerships. And even though we had external market headwinds, that hasn't explained all of the underperformance in some areas of the business.
Speaker #1: And there's lots of site by site variability. There's been a big focus on short-term targets, short-term growth, and that's compounded a misalignment between profit and cash.
Speaker #1: And that significant variation in site performance that I mentioned earlier involved inconsistent commercial terms, operating processes, and discipline around capital deployment, particularly into land and WIP.
Adam Daniels: That significant variation in site performance that I mentioned earlier involved inconsistent commercial terms, operating processes, and discipline around capital deployment, particularly into land and WIP. The product remains very strong, so excellent product for our partners. Very good private product with very good quality. All of the sites that we looked at that were performing well had a consistent set of site characteristics, which I will talk you through. The summary is that a mixed tenure model is the right model for Vistry. There are attractive structural economics and great demand for the type of sites that we will bring forward. How did we get here? In 2020, Bovis acquired Galliford Try Partnerships and Linden. That was the first step to add partnerships into the wider group in 2020.
Adam Daniels: That significant variation in site performance that I mentioned earlier involved inconsistent commercial terms, operating processes, and discipline around capital deployment, particularly into land and WIP. The product remains very strong, so excellent product for our partners. Very good private product with very good quality. All of the sites that we looked at that were performing well had a consistent set of site characteristics, which I will talk you through. The summary is that a mixed tenure model is the right model for Vistry. There are attractive structural economics and great demand for the type of sites that we will bring forward. How did we get here? In 2020, Bovis acquired Galliford Try Partnerships and Linden. That was the first step to add partnerships into the wider group in 2020.
Speaker #1: The product remains very strong. So, excellent product for our partners, very good private product with very good quality. But all of the sites that we looked at that were performing well had a consistent set of site characteristics, which I'll talk you through.
Speaker #1: The summary is that a mixed tenure model is the right model for Vistry. There are attractive structural economics and great demand for the type of sites that we will bring forward.
Speaker #1: So, how do we get here? In 2020, Bovis acquired Galahford Tri Partnerships and Linden. That was the first step to add partnerships into the wider group in 2020.
Speaker #1: That was followed up in 2022 by the acquisition of Countryside, where they added more partnerships expertise into the business. And from that point, for a couple of years, ran the business as a house builder and a partnerships business sitting alongside each other.
Adam Daniels: That was followed up in 2022 by the acquisition of Countryside, where they added more partnerships expertise into the business. From that point, for a couple of years, ran the business as a house builder and the partnerships business sitting alongside each other. In 2024, we shifted the strategy to all partnerships by turning all the regions we have got into developing all the sites on a partnerships basis to try and maximize our capital efficiency. The 2024 step has shown some very good signs, but was not executed exactly in the way that we should have done and caused us a few issues during that period of time. What it did give us, this rapid evolution in M&A, is great reach, very good people, really good capability in various areas of mixed tenure development, including partnerships and regen, and mixed tenure.
Adam Daniels: That was followed up in 2022 by the acquisition of Countryside, where they added more partnerships expertise into the business. From that point, for a couple of years, ran the business as a house builder and the partnerships business sitting alongside each other. In 2024, we shifted the strategy to all partnerships by turning all the regions we have got into developing all the sites on a partnerships basis to try and maximize our capital efficiency.
Speaker #1: In 2024, we shifted the strategy to all partnerships. By turning all the regions we've got into developing all the sites on a partnerships basis.
Speaker #1: To try and maximize our capital efficiency. And the 2024 step has shown some very good signs, but wasn't executed exactly in the way that we should have done.
Adam Daniels: The 2024 step has shown some very good signs, but was not executed exactly in the way that we should have done and caused us a few issues during that period of time. What it did give us, this rapid evolution in M&A, is great reach, very good people, really good capability in various areas of mixed tenure development, including partnerships and regen, and mixed tenure.
Speaker #1: And caused us a few issues during that period of time. What it did give us, this rapid evolution in M&A, is great reach. Very, very good people, really good capability in various areas of mixed tenure development, including partnerships and regen and mixed tenure.
Speaker #1: And so, some great positives by this piece of work. And since 2024, I can evidence some really good sites since then and can also evidence some missteps.
Adam Daniels: Some great positives about this piece of work. Since 2024, I can evidence some really good sites since then. I can also evidence some missteps. The goal of the CEO review is to simplify the platform. This business is quite complex. It has come from lots of different areas, and we can make it a lot simpler. I am not telling you anything new on this slide. We have had market challenges since 2023. We have had high build cost inflation, high interest rates. The RPs have come under pressure with funding and how funding has flowed, and we have had fluctuating consumer confidence. I do want to talk about how a majority of our sites have performed well despite these market conditions and this weakness in the market. Just to talk briefly about the mixed tenure models. On this side, we have got how a house builder operates.
Adam Daniels: Some great positives about this piece of work. Since 2024, I can evidence some really good sites since then. I can also evidence some missteps. The goal of the CEO review is to simplify the platform. This business is quite complex. It has come from lots of different areas, and we can make it a lot simpler. I am not telling you anything new on this slide.
Speaker #1: The goal of the CEO review is to simplify the platform. This business is quite complex. It's come from lots of different areas. And we can make it a lot simpler.
Speaker #1: So, I'm not telling you anything new on this slide. We've had market challenges since 2023. We've had high bill cost inflation. High interest rates.
Adam Daniels: We have had market challenges since 2023. We have had high build cost inflation, high interest rates. The RPs have come under pressure with funding and how funding has flowed, and we have had fluctuating consumer confidence. I do want to talk about how a majority of our sites have performed well despite these market conditions and this weakness in the market. Just to talk briefly about the mixed tenure models. On this side, we have got how a house builder operates.
Speaker #1: There are fees that have come under pressure with funding and how funding has flowed. And we've had fluctuating consumer confidence. But I do want to talk about how a majority of our sites have performed well despite these market conditions and this weakness in the market.
Speaker #1: Just to talk briefly about the mixed tenure model. So, on this side, we've got how a house builder operates. They buy land. They don't bring any cash upfront in land.
Adam Daniels: They buy land. They do not bring any cash up front in land. Then they spend money building their plots. They bring a small amount of cash in through their RPs through Section 106 units. At the end, they bring all their cash back in when they sell their homes and hand them over to customers. They clearly want a higher gross margin, but there is more risk here and cash takes longer to come back into the business. From our perspective, we have got immediate recovery of cash up front. So we buy our land, and then we bring in cash from our partner straightaway. 10% to 25% of the cash potential of the site arrives right up front. Following that, we build our units. Partners acquire circa 60%, and therefore, 25% to 35% of the cash comes forward as we build the site out, lowering that overall capital exposure.
Adam Daniels: They buy land. They do not bring any cash up front in land. Then they spend money building their plots. They bring a small amount of cash in through their RPs through Section 106 units. At the end, they bring all their cash back in when they sell their homes and hand them over to customers. They clearly want a higher gross margin, but there is more risk here and cash takes longer to come back into the business. From our perspective, we have got immediate recovery of cash up front. So we buy our land, and then we bring in cash from our partner straightaway. 10% to 25% of the cash potential of the site arrives right up front. Following that, we build our units.
Speaker #1: Then they spend money, building their plots. They bring a small amount of cash in through their RPs, through section 106 units. And at the end, they bring all their cash back in when they sell their homes and hand them over to customers.
Speaker #1: They clearly want a higher gross margin, but there's more risk here. And cash takes longer to come back into the business. From our perspective, we've got immediate recovery of cash upfront.
Speaker #1: So, we buy our land. And then we bring in cash from our partners straight away, 10% to 25% of the cash potential of the site, arrives right upfront.
Speaker #1: Following that, we build our units. Partners acquire circa 60%. And therefore, 25% to 35% of the cash comes forward as we build the site out, lowering that overall capital exposure.
Adam Daniels: Partners acquire circa 60%, and therefore, 25% to 35% of the cash comes forward as we build the site out, lowering that overall capital exposure.
Speaker #1: And at the end, we have a number of open market units. And they recover cash, but far less than a house building counterparts. So, we'll look for a lower overall margin but clearly easier cash conversion.
Adam Daniels: At the end, we have a number of open market units, and they recover cash, but far less than our housebuilding counterparts. So we will look for a lower overall margin, but clearly easier cash conversion, and that cash converting earlier on in the process. This graph, I think, shows very clearly the advantages to that. So if we take the purple line, this is a house builder. Buys land that spends a lot of cash, invests in WIP, and gradually over time, as they sell the houses, comes back to this breakeven point. We have seen that, and we see that in that model, you want a high margin because of the risk you are taking, and you deliver a lower ROCE. Vistry sits between this pink line and the blue line, in this shaded area in the middle.
Adam Daniels: At the end, we have a number of open market units, and they recover cash, but far less than our housebuilding counterparts. So we will look for a lower overall margin, but clearly easier cash conversion, and that cash converting earlier on in the process. This graph, I think, shows very clearly the advantages to that. So if we take the purple line, this is a house builder. Buys land that spends a lot of cash, invests in WIP, and gradually over time, as they sell the houses, comes back to this breakeven point.
Speaker #1: And that cash converting earlier on in the process. And this graph, I think, shows very clearly the advantages to that. So, if we take the purple line, this is a house builder.
Speaker #1: Buys land, expends a lot of cash, invests in WIP, and gradually over time, as they sell their houses, comes back to this break-even point.
Speaker #1: We've seen that. And we see that in that model, you want a high margin because of the risk you're taking. And you'll deliver a lower OK.
Adam Daniels: We have seen that, and we see that in that model, you want a high margin because of the risk you are taking, and you deliver a lower ROCE. Vistry sits between this pink line and the blue line, in this shaded area in the middle.
Speaker #1: Vistry sits between this pink line and the blue line. In this shaded area, in the middle. The pink line at the bottom is a mixed tenure site, more balanced towards private.
Adam Daniels: The pink line at the bottom is a mixed tenure site, more balanced towards private. So it has got a small amount of upfront capital because we pay our land payment the same as a house builder, but we recover this element from our partners, giving us a capital light start to the site. On a mixed tenure basis, we then do invest in the site with some WIP, but that recovers more quickly as partners pay us on a monthly basis alongside our first completions. We get to this breakeven point much earlier in the process. The blue line is our all partner, what you may describe as contracting schemes or partner delivery schemes. So in these examples, we buy the land, but on the same day, we transact with a partner. They become cash positive straightaway.
Adam Daniels: The pink line at the bottom is a mixed tenure site, more balanced towards private. So it has got a small amount of upfront capital because we pay our land payment the same as a house builder, but we recover this element from our partners, giving us a capital light start to the site. On a mixed tenure basis, we then do invest in the site with some WIP, but that recovers more quickly as partners pay us on a monthly basis alongside our first completions. We get to this breakeven point much earlier in the process. The blue line is our all partner, what you may describe as contracting schemes or partner delivery schemes. So in these examples, we buy the land, but on the same day, we transact with a partner. They become cash positive straightaway.
Speaker #1: So, it's got a small amount of upfront capital because we pay our land payment the same as a house builder. But we recover this element from our partners, giving us a capital light start to the site.
Speaker #1: On a mixed tenure basis, we then do invest in the site with some WIP. But that recovers more quickly as partners pay us on a monthly basis alongside our first completions.
Speaker #1: We get to this break-even point much earlier in the process. The blue line is our all-partner, what you may describe as contracting schemes, all-partner delivery schemes.
Speaker #1: So, in these examples, we buy the land. But on the same day, we transact with a partner. They become cash positive straight away. They're always very high rowkey.
Adam Daniels: They are always very high ROCE, and they are always cash positive through to the end. Lower margins in the blue line because ROCE is extremely high and there is no cash investment, and better margins between 12% and 30%, depending on where on that scale we sit on the pink line. I think a really good graphic to show exactly why mixed tenure should make us lower risk, more reliable, and more consistent. Shorter, shallower troughs, 60% of the model funded from our own partners, and earlier breakeven points versus house builders, which require greater capital investment. When we reviewed the sites, they ended up in two areas. Good sites on the left and underperforming sites on the right. The good sites had three consistent things we wanted to see.
Adam Daniels: They are always very high ROCE, and they are always cash positive through to the end. Lower margins in the blue line because ROCE is extremely high and there is no cash investment, and better margins between 12% and 30%, depending on where on that scale we sit on the pink line. I think a really good graphic to show exactly why mixed tenure should make us lower risk, more reliable, and more consistent. Shorter, shallower troughs, 60% of the model funded from our own partners, and earlier breakeven points versus house builders, which require greater capital investment. When we reviewed the sites, they ended up in two areas. Good sites on the left and underperforming sites on the right. The good sites had three consistent things we wanted to see.
Speaker #1: And they're always cash positive through to the end. Lower margins in the blue line because rowkey is extremely high. And there's no cash investment.
Speaker #1: And better margins between 12% and 30%, depending on where on that scale we sit on the pink line. So, I think a really good graphic to show exactly why a mixed tenure should make us lower risk, more reliable, and more consistent.
Speaker #1: So, shorter, shallower troughs, 60% of the model, funded from our own partners. And earlier break-even points versus house builders which require greater capital investment.
Speaker #1: So, when we reviewed the sites, they ended up in two areas. Good sites on the left and underperforming sites on the right. And the good sites had three consistent things we wanted to see.
Speaker #1: Low peak fund requirements, greater than 40% rowkey, and a margin better than 12% all the way up to 30% plus margins and some other sites.
Adam Daniels: Low peak fund requirements, greater than 40% ROCE, and a margin better than 12%, all the way up to 30% plus margins in some of the sites. In the underperforming sites, we had schemes that exhibited weak performance, mainly around balance sheet drag, so money going out the door without quick enough recovery, challenges related to tenure mix. How does the open market play alongside the additionality affordable and the PRS, and poor commercial terms on the transactions. We could sort these into those areas and create a clear and concise list of the sites that we have got in our portfolio. What the CEO review has done is converted these site-level lessons into mandatory investment criteria, which will drive the future quality of our land, meaning we get more repeatable cash margin and returns. I think this pie chart is really interesting.
Adam Daniels: Low peak fund requirements, greater than 40% ROCE, and a margin better than 12%, all the way up to 30% plus margins in some of the sites. In the underperforming sites, we had schemes that exhibited weak performance, mainly around balance sheet drag, so money going out the door without quick enough recovery, challenges related to tenure mix. How does the open market play alongside the additionality affordable and the PRS, and poor commercial terms on the transactions.
Speaker #1: In the underperforming sites, we had schemes that exhibited weaker performance, mainly around balance sheet drag. So, money going out the door without quick enough recovery.
Speaker #1: Challenges related to tenure mix. So, how does the open market play alongside the additionality affordable and the PRS? And poor commercial terms on the transactions.
Speaker #1: And we could sort these into those areas and create a clear and concise list of the sites that we've got in our portfolio. And what the CEO review has done is converted these site-level lessons into mandatory investment criteria.
Adam Daniels: We could sort these into those areas and create a clear and concise list of the sites that we have got in our portfolio. What the CEO review has done is converted these site-level lessons into mandatory investment criteria, which will drive the future quality of our land, meaning we get more repeatable cash margin and returns. I think this pie chart is really interesting.
Speaker #1: Which will drive the future quality of our land, meaning we get more repeatable cash margin and returns. And I think this pie chart is really interesting.
Speaker #1: If you look at the partnerships model, what our finding said is that 59% of our business, as it is today, across all of our active sites, are performing well.
Adam Daniels: If you look at the partnerships model, what our findings said is that 59% of our business, as it is today across all of our active sites, are performing well. 18.5% gross margin average in the 59%. That is a really reassuring stat. Despite all those market headwinds that I gave you at the start, despite the fact we have had those inflationary environments, low consumer confidence, et cetera, gap in funding, 60% of the business almost is doing exactly what we expect it to do. This is a picture of what this business can achieve when executed effectively. A really reassuring pie chart that shows the purple is a great underlying business. The light blue shows some sites that underperformed, and you are always going to get an element of the light blue. We are a developer. We take some risk. Sometimes things do not go quite as you planned.
Adam Daniels: If you look at the partnerships model, what our findings said is that 59% of our business, as it is today across all of our active sites, are performing well. 18.5% gross margin average in the 59%. That is a really reassuring stat. Despite all those market headwinds that I gave you at the start, despite the fact we have had those inflationary environments, low consumer confidence, et cetera, gap in funding, 60% of the business almost is doing exactly what we expect it to do. This is a picture of what this business can achieve when executed effectively.
Speaker #1: 18.5% gross margin average in the 59%. That's a really reassuring stat. So, despite all those market headwinds that I gave you at the start, despite the fact we've had those inflationary environments, low consumer confidence, et cetera, gap in funding, 60% of the business almost is doing exactly what we expected it to do.
Speaker #1: Now, this is a picture of what this business can achieve when executed effectively. So, a really, really, really reassuring pie chart that shows the purple is a great underlying business.
Adam Daniels: A really reassuring pie chart that shows the purple is a great underlying business. The light blue shows some sites that underperformed, and you are always going to get an element of the light blue. We are a developer. We take some risk. Sometimes things do not go quite as you planned.
Speaker #1: The light blue shows some sites that have underperformed. And you're always going to get an element of the light blue where a developer who takes some risk sometimes things don't go quite as you planned.
Speaker #1: So, you're always going to get an element of the light blue that holds back your performance. And in the gray at the top, that's the part of the business that's really isn't 't performing.
Adam Daniels: You are always going to get an element of the light blue that holds back your performance. In the gray at the top, that is the part of the business that really is not performing, really is an area that is holding us back and not allowing us to show off the benefits of this 59%. You can see here by the detail work we have done, the reason why we are recommitting to mixed tenure is because we have evidenced it works. It works in the right geographies with the right tenure mixes. With this average gross margin of 18.5%, with an estimated operating cost of around 5%, that 12% target that I have talked about in the future in the RNS this morning is very achievable. I am going to take you through a couple of sites, a few really good performers and a few that are holding us back.
Adam Daniels: You are always going to get an element of the light blue that holds back your performance. In the gray at the top, that is the part of the business that really is not performing, really is an area that is holding us back and not allowing us to show off the benefits of this 59%.
Speaker #1: Really is an area that's holding us back and not allowing us to show off the benefits of this 59%. So, you can see here by the detail work we've done, the reason why we're recommitting to mixed tenure is because we have evidenced it works.
Adam Daniels: You can see here by the detail work we have done, the reason why we are recommitting to mixed tenure is because we have evidenced it works. It works in the right geographies with the right tenure mixes. With this average gross margin of 18.5%, with an estimated operating cost of around 5%, that 12% target that I have talked about in the future in the RNS this morning is very achievable. I am going to take you through a couple of sites, a few really good performers and a few that are holding us back.
Speaker #1: It works in the right geographies with the right tenure mixes. And with this average gross margin of 18.5%, with an estimated operating cost of around 5%, that 12% target that I've talked about in the future in the RNS this morning is very, very achievable.
Speaker #1: So, I'm going to take you through a couple of sites. A few really good performers and a few that are holding us back. This site is in the Northeast.
Adam Daniels: This site is in the Northeast. It started in February 2020 and finished in September 2025. It went through that process. It went through COVID, it went through high inflation, it went through poor consumer confidence. 375 units, a good scale, and a very strong gross margin, 25% on a mixed tenure basis of 45% open market and 55% additionality through PRS affordable and Section 106. An extremely strong ROCE and no cash tie-up at any point through the job. Land payment went out, land monies came in from our partners, made us zero cash at the start, and through that, the cash generative partner work paid for our WIP investment on the private. No cash tie-up, extremely high ROCE, fantastic margin. You can see this is a finished site in difficult market conditions.
Adam Daniels: This site is in the Northeast. It started in February 2020 and finished in September 2025. It went through that process. It went through COVID, it went through high inflation, it went through poor consumer confidence. 375 units, a good scale, and a very strong gross margin, 25% on a mixed tenure basis of 45% open market and 55% additionality through PRS affordable and Section 106. An extremely strong ROCE and no cash tie-up at any point through the job. Land payment went out, land monies came in from our partners, made us zero cash at the start, and through that, the cash generative partner work paid for our WIP investment on the private. No cash tie-up, extremely high ROCE, fantastic margin. You can see this is a finished site in difficult market conditions.
Speaker #1: It started in February 2020 and finished in September 2025. So, it went through that process. It went through COVID. It went through high inflation.
Speaker #1: It went through poor consumer confidence. 375 units, so good scale. And a very, very strong gross margin. 25% on a mixed tenure basis of 45% open market and 55% additionality through PRS, affordable, and section 106.
Speaker #1: An extremely strong rowkey. And no cash tie-up at any point through the job. So, land payment went out. Land moneys came in from our partners, made us a zero cash at the start.
Speaker #1: And through that, the partner generative cash sorry, the cash generative partner work paid for our WIP investment on the private. So, no cash tie-up.
Speaker #1: Extremely high rowkey. Fantastic margin. And you can see this is a finished site in difficult market conditions. So, face those market headwinds. And yet achieve some very, very good returns.
Adam Daniels: Faced those market headwinds and yet achieved some very good returns. It is a fantastic example of what is achievable even in difficult times. Here is a second example in the Northwest, and I want to talk about this site because it shows how our tenure flexibility should allow us to follow the market, and that is what a partnerships business should do. Our business should follow the market conditions and not speculate. House builders speculate. They buy land, they hope that they are going to get the private price that they want, they make better margins. We should adjust our plans to follow the market. We bought this site in November 2024. When we first bought the site of 250 plots, we were expecting to do 50% additionality affordable and 50% private.
Adam Daniels: Faced those market headwinds and yet achieved some very good returns. It is a fantastic example of what is achievable even in difficult times. Here is a second example in the Northwest, and I want to talk about this site because it shows how our tenure flexibility should allow us to follow the market, and that is what a partnerships business should do. Our business should follow the market conditions and not speculate. House builders speculate. They buy land, they hope that they are going to get the private price that they want, they make better margins. We should adjust our plans to follow the market. We bought this site in November 2024. When we first bought the site of 250 plots, we were expecting to do 50% additionality affordable and 50% private.
Speaker #1: So, fantastic example of what is achievable even in difficult times. Here's a second example in the Northwest. And I want to talk about this site because it shows how our tenure flexibility should allow us to follow the market.
Speaker #1: And that's what our partnerships business should do. Our business should follow the market conditions and not speculate. House builders speculate. They buy land. They hope that they're going to get the private price that they want.
Speaker #1: They make better margins. We should adjust our plans to follow the market. So, we bought this site in November 2024. When we first bought the site of 250 plots, we were expecting to do 50% additionality affordable and 50% private.
Speaker #1: As we got through the market conditions we've been in, we said is private as reliable as we want in this market? Do we think we're going to sell at the rate we expect?
Adam Daniels: As we got through the market condition we have been in, we said, "Is private as reliable as we want in this market? Do we think we are going to sell at the rate we expect?" We went out and we got an offer for taking 50% of the site as PRS. We decided that in the market conditions we are in, making this lower risk all pre-sold would be a better outcome. The margin reduced slightly from 23% to 20% to allow for that discounting to bring in the PRS. As you can see, the ROCE went through the roof to 311%, and we still maintain a very strong margin percentage with a max cash tie-up of GBP 4.1 million. A very well-structured partnership arrangement, cash positive very early in the process, very low cash upfront investment, and an attractive scale of circa 250 plots.
Adam Daniels: As we got through the market condition we have been in, we said, "Is private as reliable as we want in this market? Do we think we are going to sell at the rate we expect?" We went out and we got an offer for taking 50% of the site as PRS. We decided that in the market conditions we are in, making this lower risk all pre-sold would be a better outcome. The margin reduced slightly from 23% to 20% to allow for that discounting to bring in the PRS. As you can see, the ROCE went through the roof to 311%, and we still maintain a very strong margin percentage with a max cash tie-up of GBP 4.1 million.
Speaker #1: And so, we went out and we got an offer for taking 50% of the site as PRS. So, we decided that in the market conditions we're in, making this lower risk or pre-sold would be a better outcome.
Speaker #1: The margin reduced slightly from 23 to 20 to allow for that discounting to bring in the PRS. But as you can see, the rowkey went through the roof to 311.
Speaker #1: And we still maintained a very strong margin percentage with a max cash tie-up of 4.1 million. So, a very well-structured partnership arrangement. Cash positive very early in the process.
Adam Daniels: A very well-structured partnership arrangement, cash positive very early in the process, very low cash upfront investment, and an attractive scale of circa 250 plots.
Speaker #1: Very low cash upfront investment. And an attractive scale of circa 350 plots. But this is the benefit of the model. If you're in a better time on private, and you approach this site, you'd sell your 50% private.
Adam Daniels: This is the benefit of the model. If you are in a better time on private and you approach this site, we would sell you 50% private, you make a bit more margin, and it will still keep a low footprint on your balance sheet. If you are going into a market where private is less reliable, you can move it into partnerships and tie down your risk and keep your cash investment lower and drive your return on capital employed. A really good example of following the market with our model rather than speculating. What are the themes of those successful sites? I will allow you to read these in the packs in detail, but I will call a few of these out. Where we have got that strong regional demand, something I will come back to a little bit later on.
Adam Daniels: This is the benefit of the model. If you are in a better time on private and you approach this site, we would sell you 50% private, you make a bit more margin, and it will still keep a low footprint on your balance sheet. If you are going into a market where private is less reliable, you can move it into partnerships and tie down your risk and keep your cash investment lower and drive your return on capital employed. A really good example of following the market with our model rather than speculating. What are the themes of those successful sites? I will allow you to read these in the packs in detail, but I will call a few of these out. Where we have got that strong regional demand, something I will come back to a little bit later on.
Speaker #1: You make a bit more margin. And it will still keep a low footprint on your balance sheet. If you're going into a market where private is less reliable, you can move it into partnerships and tie down your risk and keep your cash investment lower and drive your return on capital employed.
Speaker #1: So, a really good example of following the market with our model rather than speculating. So, what are the themes of those successful sites? And I'll allow you to read these in the packs in detail.
Speaker #1: But I'll call a few of these out. So, where we've got that strong regional demand. Something I'll come back to a little bit later on.
Speaker #1: Concluding our land deals back to back with the partners. We've got to make sure that when we expense our capital and capital flows out, the partner is ready to give us that capital back and make sure those sites sit in a capital-like fashion on the balance sheet.
Adam Daniels: Concluding our land deals back to back with the partners. We have got to make sure that when we expense our capital and capital flows out, the partner is ready to give us that capital back and make sure those sites sit in a capital-light fashion on the balance sheet. The locations and the proximity to infrastructure that our partners want, clearly very important. Standard house types, clear tenure strategy, and manageable complexity of infrastructure. We do not want to be spending millions of pounds on infrastructure going out unless the partner is there working with us to deliver those sites. So a key set of site characteristics that are now embedded into the investment committee decisions that we make and in our controls of new site delivery. So an example of a weaker site. This site is in Southern England. It was bought in April 2021.
Adam Daniels: Concluding our land deals back to back with the partners. We have got to make sure that when we expense our capital and capital flows out, the partner is ready to give us that capital back and make sure those sites sit in a capital-light fashion on the balance sheet. The locations and the proximity to infrastructure that our partners want, clearly very important. Standard house types, clear tenure strategy, and manageable complexity of infrastructure.
Speaker #1: The locations and the proximity to infrastructure that our partners want clearly very important. And standard house types, clear tenure strategy, and manageable complexity of infrastructure.
