Q3 2025 GO Residential Real Estate Investment Trust Earnings Call
Speaker #1: GO Residential Earnings, Q2 2025, conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise, and after the speaker's remarks there will be a question-and-answer session.
Speaker #1: If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question at any time, please press star 1 again.
Speaker #1: I would now like to turn the call over to Maxwell Kaufman. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Good morning, everyone. I'm Maxwell Kaufman, the Chief Operating Officer of Corporate Secretary and General Counsel of GO Residential Real Estate Investment Trust. Welcome to GO Residential's earnings call, where we will discuss the financial results for the Q3 ending September 30, 2025.
Speaker #2: I'm joined on the call today by our CEO, Josh Gottlieb, CFO, Peter Sweeney, and our President, Matthew Keller, who are all available to answer questions after our prepared remarks.
Speaker #2: Before we begin, I want to remind listeners that certain statements made on this call relating to the REIT's future outlook and anticipated events or results constitute forward-looking information as defined under Canadian Securities Laws.
Speaker #2: Although we believe such statements to be based on reasonable assumptions, we cannot give assurance that the anticipated results will be achieved. In addition, we will reference certain non-IFRS financial measures that we believe are useful, supplemental information about our financial performance.
Speaker #2: For more information, please refer to the cautionary statements on forward-looking information in the description of our non-IFRS financial measures and the risk factors in our MD&A dated November 12, 2025.
Speaker #2: Over to you, Josh.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Max. Hi everyone, good morning. Today marks a significant milestone in the GO Residential story, just over 3 months ago we closed the largest REIT IPO in the history of the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Speaker #3: Our pitch at the time was simple: we have best-in-class assets, best-in-class market, and a best-in-class management team. From a financial point of view, the key theme has always been growth.
Speaker #3: In the months since, the team here at GO Residential did exactly what we have done time and time again: we've exceeded expectations. As compared to the pro forma forecast, we've beat unadjusted revenue, we've beat on average monthly rent, we've beat on committed occupancy, we've beat on adjusted NOI, we've beat on adjusted NOI margin, and we've beat on adjusted AFFO.
Speaker #3: A core tenet of our culture here is execution, these results clearly underscore that discipline. On the revenue side, our mark-to-market initiative remained the focus.
Speaker #3: Back in July, we identified an approximate 10% gap between average employee's monthly rent per suite and average market rent per suite. We committed to closing that gap in roughly 12 months at little to no cost.
Speaker #3: Today I'm pleased to announce that we are well on track. At quarter end, average employee's monthly rent per suite was just over $6,800. This is a new high watermark for our public peers.
Speaker #3: Despite pushing rents, committed occupancy remained exceptionally strong, ending the quarter at 99.5%. These factors, together with other ancillary rental revenue, drove adjusted revenue of $28.29 million for the quarter.
Speaker #3: Exceeding our pro forma expectations. On the expense side, lower turnover costs contributed to a 2.8% reduction in property expenses versus the forecast. This was largely due to a 70% renewal rate on leases expiring during the period.
Speaker #3: Adjusted NOI margin grew to 71.1%, pushing adjusted NOI for the Q3 to 20.1 million. In early October, we saw an opportunity to complete an accretive refinance of the mortgage at 1 East River Place.
Speaker #3: That transaction demonstrated our proactive approach to capital management and commitment to enhancing unit holder value. By locking in attractive long-term financing, taking 65 million in incremental proceeds, and using those proceeds to pay down our credit facility, we were able to strengthen our balance sheet, reduce risk, and position GO for continued growth and financial flexibility.
Speaker #3: Turning to the broader market, the fundamentals for luxury products in Manhattan remained strong during the Q3. We saw a median monthly rental prices for comparable products up 8 to 10% year over year, and we saw vacancy sit at near-historic lows.
Speaker #3: Looking ahead, Manhattan is expected to exceed the national average with respect to both population and economic growth, which we see as the two key drivers behind demand.
Speaker #3: On the supply side, we expect the city to continue to trail other gateway and non-gateway cities when it comes to new rental products. In short, all signs point to a robust environment for our properties in the years ahead.
Speaker #2: On November 4, Zoran Mamdani was elected to be the next mayor of New York City. Specifics around the policies that the new administration intends to pursue remain unclear.
Speaker #2: Similarly, we do not yet know who will be appointed to run a number of important city agencies, including those charged with regulating housing. That being said, we'd like to provide some clarity as it relates to the new administration's pledge to freeze rents on stabilized units.
Speaker #2: First, a rent freeze would have zero impact on 4 out of our 5 properties. Other than those at Copper, all of our suites are completely free market.
