Q1 2027 Alpex Solar Ltd Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Solar Limited. Let us now begin the introduction of the management team. We have with us today Mr. Ashwini Sagal, Managing Director.
Speaker #2: Hi everyone.
Speaker #1: Mr. I saw. Mr. Ashwini Sagal, a mechanical engineer from Punjab University, has been a stalwart and pioneer in the field of solar manufacturing. And currently serves as the Director of the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association.
Speaker #1: With consists Adani, Tata, Reliance as its members, among others. He has also served as the President of ISMA for 12 years, and played a pivotal role in advocating for favorable government policies that benefit solar manufacturers like ALMM, ALCM, and ALWM.
Speaker #1: His impeccable reputation within the solar manufacturing industry has solidified his position as a respected industry leader and driving force for the solar manufacturing industry in India.
Speaker #1: Also joining us today is Mr. Aditya Sagal, CEO. Mr. Aditya Sagal has a bachelor's degree in science with a focus on electrical engineering from the prestigious University of California.
Speaker #1: As the CEO of Alpex Solar, Mr. Aditya Sagal has been driving the global export opportunity and is focused on developing newer markets. We have also with us today Mrs. Monica Sagal, Full-Time Director.
Speaker #1: Mr. Vipin Sagal, Director. Ms. Udaya Sagal, CFO. And Sakshi Tomar, Company Secretary. At this moment, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.
Speaker #1: At the time, you may click on the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen to ask a live question. Please note that this conference is recorded.
Speaker #1: I would now like to request Mr. Aditya Sagal, CEO, to discuss the inverse of presentation with everyone. Thank you, and over to you so.
Speaker #2: Good evening, everyone. Thank you for taking our time to join us today for our earnings call. I would like to walk you through our investor deck today and give a rundown of about the company, our expansion plans, as well as our financial close for Q1 of FY 26-27.
Speaker #2: Can we get the next slide? Okay. Alpex Solar is an integrated renewable equipment manufacturer, headquartered out of Greater Noida, with almost two decades of manufacturing experience.
Speaker #2: We cover a majority of the solar value chain with solar module manufacturing being our primary revenue driver, and supported by both forwards and backwards integration.
Speaker #2: Our 2.4 gigawatt and soon-to-be 3.6 gigawatt module lines are supported by in-house aluminum frame manufacturing with a capacity of 12,000 metric tons a year.
Speaker #2: Our soon-to-be commissioned 2.2 gigawatt top-con solar cell line additionally, we are in the business of EPC and IPP, where we have deployed well over 26,000 solar water pumps across India and aggressively working towards deploying 100 megawatts of IPP projects, as well as 115 megawatts of EPC installations.
Speaker #2: To further support our manufacturing, I am proud to share that we recently announced plans to further explore expansion into 5 gigawatt of solar blast, wafer, and ingot manufacturing.
Speaker #2: Next slide. To support MNRE's initiatives of ALMM list 2 to grow the Indian manufacturing sector, we are also aggressively moving towards commissioning of our G12R top-con cell line, where we are targeting a cell efficiency of up to 26.5%.
Speaker #2: Over the last year, we have also introduced not just M10 monoperk and top-con modules, but also G12R modules, up to 640 watt-peak. And both of these are supported by our upstream value chains of solar pump installations, EPC solutions, as well as IPP solutions.
Speaker #2: As for EPC, we do offer within residential industrial and utility scale. Next slide, please. I think you could just roll down to the slide we were at, so we can just continue as is.
Speaker #1: I think you can press F twice. That will start the yes.
Speaker #2: Okay. And a quick update on our solar cell line. We are inching towards commissioning the line, and production will be starting very soon. Over the last few months, while under construction, our core team of engineers has spent time in Taiwan and China getting trained at some of the largest cell manufacturers in the world.
Speaker #2: Additionally, our technology consultants have their teams on-site commissioning the factory as we speak. And they will also be training our team on-site in the next coming months.
Speaker #2: The cell line allows us to remain competitive with ALMM list 2 going into effect end of this year, and it would also allow us to expand our margins.
Speaker #2: The cell line, again, is geared to have a capacity of 2.2 gigawatts, and is spread across 9 lakhs square feet, the line would offer up to 26.5% cell efficiency.
Speaker #2: And would offer fully automated operations using AGVs or automated guided vehicles. Can we get the next slide? And moving over to the financials, this past quarter we closed strong at 500 crores revenue, with an EBITDA of almost 80 crores and a PAT of 40 crores.
Speaker #2: We sustained EBITDA and PAT margins of 15.5 and 8% respectively. While the market has been competitive, we are coming out on top thanks to an increased module capacity, its operational efficiencies, as well as this well-awaited cell line.
Speaker #2: Can we get the next slide? And finally, I would like to briefly look back over our FY 26 performance. Where we closed at over 200 2,200 crores with a PAT of 201 crores.
Speaker #2: Our performance speaks for itself, where our revenue in FY 26 was greater than the sum of revenue for the three previous years, so much so our PAT in 26 was larger than our revenue from FY 23.