Speaker #1: And we don't want to be spending millions of pounds on infrastructure going out unless the partner's there working with us to deliver those sites.
Adam Daniels: We do not want to be spending millions of pounds on infrastructure going out unless the partner is there working with us to deliver those sites. So a key set of site characteristics that are now embedded into the investment committee decisions that we make and in our controls of new site delivery. So an example of a weaker site. This site is in Southern England. It was bought in April 2021.
Speaker #1: So, a key set of site characteristics that are now embedded into the investment committee decisions that we make and in our controls of new site delivery.
Speaker #1: So, an example of a weaker site. This site's in southern England. It was bought in April '21. When we converted to partnership, there was an attempt to convert this site into a partnerships-type scheme.
Adam Daniels: When we converted to partnership, there was an attempt to convert this site into a partnerships type scheme. You can see how the tenures were adjusted. This would originally have been an open market site with Section 106. When we flipped into partnerships, there was an attempt to try and move this into a partnerships tenure mix. The challenges in this part of the country are very high open market average selling prices, which do not sit as well alongside additionality affordable and Section 106. The second issue, we were making very substantial land payments, GBP 66.3 million of cash tie-up on this site at one time, and that cash is going out without income coming from our partners. You have got a big tie-up on the balance sheet, and that is taking longer to recover.
Adam Daniels: When we converted to partnership, there was an attempt to convert this site into a partnerships type scheme. You can see how the tenures were adjusted. This would originally have been an open market site with Section 106. When we flipped into partnerships, there was an attempt to try and move this into a partnerships tenure mix. The challenges in this part of the country are very high open market average selling prices, which do not sit as well alongside additionality affordable and Section 106. The second issue, we were making very substantial land payments, GBP 66.3 million of cash tie-up on this site at one time, and that cash is going out without income coming from our partners. You have got a big tie-up on the balance sheet, and that is taking longer to recover.
Speaker #1: You can see how the tenures were adjusted. So, this would originally have been an open market site with section 106. When we flipped into partnerships, there was an attempt to try and move this into a partnerships tenure mix.
Speaker #1: The challenges in this part of the country are very, very high open market average selling prices. Which do not sit as well alongside additionality affordable and section 106.
Speaker #1: A second issue we're making very substantial land payments, 66.3 million pound of cash type on this site at one time. And that cash is going out without income coming from our partners.
Speaker #1: And so, you've got a big tie-up on the balance sheet. And that's taking longer to recover. And as you've seen through those market conditions, because the way the partner deal was structured, because the land payment terms didn't match the outflows, and because the exposure to that high value open market sales price margin has declined quite rapidly, through that three-year period.
Adam Daniels: As you have seen through those market conditions, because the way the partner deal was structured, because the land payment terms did not match the outflows, and because the exposure to that high-value open market sales price, margin has declined quite rapidly through that three-year period. This is one of those sites in that gray section of the pie chart that I talked about earlier, that is holding us back and really not letting us show off the quality returns that this business can make. So inconsistent site level execution, implementing the model effectively, getting the right commercial terms with our partners, and making the operating model more efficient. One I will draw your attention to is this over-speculative land positions. We will follow the market and not speculate. We will buy land that is in the right locations and that has got the right amount of partner and open market interest.
Adam Daniels: As you have seen through those market conditions, because the way the partner deal was structured, because the land payment terms did not match the outflows, and because the exposure to that high-value open market sales price, margin has declined quite rapidly through that three-year period. This is one of those sites in that gray section of the pie chart that I talked about earlier, that is holding us back and really not letting us show off the quality returns that this business can make. So inconsistent site level execution, implementing the model effectively, getting the right commercial terms with our partners, and making the operating model more efficient.
Speaker #1: And this is one of those sites in that grey section of the pie chart that I talked about earlier, that is holding us back and really not letting us show off the quality returns that this business can make.
Speaker #1: So, inconsistent site-level execution. Implementing the model effectively. Getting the right commercial terms with our partners. And making the operating model more efficient. And one I'll draw your attention to is this over-speculative land positions.
Adam Daniels: One I will draw your attention to is this over-speculative land positions. We will follow the market and not speculate. We will buy land that is in the right locations and that has got the right amount of partner and open market interest.
Speaker #1: We will follow the market and not speculate. We will buy land that's in the right locations and that's got the right amount of partner and open market interest.
Speaker #1: So, just an example of what that over-speculation on land can lead to. So, it's a site we bought previously. It's 2,000 plus units. Purchase price were over 100 million pound.
Adam Daniels: Just an example of what that over-speculation on land can lead to. It is a site we bought previously. It is 2,000 plus units, purchase price of over GBP 100 million and large infrastructure costs, so a big investment for the business. It is a cracking site, very high quality site, great location, very good price paid. But we paid GBP 30 million of land payments out in the first period of time before we secured our partner deal. So we speculated that we will buy this site and a partner will be there to take a portion of it for us, and we will be able to back off some of that investment into a partner, which we eventually have been able to. But the gap between that investment and the income has been too long.
Adam Daniels: Just an example of what that over-speculation on land can lead to. It is a site we bought previously. It is 2,000 plus units, purchase price of over GBP 100 million and large infrastructure costs, so a big investment for the business. It is a cracking site, very high quality site, great location, very good price paid. But we paid GBP 30 million of land payments out in the first period of time before we secured our partner deal. So we speculated that we will buy this site and a partner will be there to take a portion of it for us, and we will be able to back off some of that investment into a partner, which we eventually have been able to. But the gap between that investment and the income has been too long.
Speaker #1: And large infrastructure costs. So, a big investment for the business. It's a cracking site. Very high quality site. Great location. Very good price paid.
Speaker #1: But we pay 30 million pound of land payments out in the first period of time before we secured our partner deal. So, we speculated that we'll buy this site and a partner will be there to take a portion of it for us.
Speaker #1: And we'll be able to back off some of that investment into a partner. Which we eventually have been able to. But the gap between that investment and the income has been too long.
Speaker #1: So, we've had 30 million pound of investment and balance sheet drag before the time at which we've been able to bring the partner income in.
Adam Daniels: We have had GBP 30 million investment and balance sheet drag before the time at which we have been able to bring the partner income in. We do this site exactly the same in the future in relation to this type of site, the quality of the scheme, et cetera, but we would pair these land payments to stages at which we would receive capital. You would not conclude this site until your partner is contracted on their side and that you had guarantee of inflow. Then you would match your partner payments to your land payments out to keep that capital line much smoother. You still have money invested here, which is fine, but not to the scale or the values that we have seen in this example.
Adam Daniels: We have had GBP 30 million investment and balance sheet drag before the time at which we have been able to bring the partner income in. We do this site exactly the same in the future in relation to this type of site, the quality of the scheme, et cetera, but we would pair these land payments to stages at which we would receive capital. You would not conclude this site until your partner is contracted on their side and that you had guarantee of inflow. Then you would match your partner payments to your land payments out to keep that capital line much smoother. You still have money invested here, which is fine, but not to the scale or the values that we have seen in this example.
Speaker #1: So, we do this site exactly the same in the future in relation to this type of site. The quality of the scheme, et cetera.
Speaker #1: But we would pair these land payments to stages at which we would receive capital. So, you would not conclude this site until your partner was contracted on their side and that you had guarantee of inflow.
Speaker #1: And then you'd match your partner payments to your land payments out to keep that capital line much smoother. You'd still have money invested here, which is fine.
Speaker #1: But not to the scale or the values that we've seen in this example. OK. So, when I was pulling together this section of the presentation, I asked I wanted to pull together what is a picture-perfect Vistry site.
Adam Daniels: When I was pulling together this section of the presentation, I wanted to pull together what is a picture-perfect Vistry site. I was going to create an invented example, so I could just talk you through the sort of things we will look through in a scheme. But a number of weeks ago, I visited a site in Crewe. I think it showed off exactly what this mixed tenure model can do and how it will achieve this. This is Crewe, a town in northwest of England. Extremely well-located town. This is on the motorway network. As you can see, very close to the M6. Great transport links up and down the country. Trains into London and trains into Liverpool and Manchester, so very well connected.
Adam Daniels: When I was pulling together this section of the presentation, I wanted to pull together what is a picture-perfect Vistry site. I was going to create an invented example, so I could just talk you through the sort of things we will look through in a scheme. But a number of weeks ago, I visited a site in Crewe. I think it showed off exactly what this mixed tenure model can do and how it will achieve this. This is Crewe, a town in northwest of England. Extremely well-located town. This is on the motorway network. As you can see, very close to the M6. Great transport links up and down the country.
Speaker #1: And I was going to create a sort of an invented example. So, I could just talk you through the sort of things we'll look for in a scheme.
Speaker #1: But a number of weeks ago, I visited a site in Crewe. And I think it showed off exactly what this mixed tenure model can do and how it will achieve this.
Speaker #1: So, this is Crewe. Town in sort of northwest of England. Extremely well-located town. So, this is on the motorway network. As you can see, very close to the M6.
Speaker #1: Great transport links up and down the country. Trains into London and trains into Liverpool and Manchester. So, very well connected. So, if you're in any tenure, if you're affordable, PRS or open market, you can get around.
Adam Daniels: Trains into London and trains into Liverpool and Manchester, so very well connected.If you are in any tenure, if you are affordable, PRS or open market, you can get around, you can commute, you have got access to the motorway network. Then we look at Crewe itself and where the site is located.
Adam Daniels: If you are in any tenure, if you are affordable, PRS or open market, you can get around, you can commute, you have got access to the motorway network. Then we look at Crewe itself and where the site is located. Our site is on the left-hand side of the corner here. You can see that it is located in the top left-hand corner. And we are very well connected to a number of areas you want to be in a mixed tenure model. It has got education close by. It has got leisure facilities, very good employment opportunities, and not far from the train station. All three tenures would want to have some reliance on that sort of infrastructure, those semi-urban locations. Really shifting the focus into semi-urban and urban locations, less exposure to those more rural geographies we may have operated in in the past. This is the site itself.
Speaker #1: You can commute. You've got access to the motorway network. Then we look at Crewe itself and where the site's located. So, our site is in the left-hand side of the corner here.
Adam Daniels: Our site is on the left-hand side of the corner here. You can see that it is located in the top left-hand corner. And we are very well connected to a number of areas you want to be in a mixed tenure model. It has got education close by. It has got leisure facilities, very good employment opportunities, and not far from the train station. All three tenures would want to have some reliance on that sort of infrastructure, those semi-urban locations. Really shifting the focus into semi-urban and urban locations, less exposure to those more rural geographies we may have operated in in the past. This is the site itself.
Speaker #1: You can see that it's located in the top left-hand corner. And we've very well connected to a number of areas you want to be in a mixed tenure model.
Speaker #1: It's got education, close by. It's got sort of leisure facilities. Very good employment opportunities. And not far from the train station. And all three tenures would want to have some reliance on that sort of infrastructure.
Speaker #1: Those semi-urban locations. So, really shifting the focus into semi-urban and urban locations, less exposure to those more rural geographies we may have operated in in the past.
Speaker #1: This is the site itself. So, circa 450 units. Other developers on this site as well. And we're going to concentrate on this parcel in the top left-hand corner just to give you some examples.
Adam Daniels: Circa 450 units. Other developers on this site as well. We are going to concentrate on this parcel in the top left-hand corner, just to give you some examples. 125 homes in this parcel. A few things that I want you to take away. Number one, the simplicity and consistency of the house types. You would not tell from this plan, apart from perhaps some detail around the roundabout as you come into the site, which tenure each of those plots were. They are all the same house types. There are nine house types on this site, and they are the same house types that the affordable provider wants and that our private customers want. It gives you that flexibility to move the model as you need to, as you build through and market conditions change. The left-hand side is private.
Adam Daniels: Circa 450 units. Other developers on this site as well. We are going to concentrate on this parcel in the top left-hand corner, just to give you some examples. 125 homes in this parcel.
Speaker #1: So, 125 homes in this parcel. A few things that I want you to take away. Number one, the simplicity and consistency of the house types.
Adam Daniels: A few things that I want you to take away. Number one, the simplicity and consistency of the house types. You would not tell from this plan, apart from perhaps some detail around the roundabout as you come into the site, which tenure each of those plots were. They are all the same house types. There are nine house types on this site, and they are the same house types that the affordable provider wants and that our private customers want. It gives you that flexibility to move the model as you need to, as you build through and market conditions change. The left-hand side is private.
Speaker #1: You would not tell from this plan. Apart from perhaps some detail around the roundabout as you come into the site, which tenure each of those plots were.
Speaker #1: They're all the same house types. There's nine house types on this site. And they're the same house types, but the affordable provider wants and that are private customers want.
Speaker #1: And so, it gives you that flexibility to move the model as you need to, as you build through and market conditions change. The left-hand side is private.
Speaker #1: What this means is that you can invest in this private site without too much WIP exposure. You only need to build these frontage plots.
Adam Daniels: What this means is that you can invest in this private site without too much WIP exposure. You only need to build these frontage plots, and you can get to your mixed tenure site further down the bottom. The other advantage of this layout is if you start on this site and sales are not as good as you expect or the market changes, you could sell this little parcel to a partner. Bearing in mind, it is the same product as the second stage. In this example, in this market, this site has sold at one a week for the last 4 weeks, and that is before opening the show home. We are selling from a cabin on this site, slightly off here. We open the show home this weekend. You can see you can generate a good sales pace with simple product, well-priced, in good locations.
Adam Daniels: What this means is that you can invest in this private site without too much WIP exposure. You only need to build these frontage plots, and you can get to your mixed tenure site further down the bottom.
Speaker #1: And you can get to your mixed tenure site further down the bottom. The other advantage of this layer is, if you start on this site and sales aren't as good as you expect, or the market changes, you could sell this little parcel to a partner bearing in mind it's the same product as the second stage.
Adam Daniels: The other advantage of this layout is if you start on this site and sales are not as good as you expect or the market changes, you could sell this little parcel to a partner. Bearing in mind, it is the same product as the second stage. In this example, in this market, this site has sold at one a week for the last 4 weeks, and that is before opening the show home. We are selling from a cabin on this site, slightly off here. We open the show home this weekend. You can see you can generate a good sales pace with simple product, well-priced, in good locations.
Speaker #1: In this example, in this market, this site is sold at one a week for the last four weeks. And that's before opening the show home.
Speaker #1: We're selling from a cabin on this site, slightly off here. We opened the show home this weekend. And so, you can see you can generate a good sales pace for simple product, well-priced, in good locations.
Speaker #1: In addition, you've got the second part of the site, which is for additionality affordable in section 106. And this area, you can build as quickly as you can, bringing in your road and build those plots at pace.
Adam Daniels: In addition, we have got the second part of the site, which is for additionality affordable and Section 106. This area you can build as quickly as you can, bringing in your road and build those plots at pace. This is all timber frame coming out of our factory not far away in Warrington. This area is cash generative. You get onto site, you build this part at pace, generate cash, and that funds the private near the front, which is selling very well. In line with that, you keep this tenure flexibility, simple house types, all the same for the tenures, so you can move between them as you wish. So a really, really good example of the sites we should be targeting. Right product, right location, and right tenure mix with flexibility to navigate the model and the market as we move forward.
Adam Daniels: In addition, we have got the second part of the site, which is for additionality affordable and Section 106. This area you can build as quickly as you can, bringing in your road and build those plots at pace. This is all timber frame coming out of our factory not far away in Warrington. This area is cash generative.
Speaker #1: This is all timber frame, coming out of our factory, not far away in Warrington. And this area is cash generative. So, you get onto site, you build this pace, generate cash.
Adam Daniels: You get onto site, you build this part at pace, generate cash, and that funds the private near the front, which is selling very well. In line with that, you keep this tenure flexibility, simple house types, all the same for the tenures, so you can move between them as you wish. So a really, really good example of the sites we should be targeting. Right product, right location, and right tenure mix with flexibility to navigate the model and the market as we move forward.
Speaker #1: And that funds the private nearer the front, which is selling very well. And in line with that, you keep this tenure flexibility simple house types all the same for the tenures.
Speaker #1: So, you can move between them as you wish. So, a really, really good example of the sites we should be targeting: right product, right location, and right tenure mix with flexibility to navigate the model and the market as we move forward.
Speaker #1: So, summary of the route and branch review. Very strong evidence the mixed tenure works. And it can provide those excellent returns that we expect.
Adam Daniels: A summary of the root and branch review. Very strong evidence that mixed tenure works, and it can provide those excellent returns that we expect. The rapid M&A caused us to have some challenges, but things here are absolutely fixable. Although market headwinds exposed some weaknesses, we could also evidence that market headwinds we navigated well in a lot of areas of the business. Mixed tenure lowers that upfront capital and accelerates cash recovery. Although site economics vary sharply, we need to manage that land portfolio in a better way. The better sites align partners funding tenure and delivery, and using a standard tenure flexible product is certainly the way we should operate. As we move forward, we will become smaller, more selective, and capital light, improving the quality of the business as we focus on the best partners and the best returns.
Adam Daniels: A summary of the root and branch review. Very strong evidence that mixed tenure works, and it can provide those excellent returns that we expect. The rapid M&A caused us to have some challenges, but things here are absolutely fixable. Although market headwinds exposed some weaknesses, we could also evidence that market headwinds we navigated well in a lot of areas of the business. Mixed tenure lowers that upfront capital and accelerates cash recovery. Although site economics vary sharply, we need to manage that land portfolio in a better way.
Speaker #1: The rapid M&A caused us some challenges. But things here are absolutely fixable. And although market headwinds expose some weaknesses, we could also evidence that market headwinds we navigated well in a lot of areas of the business.
Speaker #1: Mixed tenure lowers that front capital and accelerates cash recovery. And although site economics vary sharply, we need to manage that land portfolio in a better way.
Speaker #1: The better sites align partners, funding, tenure, and delivery. And using a standard tenure flexible product is certainly the way we should operate. So, as we move forward, we'll become smaller, more selective, and capital light, improving the quality of the business as we focus on the best partners and the best returns.
Adam Daniels: The better sites align partners funding tenure and delivery, and using a standard tenure flexible product is certainly the way we should operate. As we move forward, we will become smaller, more selective, and capital light, improving the quality of the business as we focus on the best partners and the best returns.
Speaker #1: And part of the financial impact that Tim will talk about later is that we're adjusting our strategies in the existing land bank to fit to fix this, to fit this model, and to accelerate cash generation and improve deleveraging.
Adam Daniels: Part of the financial impact that Tim will talk about later is that we are adjusting our strategies in the existing land bank to fit this model and to accelerate cash generation and improve deleveraging. I am going to move into strategic evolution. The opportunity. The market need for what we do remains strong. There is great market need for all three tenures that we operate in, and the model gives us clear advantages. Established partner relationships and an integrated mixed tenure delivery model give us that differentiated proposition that we want. We can show that attractive returns can be unlocked. We have an extremely attractive opportunity to create value by replicating that purple part of the pie chart across the business. We do not have a direct competitor in this space.
Adam Daniels: Part of the financial impact that Tim will talk about later is that we are adjusting our strategies in the existing land bank to fit this model and to accelerate cash generation and improve deleveraging. I am going to move into strategic evolution. The opportunity. The market need for what we do remains strong. There is great market need for all three tenures that we operate in, and the model gives us clear advantages. Established partner relationships and an integrated mixed tenure delivery model give us that differentiated proposition that we want. We can show that attractive returns can be unlocked. We have an extremely attractive opportunity to create value by replicating that purple part of the pie chart across the business. We do not have a direct competitor in this space.
Speaker #1: So, I'm going to move into strategic evolution. So, the opportunity. The market need for what we do remains strong. There's great market need for all three tenures that we operate in.
Speaker #1: And the model gives us clear advantages. Established partner relationships and integrated mixed tenure delivery model give us that differentiation of proposition that we want.
Speaker #1: And we can show that attractive returns can be unlocked. We have an extremely attractive opportunity to create value by replicating that purple part of the pie chart across the business.
Speaker #1: We do not have a direct competitor in this space. There's no other organization with the relationships and the quality of teams that we have able to deliver this at scale pace and quality.
Adam Daniels: There is no other organization with the relationships and the quality of teams that we have able to deliver this at scale, pace, and quality. So the unique position. We have a differentiated mixed tenure model, attractive structural economics. I am not convinced that the terms we have used in the past are consistently understood. What I feel we are is an expert mixed tenure house builder. So we have a wide array of customers that we can work with. We have a strong open market sales team. We have very good relationships with affordable providers, both for profit and not-for-profit. We have great relationships with local authorities who buy housing, and we have great relationships with PRS providers and investors. So we can be the specialist mixed tenure house builder who really brings those customers through, diversifies the risk across those various areas of the market.
Adam Daniels: There is no other organization with the relationships and the quality of teams that we have able to deliver this at scale, pace, and quality. So the unique position. We have a differentiated mixed tenure model, attractive structural economics. I am not convinced that the terms we have used in the past are consistently understood. What I feel we are is an expert mixed tenure house builder. So we have a wide array of customers that we can work with. We have a strong open market sales team.
Speaker #1: So, the unique position. We've got a differentiated mixed tenure model. Attractive structural economics. But I'm not convinced that the terms we've used in the past are consistently understood.
Speaker #1: What I feel we are is an expert mixed tenure house builder. So, we have a wider array of customers that we can work with.
Speaker #1: We've got a strong open market sales team. We've got very good relationships with affordable providers, both for profit and not-for-profit. We've got great relationships with local authorities who buy housing.
Adam Daniels: We have very good relationships with affordable providers, both for profit and not-for-profit. We have great relationships with local authorities who buy housing, and we have great relationships with PRS providers and investors. So we can be the specialist mixed tenure house builder who really brings those customers through, diversifies the risk across those various areas of the market.
Speaker #1: And we've got great relationships with PRS providers and investors. So, we can be the specialist mixed tenure house builder who really brings those customers through diversifies the risk across those various areas of the market.
Speaker #1: We want strong operational performance, high quality, tight controls, and consistency. And importantly, greater selectivity to improve the quality of returns. So, a piece of work we did to work out what type of business we want to be as we move forward.
Adam Daniels: We want strong operational performance, high quality, tight controls, and consistency, and importantly, greater selectivity to improve the quality of returns. So a piece of work we did to work out what type of business we want to be as we move forward. On the left-hand side, we did a detailed assessment of what the volumes could be of a model of our type. So this said, let us look at all the areas, RPs, local authorities, private rent sector, and open market, and let us assess how much volume Vistry as an organization could do. We looked at the RPs and said most RPs only want to work with one developer as 25% of their output. We looked at local authorities in a similar way, and PRS sector in a similar way.
Adam Daniels: We want strong operational performance, high quality, tight controls, and consistency, and importantly, greater selectivity to improve the quality of returns. So a piece of work we did to work out what type of business we want to be as we move forward. On the left-hand side, we did a detailed assessment of what the volumes could be of a model of our type. So this said, let us look at all the areas, RPs, local authorities, private rent sector, and open market, and let us assess how much volume Vistry as an organization could do. We looked at the RPs and said most RPs only want to work with one developer as 25% of their output. We looked at local authorities in a similar way, and PRS sector in a similar way.
Speaker #1: On the left-hand side, we did a detailed assessment of what the volumes could be of a model of our type. So, this said, let's look at all the areas: RPs, local authorities, private rental sector, and open market.
Speaker #1: And let's assess how much volume Vistry as an organization could do. And we looked at the RPs and said, most RPs only want to work with one developer as 25% of their output.
Speaker #1: We looked at local authorities in a similar way. And PRS sector in a similar way. And we worked out that these are the scales at which a business of our size could theoretically operate.
Adam Daniels: We worked out that these are the scales at which a business of our size could theoretically operate. We then looked at open market and saw how we could sell alongside our additionality, what is the absorption capacity, and we assessed that 7,000 to 8,000 units per annum of open market. So the theoretical addressable opportunity, based on the data, based on detailed review of our sector, shows that 19,000 per annum is the theoretical addressable opportunity. We then sat back and said, "That may be what you could get to, but where can we operate to get the real quality of returns that we want?" So we went through our partners and we focused on the attractiveness of those partners, how they behave, how they work with us, how they treat us, the quality of the deals we are able to do.
Adam Daniels: We worked out that these are the scales at which a business of our size could theoretically operate. We then looked at open market and saw how we could sell alongside our additionality, what is the absorption capacity, and we assessed that 7,000 to 8,000 units per annum of open market. So the theoretical addressable opportunity, based on the data, based on detailed review of our sector, shows that 19,000 per annum is the theoretical addressable opportunity.
Speaker #1: We then looked at open market and saw how we could sell alongside our additionality, what is the absorption capacity, and we assessed that 7 to 8,000 units per annum of open market.
Speaker #1: So, the theoretical addressable opportunity based on the data based on detailed review of our sector shows that 19,000 per annum is the theoretical addressable opportunity.
Speaker #1: We then sat back and said, that may be what you could get to. But where can we operate to get the real quality of returns that we want?
Adam Daniels: We then sat back and said, "That may be what you could get to, but where can we operate to get the real quality of returns that we want?" So we went through our partners and we focused on the attractiveness of those partners, how they behave, how they work with us, how they treat us, the quality of the deals we are able to do.
Speaker #1: So, we went through our partners. And we focused on the attractiveness of those partners, how they behave, how they work with us, how they treat us, the quality of the deals we're able to do.
Speaker #1: We looked at pipeline. And we looked at financial resilience. And through that assessment, we said that 7,000 of the 12,000 units are really going to drive that quality of return that we want to see, are really going to let us achieve that purple part of the pie chart I showed you earlier.
Adam Daniels: We looked at pipeline and we looked at financial resilience. Through that assessment, we said that 7,000 of the 12,000 units are really going to drive that quality of return that we want to see, are really going to let us achieve that purple part of the pie chart I showed you earlier. We then looked at open market selection, went through the regions, saw where the demand was, and calculated that 5,000 units is a good target for us on open market. Focused on the right quality areas where our product sits the best. This has led us to this revised annual target of 12,000 per annum. As you can see, we are focusing on the real quality part of the market.
Adam Daniels: We looked at pipeline and we looked at financial resilience. Through that assessment, we said that 7,000 of the 12,000 units are really going to drive that quality of return that we want to see, are really going to let us achieve that purple part of the pie chart I showed you earlier. We then looked at open market selection, went through the regions, saw where the demand was, and calculated that 5,000 units is a good target for us on open market. Focused on the right quality areas where our product sits the best. This has led us to this revised annual target of 12,000 per annum. As you can see, we are focusing on the real quality part of the market.
Speaker #1: We then looked at open market selection, went through the regions, saw where the demand was, and calculated that 5,000 units is a good target for us on open market, focused on the right quality areas where our product sits the best.
Speaker #1: And this has led us to this revised annual target of 12,000 per annum. But as you can see, we're focusing on the real quality part of the market.
Speaker #1: So, we're taking a two-thirds of the market that we think can deliver the best returns of which 60% will be partnerships pre-sold and 40% will be open market.
Adam Daniels: We are taking two-thirds of the market that we think can deliver the best returns, of which 60% will be partnerships pre-sold and 40% will be open market. I will come on to sales, which is clearly a key part of what we do, and I talked earlier about a great example of effective sales that we have had. We are talking today for the first time about our pure open market sales rates. As you can see from the top left-hand side, we have underwhelmed on open market sales. We have lagged behind the market in the last three or four years. We have had a slight uptick this year because of our discounting, but actually in prior years, been less than 0.4, which is not where you want to be, particularly with a focus on sales pace as a pre-sold mixed tenure business.