Speaker #2: Rents in those units are and will continue to be set at our sole discretion. Second, increases on stabilized units are set by the rent guidelines board.
Speaker #2: The RGB is legally required to consider a number of factors, including operating costs, when making its termination on rents. The decision to freeze them cannot be made in a vacuum.
Speaker #2: Third, the earliest date on which a freeze could come into place is October 1, 2026. Recent reports indicate that Mayor Adams, who has been highly critical of a freeze, intends to appoint several members to the RGB prior to leaving office.
Speaker #2: That would delay the incoming administration's ability to appoint a majority for another year. Fourth, assuming a freeze comes into place on October 1, 2027, the average gap between employee's rents at quarter end and legal rents for the 600 stabilized suites at Copper is approximately 11%.
Speaker #2: That means years not days or months before any notable impact is realized. Taking a step back, we firmly believe that the broader concerns around New York City overstayed.
Speaker #2: The New York City Metropolitan area continues to have the largest civilian workforce in the country, and employers have made a significant investment in their return to office mandates.
Speaker #2: If the aftermath of COVID-19 has taught us anything, it is that Manhattan is incredibly resilient. The fundamentals in our core business have never been stronger and we have high conviction in the long-term outlook of this market.
Speaker #2: Before handing it over to Peter, I'd like to take a moment to speak about inorganic growth. Back in 2022, the uncertainty caused by the pandemic provided us with the opportunity to build the foundation of this company.
Speaker #2: This election is creating a similar moment in time. Assets are coming to market at attractive valuations, and sellers are starting to signal a clear willingness to transact.
Speaker #2: When it comes to acquisitions, disciplined capital allocation will continue to be the guiding principle. After all, we are fortunate enough to have significant organic growth embedded in our portfolio.
Speaker #2: That being said, we continue to monitor the market for additional opportunities where we can leverage our local expertise and deliver additional unit holder value.
Speaker #2: Over to you, Peter, to discuss our financial results.
Speaker #1: Thank you, Josh. And good morning, everyone. As Josh highlighted, our inaugural reporting period as a public REIT delivered excellent results across all major operating and financial metrics.
Speaker #1: These include: number one, top-line growth was driven by increases in average monthly rent and higher-than-anticipated lease renewals, resulting in a committed occupancy rate of 99.5% at quarter's end.
Speaker #1: Number two, expense discipline remained a core focus with property operating expenses below forecast and an adjusted NOI margin of 71.1%, exceeding our pro forma target of 70.6%.
Speaker #1: Number three, adjusted NOI was 20.1 million dollars, ahead of our pro forma forecast of 19.96 million dollars, and lastly, number four, adjusted AFFO totaled 8.35 million dollars, or 15 cents per unit, surpassing our forecast of 7.82 million dollars, or 14 cents per unit.
Speaker #1: These results reflect the continued strength of the Manhattan luxury rental market, New York City's supply-demand dynamics remain highly favorable, with nation-leading job and population growth, robust back-to-the-office trends, and limited new luxury rental inventory.
Speaker #1: Our five core investment properties anchor the REIT's portfolio and continue to attract both existing and new tenants. Independent valuations affirmed an aggregate IFRS value of in excess of 2.7 billion dollars.
Speaker #1: And as Josh has mentioned, our average monthly rent now exceeds 6,800 dollars per unit, a new high water mark. Turning to our capital structure, at the end of the quarter, debt-to-gross-book value stood at almost 48%, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.2% and a weighted average remaining term of 3.8 years.
Speaker #1: These metrics improved subsequent to the quarter's end following the refinancing of One East River Place, which extended the mortgage maturity from September of 2027 to October of 2030.
Speaker #1: Four of our five properties now have mortgages maturing no earlier than 2029, with the remaining properties One Sutton Place maturing in September of 2027.
Speaker #1: We remain focused on further optimizing our debt profile with the strategic objective of achieving an investment-grade credit rating over time. As operating cash flow continues to grow, we expect overall leverage to decrease materially.
Speaker #1: And now a brief note on accounting treatment. Our balance sheet includes opco units held by retained interest holders of 279 million dollars, and the income statement reflects 2.4 million in interest expense and a 51.9 million dollar fair value gain relating to these units.
Speaker #1: These figures represent the equity retained by our initial owners which is classified as debt under IFRS, resulting in distributions being accounted for as interest expense.
Speaker #1: For Canadian analysts, this is similar to the treatment of class B units in other Canadian REITs. Importantly, all related accounting noise is neutralized in our MDNA.