Speaker #2: We've also worked hard to maintain margins, growing EBITDA and PAT margins from 6.5 and 2% to 14.7 and 9% respectively. That is all I have for now, and would like to now hand it back over to the team.
Speaker #1: Thank you sir. I will now like to request Mr. Ashwini Sagal, Managing Director, to give his opening remarks. Over to you sir.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Thank you, Karthik. And thank you, everyone, for joining this investors call. And wherein we are going to discuss the performance of the company and the future, what lies ahead of us.
Speaker #3: As you would have seen, the performance is quite great. I would say very nice. Vis-à-vis the scenario, current scenario is somewhat we are passing through some difficult times.
Speaker #3: We are in policy is getting changed, and there is a lot of flux in the market at this moment. But looking at the performance of Alpex, we have done exceedingly well, and we hope to do the same performance in the times to come.
Speaker #3: Thank you, and we are ready for the question answer session for as per the flow of this meeting. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you very much sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Participants who wish to ask questions through audio, can do so by pressing the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen, and wait for your turn to speak.
Speaker #1: Participants are requested to introduce the firm you represent and ask your questions, or give comments. Participants who wish to ask questions via chat, can click on the Q&A icon at the bottom of your screen, and post your questions.
Speaker #1: We are the first question from Mr. Priyamsha. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Hi sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I sir, I just want to understand two things. One is that as you all have already mentioned that we'll be commissioning the cell line, I just wanted to understand what is the kind of potential revenue and peak revenue that we'll see.
Speaker #4: And in how many phases will that ramp up? And the second thing is that our long-range plans of vapors and ingots, realistically, when do you think that, you know, that will be commercialized?
Speaker #4: I understand that it's very far off, but just wanted some picture on that too. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thank you. I didn't get your name.
Speaker #1: Priyamsha, from 3Netras.
Speaker #3: Priyam, thank you, Priyam. Thank you for this question. The thing is like this, that we are going to commence the production of our solar cells, TOPCon G12 R third generation, around 15th of September.
Speaker #3: And we are very happy to share with you all that with all the probability we shall first invoice of our solar cells, will happen around 19th or 20th of September, with all the probabilities.
Speaker #3: And as informed by Aditya, so this is a generation 3 TOPCon cell manufacturing, wherein our we shall be the most competitive manufacturer. Vis-à-vis costs and most efficient manufacturer of TOPCon cells meaning is like this, that we have established this factory at the least cost.
Speaker #3: And at the same time, with the least the cost of manufacturing will be again least, and the selling price will be quite high, vis-à-vis our in the marketplace.
Speaker #3: So we are very proud that the factory is progressing very, very well. And we hope to see good results. So with respect to the selling potential, we will have almost six months of clear manufacturing time for 2.2 gigawatt.
Speaker #3: So that means around one gigawatt of cell will be available for selling in the market. And the market has extremely high appetite for the solar cells.
Speaker #3: So our intention is hello. Hello. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So our intention is to convert all the cells into modules and sell in the market.
Speaker #3: Very small quantity of cells will be sold in the to another manufacturer of solar modules. Since we have operational 2.4 gigawatt of module capacity, and our production capacity of the cell line is 2.2 gigawatt, which is exactly I would say matched.
Speaker #3: So we don't need to go elsewhere to sell the cells. And moreover, it brings in better revenues. So we are convinced that the guidance which we gave in the last meeting, similar meeting, we are going to exceed or meet those numbers.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: And sir, your our longer vision of getting into vapors and ingots.
Speaker #3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I forgot. Sorry, sorry. I forgot that part of the question. So again, I'm at Alpex. We are proud to share that we have already started the process of ingot and vapor manufacturing.
Speaker #3: And our part production should be ready when this ALWM, which is ALMM list 3, is will be enforced. So our manufacturing of 2.5 gigawatt should be operational by that time.
Speaker #3: And the company is take has taken lot of strides towards that. Our building is almost ready. For that. And the plan and technology partner and the selection of machinery et cetera, is already I mean, 70 to 80 percent is already done.
Speaker #3: And we are just awaiting that we finish the I mean, we start the production of solar cells. Once this is done, which is say another a month or so, then we will actively start the process of putting up our vapor and ingot manufacturing.
Speaker #3: As I already informed, this the building is almost ready. So we have taken very big strides in that. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Sir, just one, one last question for vapors and ingots. Will we be doing that from internal approvals, or will at some point will we be raising funds?
Speaker #3: Okay, going by our innovative funding of the solar cell line. So we will deploy the similar strategy, wherein very small debt will be taken on the books.
Speaker #3: And at the same time, our plan to raise more equity or funds from the market will be taken around when we have some more visibility from our cell operations.
Speaker #3: So as of now, there is no plan to sell more equity in the market. Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Abhijit Porwal. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Hello. Am I audible?
Speaker #1: Yes sir, you're audible sir.
Speaker #4: Oh, thank you for the opportunity, sir. Abhijit Porwal, this side from DR Choksi. So first of all, like I want to ask with regards to the margin profile.