Adam Daniels: We are taking two-thirds of the market that we think can deliver the best returns, of which 60% will be partnerships pre-sold and 40% will be open market. I will come on to sales, which is clearly a key part of what we do, and I talked earlier about a great example of effective sales that we have had. We are talking today for the first time about our pure open market sales rates. As you can see from the top left-hand side, we have underwhelmed on open market sales.
Speaker #1: I'll come on to sales, which is clearly a key part of what we do. And I talked earlier about a great example of effective sales that we've had.
Speaker #1: We're talking today for the first time about our pure open market sales rates. And as you can see from the top left-hand side, we have underwhelmed on open market sales.
Speaker #1: We have lagged behind the market in the last three or four years. We've had a slight uptick this year because of our discounting. But actually, in the prior years, it's been less than 0.4, which is not a way you want to be particularly with a focus on sales pace as a pre-sold mixed tenure business.
Adam Daniels: We have lagged behind the market in the last three or four years. We have had a slight uptick this year because of our discounting, but actually in prior years, been less than 0.4, which is not where you want to be, particularly with a focus on sales pace as a pre-sold mixed tenure business.
Speaker #1: So, we're going to change our sales strategy. We're going to target smaller units, maximum size, targeted at 1,500 square foot. Lower ASPs, maximum price point 600,000 pounds, sitting better alongside that pre-sold affordable and additionality.
Adam Daniels: We are going to change our sales strategy. We are going to target smaller units, maximum size targeted at 1,500 square foot. Lower ASPs, maximum price point GBP 600,000, sitting better alongside that pre-sold affordable and additionality. We are going to move for those standardized house types, aiming for 35 standardized house types, but really a core of 12 simple interchangeable house types, a bit like the site in Crewe that I showed you. Targeting the lower end of the market, so building homes that are seen as good value and high quality at lower end of the market. To do that, we are going to simplify the sales branding. We have got three sales brand at the moment, and we will retire Bovis and Countryside and invest in and create a fantastic sales brand in Linden.
Adam Daniels: We are going to change our sales strategy. We are going to target smaller units, maximum size targeted at 1,500 square foot. Lower ASPs, maximum price point GBP 600,000, sitting better alongside that pre-sold affordable and additionality. We are going to move for those standardized house types, aiming for 35 standardized house types, but really a core of 12 simple interchangeable house types, a bit like the site in Crewe that I showed you. Targeting the lower end of the market, so building homes that are seen as good value and high quality at lower end of the market. To do that, we are going to simplify the sales branding. We have got three sales brand at the moment, and we will retire Bovis and Countryside and invest in and create a fantastic sales brand in Linden.
Speaker #1: We're going to move for those standardized house types aiming for 35 standardized house types, but really a core of 12 simple interchangeable house types a bit like the site and crew that I showed you.
Speaker #1: And targeting the lower end of the market. So, building homes that are seen as good value and high quality, but lower end of the market.
Speaker #1: So, to do that, we're going to simplify the sales branding. We've got three sales brand at the moment. And we'll retire bogus and countryside.
Speaker #1: And invest in and create a fantastic sales brand in Linden. It's already known for the type of product we want to build. And we'll continue to improve that brand and make it a real market leader refocused as a sensibly priced modern affordable energy efficient private sales offering.
Adam Daniels: It is already known for the type of product we want to build, and we will continue to improve that brand and make it a real market leader, refocused as a sensibly priced, modern, affordable, energy-efficient private sales offering. These changes, as we get through the next few years, will allow us to get to this 0.6 open market sales rate that we would expect in a model like ours. I will talk a little bit about geographies. On the left-hand side of this slide is our historical geography. You can see it is relatively mixed, bit of concentration in the center of the country, but relatively mixed. On the right-hand side is where we will move the forecast geography to. You can see more focus in the Midlands and the West and into the North, with still substantial coverage in the Southwest and in London.
Adam Daniels: It is already known for the type of product we want to build, and we will continue to improve that brand and make it a real market leader, refocused as a sensibly priced, modern, affordable, energy-efficient private sales offering. These changes, as we get through the next few years, will allow us to get to this 0.6 open market sales rate that we would expect in a model like ours. I will talk a little bit about geographies. On the left-hand side of this slide is our historical geography.
Speaker #1: And these changes, as we get through the next few years, will allow us to get to this 0.6 open market sales rate that we would expect in a model like ours.
Speaker #1: So, I'll talk a little bit about geographies. On the left-hand side of this slide is our historical geography. You can see it's relatively mixed, a bit of concentration in the center of the country, but relatively mixed.
Adam Daniels: You can see it is relatively mixed, bit of concentration in the center of the country, but relatively mixed. On the right-hand side is where we will move the forecast geography to. You can see more focus in the Midlands and the West and into the North, with still substantial coverage in the Southwest and in London.
Speaker #1: On the right-hand side is where we'll move the forecast geography to. So, you can see more focus in the Midlands and the West and into the North.
Speaker #1: We're still substantial coverage in the Southwest and in London. And as part of this change, we'll have a reduced exposure to the areas in the south of the country that are underperformed, as we may have found challenges in executing that mixed tenure model.
Adam Daniels: As part of this change, we will have a reduced exposure to the areas in the south of the country that have underperformed, as we found challenges in executing that mixed tenure model, and we will shift Southeast England to a fully pre-sold partner-funded model. Over the next few years, we will exit private sales in the Southeast of England, and we will be focusing on what are some very large partners down there and doing a number of all affordable or all PRS schemes in that part of the country to lower our risk and improve our return on capital employed in the south. I want to touch on London, as I mentioned it a little bit earlier. We have strong belief in the long-term success of London and demand for our mixed tenure model.
Adam Daniels: As part of this change, we will have a reduced exposure to the areas in the south of the country that have underperformed, as we found challenges in executing that mixed tenure model, and we will shift Southeast England to a fully pre-sold partner-funded model. Over the next few years, we will exit private sales in the Southeast of England, and we will be focusing on what are some very large partners down there and doing a number of all affordable or all PRS schemes in that part of the country to lower our risk and improve our return on capital employed in the south. I want to touch on London, as I mentioned it a little bit earlier. We have strong belief in the long-term success of London and demand for our mixed tenure model.
Speaker #1: And we'll shift Southeast England to a fully pre-sold partner funded model. So, the next few years, we'll exit private sales in the Southeast England.
Speaker #1: Southeast of England. And we'll be focusing on what are some very large partners down there and doing a number of all affordable or all PRS schemes in that part of the country to lower our risk and improve our return on capital employed in the South.
Speaker #1: I want to touch on London as I mentioned it a little bit earlier. We have strong belief in the long-term success of London and demand for our mixed tenure model.
Speaker #1: We've grown that business to 2,000 units per year. And our plan now will be to hold 2,000 units per year through the next five years of the plan, but to really reduce the capital allocation that we've got in that part of the business to between 100 and 150 million pounds.
Adam Daniels: We have grown that business to 2,000 units per year, and our plan now will be to hold 2,000 units per year through the next 5 years of the plan, but to really reduce the capital allocation that we have got in that part of the business to between GBP 100 million and GBP 150 million. So a more capital efficient, sensibly sized business in London. At the moment, London is 90% pre-sold. For the short to medium term, we expect that to continue. So a low risk, less exposure to private sales, well pre-sold working with our partners. To make this business more efficient and drive more profitability, we are going to make it more efficient from an overhead perspective, and we are going to split London into east and west and move from three regions into two.
Adam Daniels: We have grown that business to 2,000 units per year, and our plan now will be to hold 2,000 units per year through the next 5 years of the plan, but to really reduce the capital allocation that we have got in that part of the business to between GBP 100 million and GBP 150 million. So a more capital efficient, sensibly sized business in London. At the moment, London is 90% pre-sold. For the short to medium term, we expect that to continue. So a low risk, less exposure to private sales, well pre-sold working with our partners. To make this business more efficient and drive more profitability, we are going to make it more efficient from an overhead perspective, and we are going to split London into east and west and move from three regions into two.
Speaker #1: So, a more capital efficient, sensibly sized business in London. At the moment, London is 90% pre-sold. And for the short to medium term, we expect that to continue.
Speaker #1: So, a low risk, less exposure to private sales, well pre-sold, working with our partners. And to make this business more efficient and drive more profitability, we're going to make it more efficient from an overhead perspective.
Speaker #1: And we're going to split London into East and West and move from three regions into two. So, the combination of a more profitable London, and a less capital intensive London, at the right size, will give us a really good position in London.
Adam Daniels: The combination of a more profitable London and a less capital intensive London at the right size will give us a really good position in London, and it will continue to remain strategically attractive. As we execute the model into the future, as I said earlier, we will flex the 10 years based on the market conditions, follow the market. If we start to see open market conditions improve in London, I would expect us to drive at more open market in the future. I will just touch on South East, as I mentioned earlier. The interplay between high value open market and partnerships is causing a challenge. High value open market is not selling at the pace required when you have got additionality affordable. You have also got high land values and infrastructure costs.
Adam Daniels: The combination of a more profitable London and a less capital intensive London at the right size will give us a really good position in London, and it will continue to remain strategically attractive. As we execute the model into the future, as I said earlier, we will flex the 10 years based on the market conditions, follow the market. If we start to see open market conditions improve in London, I would expect us to drive at more open market in the future. I will just touch on South East, as I mentioned earlier. The interplay between high value open market and partnerships is causing a challenge. High value open market is not selling at the pace required when you have got additionality affordable. You have also got high land values and infrastructure costs.
Speaker #1: And it will continue to remain strategically attractive. And as we execute the model into the future, as I said earlier, we'll flex the 10 years based on the market conditions, follow the market.
Speaker #1: If we start to see open market conditions improving London, I would expect us to drive at more open market in the future. And I'll just touch on Southeast, as I mentioned earlier.
Speaker #1: So, the interplay between high value open market and partnerships is causing a challenge. High value open market is not selling at a pace required when you've got additionality affordable.
Speaker #1: You've also got high land values and infrastructure costs. So, when you start a site, it's very difficult to keep that capital low and keep your return on capital employed up.
Adam Daniels: When you start a site, it is very difficult to keep that capital low and keep your return on capital employed up. The South tends to move downwards first in poor market conditions and come back last when it improves. Exiting that part of the business will make us more reliable. We will have a region down there focused purely on 100% pre-sold schemes. How are we going to achieve this over the period? We will sell some land. We will have some increased discount on open market sales, and we will bulk sell to partners. We have taken a charge in 2026 to allow us to have the discount to achieve the things on the left-hand side. This will bring forward GBP 200 million of incremental cash generation over the next 2 years.
Adam Daniels: When you start a site, it is very difficult to keep that capital low and keep your return on capital employed up. The South tends to move downwards first in poor market conditions and come back last when it improves. Exiting that part of the business will make us more reliable. We will have a region down there focused purely on 100% pre-sold schemes. How are we going to achieve this over the period? We will sell some land. We will have some increased discount on open market sales, and we will bulk sell to partners. We have taken a charge in 2026 to allow us to have the discount to achieve the things on the left-hand side. This will bring forward GBP 200 million of incremental cash generation over the next 2 years.
Speaker #1: The South tends to move downwards first in poor market conditions and come back last when it improves. And so, exiting that part of the business makes us more reliable.
Speaker #1: And we will have a region down there focused purely on 100% pre-sold schemes. So, how are we going to achieve this over the period?
Speaker #1: We'll sell some land. We'll have some increased discount on open market sales. And we'll bulk sell to partners. And we've taken a charge in 2026 to allow us to have the discount to achieve the things on the left-hand side.
Speaker #1: This will bring forward 200 million pounds of incremental cash generation over the next two years. So, not only will we achieve what we'd already expected, a further 200 million pounds in those first two years.
Adam Daniels: Not only will we achieve what we had already expected, a further GBP 200 million in those first 2 years. Once we have concluded that piece of work, we will clearly be able to operate with lighter overheads in that part of the country. So there is circa 2,700 plots to exit. All of the sites in this part of the country are in this part of the gray wedge. If we can exit this at pace and move away from this part of the country that is underperforming for us and focus on the right sites in this area, we expect the balance of this pie chart to change substantially over that period of time. This will significantly reduce the group's risk profile. We want disciplined land acquisition. We want to have a portfolio-led land strategy that looks more widely across the geographies. Stronger investment discipline using our investment committee.
Adam Daniels: Not only will we achieve what we had already expected, a further GBP 200 million in those first 2 years.
Speaker #1: And once we've concluded that piece of work, we'll clearly be able to operate with lighter overheads in that part of the country. So, there's circa 2,700 plots to exit.
Adam Daniels: Once we have concluded that piece of work, we will clearly be able to operate with lighter overheads in that part of the country. So there is circa 2,700 plots to exit. All of the sites in this part of the country are in this part of the gray wedge. If we can exit this at pace and move away from this part of the country that is underperforming for us and focus on the right sites in this area, we expect the balance of this pie chart to change substantially over that period of time. This will significantly reduce the group's risk profile. We want disciplined land acquisition. We want to have a portfolio-led land strategy that looks more widely across the geographies. Stronger investment discipline using our investment committee.
Speaker #1: All of the sites in this part of the country are in this part of the gray wedge. So, if we can exit this at pace and move away from this part of the country that's underperforming for us and focus on the right sites in this area, we expect the balance of this pie chart to change substantially over that period of time.
Speaker #1: And this will significantly reduce the group's risk profile. So, we want disciplined land acquisition. We want to have a portfolio-led land strategy that looks more widely across the geographies.
Speaker #1: Stronger investment discipline using our investment committee or the sites come into me for final sign-off. And the right-sized land bank. So, we can really lighten the balance sheet of this business by moving from the 51,000 plots of owned land we've got now to the 36,000 plots of owned land that we would want.
Adam Daniels: All the sites coming to me for final sign-off, and the right size land bank. We can really lighten the balance sheet of this business by moving from the 51,000 plots of owned land we have now to the 36,000 plots of owned land that we would want. This is how the land bank migrates over the coming years. The blue at the bottom is the land bank run off in the South East, and you can see it retains for a couple of years as you exit that private sale. Volume stays the same for 2 years as you convert to partnerships and exit and do that in FY27 and FY28, and it gradually declines. The red is the balance of those underperforming sites that I showed you on the pie chart earlier.
Adam Daniels: All the sites coming to me for final sign-off, and the right size land bank. We can really lighten the balance sheet of this business by moving from the 51,000 plots of owned land we have now to the 36,000 plots of owned land that we would want. This is how the land bank migrates over the coming years. The blue at the bottom is the land bank run off in the South East, and you can see it retains for a couple of years as you exit that private sale. Volume stays the same for 2 years as you convert to partnerships and exit and do that in FY27 and FY28, and it gradually declines. The red is the balance of those underperforming sites that I showed you on the pie chart earlier.
Speaker #1: And this is how the land bank migrates over the coming years. So, the blue at the bottom is the land bank run-off of the Southeast.
Speaker #1: And you can see it retains for a couple of years as you exit that private sale. So, volume sort of stays the same for two years.
Speaker #1: As you convert to partnerships and exit and do that in FY27 and FY28, and it gradually declines. The red is the balance of those underperforming sites that I showed you on the pie chart earlier.
Speaker #1: So, this section of the business is less than 12% gross margin, has lower row keys, and ties up more cash than you would like.
Adam Daniels: This section of the business is less than 12% gross margin, has lower ROCEs, and ties up more cash than you would like. As you can see, we are working through that over the early part of the five-year plan and reducing our exposure to those sites. That really reassuring part of the pie chart is this purple section in the middle. Land bank of 43,000 units that is performing at those margins we talked about, an average gross margin of 18.5%. You can see that plays a really good part in the business as we go forward. The new land in green is the new sites we add into the plan through that period that we acquire limited exposure in 2027, but clearly that is growing in the future years to give us this blend by FY31 on a volume of 12,000.
Adam Daniels: This section of the business is less than 12% gross margin, has lower ROCEs, and ties up more cash than you would like. As you can see, we are working through that over the early part of the five-year plan and reducing our exposure to those sites. That really reassuring part of the pie chart is this purple section in the middle. Land bank of 43,000 units that is performing at those margins we talked about, an average gross margin of 18.5%.
Speaker #1: But as you can see, we're working through that over the early part of the five-year plan and reducing our exposure to those sites. That really reassuring part of the pie chart is this purple section in the middle.
Speaker #1: The land bank 43,000 units that's performing at those margins we talked about. An average gross margin of 18.5%. And you can see that that plays a really good part in the business as we go forward.
Adam Daniels: You can see that plays a really good part in the business as we go forward. The new land in green is the new sites we add into the plan through that period that we acquire limited exposure in 2027, but clearly that is growing in the future years to give us this blend by FY31 on a volume of 12,000.
Speaker #1: And the new land in green is the new sites we add into the plan through that period that we acquire limited exposure in '27, but clearly that's growing in the future years, to give us this blend by FY31 and the volume of 12,000.
Speaker #1: So, this sheet really explains the evolution of the land bank and how we got confidence that we'll achieve that 12% operating margin in FY31.
Adam Daniels: This sheet really explains the evolution of the land bank and how we have got confidence that we will achieve that 12% operating margin in FY31. A little bit of time on contracting. You can see some of the logos of the people we work with on a week in, week out basis. We have got 150 partners currently in contract with us. A big diverse mix of RPs, PRS providers, and local authorities. Particularly since the SAHP award, a good spike in conversations and negotiations with our partners with GBP 3.4 billion in further value under negotiation across 60 partners. Clearly, huge continued interest for what we do. We maintain those deep partner relationships. Our largest partners account for 47% of our actual contract value. What we want to focus on here is who are the quality partners?
Adam Daniels: This sheet really explains the evolution of the land bank and how we have got confidence that we will achieve that 12% operating margin in FY31. A little bit of time on contracting. You can see some of the logos of the people we work with on a week in, week out basis. We have got 150 partners currently in contract with us. A big diverse mix of RPs, PRS providers, and local authorities. Particularly since the SAHP award, a good spike in conversations and negotiations with our partners with GBP 3.4 billion in further value under negotiation across 60 partners. Clearly, huge continued interest for what we do. We maintain those deep partner relationships. Our largest partners account for 47% of our actual contract value. What we want to focus on here is who are the quality partners?
Speaker #1: A little bit of time on contracting. So, you can see some of the logos of the people we work with on a week in, week out basis.
Speaker #1: And we've got 150 partners currently in contract with us. A big diverse mix of RPs, PRS providers, and local authorities. And particularly since the SHP award, a good spike in conversations and negotiations with our partners, with 3.4 billion in further value under negotiation across 60 partners.
Speaker #1: So, clearly, huge continued interest for what we do. And we maintain those deep partner relationships. Our largest partners account for 47% of our actual contract value.
Speaker #1: So, what we want to focus on here is who are the quality partners? And we need to work on them on a work with them on a repeatable basis, consistently, into the future.
Adam Daniels: We need to work with them on a repeatable basis consistently into the future. What we have been working hard on for the last few months, Stephen and his team, since our July announcement where I talked about having strategic development agreements or framework agreements with partners, is signing a number of our larger partners into strategic development agreements to give us more certainty on volume delivery in the five-year period. We want to focus the business around a smaller number of high quality partners. We will still work with a very large array, but we want the bulk of our work to come with partners we can repeat business with, simpler contracts, simpler commercial terms, easy for us to work at pace. We have executed five of those since July, so very good progress.
Adam Daniels: We need to work with them on a repeatable basis consistently into the future. What we have been working hard on for the last few months, Stephen and his team, since our July announcement where I talked about having strategic development agreements or framework agreements with partners, is signing a number of our larger partners into strategic development agreements to give us more certainty on volume delivery in the five-year period. We want to focus the business around a smaller number of high quality partners. We will still work with a very large array, but we want the bulk of our work to come with partners we can repeat business with, simpler contracts, simpler commercial terms, easy for us to work at pace. We have executed five of those since July, so very good progress.
Speaker #1: And so, what we've been working hard on for the last few months, Stephen and his team, since our July announcement, where I talked about having strategic development agreements or framework agreements with partners, is signing a number of our larger partners into strategic development agreements to give us more certainty on volume delivery in the five-year period.
Speaker #1: So, we want to focus the business around a smaller number of high-quality partners. We'll still work with a very large array, but we want the bulk of our work to come with partners that we can repeat business with, simpler contracts, simpler commercial terms, easy for us to work at pace.
Speaker #1: And we've executed five of those since July. So, very good progress. And we've got 10 more at advanced stage that we expect to sign in the coming months.
Adam Daniels: We have 10 more at advanced stage who we expect to sign in the coming months. Delivery through those partner arrangements will start in October 2026. What this does is gives us 20,000 committed homes over the five-year period with partners who really want to work with Vistry and really want to develop affordable homes, PRS homes with us. You can see the split between RPs, for profit RPs, and PRS providers. This, alongside our award from Homes England of GBP 350 million, absolutely underlines the quality of the business that remains. We would not be getting support like this from our partners or the award from Homes England without continually delivering high quality affordable housing across the country. Vistry Works.
Adam Daniels: We have 10 more at advanced stage who we expect to sign in the coming months. Delivery through those partner arrangements will start in October 2026. What this does is gives us 20,000 committed homes over the five-year period with partners who really want to work with Vistry and really want to develop affordable homes, PRS homes with us. You can see the split between RPs, for profit RPs, and PRS providers. This, alongside our award from Homes England of GBP 350 million, absolutely underlines the quality of the business that remains. We would not be getting support like this from our partners or the award from Homes England without continually delivering high quality affordable housing across the country. Vistry Works.
Speaker #1: And delivery through those partner arrangements will start in October 2026. And what this does is gives us 20,000 committed homes over the five-year period with partners who really want to work with Vistry and really want to develop affordable homes PRS homes with us.
Speaker #1: And you can see the split between RPs for profit RPs and PRS providers. This, alongside our award from Homes England, of 350 million pounds, absolutely underlines the quality of the business that remains.
Speaker #1: We would not be getting the support like this from our partners or the award from Homes England without continually delivering high-quality affordable housing across the country.
Speaker #1: So, Vistry Works. We continue to use Vistry Works well. And it's feeding a number of our regions of around the country. And it's key to delivering those partnership sites mixed any sites at pace.
Adam Daniels: We continue to use Vistry Works well, and it is feeding a number of our regions around the country, and it is key to delivering those partnership sites, mixed tenure sites at pace. We have achieved volumes this year between 5,000 and 6,000 homes, and we will hold that volume at 6,000 as we go forward. We will not look to grow that. That will be our steady state for Vistry Works. That will be meaning that we are feeding half the business with timber frame, 12,000 medium-term target 6,000 coming from timber frame. The key shift here is to make it more efficient. We will shift our focus to the right geographic locations. Previously, we have used timber frame all across the country, from our factories in Leicester and up in the northwest, and clearly that is not as efficient as it could be.
Adam Daniels: We continue to use Vistry Works well, and it is feeding a number of our regions around the country, and it is key to delivering those partnership sites, mixed tenure sites at pace. We have achieved volumes this year between 5,000 and 6,000 homes, and we will hold that volume at 6,000 as we go forward.
Speaker #1: We've achieved volumes this year between 5,000 and 6,000 homes. And we'll hold that volume at 6,000 as we go forward. We won't look to grow that.
Adam Daniels: We will not look to grow that. That will be our steady state for Vistry Works. That will be meaning that we are feeding half the business with timber frame, 12,000 medium-term target 6,000 coming from timber frame. The key shift here is to make it more efficient. We will shift our focus to the right geographic locations. Previously, we have used timber frame all across the country, from our factories in Leicester and up in the northwest, and clearly that is not as efficient as it could be.
Speaker #1: That will be our steady state for Vistry Works. That will be meaning that we're feeding half the business with Timber Frame, 12,000 medium-term target, 6,000 coming from Timber Frame.
Speaker #1: And the key shift here is to make it more efficient. So, we'll shift our focus to the right geographic locations, previously we've used Timber Frame all across the country, from our factories in Leicester and up in the northwest.
Speaker #1: And clearly, that's not as efficient as it could be. So, focusing our delivery at Timber Frame around where the factory is based, the Midlands, and the north, is going to make us more efficient in our Vistry Works capability.
Adam Daniels: Focusing our delivery of timber frame around where the factory is based, the Midlands and the North, is going to make us more efficient in our Vistry Works capability. Really aligning Vistry Works to where we buy land, simplifying that product mix down to that 35 house types that I talked about earlier, and ensuring there is that discipline and planning around the operations to make timber frame work very well. Lots and lots of examples where this is working excellently across the business. As I say, a few that I touched on earlier on. To achieve this, we will reorganize the business. We currently run with 25 regions across the country, and we will move to 10 operating areas, as per the left-hand side map, 2 in London and 10 outside London. The shift here is that we want more of our focus of overheads in the site-based teams.
Adam Daniels: Focusing our delivery of timber frame around where the factory is based, the Midlands and the North, is going to make us more efficient in our Vistry Works capability. Really aligning Vistry Works to where we buy land, simplifying that product mix down to that 35 house types that I talked about earlier, and ensuring there is that discipline and planning around the operations to make timber frame work very well. Lots and lots of examples where this is working excellently across the business. As I say, a few that I touched on earlier on. To achieve this, we will reorganize the business.
Speaker #1: Really aligning Vistry Works to where we buy land, simplifying that product mix down to that 35 house types that I talked about earlier, and ensuring there's that discipline and planning around the operations to make Timber Frame work very well.
Speaker #1: Lots and lots of examples where this is working excellently across the business, I say a few that I touched on earlier on. And so, to achieve this, we'll reorganize the business.
Speaker #1: We currently run with 25 regions across the country. And we will move to 10 operating areas as per the left-hand side map. Two in London, and 10 outside London.
Adam Daniels: We currently run with 25 regions across the country, and we will move to 10 operating areas, as per the left-hand side map, 2 in London and 10 outside London. The shift here is that we want more of our focus of overheads in the site-based teams.
Speaker #1: The shift here is that we want more of our focus of overheads in the site-based teams. Our projects are challenging to operate with multiple partners and with fast build pace out on sites.
Adam Daniels: Our projects are challenging to operate with multiple partners and with fast build pace out on sites. Improving the quality of our project-based teams and ensuring that our operational teams are collectively based on site together working in project teams, our commercial, technical, sales, customer service, and build teams will really, really help support the quality delivery that we expect this business to provide. Those 10 larger operating areas will be focused as per the table on the right, and we have good evidence of regions already doing 1,000 to 1,200 plots in a very good way. This will refocus. We can pick the absolute best people that we have got in our business, be part of our 12 regions, and really, really deliver those great results and let these teams lead and take the business forward.
Adam Daniels: Our projects are challenging to operate with multiple partners and with fast build pace out on sites. Improving the quality of our project-based teams and ensuring that our operational teams are collectively based on site together working in project teams, our commercial, technical, sales, customer service, and build teams will really, really help support the quality delivery that we expect this business to provide. Those 10 larger operating areas will be focused as per the table on the right, and we have good evidence of regions already doing 1,000 to 1,200 plots in a very good way. This will refocus. We can pick the absolute best people that we have got in our business, be part of our 12 regions, and really, really deliver those great results and let these teams lead and take the business forward.
Speaker #1: And so, improving the quality of our project-based teams and ensuring that our operational teams are collectively based on site together, working in project teams, our commercial, technical, sales, customer service, and build teams, will really, really help support the quality delivery that we expect this business to provide.