Speaker #1: As AFFO is adjusted accordingly and opco units are included in our per-unit calculations. Opco unit holders represent approximately 40% of the REIT's overall equity and have the same economic interests as trust unit holders.
Speaker #1: In summary, GO Residential REIT delivered a very strong start as a public REIT. Supported by favorable market fundamentals, disciplined execution, and a high-quality portfolio, we remain focused on driving further value for unit holders through operational excellence, prudent capital management, and strategic growth.
Speaker #1: And now with that, I will turn the call back to Josh.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Peter. Operator, we can now open up the call for questions.
Speaker #1: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star then number one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and enter the queue.
Speaker #1: If you'd like to withdraw your question at any time, simply press star one again. Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Haimanshu Gupta with Scotiabank.
Speaker #1: Your line is open.
Speaker #3: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. So first on the rent, what kind of new leasing spreads did you get in Q3? And I mean, it looks like rents were up nicely on quarter over quarter basis.
Speaker #2: Hey, Haimanshu, it's Josh. How are you? I have Matt Kellen next to me who's going to jump in. Renewal leases increased at greater than 5% on average for the quarter.
Speaker #2: And our new tenant tradeouts were above 6% for the quarter.
Speaker #3: Okay. Thank you. So much similar to there. And then where are the in-place rents versus the market rents? And when do you expect to close the gap?
Speaker #3: I think previously you've mentioned around 10% spread.
Speaker #2: Yeah, and we were just under 10% spread, and we're on track to close that in the first 12 months as we anticipated back in July.
Speaker #3: Okay, okay. So on track for that. And maybe my last question would be I mean, how do you see the market rent growth from here?
Speaker #3: In your Manhattan in your product going forward?
Speaker #2: I mean, look, we still have our gaps in market, but in general, in the higher end of the market, we're anticipating at least a 4% growth rate.
Speaker #3: Okay. And you're seeing no softness as such compared to the last six months or the last one year in the market?
Speaker #2: Yeah, there continues to be no new supply. So from that perspective, not a lot of the dynamic has changed, but there's no new softness that we can see at all in the marketplace.
Speaker #3: Okay, okay. Fair enough. I'll turn it back. Thank you guys.
Speaker #1: Your next question comes on the line of Kyle Stanley with Desjardins. Your line is open.
Speaker #4: Thanks. Morning, guys. Maybe just sticking with Haimanshu's questions on leasing spreads, I'm just wondering if you could talk about how maybe that's trended into the fourth quarter.
Speaker #4: It does seem like there's been a common theme across the North American apartment REITs this quarter that the 25 leasing season maybe started a bit earlier but ended earlier.
Speaker #4: So I'm just curious how that's playing out in the fourth quarter for you.
Speaker #2: Yeah, look, I'll turn it over to Matt in a second, but I think that it's important that we don't get bucketed in with everything else that's happening in other markets.
Speaker #2: We have a very specific market, and we're catering to very specific clients. If you look at our AMR at over 6,800, there's no other REIT out there that is kind of catering to this clientele.
Speaker #2: So I don't think it's necessarily what you see everywhere else is what you'll see here. But this quarter and going forward, we continue to see incredible demand.
Speaker #2: Pre-leasing remains strong. And like I said, we feel very, very strongly that we'll be able to close that gap that we opened with as far as a mark-to-market exercise.
Speaker #2: I don't know if you have anything to add.
Speaker #4: I think that was a fair summary. I just want to add to that one thing that we've done a lot of work around is making sure that our lease expirations hit during the prime leasing season, such that we have less exposure on these shoulders.
Speaker #4: And through the winter.
Speaker #1: Okay, fair enough. Kind of brings me to my next question. Obviously, a very impressive increase in your committed occupancy. So my question is going to be, how much of that was strategy to stabilize your portfolio for these shoulder seasons?
Speaker #1: Or how much of that is just reflective of a very strong market?
Speaker #2: I'd say it's a combination of both. I mean, the market's incredibly strong. That's how you could have committed occupancy at 99.5%. I think the management team's done a good job at the gate, just really working towards our goals here.
Speaker #2: But I'd say it's a combination of both. But again, the market's incredibly strong. Three out of the five assets sitting in the upper east side which is probably one of the most supply-constrained neighborhoods in Old Manhattan.
Speaker #2: And again, just continuing to see that demand.
Speaker #1: Okay, fair enough. Last one from me, Josh. You had an interesting comment in your prepared remarks. Just on the election, potentially bringing similar buying opportunities to what you saw post-pandemic.
Speaker #1: Love if you could just elaborate on that a little bit. Is it primarily maybe recently developed rent stabilized product you'd expect to see? Or just further insight there would be helpful.