Speaker #4: So even though there is a margin pressure in the industry, then like how come Alpex is doing better or performing well as compared to peers like Vikram or Satvik Green?
Speaker #4: Like can you please light up on that?
Speaker #3: Thank you for asking this question. And this I would say is a due to multiple reasons. First of all, we have more almost 18 to 19 years of manufacturing experience.
Speaker #3: In the solar module manufacturing. And at the same time, our capacity is quite less. So there is no we are not in a hurry to fill up the capacity.
Speaker #3: So we do not get into the orders which are less competitive or so those are very competitive. And less remunerative for the company. So we we are picky about the orders which we execute.
Speaker #3: And we we take these orders. So this is the primary reason. That better than our competitors. These competitors are really very very they also I do not say that they are less than us, but they are also very experienced.
Speaker #3: But it is the main reason is that they have really large capacities. And to fill up those large capacities, you tend to take the orders which are less remunerative or less which do not have margin in the business.
Speaker #3: So that is the main reason that our numbers are somewhat better or rather I would say quite good vis a vis. And then the another reason is that we do our own EPC for solar pumps.
Speaker #3: And that business is also doing very well. And then we have some other orders from whole India, which we received way back. When this market was not as competitive as it has become now.
Speaker #3: So these are few reasons, which have contributed towards the better margin for Alpex. Thank you.
Speaker #4: Understood, sir. Like thank you for this elaborated answer. And I just want to ask one more question that like is this kind of margins like are they going to be sustained like into the teen segment or and can you give some guidance for the coming two to three years in terms of margin profile?
Speaker #3: This is also another really wonderful question. And I'm sure all the people who are participating in this investors call will have the same question.
Speaker #3: So I will be elaborating. On this question. And which will give answer to many, many other investors also in this meeting. So the thing is, yes, it is becoming competitive.
Speaker #3: At a module level, it's very big competition. Is happening. Everyone in this industry whosoever is attending this meeting also knows that the module plane vanilla module business is going to be thing of the past.
Speaker #3: The survival is extremely difficult. If you do not have the cells, then the module business will not be able to survive. At least in one or two years from today.
Speaker #3: And we were lucky and at the same time it was our prudent decisions which that we immediately decided to go for the cells. And the cell line is also coming up.
Speaker #3: So if there is a yes, there will be competition. And there is there will be pressure on the margins. For the module business. But the margin is now moving towards cell business.
Speaker #3: And since our cell is almost there, so for Alpex, we don't see any pressure on the margins in the short or in the long run.
Speaker #3: So we will continue enjoying the better margins than the industry. And one more thing which I want to add is that the industry capacity will be decided.
Speaker #3: Total industry capacity will be equivalent to the capacity of solar cells. And that means others extra capacity will will not be able to compete.
Speaker #3: And either they will shut or they will they can as of now, we the plane module manufacture module when plane vanilla module manufacturers they do not have other markets also because you cannot export to USA.
Speaker #3: And the hard and all other markets you have to compete with China. And the China is really really aggressive. On standalone basis, you cannot compete with China in the international market where there is no protection.
Speaker #3: So indirectly, these are exciting times for the industry. Those who are well entrenched in this business and those who have very I would say accurate plans, they will survive and thrive in this market.
Speaker #3: And rather they will expand the businesses and me too or the fence sitters they will have to suffer the markets. So this is my explanation on the future of Alpex as well as industry.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #4: Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir, for your answer and all the best for the coming quarters.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Deepesh Jain. Please go ahead.
Speaker #5: Hello, sir. Good evening.
Speaker #3: Good evening, Deepesh.
Speaker #5: Yeah. My question was first question is considering that cell will come next month. So what would be your revenue and PAT guidance for 27 and then with full capacity in FY28?
Speaker #3: So Deepesh, I already answered this question in my previous response to the previous person. The thing is we will have six months of clear cell business.
Speaker #3: So the cell that means we will have almost a gigawatt of cells. And one gigawatt of DCR panels fetch anywhere around 2,000 300 crore or 2,400 crore.
Speaker #3: So assuming that we do even 70% of that or 60 65% of that, that means we will be doing around 1,000 700 crore. In the last I mean in the H2.
Speaker #3: So H1 Q1 numbers you have got and you can add a Q2 and then this way you can make a quite a good guess where we are going.
Speaker #1: Yes. And for next year we should assume at full capacity. Full revenue.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Next year will be we will have full capacity of 2.2 gigawatt of solar cells. So so assuming that the one gigawatt fetches you 2,000 crore 2,200 crore.
Speaker #3: e. So we we should be able to do 4,000 crore easily. In the next full financial year.
Speaker #5: Okay.
Speaker #1: All the best. And hopefully you will beat your guidance again.
Speaker #3: Hopefully, yes. Yes. In the.
Speaker #1: And secondly, sir, when can we visit as investors we wanted to visit your plant?