Speaker #1: Those 10 larger operating areas will be focused as per the table on the right. And we have good evidence of regions already doing 1,000 to 1,200 plots in a very good way.
Speaker #1: So, this will refocus we can pick the absolute best people that we've got in our business to be part of our 12 regions and really, really deliver those great results.
Speaker #1: And let these teams lead and take the business forward. One change as part of this is that we'll take land buying away from regions and move it into the divisional teams, so that those land business and are really, really focused on the best quality land.
Adam Daniels: One change as part of this is it will take land buying away from regions and move it into the divisional teams, so those land teams have got a wider view of the business and are really, really focused on the best quality land. Rather than focusing on volume of sites bought, they will focus on quality of sites bought, and then we will work closely with the regions and feed them in so these regions can become expert operators out on sites delivering quality returns, and we can buy the best quality land to feed them with. We will drive some efficiency from that. We will focus the people investment at a site level and with high quality management teams based in the regions. We are targeting GBP 50 million of overhead savings in 2027 with further improvements by 2029 and in the medium term.
Adam Daniels: One change as part of this is it will take land buying away from regions and move it into the divisional teams, so those land teams have got a wider view of the business and are really, really focused on the best quality land. Rather than focusing on volume of sites bought, they will focus on quality of sites bought, and then we will work closely with the regions and feed them in so these regions can become expert operators out on sites delivering quality returns, and we can buy the best quality land to feed them with.
Speaker #1: Rather than focusing on volume of sites bought, they'll focus on quality of sites bought. And then we'll work closely with the regions and feed them in so these regions can become expert operators out on sites delivering quality returns and we can buy the best quality land to feed them with.
Speaker #1: So, we'll drive some efficiency from that. We'll focus the people investment at site level. And with high-quality management teams based in the regions. And we're targeting 50 million pound of overhead savings in 2027, with further improvements by 2029 and in the medium term.
Adam Daniels: We will drive some efficiency from that. We will focus the people investment at a site level and with high quality management teams based in the regions. We are targeting GBP 50 million of overhead savings in 2027 with further improvements by 2029 and in the medium term.
Speaker #1: And those will come from the BAU savings, regional reorganization I've talked about, clearly reduced activity, and a slimming down of our central services team in order to support the revised size of the business.
Adam Daniels: Those will come from the BAU savings, regional reorganization that I have talked about, clearly reduced activity and a slimming down of our central services team in order to support the revised size of the business. That will be a gradual piece of work over the near term in order to bring us into the right shape by the time we achieve the medium-term targets in FY31. We should continue to tighten our controls so we can manage risk effectively. So stronger governance around land, proactive CEO intervention from myself to ensure that we are controlling the land pipeline effectively and earlier involvement of the investment committee in our land decisions, increasing that standardization and consistency. We have evidence that when we do this well, we can create great returns and it is about replicating that all across the business.
Adam Daniels: Those will come from the BAU savings, regional reorganization that I have talked about, clearly reduced activity and a slimming down of our central services team in order to support the revised size of the business. That will be a gradual piece of work over the near term in order to bring us into the right shape by the time we achieve the medium-term targets in FY31.
Speaker #1: And that will be a gradual piece of work over the near term, in order to bring us into the right shape by the time we achieve the medium-term targets in FY31.
Speaker #1: We should continue to tie in our controls so we can manage risk effectively. So, stronger governance around land, proactive CEO intervention from myself to ensure that we're controlling the land pipeline effectively, and earlier involvement of the investment committee in our land decisions.
Adam Daniels: We should continue to tighten our controls so we can manage risk effectively. So stronger governance around land, proactive CEO intervention from myself to ensure that we are controlling the land pipeline effectively and earlier involvement of the investment committee in our land decisions, increasing that standardization and consistency. We have evidence that when we do this well, we can create great returns and it is about replicating that all across the business.
Speaker #1: Increasing that standardization and consistency. We have evidence that when we do this well, we can create great returns. And it's about replicating that all across the business.
Speaker #1: Ensuring the structure and people suit the way we want to operate. Site-based teams working well along high-quality management teams. And we measure and monitor that work closely using data to make sure that we manage this change and implementation effectively.
Adam Daniels: Ensuring the structure and people suit the way we want to operate. Site-based teams working well along high quality management teams. We measure and monitor that work closely using data to make sure that we manage this change and implementation effectively. Clearly, alongside that, we will continue to build the right culture. We have a large portion of the business with a very strong culture that really understands the purpose-led mixed tenure model that we operate, and we need to continue to replicate that all across the business. So understand the strategy clearly. Now I want to simplify what we are doing and make it more understandable so people can really be on board with the plan. Foster that unified culture that we want all across the regions and in the group teams and ensure we set consistent expectations. I am extremely reassured by the engagement through the CEO review.
Adam Daniels: Ensuring the structure and people suit the way we want to operate. Site-based teams working well along high quality management teams. We measure and monitor that work closely using data to make sure that we manage this change and implementation effectively. Clearly, alongside that, we will continue to build the right culture.
Speaker #1: Clearly, alongside that, we'll continue to build the right culture. We have a large proportion of the business with a very strong culture that really understands the purpose-led mixed tenure model that we operate.
Adam Daniels: We have a large portion of the business with a very strong culture that really understands the purpose-led mixed tenure model that we operate, and we need to continue to replicate that all across the business. So understand the strategy clearly. Now I want to simplify what we are doing and make it more understandable so people can really be on board with the plan. Foster that unified culture that we want all across the regions and in the group teams and ensure we set consistent expectations. I am extremely reassured by the engagement through the CEO review.
Speaker #1: And we need to continue to replicate that all across the business. So, understand the strategy clearly. I want to simplify what we're doing and make it more understandable so people can really be on board with the plan.
Speaker #1: Foster that unified culture that we want all across the regions and in the group teams. And ensure we set consistent expectations. I'm extremely reassured by the engagement through a CEO review.
Speaker #1: We have a huge amount of very talented people and a very strong core of colleagues who are in line with our purpose and want to continue to build high-quality housing that solves the housing crisis.
Adam Daniels: We have a huge amount of very talented people and a very strong core of colleagues who are aligned with our purpose and want to continue to build high quality housing that solves the housing crisis. So I have talked for a little while there and given you a lot of detail about what has gone well, what has not gone well, how we get this business to perform. This is not as complicated as I perhaps have made out in the last half an hour. This is about simplifying Vistry. 25 regions down to 12. 16,000 volumes to 12,000. 100 standard house types is roughly where we are at the moment, down to 35. 3 brands to 1. Vistry Works refocused on an owned land bank of 51,000 down to 36,000. This is making this business easier to operate, more reliable, more consistent and less risky.
Adam Daniels: We have a huge amount of very talented people and a very strong core of colleagues who are aligned with our purpose and want to continue to build high quality housing that solves the housing crisis. So I have talked for a little while there and given you a lot of detail about what has gone well, what has not gone well, how we get this business to perform. This is not as complicated as I perhaps have made out in the last half an hour.
Speaker #1: So, I've talked for a little while there. And given you a lot of detail about what's gone well, what's not gone well, how we get this business to perform.
Speaker #1: But this is not as complicated as I perhaps have made out in the last half an hour. This is about simplifying Vistry. 25 regions down to 12, 16,000 volumes to 12,000, 100 standard house types is roughly where we are at the moment, down to 35.
Adam Daniels: This is about simplifying Vistry. 25 regions down to 12. 16,000 volumes to 12,000. 100 standard house types is roughly where we are at the moment, down to 35. 3 brands to 1. Vistry Works refocused on an owned land bank of 51,000 down to 36,000. This is making this business easier to operate, more reliable, more consistent and less risky.
Speaker #1: Three brands to one. Vistry Works refocused. And an owned land bank of 51,000 down to 36,000. This is making this business easier to operate, more reliable, more consistent, and less risky.
Speaker #1: And I want you to take a few things away. As I said, in my view, this is not complicated. And you can simplify these into three things.
Adam Daniels: I want you to take a few things away. As I said, in my view, this is not complicated and you can simplify these into three things. The success of this business is the right deal structure on the land and the partner side. We can evidence we have done that a hell of a lot of times. It is about the right tenure strategy, a complementary mix between the tenures and a flexibility to move between those tenures to suit the market conditions. It is about the right execution. The changes we are making to the business today will ensure that we do those things time and time again and deliver a high quality business as we move forward.
Adam Daniels: I want you to take a few things away. As I said, in my view, this is not complicated and you can simplify these into three things. The success of this business is the right deal structure on the land and the partner side. We can evidence we have done that a hell of a lot of times. It is about the right tenure strategy, a complementary mix between the tenures and a flexibility to move between those tenures to suit the market conditions. It is about the right execution. The changes we are making to the business today will ensure that we do those things time and time again and deliver a high quality business as we move forward.
Speaker #1: The success of this business is the right deal structure. On the land and the partner side. And we can evidence we've done that a hell of a lot of times.
Speaker #1: It's about the right tenure strategy. A complementary mix between the tenures and a flexibility to move between those tenures to suit the market conditions.
Speaker #1: And it's about the right execution. And the changes we're making to the business today will ensure that we do those things time and time again, and deliver a high-quality business as we move forward.
Speaker #1: And those three things are what I'd like to take away as how we simplify the business and how we get it performing, and how we get more and more of these sites that deliver high cashback returns, good margins, and return on capital employed.
Adam Daniels: Those three things are what I would like to take away as how we simplify the business and how we get it performing, and how we get more and more of these sites that deliver high cash back returns, good margins and ROCE. So the financial benefits of the strategic evolution. Lower debt, higher margin, reduce capital employed and more consistent returns. If we move forward on this course and achieve the build up on those sites that I talked about earlier, this will come and we will be able to operate the business in this way. We are confirming our five-year targets today for FY31. So 12,000 units per annum, which I talked about the reasons behind that and focusing on the quality of those volumes. A 60%/40% mix between open market and partner. A 12% operating margin.
Adam Daniels: Those three things are what I would like to take away as how we simplify the business and how we get it performing, and how we get more and more of these sites that deliver high cash back returns, good margins and ROCE. So the financial benefits of the strategic evolution. Lower debt, higher margin, reduce capital employed and more consistent returns. If we move forward on this course and achieve the build up on those sites that I talked about earlier, this will come and we will be able to operate the business in this way. We are confirming our five-year targets today for FY31. So 12,000 units per annum, which I talked about the reasons behind that and focusing on the quality of those volumes. A 60%/40% mix between open market and partner. A 12% operating margin.
Speaker #1: So, the financial benefits of the strategic evolution. Lower debt, higher margin, reduced capital employed, and more consistent returns. If we move forward on this course and achieve that buildup of those sites that I've talked about earlier, this will come and we'll be able to operate the business in this way.
Speaker #1: I'm a confirming our five-year targets today for FY31. So, 12,000 units per annum. Which I've talked about, the reasons behind that, and focusing on the quality of those volumes.
Speaker #1: A 60/40% mix between open market and partner. A 12% operating margin. You can see already we have got a bulk of our sites achieving 18.5% gross margin.
Adam Daniels: You can see already we have got a bulk of our sites achieving 18.5% gross margin. As I touched on earlier, 5% of operating costs will be able to get us comfortably to this 12%. A 30% plus ROCE, industry leading ROCE from this model. A really key stat that we will go out and achieve. Bringing that land bank down to 36,000 owned plots. A targeted average net debt of GBP 300 million in the medium term, with operating profit of GBP 450 million and a capital employed of GBP 1.5 billion. So that is our five-year targets for Vistry by FY31. Just to touch on capital structure, you can see the allocation hierarchy on the right-hand side, clearly focusing on cash generation and strengthening the balance sheet before we move down that flow.
Adam Daniels: You can see already we have got a bulk of our sites achieving 18.5% gross margin. As I touched on earlier, 5% of operating costs will be able to get us comfortably to this 12%. A 30% plus ROCE, industry leading ROCE from this model. A really key stat that we will go out and achieve. Bringing that land bank down to 36,000 owned plots. A targeted average net debt of GBP 300 million in the medium term, with operating profit of GBP 450 million and a capital employed of GBP 1.5 billion. So that is our five-year targets for Vistry by FY31. Just to touch on capital structure, you can see the allocation hierarchy on the right-hand side, clearly focusing on cash generation and strengthening the balance sheet before we move down that flow.
Speaker #1: And as I touched on earlier, 5% of operating costs will be able to get us comfortably to this 12%. A 30% plus return on capital employed.
Speaker #1: Industry leading return on capital employed from this model. A really key stat that we'll go out and achieve. Bring that land bank down to 36,000 owned plots.
Speaker #1: A target average daily net debt of 300 million pounds in the medium term, with operating profit of 450 million. And a capital employed of 1.5 billion.
Speaker #1: So that is our five-year targets for Vistry by FY31. And just to touch on capital structure, you can see the allocation hierarchy on the right-hand side, clearly focusing on cash generation and strengthening the balance sheet before we move down that flow.
Speaker #1: And we're targeting 100% free cash flow conversion, supported by that tighter discipline, of land acquisition and consistency of build programs. Average daily net debt, we expect in the medium term, to be not exceeding normalized rolling 12 months EBITDA, or 30% of tangible net assets.
Adam Daniels: We are targeting 100% free cash flow conversion, supported by that tighter discipline of land acquisition and consistency of build programs. Average net debt we expect in the medium term to be not exceeding normalized rolling 12 months EBITDA or 30% of tangible net assets. So we are aiming for GBP 300 million, sorry, from FY29. To get there, we are targeting a reduction to GBP 500 million in FY27 and below GBP 400 million in FY28. Peak debt, we look to maintain a headroom at least 20% of our total committed facilities, but very importantly, aim for this smoother profile. We tend to see that we have a lot of outflow in January and July through land payments and smoothing that profile will really help.
Adam Daniels: We are targeting 100% free cash flow conversion, supported by that tighter discipline of land acquisition and consistency of build programs. Average net debt we expect in the medium term to be not exceeding normalized rolling 12 months EBITDA or 30% of tangible net assets. So we are aiming for GBP 300 million, sorry, from FY29. To get there, we are targeting a reduction to GBP 500 million in FY27 and below GBP 400 million in FY28. Peak debt, we look to maintain a headroom at least 20% of our total committed facilities, but very importantly, aim for this smoother profile. We tend to see that we have a lot of outflow in January and July through land payments and smoothing that profile will really help.
Speaker #1: So we're aiming for 300 million pounds, sorry, from FY29. And to get there, we're targeting a reduction to 500 million pound in FY27, and below 400 million pounds in FY28.
Speaker #1: Peak debt we'll look to maintain a headroom of at least 20% of our total committed facilities, but very importantly, aim for this smoother profile.
Speaker #1: So we tend to see that we have a lot of outflow in January and July through land payments, and smoothen that profile will really help.
Speaker #1: We'll continue to use land creditors, where possible, to help with timing of payments, but we'll manage the profile of that to remove the lumpiness, as I talked about earlier.
Adam Daniels: We will continue to use land creditors where possible to help with timing of payments, but we will manage the profile of that to remove the lumpiness as I talked about earlier. In relation to shareholder distributions, look to reintroduce those once sufficient progress has been made on the balance sheet. As I work with the new CFO into 2027, we will look to review that distribution policy and update the market on that in due course. I think a really compelling case about why mixed tenure works. I think a really compelling case about how we need to move the business forward. I will pass to Tim now to talk about the financial evolution on the back of the CEO review. Thank you.
Adam Daniels: We will continue to use land creditors where possible to help with timing of payments, but we will manage the profile of that to remove the lumpiness as I talked about earlier. In relation to shareholder distributions, look to reintroduce those once sufficient progress has been made on the balance sheet. As I work with the new CFO into 2027, we will look to review that distribution policy and update the market on that in due course. I think a really compelling case about why mixed tenure works. I think a really compelling case about how we need to move the business forward. I will pass to Tim now to talk about the financial evolution on the back of the CEO review. Thank you.
Speaker #1: And in relation to shareholder distributions, look to reintroduce those once sufficient progress has been made on the balance sheet. And as I work with the new CFO into 2027, we'll look to review that distribution policy and update the market on that in due course.
Speaker #1: So, I think a really compelling case about why mixed tenure works. I think a really compelling case about how we need to move the business forward.
Speaker #1: And I'll pass to Tim now to talk about the financial evolution on the back of the CEO review. Thank you. Thank you. Hopefully, you've still got some brain capacity for some numbers.
Tim Lawlor: Thank you. Hopefully, you have still got some brain capacity for some numbers. Let us run through the financial journey then from here to the end of the year and through to FY31 with some building blocks. The first one, there is quite a lot of information on this slide. This is to try and orientate to what we are saying for the end of the year because it is a slightly confusing picture. Let me start at the top. Last year, we delivered GBP 269 million of profit. Back in July, we said that excluding the impact of the CEO review, we would get to around GBP 200 million of profit. We said that the reason for that is largely the cash discounting of open market sales. So 200 is the starting point then for the reconciliation of today's news.
Tim Lawlor: Thank you. Hopefully, you have still got some brain capacity for some numbers. Let us run through the financial journey then from here to the end of the year and through to FY31 with some building blocks. The first one, there is quite a lot of information on this slide. This is to try and orientate to what we are saying for the end of the year because it is a slightly confusing picture. Let me start at the top. Last year, we delivered GBP 269 million of profit. Back in July, we said that excluding the impact of the CEO review, we would get to around GBP 200 million of profit.
Speaker #1: So let's run through the financial journey then from here to the end of the year, and through to FY31 with some building blocks. So the first one is quite a lot of information on this slide.
Speaker #1: This is to try and orientate to what we're saying for the end of the year. Because it's a slightly confusing picture. Let me start at the top.
Speaker #1: Last year, we delivered 269 million pounds of profit. Back in July, we said that the excluding CEO review, excluding the impacts of the CEO review, we would get to around 200 million pounds of profit.
Speaker #1: And we said that the reason for that is largely the cash discounting of open market sales. So 200 is the starting point then, for the reconciliation of today's news.
Tim Lawlor: We said that the reason for that is largely the cash discounting of open market sales. So 200 is the starting point then for the reconciliation of today's news.
Speaker #1: First thing is that there's been trading deterioration that frankly is not anything really to do with the CEO review. It is due to the open market conditions that were disappointing in the summer.
Tim Lawlor: First thing is that there has been trading deterioration that frankly is not anything really to do with the CEO review. It is due to the open market conditions that were disappointing in the summer. The equivalent of the 200 now is 165. We are calling that normalized for the benefit of reconciling in the future page around how we get to FY31. Within the 165 and within the 200, we had GBP 40 million worth of profits that we assumed we were going to get from deals under the previous criteria that was being used to determine what sort of deals we were prepared to do. During the course of the summer, we have refreshed those criteria, as Adam has talked about, and concluded that we need to go and renegotiate those deals.
Tim Lawlor: First thing is that there has been trading deterioration that frankly is not anything really to do with the CEO review. It is due to the open market conditions that were disappointing in the summer. The equivalent of the 200 now is 165. We are calling that normalized for the benefit of reconciling in the future page around how we get to FY31. Within the 165 and within the 200, we had GBP 40 million worth of profits that we assumed we were going to get from deals under the previous criteria that was being used to determine what sort of deals we were prepared to do. During the course of the summer, we have refreshed those criteria, as Adam has talked about, and concluded that we need to go and renegotiate those deals.
Speaker #1: So the equivalent of the 200 now is 165. We're calling that normalized for the benefit of reconciling in the future page around how we get to FY31.
Speaker #1: Within the 165, or within the 200, we had 40 million pounds' worth of profits that we assumed we were going to get from deals under the previous criteria that was being used to determine what sort of deals we were prepared to do.
Speaker #1: During the course of the summer, we've refreshed those criteria as Adam's talked about, and concluded that we need to go and renegotiate those deals.
Speaker #1: So the deals are still there, but they won't happen in 2026, because we need to look at the we need to look at the terms and conditions of those, so we'd expect them to get them back.
Tim Lawlor: The deals are still there, but they will not happen in 2026 because we needed to look at the terms and conditions of those. We would expect them to get them back. There is an abnormally lower run rate of partner deals in 2026. What that takes you to is a number of 125. That 125 then is effectively the maximum APBT that we are guiding to this year. After the 125, then we have got the impact of these actions that are being implemented. There is the change in the strategy for the Southeast of England. There is the reshaping of the land bank, and there are a few other bits. The sort of things to talk about here are changing the tenure mix on our sites as we review each and every site strategy to say, is it the right thing to be doing?
Tim Lawlor: The deals are still there, but they will not happen in 2026 because we needed to look at the terms and conditions of those. We would expect them to get them back. There is an abnormally lower run rate of partner deals in 2026. What that takes you to is a number of 125. That 125 then is effectively the maximum APBT that we are guiding to this year. After the 125, then we have got the impact of these actions that are being implemented. There is the change in the strategy for the Southeast of England. There is the reshaping of the land bank, and there are a few other bits.
Speaker #1: So there's an abnormally lower run rate of partner deals in 2026. So what that takes you to is a number of 1, 2, 5.
Speaker #1: Now, that 1, 2, 5 then is effectively the maximum ABPT that we're guiding to this year. After the 1, 25, then we've got the impact of these
Speaker #3: actions that are being implemented. So there's the change in the strategy for the southeast of England, there's the reshaping of the land bank, and there's a few other bits.
Speaker #3: Now the sort of things to talk about here are changing the tenure mix on our sites as we review each and every site strategy to say, is it the right thing to be doing?
Tim Lawlor: The sort of things to talk about here are changing the tenure mix on our sites as we review each and every site strategy to say, is it the right thing to be doing?
Speaker #3: So changing the tenure mix, In the southeast, for example, we'd be moving more product from privates to partner sales, and hence you've got a discount on price, and you need to write down your inventory or take a provision or reduce your margin going forward.
Tim Lawlor: Changing the tenure mix in the Southeast, for example, would be moving more product from private to partner sales, and hence you have got a discount on price and you need to write down your inventory or take a provision or reduce your margin going forward. Also what we do is look to accelerate the exit from the Southeast by discounting the private sale. Not necessarily changing the tenure, but changing the pricing in order to accelerate the cash and coming out of the Southeast. Other things we will be doing in this area, we will be looking at the timing and the programming of build. We might be accelerating some cost. We might look at some additional risk contingency that means we are putting in to account for the transition risk that is going ahead.
Tim Lawlor: Changing the tenure mix in the Southeast, for example, would be moving more product from private to partner sales, and hence you have got a discount on price and you need to write down your inventory or take a provision or reduce your margin going forward. Also what we do is look to accelerate the exit from the Southeast by discounting the private sale. Not necessarily changing the tenure, but changing the pricing in order to accelerate the cash and coming out of the Southeast. Other things we will be doing in this area, we will be looking at the timing and the programming of build. We might be accelerating some cost. We might look at some additional risk contingency that means we are putting in to account for the transition risk that is going ahead.
Speaker #3: Also, what we do is look to accelerate the exit from the southeast by discounting the private sales. So not necessarily changing the tenure, but changing the pricing in order to accelerate the cash and coming out of the southeast.
Speaker #3: Then other things we'll be doing in this area, we'll be looking at the timing and the programming of build, so we might be accelerating some costs We might look at some additional risk contingency that we need to be putting in to account for the transition risk that's going ahead.
Speaker #3: So all of those things go into the site-by-site calculation that will be finalized in the second half of the year. We're working through this with some of the support of some external consultants.
Tim Lawlor: All of those things go into the site-by-site calculation that will be finalized in the H2. We are working through this with the support of some external consultants to work through the precise numbers. Our current estimate is that the impact of those combined is GBP 470 million. Now, some of those will be clearly exceptional items. Some of those things may not meet the classification of exceptional items, and hence some of the GBP 470 million will be charged against APBT and some will drop into exceptionals. At the moment, there is a range of APBT for the full year, which we will update on as we develop the work in the H2. Then there are those items that we know are exceptionals and will not go into profit before tax.
Tim Lawlor: All of those things go into the site-by-site calculation that will be finalized in the H2. We are working through this with the support of some external consultants to work through the precise numbers. Our current estimate is that the impact of those combined is GBP 470 million. Now, some of those will be clearly exceptional items. Some of those things may not meet the classification of exceptional items, and hence some of the GBP 470 million will be charged against APBT and some will drop into exceptionals. At the moment, there is a range of APBT for the full year, which we will update on as we develop the work in the H2. Then there are those items that we know are exceptionals and will not go into profit before tax.
Speaker #3: Consultants to work through the precise numbers, and our current estimate is that the impact of those combined is £470 million. Now, some of those will be clearly exceptional items.
Speaker #3: Some of those things may not meet the classification of exceptional items, and hence somewhere, some of the £470 million will be charged against APBT and some will drop into exceptionals.
Speaker #3: So at the moment, there's a range of APBT for the full year, which we'll update on as we develop the work in the second half of the year.
Speaker #3: Then there are those items that we know are exceptionals and won't go into profit before tax. So restructuring, where we took the temporary £10 million charge in the first half of the year.
Tim Lawlor: Restructuring, where we took the GBP 10 million charge from the H1. We are expecting a GBP 30 million additional charge to be taken in the H2 to cover the costs of exiting headcounts and also to reduce the office footprints that we need for our regional offices. So GBP 40 million there. I talked earlier on about the GBP 475 million for goodwill impairments. Within other exceptionals, we have got the GBP 73 million or GBP 79 million of building safety costs that, again, I covered earlier on. All of that takes us to a profit before tax of GBP 975 million. What about getting to FY31? Starting with that GBP 165 million that I referenced on the previous page. Add back the finance costs to get to an AOP number of around GBP 260 million for this year.
Tim Lawlor: Restructuring, where we took the GBP 10 million charge from the H1. We are expecting a GBP 30 million additional charge to be taken in the H2 to cover the costs of exiting headcounts and also to reduce the office footprints that we need for our regional offices. So GBP 40 million there. I talked earlier on about the GBP 475 million for goodwill impairments. Within other exceptionals, we have got the GBP 73 million or GBP 79 million of building safety costs that, again, I covered earlier on. All of that takes us to a profit before tax of GBP 975 million. What about getting to FY31?
Speaker #3: We're expecting a £30 million additional charge to be taken in the second half of the year to cover the costs of exiting headcounts and also to reduce the office footprints that we need for our regional offices.
Speaker #3: So £40 million there. I talked earlier on about the £475 million of goodwill impairment.
Speaker #4: impairments.
Speaker #3: And within other exceptionals, we've got the £73 million or £79 million of building safety costs that, again, I covered earlier on. So all of that takes us to a profit before tax of £975 million.
Speaker #3: So what about getting to FY31? So starting with that 165 that I referenced on the previous page. Add back the finance costs to get to an AOP number of around 260 for this year.
Tim Lawlor: Starting with that GBP 165 million that I referenced on the previous page. Add back the finance costs to get to an AOP number of around GBP 260 million for this year.
Speaker #3: So the building blocks to get from the 260 to the 450 in our targets have got these chunks. First of all, the reduction in volumes by 3,000 to 4,000 will clearly take out volumes at standard margins, so about a £90 million impact to profit from the volume reduction.