Speaker #2: Yeah, look, I think that with the overhang of the election and certainly right after, our phones are ringing. People who have been in the market for some time who maybe have other exposure, whether it's office, rent stabilization, etc., they're really trying to figure out now how to bring in some liquidity.
Speaker #2: I think that you'll see a little bit of everything hit the market, right? Free market assets because people feel those would be those won't be affected, so they'll be more interested there.
Speaker #2: I think you'll see some new construction rent stable with an aspect of rent stabilization because of the tax abatements that are in place. But I think you're going to see a little bit of everything.
Speaker #2: In the coming months.
Speaker #1: Okay. No, fair enough. Thank you for that. I'll turn it back.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Kyle.
Speaker #1: Your next question comes from Dean Wilkinson with CIBC. Your line is open.
Speaker #5: Thanks. Morning, guys. Congratulations on getting the first one done. Josh, maybe just some general observations around the market and transaction activity or pending transaction activity.
Speaker #5: Guys are calling you. Phones are ringing. I can't imagine people are talking transaction values in the mid-six cap rate, which is what your stock is implying here.
Speaker #5: Can you just give us some color on what a realistic view on valuation for transactions could look like?
Speaker #2: Look, yes, nobody's calling us today and saying, "Hey, take this class A asset off our hands at a six and a half cap." That's for sure, Dean.
Speaker #2: Having said that, I think that folks are starting to either be open to creative structures but in general, I think price discovery is it's a little bit too early to sit there and start pegging a value.
Speaker #2: I think we're going to know a lot more in the next 90 days as to where people are exactly willing to transact. And look, we're also hopeful that sitting here today showing that our market's stronger I think than anyone else is, our rents certainly are.
Speaker #2: And that we can prove out the growth, which I think sets us apart from our peers. Hopefully, that'll be a big help with our cost to capital.
Speaker #2: Going forward.
Speaker #5: For sure. Maybe a similar kind of question. Have there been any individual unit transactions at 685 First Avenue that would suggest that prices have fallen off a cliff because the mayor has changed?
Speaker #2: No, luxury sales interestingly enough have been incredibly strong leading up to the election and post-election. There does not seem to be any slowdown in the high-end market on the sales side, similarly to the rental side, because of what's happened in the election.
Speaker #5: That would make sense to me. And then just the final one for me. Are you aware of the slate and pie development 33rd and 5th?
Speaker #5: And do you have any sort of views on that or is there nothing really out there regarding that potential development?
Speaker #2: Slate and pie? I am not aware of that development.
Speaker #5: Yeah. There's a vacant property across from I had it on the top of my head. Empire State, I believe. Yeah, it's right across from the Empire State Building at 5th and 335, 339 5th Avenue.
Speaker #5: So there's looking at doing a development there. I'm just wondering if construction costs on that as a proxy for replacement would be something that we could get to, but it sounds like it's probably a little too early.
Speaker #2: Yeah, I don't know much about it. I just looked it up as you're speaking about it. It's a 90-unit development. I don't know much about this.
Speaker #5: Yeah, I'd imagine. Probably two people do. That's all I got. I'll turn it back. Thanks.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Dean.
Speaker #1: Your next question comes from Jana Gollin with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Good morning. One for Peter. Can you talk to any kind of longer-term balance sheet goals and any timeline on the path to deleveraging?
Speaker #1: Jana, yeah, thanks for the question. I think in simple terms, we haven't established at least for now any definitive timelines into the future on the deleveraging initiative other than knowing that over the next two to three years, as I think we've mentioned, I know we've mentioned, in fact, to many that we do plan to embark upon what we describe as our light capital spend project at 1 East River.
Speaker #1: And that will we expect result in an enormous lift in rents within that entire building. And with that additional cash flow, if you will, that cash flow is intended both to lift the value of the building, obviously, given the higher rental levels, and as well as it's overall operating cash flow and NOI, those proceeds unless we've got other uses for them are expected to be used to delever as well.
Speaker #1: So that's a process that we're expecting to start with early or at least planning on it early next year. It'll take, we expect, about 24 months to get through the entire building.
Speaker #1: So that by 24 months presumably the end of 2027 and maybe shortly thereafter, we expect that building's rents to be substantially higher. And so when you think about the future and you think about debt and delevering, I think if you're trying to model something into your pro forma, you should start at least at the end of 2026 and then graduate up from there as units are leased under the new threshold with the light capex program in place.
Speaker #1: With respect to any definitive timeline on an investment-grade credit rating, I think it's fair to say that we're looking closely at how we expect things to evolve over the next few quarters for us.