Speaker #3: We are going to announce the opening ceremony very soon. I mean maybe very in the beginning of next week. We will announce and some very significant I would not name because we do not have the written confirmation.
Speaker #3: But some high profile politician is going to inaugurate the facility. And so this will happen around 10th or 11th of September. So we would like to invite all of you for this ceremony.
Speaker #3: And you will you can you can visit yourself also on that. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you, sir. Best wishes.
Speaker #3: Thank you very much.
Speaker #1: Thank you. We have the next questions in the line of Rahul Kumar. Please go ahead.
Speaker #6: Hi, sir. Sir, what is the current status of the aluminium project?
Speaker #3: Aluminium?
Speaker #6: Yes, sir.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Aluminium is doing I mean we are producing aluminium frame. In the facility. And we are likely to expand the capacity. To 18,000 tons.
Speaker #3: Per annum. This we will be announcing very soon because standalone basis this unit is also contributing towards the profitability of the company. And we are happy that we again we have become atom nirva in frame manufacturing also.
Speaker #3: Because this is a many if the policy shifts on import of solar frame then we are we are ready to take that also. So being atom nirva in frame is also contributing towards the success of Alpex.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #6: Noted, sir. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Bhavya Shah. Please go ahead. Bhavya Shah, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker #1: Sir, there seems to be no response. We'll move on to the next question. This comes from Shashank Jha. Shashank Jha, your line is unmuted.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead with your question. Sir, I think he has also left a queue. The next question comes from N. Bhagwat. Mr. Bhagwat, your line is unmuted.
Speaker #6: Yes. Thank you for the opportunity. This is Bhagwat from Prosperity Wealth Management. So my question is companies targeting five gigawatt each of solar glass and for ignored capacity by FY30.
Speaker #6: So given that the current model capacity we are targeting to 3.6 gigawatt by FY27, do you target increasing model capacity towards five gigawatt also?
Speaker #3: Bhagwat, thank you for this question. As of now, we have not decided to expand the capacity of solar panels. Because the capacity to add solar panels is not required immediately.
Speaker #3: This can be established very fast if we have the extra orders or there is a bigger demand in the market. So so we will take this decision once we we reach somewhere midway in the next next I mean 27 28 kind of a scenario around September.
Speaker #3: So we'll be taking a decision around that time. Thank you.
Speaker #6: Okay. Thank you for the answer, sir. My next question is like could you please provide the total capex incurred for the 2.2 gigawatt TOPCon cell manufacturing facility?
Speaker #3: Yeah. It is in the public domain also. So we spent almost 890 cr and so that is the numbers which is there.
Speaker #6: Okay. And so what would be our annual depreciation considering this capex amount?
Speaker #3: I may not be the right person to answer that. Actually, can we give this answer actually later on because we don't know I do not want to give a wrong answer.
Speaker #4: Yes, sir. We can request to the investor that they can just write a mail to us so that we can reward on that.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Okay.
Speaker #6: Okay. Sure. Sure. Definitely. If we can if we can ask one more question. So just wanted to understand the just wanted to understand the peak date on a company label as we go forward by let's say FY28, where do we expect our borrowings to be?
Speaker #3: So as informed in my previous answers, we are we do not want to take lot of debt on our books. And we have close financial closure of this project is done in a very innovative way.
Speaker #3: And as of now, our total debt is on the on the this is just 341 odd crores. Because we are still spending some money.
Speaker #3: So it won't be more than 300 50 odd crores or maybe 360 odd crores. The the the debt component on on the cell cell line.
Speaker #3: Cell business.
Speaker #6: Okay. Okay. Sir, thank you so much, sir. These are my questions.
Speaker #3: Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Next question from Bhavya Shah. Bhavya Shah, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead with your question. Bhavya Shah, your line is unmuted.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead with your question. I'm sorry, sir. There is no response again. Next, we have Shashank Jha.
Speaker #6: Hello. Am I audible?
Speaker #1: Yes, sir. You are audible, sir.
Speaker #6: Okay. In one of your slides, third last or fourth slot, you have shown demand supply graph for sale module and ingot and wafers year wise.
Speaker #6: So my question here is that is it including green hydrogen and data center or not?
Speaker #3: Again, a good question. In these slides, there is no addition of green hydrogen and data center. Data center and green hydrogen demand is on top of whatever demand projections are there.
Speaker #3: These are these will be extra demand.
Speaker #6: Okay. And sir, one question that other participant had answered. Asked is regarding the depreciation. So how you are going to take depreciation? So basically sell technology evolve very fast.
Speaker #6: So how many years you will take the depreciation? This is my question.
Speaker #3: Our plan is to take the depreciation within five years. Let me give you a very simple calculation. The cell business is as everybody knows.
Speaker #3: The VIDA margins are around 35 to 40 percent depending among the manufacturer. And with that VIDA, we should be able to depreciate the whole whole plant within next one and a half year or maximum two years.
Speaker #3: But we are going to depreciate in five years because as I informed this is a generation three TOPCon cell manufacturing. So it is still relatively a better newer technology.