Tim Lawlor: The building blocks to get from the GBP 260 million to the GBP 450 million in our targets have got these chunks. First of all, the reduction in volumes by 3,000 to 4,000 will clearly take out volumes at standard margins. About a GBP 90 million impact to profit from the volume reduction. We make that back by margin improvements from the actions that Adam has talked about. Category 1, the one-off of low margin sites, that 90. What that 90 is improved performance. That is saying we are not going to have all of these low margin sites. Of course, there will be some and we cannot get everything right, but the general blend will improve because we have got a more standardized approach. We are more selective about what we are working on. Any land we expect to come in at a higher margin than the average margin at the moment.
Tim Lawlor: The building blocks to get from the GBP 260 million to the GBP 450 million in our targets have got these chunks. First of all, the reduction in volumes by 3,000 to 4,000 will clearly take out volumes at standard margins. About a GBP 90 million impact to profit from the volume reduction. We make that back by margin improvements from the actions that Adam has talked about. Category 1, the one-off of low margin sites, that 90. What that 90 is improved performance. That is saying we are not going to have all of these low margin sites. Of course, there will be some and we cannot get everything right, but the general blend will improve because we have got a more standardized approach.
Speaker #3: And we make that back by margin improvements from the actions that Adam's talked about. So Category 1, the runoff of low-margin sites, that 90, what that 90 is, is improved performance.
Speaker #3: So that's saying we're not going to have all of these low-margin Of course, there will be some, and we can't get everything right, but the general blend will improve because we've got a more standardized approach.
Speaker #3: We're more selective about what we're working on. And the new land we expect to come in at a higher margin than the average margin at the moment.
Tim Lawlor: We are more selective about what we are working on. Any land we expect to come in at a higher margin than the average margin at the moment.
Speaker #3: So £90 million really from better site performance. The next chunk, 70, is a Tenneem exchange. So at the moment, we're at sort of 70/30 over the last few years, 70% partner funded, 30% private.
Tim Lawlor: 90 million really from better site performance. The next chunk, 70, is a tenure exchange. At the moment we are at sort of 70/30 over the last few years, 70% partner funded, 30% private. By moving to 60/40, you are going to get a higher margin because of the higher open market mix. That is the 70. There is an element from partner funded pricing. The less we chase volume, the more selective we can be about the deals we do and the harder we can be about taking only those deals that work. By moving away from the rush for deals in June and December, it will strengthen our negotiating position, so being prepared to walk away.
Tim Lawlor: 90 million really from better site performance. The next chunk, 70, is a tenure exchange. At the moment we are at sort of 70/30 over the last few years, 70% partner funded, 30% private. By moving to 60/40, you are going to get a higher margin because of the higher open market mix. That is the 70. There is an element from partner funded pricing. The less we chase volume, the more selective we can be about the deals we do and the harder we can be about taking only those deals that work. By moving away from the rush for deals in June and December, it will strengthen our negotiating position, so being prepared to walk away.
Speaker #3: By moving to 60/40, you're going to get a higher margin because of the higher open market mix. So, that's the 70. Then there's an element from partner-funded pricing.
Speaker #3: So, The less we chase volume, the more selective we can be about the deals we do, and the harder we can be about taking only those deals that work.
Speaker #3: And by moving away from the rush for deals in June and December, it'll strengthen our negotiating position. So, being prepared to walk away. So, while most of the partner funded deals are at good pricing terms.
Tim Lawlor: While most of the partner funded deals are good pricing terms, there are some that have been overly discounted that under the new structure we would not proceed with and that will lift margin. Other margin movements are more around cost efficiencies within what we build. The more we standardize, the more mature we are about how we are doing this, the lower the unit cost we expect of every house we build. Finally, in overheads, we talk about a GBP 70 million improvement over the five-year period. That is the 25 million that we talked about earlier that is coming from the efforts that were underway back in July, including the voluntary exit scheme and a further 50 from the additional restructuring that we are starting now.
Tim Lawlor: While most of the partner funded deals are good pricing terms, there are some that have been overly discounted that under the new structure we would not proceed with and that will lift margin. Other margin movements are more around cost efficiencies within what we build. The more we standardize, the more mature we are about how we are doing this, the lower the unit cost we expect of every house we build. Finally, in overheads, we talk about a GBP 70 million improvement over the five-year period. That is the 25 million that we talked about earlier that is coming from the efforts that were underway back in July, including the voluntary exit scheme and a further 50 from the additional restructuring that we are starting now.
Speaker #3: There are some that have been overly discounted, that under the new structure, we wouldn't proceed with, and that will lift margins. Other margin movements are more around cost efficiencies within what we build.
Speaker #3: So, the more we standardize, the more mature we are about how we're doing this, the lower the unit cost we expect every house we build.
Speaker #3: And then finally, in overheads, we're talking about a £70 million improvement over the 5-year period. So that is the £25 million that we talked about earlier, that's coming from the efforts that were underway back in July, including the Voluntary Exit Scheme, and a further £50 million from the additional restructuring that we're starting now.
Speaker #3: And the reasons why it's 70 is because we're assuming we're going to get around £5 million of benefit within the 26 number. So that's the conceptual bridge to get to 450 in FY31.
Tim Lawlor: The reasons why it is 70 is because we are assuming we are going to get around 5 million of benefit within the 2026 number. That is the conceptual bridge to get to 450 in FY31. Turning to debt. Here we are starting with an average daily debt of 775 for 2026. The left-hand column of the table on the left-hand side of the chart shows a reconciliation to get to GBP 500 million of average net debt next year. How are we delivering that? Well, the first piece is that we are expecting that we are going to start the year with 140 million lower debt than we started 2026 with. That is going to come from the influx of a number of deals that we are doing during the course of the Q4. Expecting to be, as I said earlier on, broadly net debt neutral at the end of this year.
Tim Lawlor: The reasons why it is 70 is because we are assuming we are going to get around 5 million of benefit within the 2026 number. That is the conceptual bridge to get to 450 in FY31. Turning to debt. Here we are starting with an average daily debt of 775 for 2026. The left-hand column of the table on the left-hand side of the chart shows a reconciliation to get to GBP 500 million of average net debt next year. How are we delivering that? Well, the first piece is that we are expecting that we are going to start the year with 140 million lower debt than we started 2026 with. That is going to come from the influx of a number of deals that we are doing during the course of the Q4.
Speaker #4: Turning to debt.
Speaker #3: So here we're starting with an average daily debt of 775 for 2026. The left-hand column of the table on the left-hand side of the chart shows a reconciliation to get to £500 million of average debt— net debt next year.
Speaker #3: So how are we delivering that? Well, the first piece is that we're expecting that we're going to start the year with £140 million lower debt than we started '26 with.
Speaker #3: And that's going to come from the influx of a number of deals that we're doing during the course of the 4th quarter. So expecting to be, as I said earlier on, broadly net debt neutral at the end of this year.
Tim Lawlor: Expecting to be, as I said earlier on, broadly net debt neutral at the end of this year.
Speaker #3: So then the trick is holding on to that £140 million. And what we saw last year— or sorry, in 2026— is that we had this big outflow in the first quarter.
Tim Lawlor: The trick is holding onto that 140. What we saw last year, or sorry, in 2026, is there was big outflow in the Q1. We are not expecting the same level of outflow, so we should be able to hold onto that 140 through the year. There is going to be just the cash that is generated from operations. Lower run rate next year, some costs from building safety, but still that is going to contribute to the average debt coming down next year. There is going to be the contribution from starting some of this capital release, including reducing the Southeast Land Bank during the course of next year. So GBP 75 million from capital release next year. That is the bridge to the 500. Then we are saying we want to get to 300 of average net debt, daily net debt by FY29.
Tim Lawlor: The trick is holding onto that 140. What we saw last year, or sorry, in 2026, is there was big outflow in the Q1. We are not expecting the same level of outflow, so we should be able to hold onto that 140 through the year. There is going to be just the cash that is generated from operations. Lower run rate next year, some costs from building safety, but still that is going to contribute to the average debt coming down next year. There is going to be the contribution from starting some of this capital release, including reducing the Southeast Land Bank during the course of next year. So GBP 75 million from capital release next year. That is the bridge to the 500. Then we are saying we want to get to 300 of average net debt, daily net debt by FY29.
Speaker #3: We're not expecting the same level of outflow, so we should be able to hold on to that £140 million through the year. Then there's going to be just the cash that's generated from operations, lower profits, lower profit run rate next year, some costs from building safety, but still, that's going to contribute to the average debt coming down next year?
Speaker #3: And then there's going to be the contribution from starting some of this capital release, including reducing the Southeast Land Bank during the course of next year.
Speaker #3: So £75 million from capital release next year. So that's the bridge to the £500 million. Then we're saying we want to get to £300 million of average net debt, daily net debt, by FY29.
Speaker #3: So still got the 140 in there, but now we've also got 3 years of earnings contributing towards that debt reduction, and again, a greater level of capital release.
Tim Lawlor: We have still got the 140 in there, but now we have also got 3 years of earnings contributing towards that debt reduction and a greater level of capital release. We are expecting broadly GBP 300 million to come out of the Land Bank in that period that is going to impact the average debt. What that says at the bottom is there is a buffer actually of GBP 255 million to get to that 300. What is that buffer? Well, that is some mix of contingency, the option of additional investment, or it is shareholder distributions. Remember, we are keeping the optionality rather than declaring what we expect the distributions to be, but we certainly expect to be starting distributing to shareholders within this 3-year period. Then on the right-hand side, you can see the averaged debt profile and re-emphasis that we are committing to stabilizing average daily debt at 300 by FY29.
Tim Lawlor: We have still got the 140 in there, but now we have also got 3 years of earnings contributing towards that debt reduction and a greater level of capital release.
Speaker #3: So expecting broadly £300 million to come out of the land bank in that period that's going to impact the average debt. What that says at the bottom is there's a buffer actually of £255 million to get to that £300 million.
Tim Lawlor: We are expecting broadly GBP 300 million to come out of the Land Bank in that period that is going to impact the average debt. What that says at the bottom is there is a buffer actually of GBP 255 million to get to that 300. What is that buffer? Well, that is some mix of contingency, the option of additional investment, or it is shareholder distributions. Remember, we are keeping the optionality rather than declaring what we expect the distributions to be, but we certainly expect to be starting distributing to shareholders within this 3-year period. Then on the right-hand side, you can see the averaged debt profile and re-emphasis that we are committing to stabilizing average daily debt at 300 by FY29.
Speaker #3: So what is that buffer? Well, that's some mix of current contingency, the option for additional investment, or its shareholder distributions. At the moment, we're keeping the optionality rather than declaring what we expect the distributions to be, but we certainly expect to be starting distributing to shareholders within this 3-year period.
Speaker #3: So then on the right-hand side, you can see the average debt profile, and we emphasise that we are committing to stabilising average daily debt at £300 million by
Speaker #4: FY29.
Speaker #3: So what are the next steps on financing in a bit more detail? So the debt experts— this is a jumping-off point for debt. As we've said, average debt now is forecast at £750 million for the second half of the year.
Tim Lawlor: What are the next steps on financing? This is a bit more detail. The jumping off point for debt, as we have said, average debt now is forecast at 750 for the H2 of the year. There is a higher level of debt than we previously forecast because of the delay of open market sales, principally. Our full year debt will be broadly neutral. Our land creditors, however, will have come down to 700 million by the end of the year, having started at 990. So significant, pay down of land creditors during the course of FY26. We have got GBP 1 billion of committed facilities. GBP 100 million of that is in the form of a USPP, which we expect to pay out of our existing cash flows in February next year. We are not expecting to refinance that.
Tim Lawlor: What are the next steps on financing? This is a bit more detail. The jumping off point for debt, as we have said, average debt now is forecast at 750 for the H2 of the year. There is a higher level of debt than we previously forecast because of the delay of open market sales, principally. Our full year debt will be broadly neutral.
Speaker #3: It's a higher level of debt than we previously forecast because of the delay of open market sales, principally. And our full-year debt will be broadly neutral.
Speaker #3: Our land creditors, however, will have come down to £700 million by the end of the year, having started at £990 million. So significant paydown of land creditors during the course of FY26.
Tim Lawlor: Our land creditors, however, will have come down to 700 million by the end of the year, having started at 990. So significant, pay down of land creditors during the course of FY26. We have got GBP 1 billion of committed facilities. GBP 100 million of that is in the form of a USPP, which we expect to pay out of our existing cash flows in February next year. We are not expecting to refinance that.
Speaker #3: We've got £1 billion of committed facilities. £100 million of that is in the form of USPP, which we expect to pay out of existing cash flows in February next year.
Speaker #3: Don't— not expecting to refinance that. And while the rest of the £900 million with our banking syndicate runs out till April '28, to ensure that we've got 18 months' visibility for our going concern assessment in March next year when we report our results.
Tim Lawlor: While the rest of the 900 with our banking syndicate runs out till April 2028, to ensure that we have got 18 months visibility for our going concern assessment in March next year when we report our results, we will be looking to conclude whether it is a refinance, full refinancing, or an extension with the banks, during the course of the Q4. We have waited until we have concluded the CEO review, so we have got a firm foundation upon which to go to have that discussion with the banks. I said early on, we have had very productive discussions with the banks during the course of the last month or so around covenant waivers, and we expect to continue with those discussions, as soon as the investor roadshow is finished. We are confident we will reach a good conclusion and keep the markets appraised of progress as we go.
Tim Lawlor: While the rest of the 900 with our banking syndicate runs out till April 2028, to ensure that we have got 18 months visibility for our going concern assessment in March next year when we report our results, we will be looking to conclude whether it is a refinance, full refinancing, or an extension with the banks, during the course of the Q4.
Speaker #3: We'll be looking to conclude whether it's a refinance, full refinance, or an extension with banks during the course of 4th quarter. So we've waited until we've concluded the CA review, so we've got a firm foundation upon which to build.
Tim Lawlor: We have waited until we have concluded the CEO review, so we have got a firm foundation upon which to go to have that discussion with the banks. I said early on, we have had very productive discussions with the banks during the course of the last month or so around covenant waivers, and we expect to continue with those discussions, as soon as the investor roadshow is finished. We are confident we will reach a good conclusion and keep the markets appraised of progress as we go.
Speaker #3: to go and have that discussion with the banks. As I said earlier on, we've had very productive discussions with the banks during the course of the last month or so around covenant waivers, and we expect to continue with those discussions.
Speaker #3: As soon as the investor roadshow is finished. And we're confident we'll reach a good conclusion and keep the markets appraised of progress as we go.
Speaker #4: I think that'll do for me. Back to you, Adam.
Tim Lawlor: I think that will do for me. Back to you, Adam.
Tim Lawlor: I think that will do for me. Back to you, Adam.
Speaker #3: So I wanted to touch briefly on implementation. Clearly some change here and a clear implementation plan. Required, and so just a selection of the work streams needed to bring together this plan and execute it during the next 12 to 18 months.
Adam Daniels: I wanted to touch briefly on implementation. Clearly, some change here and a clear implementation plan required, so just a selection of the work streams needed to bring together this plan and execute it during the next 12 to 18 months. In land, clearly a focus around the quality of our land acquisition and the quality of the land portfolio. So optimizing that between now and the middle of 2028, bringing those sites forward that we know work and exiting those sites that aren't suitable for us. Drive a real improvement in our delivery efficiency and that site standardization. We can see how much standardization helps us to deliver.
Adam Daniels: I wanted to touch briefly on implementation. Clearly, some change here and a clear implementation plan required, so just a selection of the work streams needed to bring together this plan and execute it during the next 12 to 18 months. In land, clearly a focus around the quality of our land acquisition and the quality of the land portfolio. So optimizing that between now and the middle of 2028, bringing those sites forward that we know work and exiting those sites that aren't suitable for us. Drive a real improvement in our delivery efficiency and that site standardization. We can see how much standardization helps us to deliver.
Speaker #3: So in land, clearly a
Speaker #5: focus around the quality of our land acquisition and the quality of the land portfolio. Optimising that between now and the middle of 2028, bringing those sites forward that we know work and exiting those sites.
Speaker #5: That aren't suitable for us. Drive a real improvement in our delivery efficiency and that site standardisation. We can see how much standardisation helps us to deliver.
Speaker #5: The reorganisation of our business, simplifying the operating model and making that organisational structure suited to, A, how we want to run the business, and B, our new scale.
Adam Daniels: The reorganization of our business, simplifying the operating model, and making that organizational structure suited to, A, how we want to run the business, and B, our new scale, and strengthening our leadership, performance, and accountability by really focusing those regions around our best management teams. An internal team has been formed to support with this implementation, and that team will report directly to me. That team will be supported by our external consultants who we used during the review, will help us to implement this change. That transformation office will meet regularly, clearly, to implement across these work streams. I will provide regular updates to the board so they can see our progress through this transformation, and we will share updates with you, to the market as and when necessary.
Adam Daniels: The reorganization of our business, simplifying the operating model, and making that organizational structure suited to, A, how we want to run the business, and B, our new scale, and strengthening our leadership, performance, and accountability by really focusing those regions around our best management teams. An internal team has been formed to support with this implementation, and that team will report directly to me. That team will be supported by our external consultants who we used during the review, will help us to implement this change. That transformation office will meet regularly, clearly, to implement across these work streams. I will provide regular updates to the board so they can see our progress through this transformation, and we will share updates with you, to the market as and when necessary.
Speaker #5: And strengthening our leadership performance and accountability by really focusing those regions around our best management teams. So an internal team has been formed to support with this implementation, and that team will report directly to me.
Speaker #5: That team will be supported by our external consultants who we used during the review, will help us to implement this change. And that transformation office will meet regularly, clearly, to implement across these work streams.
Speaker #5: I will provide regular updates to the Board so they can see our progress through this transformation, and we will share updates with you, to the market, as and when necessary.
Speaker #5: We clearly need to finalise the financial impact that Tim talked through during the balance of this year and into next year, as we see the classification of those various items we've discussed with you today.
Adam Daniels: We'll clearly need to finalize the financial impact that Tim talked through during the balance of this year and into next year as we see the classification of those various items we've discussed with you today. We've done a number of things already since July, since we talked about the CEO review. Some tighter controls around site starts and build pace, reduce that land buy that I talked about earlier. We're looking at those deals that we want to do, but don't meet our commercial requirements. We clearly have got evidence that lots of deals meet our commercial requirements. This is not a new bar. It's just making more consistent, the commercial terms at which we operate those deals. Reshaping and exit those transactions that don't work for us and looking at the continued targeting pricing actions on that slow-moving stock that's worked well for us year to date.
Adam Daniels: We'll clearly need to finalize the financial impact that Tim talked through during the balance of this year and into next year as we see the classification of those various items we've discussed with you today. We've done a number of things already since July, since we talked about the CEO review. Some tighter controls around site starts and build pace, reduce that land buy that I talked about earlier. We're looking at those deals that we want to do, but don't meet our commercial requirements.
Speaker #5: So we've done a number of things already since July, since we talked about the CEO review— some tighter controls around site starts and build pace, reduce that landmine that I talked about earlier, We're looking at those deals that we want to do but don't meet our commercial requirements.
Speaker #5: We clearly have got evidence that lots of deals meet our commercial requirements. This is not a new bar, it's just making more consistent decisions.
Adam Daniels: We clearly have got evidence that lots of deals meet our commercial requirements. This is not a new bar. It's just making more consistent, the commercial terms at which we operate those deals. Reshaping and exit those transactions that don't work for us and looking at the continued targeting pricing actions on that slow-moving stock that's worked well for us year to date.
Speaker #5: consistent, the commercial terms that we actually operate those deals, reshaping and exiting those transactions that don't work for us, and looking at the continued targeting pricing actions on that slow-moving stock that's worked well for us year to date.
Speaker #5: More to do in Q3: the initial restructure, starting with land and planning teams, and then the wider restructuring process, continuing that tighter introduction of controls, ensuring that sites that are being brought forward to the Investment Committee have got those criteria that I talked you through earlier, and we'll continue to take that ongoing action.
Adam Daniels: More to do in Q3. The initial restructure, starting with land and planning teams and then the wider restructuring process, continuing that tighter introduction of controls, ensuring that sites that bring, brought forward to the investment committee have got those criteria that I talked you through earlier. We'll continue to take that ongoing action to reshape the land bank. So it's a good progress so far, but more to do in the balance of 2026 and into 2027. A clear delivery plan, a detailed delivery plan, to bring forward the implementation of those changes. Clear visibility and accountability on the progress of that work with the governance and reporting required, and making sure we meet that transformation in a good timeline and with sustained delivery momentum.
Adam Daniels: More to do in Q3. The initial restructure, starting with land and planning teams and then the wider restructuring process, continuing that tighter introduction of controls, ensuring that sites that bring, brought forward to the investment committee have got those criteria that I talked you through earlier. We'll continue to take that ongoing action to reshape the land bank. So it's a good progress so far, but more to do in the balance of 2026 and into 2027. A clear delivery plan, a detailed delivery plan, to bring forward the implementation of those changes. Clear visibility and accountability on the progress of that work with the governance and reporting required, and making sure we meet that transformation in a good timeline and with sustained delivery momentum.
Speaker #5: to reshape the landbank. So, so good progress so far, but more to do in the balance of '26 and into '27. So a clear delivery plan, a detailed delivery plan to bring forward the implementation of those changes, clear visibility and accountability on the progress of that work.
Speaker #5: With the governance and reporting required, and making sure we meet that transformation in a good timeline and with sustained delivery momentum. So changes here.
Adam Daniels: Changes here needed, but a clear plan in how we execute those changes and bring this business into the shape that we expect in the medium term. A brief summary. As I said earlier, we can bring this to a number of simple points: a refocused geography, a reduced capital light land bank, site strategies revised to deleverage the group, letting us work in a lower risk profile by exiting the open market in exposure in Southeast England, increasing that project level oversight that I have talked about today, and enhancing our governance and controls, giving us a reshaped business to focus on the best quality opportunities across our geography. That will give us more consistent partner deals with those high-quality partners that I have talked to you about today.
Speaker #5: Needed, got a clear plan in how we execute those changes and bring this business into the shape that we expect in the medium term.
Adam Daniels: Changes here needed, but a clear plan in how we execute those changes and bring this business into the shape that we expect in the medium term. A brief summary. As I said earlier, we can bring this to a number of simple points: a refocused geography, a reduced capital light land bank, site strategies revised to deleverage the group, letting us work in a lower risk profile by exiting the open market in exposure in Southeast England, increasing that project level oversight that I have talked about today, and enhancing our governance and controls, giving us a reshaped business to focus on the best quality opportunities across our geography. That will give us more consistent partner deals with those high-quality partners that I have talked to you about today.
Speaker #5: So a brief summary. As I said earlier, we can bring this to a number of simple points: a refocused geography, a reduced capital-light landbank, site strategies revised to deleverage the group, letting us work in a lower risk profile by exiting the open market exposure in Southeast England, increasing that project-level oversight that I've talked about today, and enhancing our governance and controls, giving us a reshaped business to focus on the best quality opportunities across our geography.
Speaker #5: And that'll give us more consistent partner deals with those high-quality partners that I've talked to you about today. Just before we conclude, I'll give you my thoughts on the current market conditions and an outlook as we move forward.
Adam Daniels: Just before we conclude, I will give you my thoughts on the current market conditions and an outlook as we move forward. Clearly we have seen subdued customer confidence and stretched affordability in the open market, particularly first-time buyers. We are seeing some good momentum now in affordable housing following the SAHP awards, and we have got a really good pipeline of future opportunities, both to use our grant with and to take advantage of the wider award with our affordable partners and the grant they have been awarded. PRS continues currently to underwhelm because of the multi-decade high bond yields, but this is an intrinsic part of the tenure mix going forward and will certainly recover. The demand for PRS is absolutely there to go at, and as market conditions change, we expect that to dramatically improve.
Adam Daniels: Just before we conclude, I will give you my thoughts on the current market conditions and an outlook as we move forward. Clearly we have seen subdued customer confidence and stretched affordability in the open market, particularly first-time buyers. We are seeing some good momentum now in affordable housing following the SAHP awards, and we have got a really good pipeline of future opportunities, both to use our grant with and to take advantage of the wider award with our affordable partners and the grant they have been awarded. PRS continues currently to underwhelm because of the multi-decade high bond yields, but this is an intrinsic part of the tenure mix going forward and will certainly recover. The demand for PRS is absolutely there to go at, and as market conditions change, we expect that to dramatically improve.
Speaker #5: So clearly, we've seen subdued customer confidence and stretched affordability. Affordability in the open market, particularly first-time buyers. We're seeing some good momentum now in affordable housing following the SEHP awards, and we've got a really good pipeline of future opportunities, both to use our grant with and to take advantage of the wider award with our affordable partners and the grant they've been awarded.
Speaker #5: PRS continues to continues currently to underwhelm because of the multi-decade high bond yields, but this is an intrinsic part of the tenure mix going forward and will certainly recover.
Speaker #5: The demand for PRS is absolutely there to go at, and as market conditions change, we expect that to dramatically improve. We've refined how we talk about the forward order book, and we're talking about a forward order book of £3.3 billion on those terms as we move forward.
Adam Daniels: We have refined how we talk about the forward order book, and we are talking about forward order book of GBP 3.3 billion on those terms as we move forward. We had very challenging open market conditions through the summer. I think a lot of our organizations suffered with that, and we slowed to 0.3 reservations per outlet per week, which has hurt some of that year-end profit delivery. As noted in July, H2 will see the conclusion of certain transactions delayed from H1, which will help us to reach that year-end number. But we have noted today that a number of those deals we are continuing to renegotiate to provide the right outcomes, and the number of those will flow into 2027. Guidance as we move forward. We have talked in detail through the FY26 numbers today.
Adam Daniels: We have refined how we talk about the forward order book, and we are talking about forward order book of GBP 3.3 billion on those terms as we move forward. We had very challenging open market conditions through the summer. I think a lot of our organizations suffered with that, and we slowed to 0.3 reservations per outlet per week, which has hurt some of that year-end profit delivery. As noted in July, H2 will see the conclusion of certain transactions delayed from H1, which will help us to reach that year-end number. But we have noted today that a number of those deals we are continuing to renegotiate to provide the right outcomes, and the number of those will flow into 2027. Guidance as we move forward. We have talked in detail through the FY26 numbers today.
Speaker #5: And we had a very challenging open market conditions through the summer. I think a lot of organisations suffered with that, and we slowed to 0.3 reservations per outlet per week, which has hurt some of that year-end profit delivery.
Speaker #5: As noted in July, H2 will see the conclusion of certain transactions laid in H1, which will help us to reach that year-end number, but we have noted today that a number of those deals we are continuing to renegotiate to provide the right outcomes, and a number of those will flow into 2027.
Speaker #5: So guidance as we move forward. We've talked in detail through the FY26 numbers today. Tim has given you a breakdown of how we get to those numbers and talked about a the profitability and the debt.
Adam Daniels: Tim has given you a breakdown of how we got to those numbers and talked about the profitability and the debt. In FY27, we are targeting an APBT of GBP 185 million and that average daily net debt coming down to that GBP 500 million average through next year. In the medium term, 12,000 units, 60/40 split between partner and private, 12% margin, an APBT of circa GBP 400 million, and a 30% plus return on capital employed, with that average net debt coming down to GBP 300 million in the medium term. Conclusions. Here is a bit of Vistry on a page, and I will leave this up during the Q&A so you can see. But capital light, industry leading return on capital employed. We can show through the work we have done that that is achievable.