Speaker #3: So there is hardly any chance of getting it obsolete. So fast. So five years is again a very conservative number. So we hope that this plant will run at least seven years.
Speaker #3: But we are depreciating in five years. I hope I have given the correct answer.
Speaker #6: Yeah. Yeah. I understood it totally. Sir, one question is regarding the cell plant. So is it production ready? Because I have read two things in different PPTs.
Speaker #6: One is that some inspection is going on and second is that there is some unavailability of materials. Due to some fire incident and due to say this basically geopolitical situation.
Speaker #6: So what is the actual scenario? Is it production ready or inspection going on?
Speaker #3: Well, you would have seen that we have already paid the inspection charges or for getting the certification done in ALCM or ALLM list two.
Speaker #3: So we've already crossed that. But the inspection is yet to get ready. Unfortunately, because of this fire incidents, which was I mean not a very large fire, but still it damaged some critical areas of the plant and so that's why we have a delay of almost a month because of that.
Speaker #3: But we are fully geared for this opening around the as I told around 10th of September, we should be inaugurating the the plant. And then start the production around and then ramp it up in the next 30 days.
Speaker #3: So things are happening at a much rapid pace. Despite some this fire incidents. Otherwise, some somebody asked the question also. The wafers and silver paste, etc.
Speaker #3: So these are also coming. And this will happen as the plan which I already mentioned. So this is happening.
Speaker #6: Okay. Got it, sir. Sir, one last question is regarding that effective capacity and employed capacity. So as per my understanding for sale it is 90 percent.
Speaker #6: So basically out of 2.2 gigawatt, you'll be able to produce 2 gigawatt. But when it comes to module, it is 70 percent roughly. So you will be able to produce 2.5 gigawatt of module.
Speaker #6: So how where are you planning to sell that 500 megawatt of module? Miss, you have extra capacity.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I think you are calculation is quite correct. The in the cell manufacturing, we can reach 95 percent or 96 percent of the name nameplate capacity.
Speaker #3: Because the efficiency of the cell is increasing. And we are going to use the most latest technologies in some of the processes. So when we designed this plant, so we designed the plant with a average efficiency of 25.6 or 25.7 percent.
Speaker #3: But we hope to achieve efficiency of average efficiency of 26 or 26.1 percent. So with that, our capacity again goes up by two, three to four percent.
Speaker #3: So we hope that we will be manufacturing cells around 2.1 gigawatt to 2 gigawatt. So this is the cell capacity versus actual delivered capacity.
Speaker #3: Module, yes, 65 to 70 percent is our regular I mean everywhere it is the same kind. But we we are upgrading the module capacity also because we are one of the oldest manufacturer.
Speaker #3: So by removing one old machine and input with a most recent machine, so we should be able to increase the capacity of our plant by another 300 to 400 megawatt.
Speaker #3: And this is an ongoing process which keeps on happening. So even if there is a slight mismatch, there are some opportunities and there is there are I would say some relationship with other manufacturers also which keep on happening.
Speaker #3: So we don't see much of problem in getting another 500 megawatt of modules manufactured. Thank you.
Speaker #6: Okay. Sir, one last request I have put this request last time also. Is it regarding if you can give us a split of how much module was sold per year wise DCR versus non-DCR ratio?
Speaker #6: It will be very helpful. Include one slide.
Speaker #3: Okay. Next in the Q2 results, we should be able to give you that. Or otherwise, you send us an email and Sakshi will reply on that.
Speaker #3: Immediately, I will not be able to give you. Thank you.
Speaker #6: Yes. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. The next question from the line of Pankaj Satseva. So Pankaj, your line is unmuted. Please go with the question.
Speaker #5: Am I audible here? Good afternoon. Yeah. Hello, sir. Very quick question, sir. I think majority of my questions got answered. My first question now is if you can help us with a little macro picture of how India is shaping up in terms of solar.
Speaker #5: More specially in terms of demand and supply. What we are hearing from market is that a lot of supply is coming and not sure whether demand is going to be matching that supply or not.
Speaker #5: So would love to have your inputs on that. Second, sir, last time you mentioned that in the last call you mentioned that with this new plant coming in, are EBITDA margins are going to substantially improve upon.
Speaker #5: So just wanted to have your views. Are we on track on that or do we see some challenges on that front, sir?
Speaker #3: Okay. A very interesting question. And which I like this question. So the thing is, yes, the module capacity is very high in India. And many people jumped into the bandwagon.
Speaker #3: To again, I would say to take the their company public or easy valuations, high valuations that kind of a scenario made many, many manufac many, many companies even few property dealers, they jump the into the bandwagon and established module manufacturing.
Speaker #3: So so non-serious or those who wanted to make a quick buck kind of a situation happened in this industry also. India gives a lot of opportunity to the solar manufacturers.
Speaker #3: And it is one of the most vibrant manufacturing policy which is been made by the government of India. Just now, yesterday before yesterday in the independent speech, Prime Minister Modi informed that even if our manufacturing is not as competitive but we two reach our goals of Atam Nirbharta, we should manufacture and give reference to slightly more expensive items vis-à-vis cheaper items from China or some other place in the world.
Speaker #3: So the government policy and government intent is very, very, very, very clear that this has to be manufactured in India. And all the supply chain has to be manufactured in India.
Speaker #3: So we started with the solar panel manufacturing. Within two years of our listing, we are already now manufacturing solar cells. Solar frame is also there.
Speaker #3: Our ingot and vapor manufacturing is also happening at a rapid pace. And we so the picture is like this, that the plane vanilla module manufacturer will find it very, very difficult to survive.
Speaker #3: Even with the ALWM in the picture, that is approved list of vapor manufacturers, in the picture, which is happening from the 30th of June, 2028, or 15 gigawatt of vapor manufacturing, whatever happens, before.
Speaker #3: So ALWM will be in place. So so since I was the president of Indian Solar Manufacturers Association for 12 years and we advocated this policy and the government also understood the seriousness of this business, this is not some product which is coming from China.
Speaker #3: This is energy safety or energy security. This is the next oil. So the government is very keen that the complete supply chain happens in India.
Speaker #3: So now in this scenario, so I'm trying to give you a picture. Let us say we have 150 gigawatt of solar panel manufacturers. And ALW ALCM is already in place from the 1st of June is already there.
Speaker #3: And the cell is let us say today is 35 gigawatt. And within next let us say we reach a 50 gigawatt number. So so in that scenario, what will be the capacity?
Speaker #3: Will it be 150 gigawatt or it will be 50 gigawatt?
Speaker #5: Sir, in my analysis, 50.
Speaker #3: Sorry?
Speaker #5: In my analysis, it should be 50.
Speaker #3: Yeah. 50. So so so so so 100 gigawatt will be kind of very they will find it very difficult to survive. So 50 gigawatt.
Speaker #3: Now, I give you another scenario. June 28. So you have ALWM in the picture. And at that time, the vapor manufacturing and ingot manufacturing capacity is let us say 40 gigawatt.
Speaker #3: In June 28, module capacity reaches 200 gigawatt, assuming. And cell reaches 75 gigawatt. And the vapor is just 40 gigawatt. Then what will be the module capacity at that time?
Speaker #5: The module has to be matching those, right? The 40 odd numbers which you have kind of.
Speaker #3: Yeah. So so so this means this means the 35 gigawatt of cell who does not have a vapor also they will also suffer. So that means many, many new factories which are being announced let us say for cell.
Speaker #3: Today they plan a cell manufacturing. And it takes at least 18 months to come up with the cell. So by the time ALWM will be enforced, so that means if you as a manufacturer have to have a cell factory, so my recommendation or this policy says that don't make only cell, make cell and vapor and ingot.
Speaker #3: So you have to manufacture these three things. So I I hope I have explained the scenario in a very clear manner. Where the industry is going.
Speaker #3: So one more thing I would like to add over here. Is so this industry is going to become a in only for the players who are well entrenched in the complete value chain.
Speaker #3: So those who have a complete integration, they will survive. Not only survive, they will thrive also. And they will expand also. And those who will get struck at only one point or one item of the value chain, they will suffer.
Speaker #3: So this is the macro picture of Indian solar manufacturing. Thank you.
Speaker #5: So thank you for this, sir. Very elaborative and very helpful. So nice of you. I my second question was on, sir, margins which you kind of covered in the last call and you mentioned that margins are going to substantially improve with new new plant coming in.
Speaker #5: So are you on track on that, sir?
Speaker #3: Yeah. I already explained one of the to the previous questions. We are on track. And since the cell manufacturing has an EBITDA of 35 to 40 percent, so this will start getting into our balance sheet from the next month or by the end of next month.
Speaker #3: So so we don't foresee much of problem in managing our EBITDA or the PAT margins. So PAT and EBITDA, they will whatever we announced or gave the guidance, so we hope to hope to meet those expectations.
Speaker #3: Or maybe we will exceed those expectations. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Thank you, sir. My last bit is that last call also you covered the migration plan to the main board. So are we on track on that, sir?
Speaker #3: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Good. Good you asked me this question. We are on track. And Sakshi can elaborate on that plan. Sakshi?
Speaker #2: Yes, sir. We are working on the same. And after 15 February, we will complete the target deadline that we have given. For three years.
Speaker #2: So after that, we will file for the migration.
Speaker #3: So yeah.
Speaker #5: Sir, please go ahead, sir.
Speaker #3: No, no, no. I just I mean, the we will get qualified to file our papers on 15th of February and hopefully we will file our documents on 15th of February.
Speaker #3: Itself.
Speaker #5: Fantastic, sir. And typically do we have understanding as to how much time it takes from exchanges for us to have an approval?
Speaker #3: It takes two to three months to get the approval. Let me give you another perspective. We are already doing the all the regulations and meeting all those requirements of the main board only.
Speaker #3: Because we when this was our voluntary thing. So we we yeah. So everything is happening as per the main board only. And once we have this approval, so we will move to the main board very fast.