Adam Daniels: Tim has given you a breakdown of how we got to those numbers and talked about the profitability and the debt. In FY27, we are targeting an APBT of GBP 185 million and that average daily net debt coming down to that GBP 500 million average through next year. In the medium term, 12,000 units, 60/40 split between partner and private, 12% margin, an APBT of circa GBP 400 million, and a 30% plus return on capital employed, with that average net debt coming down to GBP 300 million in the medium term. Conclusions. Here is a bit of Vistry on a page, and I will leave this up during the Q&A so you can see. But capital light, industry leading return on capital employed. We can show through the work we have done that that is achievable.
Speaker #5: In FY27, we're targeting an APVT of £185 million and that average daily net debt coming down to that £500 million average through next year.
Speaker #5: And in the medium term, 12,000 units, 60/40 split between partner and private, 12% margin, an APVT of circa £400 million and a 30%+ return on capital employed, with that average daily debt coming down to £300 million in the medium term.
Speaker #5: So, conclusions. Here's a bit of Vistry on a page, and I will leave this up during the Q&A so you can see, but capital-light, industry-leading return on capital employed.
Speaker #5: We can show through the work we've done that that is achievable, focused on the areas where our model works best, with high-quality partners in those stronger geographic locations, and a scale and size to support that.
Adam Daniels: Focused on the areas where our model works best with high-quality partners in those stronger geographic locations, and a scale and size to suit the opportunity that is ahead of us. That 12,000 units from the 19 that I talked about earlier. Vistry will be lower risk, capital light, a specialist mixed tenure house builder focused on that balance between partner-backed demand and open market exposure. Simpler, more focused, and more disciplined. That is the direction of travel. You can see the summary that I showed earlier about the way we are going to achieve that. Thank you for your time. Thank you for letting me walk you through those slides. We will move to Q&A. There is a microphone in the room, so we will take questions, and Jay will bring the microphone over. Thank you.
Adam Daniels: Focused on the areas where our model works best with high-quality partners in those stronger geographic locations, and a scale and size to suit the opportunity that is ahead of us. That 12,000 units from the 19 that I talked about earlier. Vistry will be lower risk, capital light, a specialist mixed tenure house builder focused on that balance between partner-backed demand and open market exposure. Simpler, more focused, and more disciplined. That is the direction of travel. You can see the summary that I showed earlier about the way we are going to achieve that. Thank you for your time. Thank you for letting me walk you through those slides. We will move to Q&A. There is a microphone in the room, so we will take questions, and Jay will bring the microphone over. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Suit the opportunity that's ahead of us. So that 12,000 units from the 19 that I talked about earlier. Vistry will be lower risk, capital light, a specialist mixed tenure housebuilder.
Speaker #5: Focused on that balance between partner-backed demand and open market exposure. Simpler, more focused, and more disciplined. That is the direction of travel. And you can see the summary that I showed earlier about the way we're going to achieve that.
Speaker #5: So thank you for your time. Thank you for letting me walk you through those slides. We'll move to Q&A. There is a microphone in the room, so we'll take questions and James will bring the microphone over.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Gwyneth Johnson, Jefferies. I seem to have got the mic and have a few questions, so let me just go a couple long-term, a couple short-term.
Gwenna Jones: Gwenna Jones from Jefferies. I seem to have got the mic and have a few questions, so let me just go. A couple long term, a couple short term. Long term, in terms of the framework agreements, it looks like you have negotiated approximately half of your delivery by year 5 to come from five contracts. You talk about another 10 being talked about. So where would you like to get those framework agreements to in terms of the coverage of your partnership delivery? Second of all, your 2031 target is an operating profit target, not a PBT. Is there some inference there in terms of JVs that we should be thinking about? Then thirdly, on the long term, the GBP 300 million average daily debt, is that the right level of debt for a business that is anticipated to have capital employed of GBP 1.5 billion?
Gwenna Jones: Gwenna Jones from Jefferies. I seem to have got the mic and have a few questions, so let me just go. A couple long term, a couple short term. Long term, in terms of the framework agreements, it looks like you have negotiated approximately half of your delivery by year 5 to come from five contracts.
Speaker #3: Long-term, in terms of the framework
Speaker #6: agreements. It looks like you've negotiated approximately half your delivery by year 5 to come from 5 contracts. You talk about another 10 being talked about, so where would you like to get those framework agreements to in terms of the coverage of your partnership delivery?
Gwenna Jones: You talk about another 10 being talked about. So where would you like to get those framework agreements to in terms of the coverage of your partnership delivery? Second of all, your 2031 target is an operating profit target, not a PBT. Is there some inference there in terms of JVs that we should be thinking about? Then thirdly, on the long term, the GBP 300 million average daily debt, is that the right level of debt for a business that is anticipated to have capital employed of GBP 1.5 billion?
Speaker #6: Second of all, your 2031 target is an operating profit target, not a PBT. Is there some inference there in terms of JVs that we should be thinking about?
Speaker #6: And then thirdly, on the long term, the $300 million average daily debt, is that the right level of debt for a business that is anticipated to have capital employed of $1.5 billion?
Speaker #6: And then short-term capital employed in the southeast of England. How much is it? Can you give us a number? That would be very helpful.
Gwenna Jones: Then short term, capital employed in the South East of England, how much is it? Can you give us a number? That would be very helpful. The South East of England, slide 40 says 2,900 plots to exit. There is 10,000 in the chart, the next page. Can you just bridge the gap between that? The last one. Forgive me, last one. On the new covenant, in terms of the headroom that is due the last Friday of every month. How many times in the last six months have you got near to that? Just to give us an idea of the sensitivity of that covenant.
Gwenna Jones: Then short term, capital employed in the South East of England, how much is it? Can you give us a number? That would be very helpful. The South East of England, slide 40 says 2,900 plots to exit. There is 10,000 in the chart, the next page. Can you just bridge the gap between that? The last one. Forgive me, last one. On the new covenant, in terms of the headroom that is due the last Friday of every month. How many times in the last six months have you got near to that? Just to give us an idea of the sensitivity of that covenant.
Speaker #6: The southeast of England, slide 41. Slide 40 says 2,900 plots to exit. There's 10,000 in the chart the next page. Can you just bridge the gap between that?
Speaker #6: And the last one, Forgive me, last one. On the new covenants in terms of the headroom that's due sort of the last Friday of every month, how many times in the last 6 months have you got near to that, just to give us an idea of the sensitivity of that covenant?
Speaker #5: So on the partner slide where we showed the agreements with the partners, the wheel included the 5 that we'd negotiated and the 10 that we're negotiating.
Adam Daniels: On the partner slide where we showed the agreement for the partners, the wheel included the five that we negotiated and the 10 that we are negotiating. So Stephen, I do not know if you want to give a little bit of detail on progress and expectation on those agreements.
Adam Daniels: On the partner slide where we showed the agreement for the partners, the wheel included the five that we negotiated and the 10 that we are negotiating. So Stephen, I do not know if you want to give a little bit of detail on progress and expectation on those agreements.
Speaker #5: So, Stephen, I don't know if you want to give us a bit of a sense of that. A little bit of detail on progress and expectation on those agreements.
Speaker #5: Thanks, Adam. We think that 12 to 15 of those strategic development agreements is the right volume. It intensifies our relationship with those organisations and gives both of us visibility of opportunities and visibility of committing capacity.
Stephen Teagle: Thanks, Adam. We think that 12 to 15 of those strategic development agreements is the right volume. It intensifies our relationship with those organizations and gives both of us visibility of opportunities and visibility of committing capacity. Outside of that, we will continue to work with partners that we already work with, but we expect the bulk of what we do will be through those partners that we have those strategic agreements with. But 12 to 15 is about the right bandwidth for us to achieve what we want to within this plan.
Stephen Teagle: Thanks, Adam. We think that 12 to 15 of those strategic development agreements is the right volume. It intensifies our relationship with those organizations and gives both of us visibility of opportunities and visibility of committing capacity. Outside of that, we will continue to work with partners that we already work with, but we expect the bulk of what we do will be through those partners that we have those strategic agreements with. But 12 to 15 is about the right bandwidth for us to achieve what we want to within this plan.
Speaker #5: Outside of
Speaker #3: that, we will continue to work with partners that we already work with, but we expect the bulk of what we do will be through those partners with— that we have those strategic agreements.
Speaker #7: Agreements with, but 12 to 15 is about the right bandwidth for us to achieve what we want to within this plan.
Speaker #6: How many homes would that be though? Because that looks like it's 4,000 homes by year 5, and you're looking to deliver 7,000. That says 5 strategic development agreements, so if we get to 12, does that get to 7,000?
Gwenna Jones: What level of homes would that be then. Because that looks like it is 4,000 homes by year 5, and you are looking to deliver-
Gwenna Jones: What level of homes would that be then. Because that looks like it is 4,000 homes by year 5, and you are looking to deliver-
Adam Daniels: Seven. Yeah.
Adam Daniels: Seven. Yeah.
Gwenna Jones: That says 5 strategic development agreements. If we get to 12, does that get to 7,000?
Gwenna Jones: That says 5 strategic development agreements. If we get to 12, does that get to 7,000?
Speaker #7: So if we get to 12, it's dependent upon the scale of ambition of each of those partners. So I don't want to call that yet because obviously there's they're working through their SAHP agreements.
Stephen Teagle: If we get to 12, it is dependent upon the scale of ambition of each of those partners. I do not want to call that yet because obviously they are working through their SAHP agreements.
Stephen Teagle: If we get to 12, it is dependent upon the scale of ambition of each of those partners. I do not want to call that yet because obviously they are working through their SAHP agreements.
Speaker #7: What's important to recognise is some of those partners are strategic partners, they're within those 33. And some of them are not strategic partners and rely on our grant allocation, so it's a mix of the two.
Will Jones: What is important to recognize is some of those partners are strategic partners. They are within those 33, and some of them are not strategic partners and rely on our grant allocation. It is a mix of the two.
Will Jones: What is important to recognize is some of those partners are strategic partners. They are within those 33, and some of them are not strategic partners and rely on our grant allocation. It is a mix of the two.
Speaker #5: I think the next one was on guidance in 31, Glynis. So we showed on the tiles originally AOP of 450. This slide confirms guidance APBT of 400, so there's no sort of
Adam Daniels: I think next one was on guidance in 2031, Glynis. We showed on the tiles originally AOP of GBP 450 million. This slide confirms guidance APBT of GBP 400 million. It is probably presentation more than anything.
Adam Daniels: I think next one was on guidance in 2031, Glynis. We showed on the tiles originally AOP of GBP 450 million. This slide confirms guidance APBT of GBP 400 million. It is probably presentation more than anything.
Speaker #3: No, it's probably presentation more than anything. The reason why we tend to talk about AOP for longer term is because that's part of the WOCE calculation.
Tim Lawlor: The reason why we tend to talk about AOP for longer term is because that is part of the ROCE calculation. But then our primary measure is APBT to try and avoid all the confusion that we have around joint ventures.
Tim Lawlor: The reason why we tend to talk about AOP for longer term is because that is part of the ROCE calculation. But then our primary measure is APBT to try and avoid all the confusion that we have around joint ventures.
Speaker #3: And but then we've— our primary measure is APBT to try and avoid all the confusion that we have around joint ventures. Capital type in the South, Tim?
Adam Daniels: Capital tie-up in the South, Tim, can you talk?
Adam Daniels: Capital tie-up in the South, Tim, can you talk?
Speaker #3: Yeah, I haven't got the number precisely to mind. I think it's somewhere between £750 million and £1 billion. Next one was what? Covenant headroom question.
Tim Lawlor: Yeah, I haven't got the number precisely to mind. I think it's somewhere between three quarters of a billion and GBP 1 billion. Next one was what covenant headroom question. Unclear, Glynis, you're referring to the additional covenant that's been. I didn't mention this in the presentation, but within the covenant waiver, we've agreed to a minimum headroom of GBP 70 million at month end. We don't believe that that is, because we tend to get our income in towards the end of the month. That is not an additional constraint. It's not something that we've got close to in the past.
Tim Lawlor: Yeah, I haven't got the number precisely to mind. I think it's somewhere between three quarters of a billion and GBP 1 billion. Next one was what covenant headroom question. Unclear, Glynis, you're referring to the additional covenant that's been. I didn't mention this in the presentation, but within the covenant waiver, we've agreed to a minimum headroom of GBP 70 million at month end. We don't believe that that is, because we tend to get our income in towards the end of the month. That is not an additional constraint. It's not something that we've got close to in the past.
Speaker #3: So just so I'm clear, Glynis, you were referring to the additional covenant that's been— So I didn't mention this in the presentation, that within the covenant waiver, we've agreed to a minimum headroom of £70 million.
Speaker #3: At month end. Now, we don't believe that that is— because we tend to get our income in towards the end of the month, that is not an additional constraint.
Speaker #3: So it's not something that we've got close to in the past.
Speaker #5: The £300 million in terms of average daily debt, is that the right number? I think that gives us the right level of flexibility and investment in the business for a balance sheet that size and the profit we want to deliver.
Gwenna Jones: The GBP 300 million in terms of average daily debt, is that the right number?
Gwenna Jones: The GBP 300 million in terms of average daily debt, is that the right number?
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I think that gives us the right level of flexibility and investment in the business for a balance sheet that size and the profit we want to deliver. I think it's a sensible target. We talked about keeping average net debt below EBIT as a general rule, but in all the modeling we've done, GBP 300 million feels like a sensible number and the right balance between debt and delivery of the business.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I think that gives us the right level of flexibility and investment in the business for a balance sheet that size and the profit we want to deliver. I think it's a sensible target. We talked about keeping average net debt below EBIT as a general rule, but in all the modeling we've done, GBP 300 million feels like a sensible number and the right balance between debt and delivery of the business.
Speaker #5: So I think it's a sensible target. We talked about keeping average net debt below EBIT as a sort of general rule, but in all the modelling we've done, £300 million feels like a sensible number and the right balance between debt and delivery of the business.
Speaker #6: To exit the '50s, £2,900 on slide 40, and then it goes up to £10,000, slide 41.
Gwenna Jones: The sites to exit the Southeast, 2,900 on slide 40, then it goes up to 10,000, slide 41.
Gwenna Jones: The sites to exit the Southeast, 2,900 on slide 40, then it goes up to 10,000, slide 41.
Adam Daniels: I can't find this slide here. Are you on about the graph of the land bank runoff, Glynis? This one?
Adam Daniels: I can't find this slide here. Are you on about the graph of the land bank runoff, Glynis? This one?
Speaker #5: Are you on about the, the sort of graph of the land bank runoff, Glynis? This one? Yeah, okay, so this here, um, Yeah, so 2,700 is the total private units that will exit as part of this plan.
Gwenna Jones: Yeah. The slide 40 and 41.
Gwenna Jones: Yeah. The slide 40 and 41.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. This here. Yeah. 2,700 is the total private units that will exit as part of this plan. This one shows the whole entire land bank. This is private, other tenures, joint ventures, et cetera. This is the whole land bank in the Southeast, of which 2,700 to wind down in those first couple of years.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. This here. Yeah. 2,700 is the total private units that will exit as part of this plan. This one shows the whole entire land bank. This is private, other tenures, joint ventures, et cetera. This is the whole land bank in the Southeast, of which 2,700 to wind down in those first couple of years.
Speaker #5: This one shows the whole entire land bank. So this isn't private, other tenures, joint ventures, etc. So this is the whole land bank in the South East, of which 2,700 to wind down in those first couple of years.
Speaker #7: Yeah, Charlie Campbell at Steeple. Just a couple, really. First one, quite a big question. In terms of the underperforming sites, you've talked a lot about them and gave us some, some very helpful examples, but it wasn't quite clear to me whether the underperformance is fundamentally a kind of people problem, that people made bad decisions, or it was a system problem, that the system wasn't picking up the bad decisions.
Charlie Campbell: Yeah. Charlie Campbell at Stifel. Just a couple, really. First one, quite a big question. In terms of the underperforming sites, you talked a lot about them and gave us some very helpful examples, but it wasn't quite clear to me whether the underperformance is fundamentally a kind of people problem, that people made bad decisions, or it was a system problem that the system wasn't picking up the bad decisions. Just wonder if you could help me with that a bit and to understand the cultural problems behind some of those underperformance.
Charlie Campbell: Yeah. Charlie Campbell at Stifel. Just a couple, really. First one, quite a big question. In terms of the underperforming sites, you talked a lot about them and gave us some very helpful examples, but it wasn't quite clear to me whether the underperformance is fundamentally a kind of people problem, that people made bad decisions, or it was a system problem that the system wasn't picking up the bad decisions. Just wonder if you could help me with that a bit and to understand the cultural problems behind some of those underperformance.
Speaker #7: So I just wonder if you could help me with that a bit and to understand the sort of the
Speaker #5: cultural problems behind some of those underperformers? I think decision-making is probably the one I would lean towards. A real push to grow the business at pace, and perhaps an assumption that it works over here, so it'll work over there, and a decision that we'd speculate on that basis.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I think decision making is probably the one I would lean towards. A real push to grow the business at pace and perhaps an assumption that it works over here, so it'll work over there. A decision that we'd speculate on that basis. I'd say that was the main area. Clearly, we've done a huge amount of work on our controls and I'm comfortable with the controls we've got. I think with a slightly different set of decision making principles there, we can improve the consistency of delivery across the whole business.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I think decision making is probably the one I would lean towards. A real push to grow the business at pace and perhaps an assumption that it works over here, so it'll work over there. A decision that we'd speculate on that basis. I'd say that was the main area. Clearly, we've done a huge amount of work on our controls and I'm comfortable with the controls we've got. I think with a slightly different set of decision making principles there, we can improve the consistency of delivery across the whole business.
Speaker #5: So I'd say that was the main area. Clearly, we've done a huge amount of work on our controls, and I'm comfortable with the controls we've got, and I think with a slightly different set of decision-making principles there, we can improve the consistency of delivery across the whole business.
Speaker #7: And then the supplementary to that, which is, are you happy then that you've got the right people in place to consistently buy new land in at the
Charlie Campbell: And then the supplementary to that, are you happy then that you've got the right people in place to consistently buy new land in at the 18% gross margin that chart requires?
Charlie Campbell: And then the supplementary to that, are you happy then that you've got the right people in place to consistently buy new land in at the 18% gross margin that chart requires?
Speaker #5: 18% gross margin that chart requires? We've got excellent land teams. I'm very, very confident of that. We slimmed down those land teams to be focused geographically in different ways, We've got excellent land teams across the country, and I think that section of the pie chart that shows that almost 6% of the business is performing well shows that we've got some very good land teams out there.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. We've got excellent land teams. I'm very, very confident of that. We slim down those land teams to be focused geographically in different ways. We've got excellent land teams across the country, and I think that section of the pie chart that shows that almost 60% of the business is performing well, shows that we've got some very good land teams out there buying very good land, delivering some very good returns.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. We've got excellent land teams. I'm very, very confident of that. We slim down those land teams to be focused geographically in different ways. We've got excellent land teams across the country, and I think that section of the pie chart that shows that almost 60% of the business is performing well, shows that we've got some very good land teams out there buying very good land, delivering some very good returns.
Speaker #5: Buying very good land, delivering some very good returns. Thank you. And then on the one on the reduction in capital employed,
Charlie Campbell: Yep. Thank you. On the reduction in capital employed, clearly we could do some maths on the land part of that, but can you just help us a bit on the WIP, and how much of that reduction comes from WIP reduction?
Charlie Campbell: Yep. Thank you. On the reduction in capital employed, clearly we could do some maths on the land part of that, but can you just help us a bit on the WIP, and how much of that reduction comes from WIP reduction?
Speaker #7: Clearly, we could do some maths on the land part of that, but can you just help us a bit on the WIP and how much of that reduction comes from WIP reduction?
Speaker #7: So if we— on the
Tim Lawlor: So on the debt reduction slide, maybe just go. It takes too long. On slide 58, we have given a sense there of the reduced WIP elements. So we are expecting about GBP 100 million to come out of the overall WIP balance to reduce our net debt.
Tim Lawlor: So on the debt reduction slide, maybe just go. It takes too long. On slide 58, we have given a sense there of the reduced WIP elements. So we are expecting about GBP 100 million to come out of the overall WIP balance to reduce our net debt.
Speaker #3: On the debt reduction slide, maybe we'll just go— well, this takes too long. On slide 58, We've given a sense there of where— of the reduced WIP elements.
Speaker #3: So we're expecting about £100 million to come out of the overall WIP balance to reduce our net debt.
Speaker #5: And that's across the group, or is that mainly a Southeast issue? Again, just to help us— that's across the group. Bearing in mind we've already made a decent amount of progress this year on sort of private WIP.
Charlie Campbell: And that is across the group or is that mainly a Southeast issue again? Just to again, help us.
Charlie Campbell: And that is across the group or is that mainly a Southeast issue again? Just to again, help us.
Adam Daniels: That is across the group. But bearing in mind, we have already made a decent amount of progress this year on private WIP. So that is a further amount that adds on top of that.
Adam Daniels: That is across the group. But bearing in mind, we have already made a decent amount of progress this year on private WIP. So that is a further amount that adds on top of that.
Speaker #5: So that's a sort of further amount that adds on top of that. Okay, thank you.
Charlie Campbell: Okay. Thank you.
Charlie Campbell: Okay. Thank you.
Speaker #7: Thanks, it's Will Jones from Rothschild & Co. Redburn. I think 3 or 4 as well, please. The first is whether you could run us through your underlying assumptions for the 2027 target in terms of sales rates, price versus cost, and, and so on, please?
Will Jones: Thanks. It is Will Jones from Rothschild & Co Redburn. I think three or four as well, please. The first is whether you could run us through your underlying assumptions for the 2027 target in terms of sales rates, price versus cost, and so on, please.
Will Jones: Thanks. It is Will Jones from Rothschild & Co Redburn. I think three or four as well, please. The first is whether you could run us through your underlying assumptions for the 2027 target in terms of sales rates, price versus cost, and so on, please.
Speaker #5: Yep, sales rate target in '27 is 0.52. Assumed. And we have, in all those projects I've talked about, obviously today's costs and today's values with the relevant allowances for inflation and contingencies you would expect.
Adam Daniels: Yep. Sales rate target in 2027 is 0.52, assumed. We have in all those projects I have talked about, obviously today's cost and today's values with the relevant allowances for inflation and contingencies you would expect. So we are assuming broadly moderated conditions between now and then.
Adam Daniels: Yep. Sales rate target in 2027 is 0.52, assumed. We have in all those projects I have talked about, obviously today's cost and today's values with the relevant allowances for inflation and contingencies you would expect. So we are assuming broadly moderated conditions between now and then.
Speaker #5: So we're assuming broadly moderated conditions between now and then.
Speaker #7: Second was just around discounting generally. I think you gave us a figure of 7% or so in the first half trading update. Where's that trending today?
Will Jones: Second was just around discounting generally. I think you gave us a figure of 7% or so in the H1 trading update. Where is that trending today? Does it need to carry on for longer given the Southeast exit? Maybe just add to that where we are at the moment on PRS discounts. Just give me a point earlier about bond yields.
Will Jones: Second was just around discounting generally. I think you gave us a figure of 7% or so in the H1 trading update. Where is that trending today? Does it need to carry on for longer given the Southeast exit? Maybe just add to that where we are at the moment on PRS discounts. Just give me a point earlier about bond yields.
Speaker #7: Does it need to carry on for longer, given the Southeast exit, and maybe just add to that where we are at the moment on PRS discounts, just given your point earlier about bond yields.
Speaker #5: Yeah, okay. On discounting, it's nudged up slightly to nearer 8% as a percentage year-to-date. Does need to continue. The southern shift has clearly been taken as a charge.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. On discounting, it nudged up slightly to near 8% year to date. It doesn't need to continue. The southern shift has clearly been taken as a charge, so that is covered now, and we will exit that business through that mix of open market sale, speeding up the open market sale, selling to partners, and perhaps selling a bit of land. But that, we have taken a one-time discount that allows us to do that and then pull those levers as we see fit over the next 18 months in order to exit that position. PRS, we have done a number of PRS deals through the summer. We are seeing discounts between 10% and 15% in PRS. There are a number of companies out there that are wanting more than that, clearly, and are pushing in the market conditions to do deals at lower than that.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. On discounting, it nudged up slightly to near 8% year to date. It doesn't need to continue. The southern shift has clearly been taken as a charge, so that is covered now, and we will exit that business through that mix of open market sale, speeding up the open market sale, selling to partners, and perhaps selling a bit of land. But that, we have taken a one-time discount that allows us to do that and then pull those levers as we see fit over the next 18 months in order to exit that position. PRS, we have done a number of PRS deals through the summer.
Speaker #5: And so that is sort of covered now, and we'll exit that business through that mix of open market sale, speeding up the open market sale, selling to partners, and perhaps selling a bit of land.
Speaker #5: But that— it's, it's— we've taken a one-time discount and allows us to do that and then pull those levers as we see fit over the next 18 months in order to exit that position.
Speaker #5: And PRS, we have done a number of PRS deals through the summer. We're seeing discounts between 10% and 15% on PRS. There's a number of companies out there that are wanting more than that, clearly, and are pushing in the market conditions to do deals at lower than that.
Adam Daniels: We are seeing discounts between 10% and 15% in PRS. There are a number of companies out there that are wanting more than that, clearly, and are pushing in the market conditions to do deals at lower than that.
Speaker #5: That's part of the shift to make sure we're only doing those deals that bring us the relevant quality. So a reason why we're focusing on making sure we negotiate the correct positions on our PRS and affordable rental.
Adam Daniels: That is part of the shift to make sure we are only doing those deals that bring us the relevant quality. So, the reason why we are focusing on making sure we negotiate the correct positions on our PRS and affordable deals.
Adam Daniels: That is part of the shift to make sure we are only doing those deals that bring us the relevant quality. So, the reason why we are focusing on making sure we negotiate the correct positions on our PRS and affordable deals.
Speaker #5: models.
Speaker #7: The last one's really just, just high level, I suppose. Clearly the group's been through a lot in the last couple of years, and a lot of it has played out in public.
Will Jones: The last one is really just high level, I suppose. Clearly, the group has been through a lot in the last couple of years, and a lot of it has played out in public. Just wondering how you would assess the state of your stakeholder relationships, be it the partners as customers, but particularly also the supply chain.
Will Jones: The last one is really just high level, I suppose. Clearly, the group has been through a lot in the last couple of years, and a lot of it has played out in public. Just wondering how you would assess the state of your stakeholder relationships, be it the partners as customers, but particularly also the supply chain.
Speaker #7: Just wondering how you would assess the state of your
Speaker #5: kind of stakeholder relationships, be it the partners, you as customers, but particularly also the supply chain? I mean, it's probably my biggest observation since I took the role is that the external noise is very different to the internal discussions.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. It is probably my biggest observation since I took the role is that the external noise is very different to the internal discussions. I have been out and visited eight regions in the last eight weeks who I did not work with before to meet people and see people on the ground. The supply chain are extremely happy working for Vistry. We work with thousands of different suppliers, subcontractors, and they all very much value the relationship. The partner relationships are there to be seen by some of the framework conversations and the Homes England work that has already been evidenced. So, I think the relationships and standing of the business is not in line with what you are seeing externally in the press. Not only from my experience, but from experiences across the LT and from our senior leadership team.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. It is probably my biggest observation since I took the role is that the external noise is very different to the internal discussions. I have been out and visited eight regions in the last eight weeks who I did not work with before to meet people and see people on the ground. The supply chain are extremely happy working for Vistry. We work with thousands of different suppliers, subcontractors, and they all very much value the relationship.