Speaker #5: So nice of you, sir. Thanks a lot for all this elaboration.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. The next question comes from one of Deepak Mehta. Mr. Mehta, your line is unmuted. Please go with that question. Mr. Mehta, your line is unmuted.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker #3: Hello?
Speaker #5: Is I am audible?
Speaker #1: Yes, you are audible.
Speaker #5: Yeah. Good evening, sir. Very solid performance compared to the players. My first question is around what is the total capacity of module and let's say put is 100 gigawatt.
Speaker #5: So what would be the, you know, in-house player which have, you know, backward manufacturing with solar solar cell as well?
Speaker #3: Yeah. I I didn't didn't get your question.
Speaker #5: Sir, my basic question is I wanted to understand. So right now, let's say total module capacity is 100 gigawatt in India.
Speaker #3: Mm-hmm.
Speaker #5: And if you have any idea how how much, you know, total gigawatt capacity would be with the player or company which have in-house solar cell capacity solar cell manufacturing as well.
Speaker #5: Like we will have two gigawatt solar cell.
Speaker #3: You mean to ask the question how many manufacturers have how much capacity of the cells?
Speaker #5: Yeah. Right.
Speaker #3: So yeah. Yeah. We have the idea. It's around 32 gigawatt is the cell capacity as of now.
Speaker #5: Okay.
Speaker #3: Yeah.
Speaker #5: And what is the demand so right now demand is also equivalent to the total we can say the module, right? Because for each.
Speaker #3: India needs almost 65 to 70 gigawatt of solar panels annually. And.
Speaker #5: Yeah.
Speaker #3: Which is again expanding around at the rate of around 8 to 9 percent. And some gentlemen asked me a question on green hydrogen and data centers.
Speaker #3: So this is additional demand. And then another segment is C and I. Which is also expanding at a rapid pace. So India will need around 70 odd gigawatt of solar panels.
Speaker #3: And will keep on expanding these 70 will become 80 and 80 will become 90 kind of a requirement. And yeah. So demand scenario is.
Speaker #5: Certainly we can we can be sure that there would not be you know, inventory blood in solar cell like by certainly. What we are seeing right now is for module.
Speaker #5: If we come you know, government policy remains same.
Speaker #3: Yeah. So yes. As I explained, the policy is quite intact. It was a I'm re explaining even Prime Minister Modi explained in just two days ago on the independence day speech that Atam Nirvarta is the topmost requirement in this field.
Speaker #3: And so we don't see that there will be policy shift. Why will they change the policy now? India the government of India is meeting all the requirements.
Speaker #3: They want to decouple from China. On this exciting energy field. In all other fields also. For example, drone or some electronic manufacturing. There is so much emphasis that we should manufacture these in India.
Speaker #3: And now that we are covering the whole value chain. And about to break free from the imports. Why will they change at this moment?
Speaker #3: So there is no there is not going to be any change. And at the same time, since the demand profile is quite high, for the cells, and we don't foresee much of problem in selling our cells and there there won't be any glut.
Speaker #3: At least in the next two to three years. And after three years, we will at that time the demand profile will also go up.
Speaker #3: So there is hardly any chance of the glut of solar cells in India.
Speaker #5: And also if I may add,
Speaker #3: Yeah. Yeah. Weapon, please.
Speaker #5: Yeah. इसमें होगा क्या अभी जो लो एफिशिएंसी सेल मैन्युफैक्चरर्स हैं वो भी फेज आउट होगी लाइनें।
Speaker #3: Exactly.
Speaker #5: जो अभी 32 gigawatt की बात कर रहे हैं उसमें से लो एफिशिएंसी सेल मैन्युफैक्चरिंग भी फेज आउट होनी है और वो another one year maybe one and a half year के अंदर another फेज आउट हो जाएंगी या वो अपग्रेड करेंगे हायर एफिशिएंसी पे। So you can explain monopark and topcon also.
Speaker #5: Yeah. Monopark okay. The monopark की जो एफिशिएंसी है वो 23 percent है whereas topcon की 25 and half से 26 and 26.6 and half है। तो जो अभी demand scenario है market में वो topcon की तरफ shift हो रहा है अगर preference रहती है customer की तो first preference topcon की ही रहती है G12 power की। Okay.
Speaker #5: So that's the thing. सर ने बताया कि solar cell की 30 gigawatt की है तो topcon की और total around कितनी होगी right now which any number.
Speaker #5: I'm sorry. तो cell line है that is 2.2 gigawatt topcon cell line है G12 power।
Speaker #3: हमारा monopark नहीं है।
Speaker #5: No, सर मैं industry का पूछ रहा हूँ।
Speaker #3: सर जो विपिन जी बता रहे हैं ना वो ये है कि even monopark धीरे-धीरे बंद हो जाएगा तो वो cell की capacity जो है either defunct हो जाएगी और they will be in incompetitive to cell competitively to other players like us.
Speaker #3: So as explained earlier also so we are coming up with the most efficient and at the same time generation three topcon. So we don't foresee any problem.
Speaker #3: And the market जो आपका question काफी interesting है that कोई glut तो नहीं आ जाएगा cells में वो अभी तीन साल तो नहीं आने वाला। उसके बाद देखेंगे क्या होता है। Thank you.
Speaker #5: और सर एक last question था कि जैसे Buhari Energies ने कहा था कि they are very competitive to China so उनका सिर्फ two to three percent lower है अगर even at global level so any number for Alpex where we stand compared to Buhari Energies in terms of cost of year.
Speaker #3: I I I I have answered this question अगर I explain this question we are a very competitive we are the most competitive manufacturer of solar cell we will be I mean in one month or so so our analysis or our guidance in the cost of manufacturing tells us that we are more or less competitive to with with China also only problem in India is that our raw material cost they have certain inbuilt issues our rate of interest is quite high and our electricity cost is also very high.
Speaker #3: So if these two factors are okay let us say I get the same price which a Chinese manufacturer gets for the electricity and at the same time the rate of interest is also similar to Chinese manufacturer which he gets from their banks.
Speaker #3: So we we should be able to compete with China. Yes but not with the dump products. Dumping is somewhat different. Yeah.
Speaker #5: Thank you. सर very very thankful and one last question सर कुसुम के around क्या चल रहा है सर आप लोगों का कुछ।
Speaker #3: सर कुसुम की नई policy announce हो चुकी है थोड़े दिन में tender आ जाएंगे। There is somewhat a clean season में चला गया है and very soon tenders आने start हो रहे हैं we will give you some good news on that also.
Speaker #3: We are also awaiting that one.
Speaker #5: जी सर। तो कुसुम में हम लोग का कुछ any estimated revenue target for FY27?
Speaker #3: सर पिछले साल हमने 223 करोड़ किया था and इस साल हमारा 500 करोड़ का target था हमारे पास 350 करोड़ के order already आए हुए हैं जो कि हम execute कर रहे हैं और ये tenders अब जैसे ही खुल जाएंगे तो we hope to surpass that also.
Speaker #5: Thank you so much सर best of.
Speaker #3: Thank you thank you very much.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Preecha. Preecha, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker #5: हाँ जी। मैं audible?
Speaker #1: Yes sir, you are audible.
Speaker #5: Yeah. Thank you for giving me an opportunity. Sir, my question was, as you mentioned, 2000 CR revenue can be generated from one gigawatt of cell, right?
Speaker #5: And module will be extra. Is that understanding correct?
Speaker #3: Repeat करेंगे थोड़ा question?
Speaker #5: Sure. Sir, my question is, as you mentioned, one gigawatt of cell could generate 2000 CR of revenue, right? So module will be extra.
Speaker #3: No, no, no, no. Module is 2300 करोड़ per gigawatt DCR. And the cell is 1300 or 1400.
Speaker #5: Okay. So sir, for FY28, we can do like 4000 CR of revenue, right?
Speaker #3: So you mean to say next year 27, 28?
Speaker #5: Yes sir. Yes sir. Or it will be exceed.
Speaker #3: No, no, that is our guidance. In the previous question also I mentioned that.
Speaker #5: Got it. Got it sir. And sir, I have joined late. So could you help me please with the margins? Like what will be EBITDA margins?
Speaker #3: वो भी हमने बता दिया।
Speaker #5: If you could repeat please then it would be helpful sir.
Speaker #3: So the cell business now it is commands an EBITDA of around 35 to 40 percent. And PAT of 20 to 25 percent. And there is a still ample demand in the market.
Speaker #3: And we don't see this margins going down substantially. And we hope to maintain at least for one year this kind of EBITDA or the PAT margins.
Speaker #3: And the next two next year maybe somewhat down. But in the next year it will we will have this kind of guidance on the margins.
Speaker #5: Got it sir. Thank you very much. And all the best.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Thank you very much.
Speaker #1: Thank you very much sir. Due to the positive of time, that will be the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Ashwini Sagal managing director for closing comments.
Speaker #3: I would ask the CFO Uday Sagal for this closing remarks. Thank you. Udaya, please.
Speaker #4: Thank you. Hi everyone. Good evening. Just want to say a big thank you for being here for taking the time to attend this call.
Speaker #4: We're very happy to announce our results. And I would like to thank you all for your continued support and faith in us in Alpex.
Speaker #4: And we'll continue to work hard and and prove that you know we're worth your time and effort. And secondly I think one more thing I'd like to talk about is that as Mr. Sagal mentioned the cell line is about to commence.
Speaker #4: And we're all really excited and looking forward to that happening. So we'll keep you all updated about when that's happening and just continue supporting us and big thank you.
Speaker #4: Thank you everyone.
Speaker #1: Thank you ma'am. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Alpex Solar Limited, that concludes today's session. Thank you for your participation. You may now click on the exit meeting to disconnect.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thank you everyone. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Bye.
Speaker #4: Thank you so much.