Speaker #5: You know, I've been out and visited 8 regions in the last 8 weeks who I didn't work with before to meet people and see people on the ground, and the supply chain are extremely happy working for Vistry.
Speaker #5: You know, we work with thousands of different suppliers, subcontractors, and they all very much value the relationship. The partner relationships are there to be seen by some of the framework conversations and the Homes England work that you've already been evidenced.
Adam Daniels: The partner relationships are there to be seen by some of the framework conversations and the Homes England work that has already been evidenced. So, I think the relationships and standing of the business is not in line with what you are seeing externally in the press. Not only from my experience, but from experiences across the LT and from our senior leadership team.
Speaker #5: And so I think the sort of relationships and standing of the business is not in line with what you're seeing externally in the press.
Speaker #5: Not only from my experience, but from experiences across the ELT and from our senior leadership team.
Speaker #8: Ami Galla from UBS. A few questions from me. The first one, slightly similar to Charlie's question, why do you think open market in Southeast cannot work?
Ami Galla: Ami Galla from UBS. A few questions from me. The first one slightly similar to Charlie's question. Why do you think open market in Southeast cannot work? Historically, I can understand it was a function of the land that you bought or the sort of price points that you locked into. As you think about new investments, is it because the intake margins are not there with the sort of land opportunities that you see in the Southeast, or is it the sort of product type that you are offering is not something that you think fundamentally doesn't work?
Ami Galla: Ami Galla from UBS. A few questions from me. The first one slightly similar to Charlie's question. Why do you think open market in Southeast cannot work? Historically, I can understand it was a function of the land that you bought or the sort of price points that you locked into. As you think about new investments, is it because the intake margins are not there with the sort of land opportunities that you see in the Southeast, or is it the sort of product type that you are offering is not something that you think fundamentally doesn't work?
Speaker #8: Historically, I can understand it was a function of the land that you bought or the sort of price points that you locked into, but as you think about new investments, is it because the intake margins are not there?
Speaker #8: With the sort of land opportunities that you see in the Southeast, or is it the sort of product type that you're offering is not something that you think fundamentally doesn't work?
Speaker #8: Yes, a couple of things.
Speaker #5: It's a combination of issues. Firstly, land values in the Southeast are much higher, so pound note investment out the door and capital tie-up is greater in that part of the country than it perhaps is in the Midlands and the North.
Adam Daniels: Yes, a combination of issues. Firstly, land values in the Southeast much higher. So pound note investment out the door and capital tie up is greater in that part of the country than it perhaps is in the Midlands and the North. Secondly, more difficult in the Southeast from a planning perspective to get to that standardized product that you expect. More expectation in that part of the world for slightly different design code, et cetera. So bringing that standardized product is more tricky. The third issue is the difference in value, even if you are achieving the same discount percentage between your private product and your mixed tenure product. So at the moment, we are trying to sell very expensive private houses on sites that are predominantly mixed tenure, and that is proving a challenge.
Adam Daniels: Yes, a combination of issues. Firstly, land values in the Southeast much higher. So pound note investment out the door and capital tie up is greater in that part of the country than it perhaps is in the Midlands and the North. Secondly, more difficult in the Southeast from a planning perspective to get to that standardized product that you expect. More expectation in that part of the world for slightly different design code, et cetera. So bringing that standardized product is more tricky. The third issue is the difference in value, even if you are achieving the same discount percentage between your private product and your mixed tenure product. So at the moment, we are trying to sell very expensive private houses on sites that are predominantly mixed tenure, and that is proving a challenge.
Speaker #5: Secondly, more difficult in the Southeast from a planning perspective to get to that standardized product that you expect. More expectation in that part of the world for slightly different design code, etc., etc.
Speaker #5: Standardised product is more tricky. And the third issue is the difference in value, even if you're achieving the same discount percentage between your private product and your mixed tenure product.
Speaker #5: So at the moment, we're trying to sell, you know, very expensive private houses on sites that are predominantly mixed tenure, and that is proving a challenge.
Speaker #5: It's an even bigger challenge in this market, but my view is, in a normal market, that will still continue to be a challenge. In other parts of the country, that gap between the values of open market and pre-sold are smaller, and therefore we tend to see that sales paces are quicker and are maintained even in poor market conditions.
Adam Daniels: It's an even bigger challenge in this market, but my view is in a normal market, that will still continue to be a challenge. In other parts of the country, that gap between the values of open market and pre-sold are smaller, and therefore we tend to see that sales paces are quicker and are maintained even in poor market conditions.
Adam Daniels: It's an even bigger challenge in this market, but my view is in a normal market, that will still continue to be a challenge. In other parts of the country, that gap between the values of open market and pre-sold are smaller, and therefore we tend to see that sales paces are quicker and are maintained even in poor market conditions.
Speaker #8: Second was just a clarification on a couple of points. I think in your outlook slide, you've kind of said FY27 guidance assuming stable market conditions.
Ami Galla: Second was just a clarification on a couple of points. I think in your outlook slide, you have kind of said FY27 guidance, assuming stable market conditions. Do you mean stable versus the market that we see today, or is it largely a year-on-year comment that you are making?
Ami Galla: Second was just a clarification on a couple of points. I think in your outlook slide, you have kind of said FY27 guidance, assuming stable market conditions. Do you mean stable versus the market that we see today, or is it largely a year-on-year comment that you are making?
Speaker #8: Do you mean stable versus the market that we see today, or is it largely a year-on-year comment that you're making? Stable versus the market we see today.
Adam Daniels: stable versus the market we see today.
Adam Daniels: stable versus the market we see today.
Speaker #8: Okay.
Ami Galla: Okay. And the-
Ami Galla: Okay. And the-
Speaker #3: I think what we're talking about there is open market conditions. We are expecting that the partner market will be better in '27 than '26, as we see some of the benefit coming through from the Affordable Housing programme.
Tim Lawlor: To add on that one, I think what we are talking about there is open market conditions.
Tim Lawlor: To add on that one, I think what we are talking about there is open market conditions.
Adam Daniels: Yeah.
Adam Daniels: Yeah.
Ami Galla: Okay.
Ami Galla: Okay.
Tim Lawlor: We are expecting that the partner market will be better in 2027 than 2026, as we see some of the benefit coming through from the affordable housing program. So that is part of the uplift in 2027.
Tim Lawlor: We are expecting that the partner market will be better in 2027 than 2026, as we see some of the benefit coming through from the affordable housing program. So that is part of the uplift in 2027.
Speaker #3: So that's part of the uplift in '27. Okay, thank you. Another clarification is the land write-offs incrementally in the second half. Is that $340 million?
Ami Galla: Okay. Thank you. Another clarification is the land write-offs incrementally in H2. Is that GBP 345 million that you had presented in the FY26 slide in terms of the land adjustments as well as the Southeast runoff?
Ami Galla: Okay. Thank you. Another clarification is the land write-offs incrementally in H2. Is that GBP 345 million that you had presented in the FY26 slide in terms of the land adjustments as well as the Southeast runoff?
Speaker #8: $345 million that you had presented in the FY26 slide in terms of the land adjustments as well as the Southeast runoff? Yes, so that includes land
Speaker #3: and WIP adjustments, land and WIP and inventory adjustments. So, yeah, the form of those adjustments is partly inventory, partly provisions if you haven't got any inventory left, so you're making some
Tim Lawlor: Well, that includes land and WIP adjustments and the land and WIP and inventory adjustments. The form of those adjustments is partly land inventory, it is partly provisions. If you have not got any inventory left, you are making some provisions. But it is mainly balance sheet related, yeah.
Tim Lawlor: Well, that includes land and WIP adjustments and the land and WIP and inventory adjustments. The form of those adjustments is partly land inventory, it is partly provisions. If you have not got any inventory left, you are making some provisions. But it is mainly balance sheet related, yeah.
Speaker #8: provisions, but it's mainly balance sheet related here. Capital employed in London, I think you touched upon one of the slides that you expected to reduce, but Can you give us a color of where does that sit today?
Ami Galla: Capital employed in London, I think you touched upon in one of the slides that you expected to reduce, but can you give us a color of where does that sit today?
Ami Galla: Capital employed in London, I think you touched upon in one of the slides that you expected to reduce, but can you give us a color of where does that sit today?
Speaker #5: I've probably got the exact figure today. It's fluctuated between £200 and £300 million in previous years, and we've brought that down quite a lot in recent times, and we'll keep it between £100 and £150 million.
Adam Daniels: I probably cannot give you the exact figure today. It has fluctuated between 200 and 300 million in previous years, and we have brought that down quite a lot in recent times, and we will keep it between 100 and 150 as we move forward.
Adam Daniels: I probably cannot give you the exact figure today. It has fluctuated between 200 and 300 million in previous years, and we have brought that down quite a lot in recent times, and we will keep it between 100 and 150 as we move forward.
Speaker #8: And the last one, just a clarification in terms of your supply chain and the sort of discussions that you've had in light of the sort of profitability that we see in the market.
Ami Galla: Okay. Last one, just a clarification. In terms of your supply chain and the sort of discussions that you've had in light of the sort of profitability that we see in the market so far, have you had to change credit terms with them?
Ami Galla: Okay. Last one, just a clarification. In terms of your supply chain and the sort of discussions that you've had in light of the sort of profitability that we see in the market so far, have you had to change credit terms with them?
Speaker #5: So far, have you had to change credit terms with them? No, no impact on any sort of payments to subcontractors or the credit terms.
Adam Daniels: No. No impact on any sort of payments to subcontractors or the credit terms. There was some noise externally previously, but that hasn't impacted any of the pricing or the payment terms we've got with any of the supply chain.
Adam Daniels: No. No impact on any sort of payments to subcontractors or the credit terms. There was some noise externally previously, but that hasn't impacted any of the pricing or the payment terms we've got with any of the supply chain.
Speaker #5: There was some noise externally previously. That hasn't impacted any of the pricing or the payment terms we've got with any of the supply chain.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Ami Galla: Thank you.
Ami Galla: Thank you.
Speaker #7: Thank you. Adrian Kearsey, Pamir Libram. 2 questions from me, probably one for Tim. On slide 15, you've got your— the bridge. How much cash tax are you assuming with regard to that sort of profit after tax number?
Adrian Kearsey: Thank you. Adrian Kearsey, Panmure Gordon. Two questions from me. Probably one for Tim. On slide 58, you've got the bridge. How much cash tax are you assuming with regard to that sort of profit after tax number?
Adrian Kearsey: Thank you. Adrian Kearsey, Panmure Gordon. Two questions from me. Probably one for Tim. On slide 58, you've got the bridge. How much cash tax are you assuming with regard to that sort of profit after tax number?
Speaker #3: Yeah, in doing this, it's a fairly rough calculation. We're assuming about a 20% tax rate, and the reality is we've got a nice big tax credit from all these write-offs.
Tim Lawlor: Yeah, in doing this, it is a fairly rough calculation. We are assuming about a 20% tax rate.
Tim Lawlor: Yeah, in doing this, it is a fairly rough calculation. We are assuming about a 20% tax rate.
Speaker #3: That will reduce the amount of tax going out. So if anything, I think we're erring on the conservative side, but 20%, you can assume.
Adam Daniels: The reality here is we have got a nice big tax credit from all these write-offs that will reduce the amount of tax going out. If anything, I think we are erring on the conservative side, but 20% you can assume.
Adam Daniels: The reality here is we have got a nice big tax credit from all these write-offs that will reduce the amount of tax going out. If anything, I think we are erring on the conservative side, but 20% you can assume.
Speaker #3: Okay. And the second question
Adrian Kearsey: Okay. The second question probably relates around to slide 46, where you have given the breakdown of the regional offices. You are taking the number of regional offices from 25 to 12, and at the same time imposing greater discipline. What kind of day-to-day functions are you going to retain in the regional offices? How much goes to the site, and then how much goes to the center?
Adrian Kearsey: Okay. The second question probably relates around to slide 46, where you have given the breakdown of the regional offices. You are taking the number of regional offices from 25 to 12, and at the same time imposing greater discipline. What kind of day-to-day functions are you going to retain in the regional offices? How much goes to the site, and then how much goes to the center?
Speaker #7: probably relates around to slide 46, where you're given the breakdown of the regional offices. You're taking the number of Regional offices from 25 to 12, and at the same time imposing greater discipline.
Speaker #7: What kind of day-to-day functions are you going to retain in? The regional offices, how much goes to the site, and then how much it goes to the centre?
Speaker #7: Yeah, okay. So land moves out of the regions into divisions.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. Land moves out of the regions into divisions, so different geographical oversight of the land teams. Those people are looking wider across geographical patch, really focused on quality of opportunity. All the other functions, build, customer service, commercial, technical sales, et cetera, finance, still stay in those regional management teams. What we will see is a shift of the operational base teams out to sites. I expect the commercial teams, technical teams, customer service teams, sales teams out on site supporting those construction teams on a day-to-day basis. We will get an enhanced level of control at site level, and therefore, I think that will improve on that basis. Those regions more focused, taking land away from them on the operating quality of the business.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. Land moves out of the regions into divisions, so different geographical oversight of the land teams. Those people are looking wider across geographical patch, really focused on quality of opportunity. All the other functions, build, customer service, commercial, technical sales, et cetera, finance, still stay in those regional management teams. What we will see is a shift of the operational base teams out to sites. I expect the commercial teams, technical teams, customer service teams, sales teams out on site supporting those construction teams on a day-to-day basis. We will get an enhanced level of control at site level, and therefore, I think that will improve on that basis. Those regions more focused, taking land away from them on the operating quality of the business.
Speaker #5: different geographical oversight of the land teams. Those people are looking wider across the geographical patch, really focused on quality of opportunity. All the other functions, build, construction, build, customer service, commercial, technical, sales, etc., finance, still stay in those regional management teams.
Speaker #5: But what we'll see is a shift of the operational operational-based teams out to sites. So I expect the commercial teams, technical teams, customer service teams, sales teams out on site supporting those construction teams on a day-to-day basis.
Speaker #5: We'll get an enhanced level of control at site level, and therefore I think that'll improve on that basis. And those regions more focused taking land away from them on the operating quality of the business.
Speaker #5: And so, you know, I think historically there's been a view that if you're in-house building, you need lots of regional offices around the place.
Adam Daniels: I think historically there has been a view that if you are in house building, you need lots of regional offices around the place. In my view and the work we have done on the information is, it is the quality of the project teams that really make the difference here. The management teams need to oversee and provide strategy and steer the business. But if you get the quality of the project teams right and the quality of the project returns right, clearly the add up across the board will give a good quality business.
Adam Daniels: I think historically there has been a view that if you are in house building, you need lots of regional offices around the place. In my view and the work we have done on the information is, it is the quality of the project teams that really make the difference here. The management teams need to oversee and provide strategy and steer the business. But if you get the quality of the project teams right and the quality of the project returns right, clearly the add up across the board will give a good quality business.
Speaker #5: In my view, and the work we've done on the information is, it's the quality of the project teams that really make the difference here.
Speaker #5: And the management teams need to oversee and provide strategy and steer the business. But if you get the quality of the project teams right and the quality of the project returns right, clearly they add up across the board, will give a good quality business.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Adrian Kearsey: Thank you.
Adrian Kearsey: Thank you.
Speaker #6: Alistair Stewart from Progressive Equity Research. A couple of quick questions, I think. First of all, A couple of questions ago, you said the market assumptions for FY27 were stable open market.
Alastair Stewart: Alastair Stewart from Progressive Equity Research. A couple of quick questions, I think. First of all, a couple of questions ago, you said the market assumptions for FY27 were stable, open market, and better partner funding. Within the partner funded, how do you see the PRS market, just for completeness? Secondly, on slide 36, you have got 8,000 to 9,000 Registered Providers, 0.5 to 1 with local authorities. With the emphasis in government now on council housing, I would have imagined that would have shifted a bit from the RPs to local authorities. Any thoughts on that?
Alastair Stewart: Alastair Stewart from Progressive Equity Research. A couple of quick questions, I think. First of all, a couple of questions ago, you said the market assumptions for FY27 were stable, open market, and better partner funding. Within the partner funded, how do you see the PRS market, just for completeness? Secondly, on slide 36, you have got 8,000 to 9,000 Registered Providers, 0.5 to 1 with local authorities. With the emphasis in government now on council housing, I would have imagined that would have shifted a bit from the RPs to local authorities. Any thoughts on that?
Speaker #6: and better partner-funded. Within the partner-funded, how do you see the PRS market, just for completeness? And Secondly, on slide 36, you've got 8,000 to 9,000 rednecks.
Speaker #6: with registered providers, 0.5 to 1 with local authorities. You know, with the emphasis in government now on council housing, I would have imagined that would have shifted a bit from the RPs to local
Speaker #5: authorities. Any thoughts on that? Yeah, okay, so in PRS, not an assumption that PRS improves for the first half of next year, assuming some return of the PRS market in the second half of next year, but I wouldn't say that next year's wider improvements are based on a huge bounce back in the PRS market.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. In PRS, not an assumption that PRS improves through the H1 of next year, assuming some return on the PRS market in the H2 of next year. But I would not say that next year's wider improvements are based on a huge bounce back in the PRS market. Got very good confidence in the sort of medium term of PRS demand. Demand is huge. Lots of interactions with PRS providers, but just want to wait for those quality of offers to be in the right place on enough schemes to bring that forward. In relation to the mix between RP and local authorities, they have announced the SAHP, which is focused around RPs. They are clearly considering what to do with the balance. But I do not think there is confirmation either way of how that will work, how that might flow out.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. Okay. In PRS, not an assumption that PRS improves through the H1 of next year, assuming some return on the PRS market in the H2 of next year. But I would not say that next year's wider improvements are based on a huge bounce back in the PRS market. Got very good confidence in the sort of medium term of PRS demand.
Speaker #5: I've got very good confidence in the sort of medium term of PRS demand. Demand is huge, lots of interactions with PRS providers, but just want to wait for those quality of offers to be in the right place on enough schemes to bring that forward.
Adam Daniels: Demand is huge. Lots of interactions with PRS providers, but just want to wait for those quality of offers to be in the right place on enough schemes to bring that forward. In relation to the mix between RP and local authorities, they have announced the SAHP, which is focused around RPs. They are clearly considering what to do with the balance. But I do not think there is confirmation either way of how that will work, how that might flow out.
Speaker #5: In relation to the mix between RP and local authorities, they've announced the SEHP, which is focused around LPs. They're clearly considering what to do with the balance.
Speaker #5: But I don't think there's confirmation either way of how that will work, how that might flow out. They're clearly reviewing how they might be able to make that work a bit more locally.
Adam Daniels: They are clearly reviewing how they might be able to make that work a bit more locally. Our view is that the slide we put up about volumes is based on the fact they have given out this SAHP to RPs rather than through local authorities. I think interesting, and I will come to Stephen shortly, but interesting that, when they announced the SAHP, there were some local authority awards in there, but also they linked together how much of that investment came through mayors and through devolution. There is clearly a view that they want to invest it in the right areas, but currently, no official step to say, "We are not going to give it to RPs, we are going to give it in global authorities." That may change, but there is a lot of work to do before that becomes the case. Stephen, anything you would add?
Adam Daniels: They are clearly reviewing how they might be able to make that work a bit more locally. Our view is that the slide we put up about volumes is based on the fact they have given out this SAHP to RPs rather than through local authorities.
Speaker #5: But our view is that the slide we'd put up about volumes is based on the fact they've given out this SEHP to RPs rather than through local authorities.
Speaker #5: Interesting, and I'll come to Stephen shortly, but interesting that when they announced the SEHP, there was some local authority awards in there, but also they linked together how much of that investment came through mayors and through devolution.
Adam Daniels: I think interesting, and I will come to Stephen shortly, but interesting that, when they announced the SAHP, there were some local authority awards in there, but also they linked together how much of that investment came through mayors and through devolution. There is clearly a view that they want to invest it in the right areas, but currently, no official step to say, "We are not going to give it to RPs, we are going to give it in global authorities." That may change, but there is a lot of work to do before that becomes the case. Stephen, anything you would add?
Speaker #5: So there's clearly a view that they want to see it invested in the right areas, but currently no sort of official step to say we're not going to give it to RPs, we're going to give it to local authorities.
Speaker #5: That may change, but there's a lot of work to do before that becomes the case. Stephen, anything you'd add?
Stephen Teagle: Yeah. The SAHP, the GBP 9 billion that has been distributed, has gone primarily to Registered Providers. There are three local authorities included there that have received funding. What we know is that the government's position is very clear, Andy Burnham's position is very clear, that they are looking to provide funding back through particularly the established combined authorities, those strategic mayoral authorities. We are already engaging with all 11 of those authorities. We already have a number of schemes with some of them, and we expect the relationship with those combined authorities to deepen over the course of this plan.
Stephen Teagle: Yeah. The SAHP, the GBP 9 billion that has been distributed, has gone primarily to Registered Providers. There are three local authorities included there that have received funding. What we know is that the government's position is very clear, Andy Burnham's position is very clear, that they are looking to provide funding back through particularly the established combined authorities, those strategic mayoral authorities. We are already engaging with all 11 of those authorities. We already have a number of schemes with some of them, and we expect the relationship with those combined authorities to deepen over the course of this plan.
Speaker #7: The SEHP, the £9 billion that has been distributed, has gone primarily to registered providers. There are 3 local authorities included there that have received funding.
Speaker #7: What we know is that the government's position is very clear, Andy Burnham's position is very clear, that they're looking to provide funding back through particularly the established combined authorities, those strategic mayoral authorities, and we're already engaging with all 11 of those authorities.
Speaker #7: We already have some— a number of schemes with some of them, and we expect the relationship with those combined authorities to deepen over the course of this plan.
Speaker #6: So in theory, over time, that balance could shift a little bit between RPs and— Yeah, I think there'll be a central role for Homes England.
Alastair Stewart: So in theory, over time, that balance could shift a little bit between RPs and.
Alastair Stewart: So in theory, over time, that balance could shift a little bit between RPs and.
Stephen Teagle: Yeah, I think there will be a central role for Homes England.
Stephen Teagle: Yeah, I think there will be a central role for Homes England.
Speaker #7: in the way that those funds are distributed and in overseeing how that coalescence of investment works. But undoubtedly, as well as our relationship with Homes England, our relationship with those combined authorities is going to be important because they will be directly commissioned schemes going forward.
Alastair Stewart: Yeah
Alastair Stewart: Yeah
Stephen Teagle: in the way that those funds are distributed and in overseeing how that coalescence of investment works. Undoubtedly, as well as our relationship with Homes England, our relationship with those combined authorities is going to be important because they will be directly commissioning schemes going forward.
Stephen Teagle: in the way that those funds are distributed and in overseeing how that coalescence of investment works. Undoubtedly, as well as our relationship with Homes England, our relationship with those combined authorities is going to be important because they will be directly commissioning schemes going forward.
Speaker #9: Hi, I'm Rebecca Parker from Goldman. I just wanted to ask more about the shift to open market tenure. Given that, I guess, if you exclude the south of England, that would probably be even a little bit higher.
Rebecca Parker: Hi, Rebecca Parker from Goldman. I just wanted to ask more about the shift to open market tenure, just given that, I guess if you exclude the south of England, that would probably be even a little bit higher. I also wanted to just clarify, on one of the slides, it said new joint ventures only undertaken where the JV partner brings the land. Just some more color on that. Thirdly, how confident are you in that GBP 470 million charge? If we were to see a further deterioration in market conditions, could we see that increase? What is the likelihood that we would see further charges in 2027?
Rebecca Parker: Hi, Rebecca Parker from Goldman. I just wanted to ask more about the shift to open market tenure, just given that, I guess if you exclude the south of England, that would probably be even a little bit higher. I also wanted to just clarify, on one of the slides, it said new joint ventures only undertaken where the JV partner brings the land. Just some more color on that. Thirdly, how confident are you in that GBP 470 million charge? If we were to see a further deterioration in market conditions, could we see that increase? What is the likelihood that we would see further charges in 2027?
Speaker #9: I also wanted to just clarify on one of the slides, it said new joint ventures only undertaken where the JV partner brings the land.
Speaker #9: Just some more colour on that. And thirdly, how confident are you in that $470 million charge? If we were to see a further deterioration in market conditions, could we see that increase?
Speaker #9: And what's the likely timing of that?
Speaker #5: Likelihood that we would see further charges in 27. Okay, so the shift to open market previously we talked about mixed 35 to 65, so overall not a huge.
Adam Daniels: Well, the shift to open market. Previously, we talked about a mix of 35% to 65%, so overall not a huge move in the mix between the two. You are quite right. If you take out some accounts, it becomes slightly more in the balance. When you focus on lower value, lower land price open market, the impact on the balance sheet is therefore lighter. You can afford to do a slightly higher percentage of open market to protect your margin for a similar amount of capital investment. Because we will be moving to those areas of the country where sales price will be lower, it will allow us to do that additional open market without any more capital and continue to lighten the business.
Adam Daniels: Well, the shift to open market. Previously, we talked about a mix of 35% to 65%, so overall not a huge move in the mix between the two. You are quite right. If you take out some accounts, it becomes slightly more in the balance. When you focus on lower value, lower land price open market, the impact on the balance sheet is therefore lighter. You can afford to do a slightly higher percentage of open market to protect your margin for a similar amount of capital investment. Because we will be moving to those areas of the country where sales price will be lower, it will allow us to do that additional open market without any more capital and continue to lighten the business.
Speaker #5: move in the mix between the two. You're quite right, if you take out some counties, it becomes slightly more in the balance. But when you focus on lower value, lower land price open market, the impact The impact on the balance sheet is therefore lighter.
Speaker #5: So you can afford to do a slightly higher percentage of open market to protect your margin for a similar amount of capital investment. So because we'll be moving to those areas of the country where sales price will be lower, it'll allow us to do that additional open market without any more capital and continue to lighten the business.
Speaker #5: So yes, outside of some counties, you probably have slightly higher mix than 60/40, as we talked about, to get the overall balance. But all focused on those areas, we'll be able to keep the capital light along those sites that I talked about where max cash tie-up is low and ROCEs are high.
Adam Daniels: Yes, outside of some counties, you probably have a slightly higher mix than 60/40, as we talked about, to get the overall balance. All focused on those areas, we will be able to keep the capital light and on those sites that I talked about where max cash tie-up is low and ROCEs are high. On the 470, Tim, I do not know if you can comment.
Adam Daniels: Yes, outside of some counties, you probably have a slightly higher mix than 60/40, as we talked about, to get the overall balance. All focused on those areas, we will be able to keep the capital light and on those sites that I talked about where max cash tie-up is low and ROCEs are high. On the 470, Tim, I do not know if you can comment.
Speaker #3: On the £470 million, Tim, I don't know if you can comment. Well, at the moment, it's still being worked through. Obviously, we're not putting loads of optimistic assumptions in there, and give ourselves a big risk that we have to top it up later.
Tim Lawlor: Well, at the moment, it is still being worked through. Obviously, we are not putting loads of optimistic assumptions in there to give ourselves a big risk that you have to top it up later. The exposure within that 470 to open market assumptions is not that significant anyway. A lot is around getting the costs right and making sure that we are looking at the timings of sites right. Sure, 470 will not be the final number, but it will be because it will get trued up to a more accurate number, as you can see they are very big buckets, but we would not expect it to be significantly different. In terms of FY27, to the extent that there are elements within there that are site margin reductions rather than just impairments, there will be some flow through to 2027, which is taken account of in arriving at the GBP 185 million guidance for next year.
Tim Lawlor: Well, at the moment, it is still being worked through. Obviously, we are not putting loads of optimistic assumptions in there to give ourselves a big risk that you have to top it up later. The exposure within that 470 to open market assumptions is not that significant anyway.
Speaker #3: The exposure within that £470 million to open market assumptions isn't that significant anyway. A lot is around getting the costs right and making sure that we're looking at the timings of sites right.
Tim Lawlor: A lot is around getting the costs right and making sure that we are looking at the timings of sites right. Sure, 470 will not be the final number, but it will be because it will get trued up to a more accurate number, as you can see they are very big buckets, but we would not expect it to be significantly different. In terms of FY27, to the extent that there are elements within there that are site margin reductions rather than just impairments, there will be some flow through to 2027, which is taken account of in arriving at the GBP 185 million guidance for next year.
Speaker #3: So sure, £470 million won't be the final number, but it'll be— because it'll get trued up to a more accurate number. You can see they're very big buckets, but we wouldn't expect it to be significantly different.
Speaker #3: In terms of FY27, to the extent that there are elements within there that are site margin reductions rather than just impairments, there will be some flow-through to '27, which is taken account of in arriving at the 185 guidance for next year.
Speaker #9: Yeah, and then just the clarification on new JVs having to tender their own land. So it's a shift towards the fact that when we do joint ventures, we want
Rebecca Parker: Yeah. Then just a clarification on new JVs having to tender their own land.
Rebecca Parker: Yeah. Then just a clarification on new JVs having to tender their own land.
Adam Daniels: It is a shift towards the fact that when we do joint ventures, we want parties to all bring something to the table. We have used joint ventures in different ways in the past. We are very good at working on JVs with our partners. We can create very good returns that we therefore share, but we want the partners to bring something along as well. The land being one of that pieces, but also perhaps the acquisition of the affordable plots on that site as well. It is just trying to make sure the joint ventures are focused around the balance between our expertise and house associations expertise as well, and land is a key contributor to that.
Adam Daniels: It is a shift towards the fact that when we do joint ventures, we want parties to all bring something to the table. We have used joint ventures in different ways in the past. We are very good at working on JVs with our partners. We can create very good returns that we therefore share, but we want the partners to bring something along as well. The land being one of that pieces, but also perhaps the acquisition of the affordable plots on that site as well. It is just trying to make sure the joint ventures are focused around the balance between our expertise and house associations expertise as well, and land is a key contributor to that.
Speaker #5: parties to all bring something to the table. So we've used joint ventures in different ways in the past. We're very good at working on JVs with our partners.
Speaker #5: We can create very good returns that we therefore share. But we want the partners to bring something along as well. So the land being one of those pieces, but also perhaps the acquisition of the affordable plots on that site as well.
Speaker #5: It's just trying to make sure the joint ventures are focused around the balance between our expertise and the housing association's expertise as well. And land is a key contribution.
Speaker #5: to that.
Speaker #3: Thanks.
Rebecca Parker: Thanks.
Rebecca Parker: Thanks.
Speaker #6: Thank you. Emily Biddle from Barclays. I've got 2, please. Firstly, I just wanted to come back on the guidance for next year of £185 million PBT.
Emily Biddulph: Thank you. Emily Biddulph from Barclays. I have got two, please. Firstly, I just wanted to come back on the guidance for next year of GBP 185 million PBT, and just see if you could help us sort of bridge that a little bit more. In your list of potential exceptionals for the second half of this year, sorry, I do not have the number in front of me, but I think it was about GBP 250 million, GBP 300 million of potential write-downs on resulting from the CEO review of sort of reduced future profitability. It sort of feels from that like you should have a whole chunk coming through in the relative near term that is sort of effectively at zero margin.
Emily Biddulph: Thank you. Emily Biddulph from Barclays. I have got two, please. Firstly, I just wanted to come back on the guidance for next year of GBP 185 million PBT, and just see if you could help us sort of bridge that a little bit more. In your list of potential exceptionals for the second half of this year, sorry, I do not have the number in front of me, but I think it was about GBP 250 million, GBP 300 million of potential write-downs on resulting from the CEO review of sort of reduced future profitability. It sort of feels from that like you should have a whole chunk coming through in the relative near term that is sort of effectively at zero margin.
Speaker #6: Just see if you could help us bridge that a little bit more. In your list of potential exceptionals for the second half of this year— sorry, I don't have the number in front of me, but I think it was about £250 million total.
Speaker #6: £300 million of potential write-downs resulting from the CEO review of sort of reduced future profitability. It sort of feels from that like you should have a whole chunk coming through in the relative near term that's sort of effectively at zero margin.
Speaker #6: So am I wrong on that, or is just the phasing of that really long? So the impact on next year isn't actually huge, or are there other sort of big offsets against it that I need to bear in mind?
Emily Biddulph: Am I wrong on that, or is just the phasing of that really long, so the impact on next year is not actually huge or are there other big offsets against it that I need to bear in mind?
Emily Biddulph: Am I wrong on that, or is just the phasing of that really long, so the impact on next year is not actually huge or are there other big offsets against it that I need to bear in mind?
Speaker #6: No, I think, I think
Tim Lawlor: No, I think within the 470 of total, there is the area in the pink here which we are talking about. Most of that is impairment and provision. A large chunk of this relates to the Southeast, where already the margins are very slim because of some of the issues we have experienced in the past. Hence, most of the pain is taken in year 1 rather than carried through. I think our rough estimate for next year is the 470 has about an £80 million impact in 2027. That is the ongoing margin implication of that write-down.
Tim Lawlor: No, I think within the 470 of total, there is the area in the pink here which we are talking about. Most of that is impairment and provision. A large chunk of this relates to the Southeast, where already the margins are very slim because of some of the issues we have experienced in the past. Hence, most of the pain is taken in year 1 rather than carried through. I think our rough estimate for next year is the 470 has about an £80 million impact in 2027. That is the ongoing margin implication of that write-down.
Speaker #3: Within the £470 million of total, there's the area in the pink here which we're talking about. Most of that is impairments and provisions, so a large chunk of this relates to the Southeast, where already the margins are very slim because of some of the issues we've experienced in the past.
Speaker #3: Hence, most of the pain is taken in year 1 rather than carried through. I think our rough estimate for next year is the £470 million has about an £80 million impact in '27.
Speaker #3: So that's the ongoing margin implication of that write-down. So then it takes you to the bridge question. So if we take the, the 165 here on this chart as the starting point, we'd expect that you take off the 80 of the pink stuff that goes through for next year, takes you down to 85 to get to 185.
Emily Biddulph: Okay.
Emily Biddulph: Okay.
Tim Lawlor: That takes you to the bridge question. If we take the 165 here on this chart as the starting point, we would expect that you take off the 80 of the pink stuff that goes through for next year. It takes you down to 85. To get to £185, that £100 million then of improvement, half of that, around 50, comes from restructuring savings and the overhead savings. The other 50 will come from overall trading and overall performance. Less bad news, better partner market, and better overall mix.
Tim Lawlor: That takes you to the bridge question. If we take the 165 here on this chart as the starting point, we would expect that you take off the 80 of the pink stuff that goes through for next year. It takes you down to 85. To get to £185, that £100 million then of improvement, half of that, around 50, comes from restructuring savings and the overhead savings. The other 50 will come from overall trading and overall performance. Less bad news, better partner market, and better overall mix.
Speaker #3: That £100 million hence then of improvements. Half of that, around 50, comes from restructuring savings and the overhead savings. The other 50 will come from overall trading and overall performance.
Speaker #3: So less bad news, better partner market, and better overall mix. Perfect, thank you. Um, now my second question was just on the covenant.
Emily Biddulph: Perfect. Thank you. My second question was just on the covenant. I appreciate you have given us that new covenant of £70 million headroom and said you have cleared that really comfortably in the past. I remember at the start of this year, you said the average net debt was relatively high in the first couple of months of the year because there were various outflows, like there were land creditor outflows, et cetera, in the first few months. As we look through to the first few months of next year, if we are mindful that the $100 million US PP needs settling, are there other outflows we need to bear in mind or just as you look at cash flow forecast for the early part of next year, how does it look?
Emily Biddulph: Perfect. Thank you. My second question was just on the covenant. I appreciate you have given us that new covenant of £70 million headroom and said you have cleared that really comfortably in the past. I remember at the start of this year, you said the average net debt was relatively high in the first couple of months of the year because there were various outflows, like there were land creditor outflows, et cetera, in the first few months. As we look through to the first few months of next year, if we are mindful that the $100 million US PP needs settling, are there other outflows we need to bear in mind or just as you look at cash flow forecast for the early part of next year, how does it look?
Speaker #6: And I appreciate you've given us that new covenant, the £70 million headroom, and sort of said you've cleared that really comfortably in the past, but I remember at the start of this year you said the average net debt was relatively high in the first couple of months of the year because there were various outflows, like there were land creditor outflows, etc., in the first few months.
Speaker #6: As we look through to the full few months of next year, if we're mindful that the $100 million USPP needs settling, are there other outflows we need to sort of bear in mind, or to sort of, as you look at cash flow forecasts,
Speaker #5: after the early part of next year, how does it look? Yeah, I mean, the difference between this year, '27 and '26, will be that due to the reduction in land buying through this year, you've got a lot less land payments coming out in January.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I mean, the difference between this year, 2027, and 2026 will be that due to the reduction in land buying through this year, you have a lot less land payments coming out in January. January of 2026 had a large amount of land payments coming out, which flowed us down into that debt position. As we have not bought forward land through this year, we tend to have those land payments in January as well. There is a huge amount less for those in January. So we would not expect to see that trough down in January as we have seen in the past, and therefore very confident that we are in good position ahead of the PP rolling off at the end of February.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I mean, the difference between this year, 2027, and 2026 will be that due to the reduction in land buying through this year, you have a lot less land payments coming out in January. January of 2026 had a large amount of land payments coming out, which flowed us down into that debt position. As we have not bought forward land through this year, we tend to have those land payments in January as well. There is a huge amount less for those in January. So we would not expect to see that trough down in January as we have seen in the past, and therefore very confident that we are in good position ahead of the PP rolling off at the end of February.
Speaker #5: So January '26 had a large amount of land payments coming out, which flowed us down into that debt position. As we've not bought forward land through this year, we tend to have those land payments in January as well.
Speaker #5: There's a huge amount less for those in January, so we wouldn't expect to see that trough down in January as we've seen in the past, and therefore very confident that we be sort of in good position ahead of the PP rolling off at the end of February.
Speaker #5: And that £70 million at month end was clearly used as part of the going concern review. And everyone absolutely comfortable that that's not a challenge for us.
Adam Daniels: That GBP 70 million at month end was clearly used as part of the going concern review, and everyone absolutely comfortable that that is not a challenge for us. Our month-end positions are never anywhere near the top of our facility. So very comfortable with the cash flow modeling as we go into next year.
Adam Daniels: That GBP 70 million at month end was clearly used as part of the going concern review, and everyone absolutely comfortable that that is not a challenge for us. Our month-end positions are never anywhere near the top of our facility. So very comfortable with the cash flow modeling as we go into next year.
Speaker #5: Our month-end positions are never anywhere near the sort of top of our facility, so very comfortable with the cash flow modelling. as we go into next year.
Speaker #5: Thanks. Hi, Lewis Roxburgh from Goodbody. 3 questions for me, please. First, just to confirm if all of the £470 million future special charges are non-cash as well.
Emily Biddulph: Thanks.
Emily Biddulph: Thanks.
Lewis Roxburgh: Hi, Lewis Roxburgh from Goodbody. Three questions from me, please. First, just to confirm if all of the GBP 470 future special charges are non-cash as well. Secondly, just in the bridge you have given to lower average net debt, what sort of broad assumptions are embedded in the profit line? How much confidence do you have generally given, average net debt has been quite difficult to lower historically and the market outlook is obviously quite challenging. Then the last question is just on some color off the drivers of underperformance in the open sales rate and how do you expect to improve that? I know you mentioned in the Southeast, people are reluctant to pay high prices alongside other tenders. So I know you are exiting that area, but just some other measures you can do to help potentially. Thanks.
Lewis Roxburgh: Hi, Lewis Roxburgh from Goodbody.
Lewis Roxburgh: Three questions from me, please. First, just to confirm if all of the GBP 470 future special charges are non-cash as well. Secondly, just in the bridge you have given to lower average net debt, what sort of broad assumptions are embedded in the profit line? How much confidence do you have generally given, average net debt has been quite difficult to lower historically and the market outlook is obviously quite challenging. Then the last question is just on some color off the drivers of underperformance in the open sales rate and how do you expect to improve that? I know you mentioned in the Southeast, people are reluctant to pay high prices alongside other tenders. So I know you are exiting that area, but just some other measures you can do to help potentially. Thanks.
Speaker #7: Secondly, just in the bridge you've given to lower average net debt, what sort of broad assumptions are embedded in the profit line, and how much confidence do you have generally given you know, average net debt has been quite difficult to lower historically, and the market outlook is obviously quite challenging.
Speaker #7: And then the last question is just on some colour of the drivers of underperformance in the open sales rate and how do you expect to improve that?
Speaker #7: I know you mentioned in the Southeast people are reluctant to pay high prices alongside other tenders. So I know you're exiting that area, but just some, some other measures you can do to help potentially.
Speaker #7: Thanks. Yeah, so non-cash
Adam Daniels: Okay. First go, Bob.
Adam Daniels: Okay. First go, Bob.
Tim Lawlor: Yeah. So non-cash is a term that we've deliberately avoided using in the RNS and today because it's open to interpretation. The 470 that we're taking this year is effectively non-cash this year. In other words, it is not a cash outflow this year. But you might argue that over time, that is GBP 470 million of profit that you're not going to get, which would have been in the form of cash. So effectively, it's lower cash than was previously forecast from here onwards, but it's non-cash in year, if that makes sense.
Tim Lawlor: Yeah. So non-cash is a term that we've deliberately avoided using in the RNS and today because it's open to interpretation. The 470 that we're taking this year is effectively non-cash this year. In other words, it is not a cash outflow this year. But you might argue that over time, that is GBP 470 million of profit that you're not going to get, which would have been in the form of cash. So effectively, it's lower cash than was previously forecast from here onwards, but it's non-cash in year, if that makes sense.
Speaker #3: is a term that we've deliberately avoided using in the RNS and today because it's open to interpretation. The £470 million that we're taking this year, it's effectively non-cash this year.
Speaker #3: In other words, it is not a cash outflow this year. But you might argue that over time, that is £470 million of profit that you're not going to get, which would have been in the form of cash.
Speaker #3: So effectively, it's lower cash than was previously forecast from here onwards, but it's non-cash. Cash in here. If that makes sense. The second one, your second question was around what's in the profit assumptions.
Adam Daniels: Yeah.
Adam Daniels: Yeah.
Tim Lawlor: Well, the second one, your second question was around what's in the profit assumptions. This is built on a steady profile of improvement from the 185 that we're talking about of PBT next year to the PBT of 400 in FY31. So there's not a great hockey stick in that flow. This is built from our models to get from that, as I say, from the 185 through to the 400. Third question is around why we have more confidence around average net debt. Does anyone want to take this?
Tim Lawlor: Well, the second one, your second question was around what's in the profit assumptions. This is built on a steady profile of improvement from the 185 that we're talking about of PBT next year to the PBT of 400 in FY31. So there's not a great hockey stick in that flow. This is built from our models to get from that, as I say, from the 185 through to the 400. Third question is around why we have more confidence around average net debt. Does anyone want to take this?
Speaker #3: Well, this is built on a steady profile of improvement. From the 185 that we're talking about at PBT next year to the PBT of 400 in FY31.
Speaker #3: So it's a, you know, there's not a great hockey stick in that flow. And so this is built from our models that get from that, as I say, from the 185 through to the 400.
Speaker #3: The third question is around why we have more confidence around average net debt. I don't know if you want to take this. Yeah, I mean, I think you've seen in recent periods, we've continued to invest in the business.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I think you've seen in recent periods, we've continued to invest in the business even though talking about lowering net debt, and we've changed that behavior 180 degrees in the last few months. Therefore, that's why the confidence on net debt coming down is there to see, lower investment in land. We're buying land, but only in the terms that I talked about earlier, where you've got that back-to-back partner deal coming in, and therefore the business is naturally generating cash from the big forward order book that we've got. The behaviors in the last six months are very different to what you'd have seen before, hence the confidence to really reduce that net debt as we go through the year-end and into next year and then continue that sort of journey into years beyond.
Adam Daniels: Yeah. I think you've seen in recent periods, we've continued to invest in the business even though talking about lowering net debt, and we've changed that behavior 180 degrees in the last few months. Therefore, that's why the confidence on net debt coming down is there to see, lower investment in land. We're buying land, but only in the terms that I talked about earlier, where you've got that back-to-back partner deal coming in, and therefore the business is naturally generating cash from the big forward order book that we've got. The behaviors in the last six months are very different to what you'd have seen before, hence the confidence to really reduce that net debt as we go through the year-end and into next year and then continue that sort of journey into years beyond.
Speaker #5: Even though talking about lowering net debt. And we've changed that behaviour 180 degrees in the last few months. And therefore, that's why the confidence on net debt coming down is there to see.
Speaker #5: Lower investment in land, buying land, but only in the terms that I talked about earlier, where you've got that back-to-back partner deal coming in, and therefore the business is naturally generating cash from the big forward order book that we've got.
Speaker #5: And so the behaviours in the last 6 months are very different to what you'd have seen before, hence the confidence to really reduce that net debt as we go through the year-end and into next year.
Speaker #5: And then continue that sort of journey into years beyond. On the sales rate, so yes, a slightly different mix away from the Southeast will help, but that said, really focusing around one sales brand and investing in the product, the quality of that sales brand, and making sure that the teams really are well-versed on the benefits of that product and the brand.
Adam Daniels: On the sales rate, yes, a slightly different mix away from the Southeast will help. But that said, really focusing around one sales brand and investing in the product, the quality of that sales brand, and making sure that the teams really are well-versed on the benefits of that product and the brand is a piece of work we've got to do as part of the implementation. I'm very confident that if we invest in that brand, we'll have a real industry-leading sort of product there that we can sell on those mixed tender sites. So there's a piece of work to do to refocus those sales team around that one brand.
Adam Daniels: On the sales rate, yes, a slightly different mix away from the Southeast will help. But that said, really focusing around one sales brand and investing in the product, the quality of that sales brand, and making sure that the teams really are well-versed on the benefits of that product and the brand is a piece of work we've got to do as part of the implementation. I'm very confident that if we invest in that brand, we'll have a real industry-leading sort of product there that we can sell on those mixed tender sites. So there's a piece of work to do to refocus those sales team around that one brand.
Speaker #5: Is a piece of work we've got to do as part of the implementation. I'm very confident that if we invest in that brand, we'll have a real industry-leading sort of product there that we can sell.
Speaker #5: On those mixed tenure sites. So there's a piece of work to do to refocus those sales teams around that one brand. Morning, Peter. I just had Eoghan from Morgan Stanley.
Peter Ajose-Adeogun: Morning. Peter Ajose-Adeogun from Morgan Stanley. Three questions, all land related. First was just quite a bit of color on the owned land bank today. I was just wondering if there was any additional information just around the strategic land bank, any shift there in terms of strategy? Any shift in terms of how you expect strategic land to convert into owned land going forward? The second was just around, I think you mentioned being less speculative on land purchasing and not wanting to hold land for too long before having a partner in place. I just wanted to ask whether that was kind of like a definitive stance, or you would still be maybe nimble in terms of attractive opportunities that came by on an ad hoc basis. The third was just around selling land.
Peter Ajose-Adeogun: Morning. Peter Ajose-Adeogun from Morgan Stanley. Three questions, all land related. First was just quite a bit of color on the owned land bank today. I was just wondering if there was any additional information just around the strategic land bank, any shift there in terms of strategy? Any shift in terms of how you expect strategic land to convert into owned land going forward? The second was just around, I think you mentioned being less speculative on land purchasing and not wanting to hold land for too long before having a partner in place. I just wanted to ask whether that was kind of like a definitive stance, or you would still be maybe nimble in terms of attractive opportunities that came by on an ad hoc basis. The third was just around selling land.
Speaker #5: 3 questions, all land-related. First was just quite a bit of colour on the own use land bank today. I was just wondering if there was any additional information just around the strategic land bank, any shift there in terms of strategy, any shift in terms of how you expect strategic land to convert into owned land going forward.
Speaker #5: The second was just around— I think you mentioned being less speculative on land purchasing, not wanting to
Speaker #7: hold land for too long before having a partner in place. I just wanted to ask whether that was kind of like a definitive stance, or you would still be maybe nimble in terms of attractive opportunities that came by on an ad hoc basis.
Speaker #7: And then the third was just around
Speaker #5: selling land. I know that a lot of your housebuilding peers have talked around walking away or reducing land purchasing at this point in time.
Lewis Roxburgh: I know that a lot of your housebuilding peers have talked around walking away or reducing land purchasing at this point in time. I am just wondering if in this environment you are finding it a bit more difficult to sell land. What land buying appetite from you has been like, and perhaps what corners that appetite in terms of who you are selling to, where that demand has been coming from. Thank you.
Lewis Roxburgh: I know that a lot of your housebuilding peers have talked around walking away or reducing land purchasing at this point in time. I am just wondering if in this environment you are finding it a bit more difficult to sell land. What land buying appetite from you has been like, and perhaps what corners that appetite in terms of who you are selling to, where that demand has been coming from. Thank you.
Speaker #5: I'm just wondering if in this environment you're finding it a bit more difficult to sell land, what land buying appetite from you has been like, and perhaps what corners
Speaker #7: the appetite in terms of who you're selling to, where that demand has been coming from? Thank you. Strategic Land Bank, expect it to still play a good part in our future land delivery.
Adam Daniels: Okay. Strategic land bank, expect it to still play a good part in our future land delivery. Its geographical focus we have got to shift over years to come. Historically, a lot of the strategic land focused in the sort of east of the country, particularly out of Countryside Legacy, which is focused over that side of the patch. Over recent years, we have really tried to refocus the strategic land teams more into the Midlands, the North and the West. So we expect to see those opportunities start to flow through and they are doing, which is positive news. So continue to invest and focus on strategic land, but right locations and right sites that align with what I have talked about today. In relation to a definitive view on that sort of arrangement of back to back, definitely definitive in the short term.
Adam Daniels: Okay. Strategic land bank, expect it to still play a good part in our future land delivery. Its geographical focus we have got to shift over years to come.
Speaker #5: Its geographical focus, we've got to shift over years to come. Historically, a lot of the strategic land focused in the east of the country, particularly out of countryside legacy.
Adam Daniels: Historically, a lot of the strategic land focused in the sort of east of the country, particularly out of Countryside Legacy, which is focused over that side of the patch. Over recent years, we have really tried to refocus the strategic land teams more into the Midlands, the North and the West. So we expect to see those opportunities start to flow through and they are doing, which is positive news. So continue to invest and focus on strategic land, but right locations and right sites that align with what I have talked about today. In relation to a definitive view on that sort of arrangement of back to back, definitely definitive in the short term.
Speaker #5: which is focused over that side of the patch. Over recent years, we've really tried to refocus the strategic land teams more into the Midlands, the North, and the West.
Speaker #5: So we expect to see those opportunities start to come through. Start to flow through, and they are doing, which is positive news. So continue to invest and focus on strategic land, but right locations and right sites that align with what I've talked about.
Speaker #5: Today, in relation to a definitive view on that sort of arrangement of back-to-back, definitely definitive in the short term, bearing in mind the push to deleverage the business.
Adam Daniels: Bearing in mind the push to deleverage the business. If in 3 years' time and the leverage is in a very good place and very consistent and a great land deal came along for a sensible level of investment, smaller numbers than maybe I showed on the screen, you would probably have some flexibility if it was the deal of the century, as it were. But in the short to medium term, certainly really want to be robust about those rules that I talked about earlier. Just on land sales, we talked at the half year about looking to get ourselves out some land positions. I have talked about it today. We have been working through Q3 on quite a big piece of work around reshaping that land bank. We have had excellent interest in that land.
Adam Daniels: Bearing in mind the push to deleverage the business. If in 3 years' time and the leverage is in a very good place and very consistent and a great land deal came along for a sensible level of investment, smaller numbers than maybe I showed on the screen, you would probably have some flexibility if it was the deal of the century, as it were. But in the short to medium term, certainly really want to be robust about those rules that I talked about earlier. Just on land sales, we talked at the half year about looking to get ourselves out some land positions. I have talked about it today. We have been working through Q3 on quite a big piece of work around reshaping that land bank. We have had excellent interest in that land.
Speaker #5: If in 3 years, time and the leverage is in a very good place and very consistent and a great land deal came along for a sensible level of investment, smaller numbers than maybe I showed on the screen, you would probably have some flexibility if it was the deal of the century, as it were.
Speaker #5: But in the short to medium term, certainly really want to be robust about those rules that I talked about earlier. And just on land sales, I mean, we talked at the half-year about looking to get ourselves out of some land positions.
Speaker #5: I've talked about it today. We've been working through Q3 on quite a big deal piece of work around reshaping that land bank. We've had excellent interest in that land.
Speaker #5: I think the difference is between maybe our experience and some of the things you're hearing in the market, our asset quality is very good.
Adam Daniels: I think the difference is between maybe our experience and some of the things you are hearing in the market. Our asset base is of high quality. We bought a lot of land, but we bought some excellent land as well. So we have had a huge number of very high-quality bids on the land we have taken to market. Interest is coming from a few of the PLCs in various different locations. A couple of the larger privately owned businesses as well. We are only selling that land where we think we are getting the right value in return because we know it is of high quality. But I have been very reassured about, A, the interest and, B, the quality of offers we have had on any land that we have taken to market.
Adam Daniels: I think the difference is between maybe our experience and some of the things you are hearing in the market. Our asset base is of high quality. We bought a lot of land, but we bought some excellent land as well. So we have had a huge number of very high-quality bids on the land we have taken to market. Interest is coming from a few of the PLCs in various different locations. A couple of the larger privately owned businesses as well. We are only selling that land where we think we are getting the right value in return because we know it is of high quality. But I have been very reassured about, A, the interest and, B, the quality of offers we have had on any land that we have taken to market.
Speaker #5: Asset base is of high quality. You know, we've bought a lot of land, but we bought some excellent land as well. So we had a huge number of very high-quality bids on the land we're updating to market.
Speaker #5: Interest is coming from, you know, a few of the PLCs in various different locations, a couple of the larger privately owned businesses as well.
Speaker #5: And we're only selling that land where we think we're getting the right value in return, because we know it's of high quality. But I've been very reassured about Aynsley Lam's A, the interest, and B, the quality of offers we've had on any land that we've taken to market.
Speaker #5: Thank you very much. Yeah, I don't think there's any more hands anyway. So we're at 10:30. We've kept you for a couple of hours.
[Analyst]: Thank you very much.
[Analyst]: Thank you very much.
Adam Daniels: Yeah, I don't think there is any more hands anyway. So we are at 10:30. We have kept you for a couple of hours. Thanks very much for your time. Thank you.
Adam Daniels: Yeah, I don't think there is any more hands anyway. So we are at 10:30. We have kept you for a couple of hours. Thanks very much for your time. Thank you.