Speaker #1: And clearly, we'll continue to work with the debt rating agencies to see if we can establish a rating in that regard hopefully sooner rather than later.
Speaker #1: But as far as establishing or being able to provide any more definition around time, unfortunately, at this point, we're not able to do so.
Speaker #3: Thank you. And then just curious on the HAP contract, can you provide any kind of update on when they'll become effective? And then for the HAP backstop providers, I guess, is there any cost or are they receiving interest or anything for making this payment until the actual contract is executed?
Speaker #1: I got to turn that it's a good question. I'm going to turn it back to Josh, who's probably best able to answer at least the first part of that and perhaps the second, Josh.
Speaker #2: Yeah, the HAP contract's been executed and we are having the tenants signed up and implementing the program. What was the second part of your question?
Speaker #3: Oh, so there's no longer backstop providers?
Speaker #1: There's no interest. There's no interest.
Speaker #2: One second, Peter. Jana, what's your second part of your question?
Speaker #3: Oh, apologies. Yeah, I didn't realize that it was I thought you were still receiving the backstop funds, not the effective contract funds.
Speaker #2: Yes, for now, we are still receiving the backstop funds. So once you sign the contract, there's still an implementation process, but the contract is signed.
Speaker #1: So for the first two years, Jana, the backstop providers are backstopping the full $6 million of NOI regardless of any funds received under the HAP contract itself?
Speaker #1: So just as we continue to implement that program and the amount of funds received under the contract increases, the difference between $6 million and whatever the increases are will come from the folks who are backstopping that contract.
Speaker #3: Perfect. Thank you for clarifying.
Speaker #2: Of course.
Speaker #1: Your next question comes from a line of Jimmy Sean with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Speaker #4: Thank you. Just to follow up on that HAP contract too, just that was included in the IPO revenue forecast line, right? That was not an add-back below the line.
Speaker #4: Is that right?
Speaker #1: Yeah, Jimmy, it's Peter. I'll take that one. In the forecast document, we which began you'll recall at least for the period being covered effective July the 1st, the forecast assumes that for that one month of July of 2025, that the backstop was in place and that's why you see a $500,000 add-back in the AFFO calculation.
Speaker #1: Otherwise, for the remaining 11 months of the forecast period, it was assumed that the HAP contract would be in place. And so that's at least from a timing perspective that's the reason or one of the principal reasons that we have a million dollars this quarter for the two months August and September being added back to AFFO because we haven't at least not yet been able to complete the implementation of the HAP agreement or HAP contract and so in that interim period, the backstop provisions kick in.
Speaker #4: Okay. Got it. With respect to the right guideline board, what's your sense of the probability of mere items appointing these new members before he leaves office?
Speaker #2: We believe that Mayor Adams will be appointing new members before he takes office.
Speaker #4: Okay. So really then it's a 2027 at the earliest is really what we're saying here, right?
Speaker #2: It is at the earliest a 2027. There's an argument to be made that it could even be pushed out further, but yes, yeah, 2027 would be the earliest, October 1st.
Speaker #4: Okay. And then this last question, just in terms of the variance to the forecast, if I were to take the IPO Q3 number and prorate it for 62 days, I get something like 8.9 million.
Speaker #4: Versus the 7.9, I just wanted to square that difference.
Speaker #1: Yeah, Jimmy, the principal reason is when we went back to the forecast, there's obviously anomalies in the forecast for July versus the other two months of the quarter.
Speaker #1: So what we did was we literally walked through each one of the accounts that billed the forecast to determine whether it was appropriate to prorate them simply or perhaps not.
Speaker #1: And the best example I can give you would be audit fees. So for example, you would imagine in the forecast, our estimated audit fees for the year were essentially divided by 12, if you will.
Speaker #1: And each month would have taken 1/12 of that audit fee number. That would have been the way the forecast was calculated. Because we were now left with only two months in this quarter and there were no audit fees, obviously, for July, because we only commenced the read on July 31st, from a fee perspective, those audit fees now have a shorter duration or a shorter amortizing period.
Speaker #1: So the actual amount of the audit fees in my example in actual purposes for the two months versus the forecast period would obviously be higher.
Speaker #1: And so we went through that kind of painstaking detail for each account in the forecast to determine an appropriate basis of allocation. So that's why it's just not simply a matter of dividing by three and multiplying by two.
Speaker #4: Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Again, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and enter the queue.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Your next question comes from a line of Matt Cornack with National Bank Financial. Your line is open.
Speaker #4: Hey, good morning, guys. Just with respect to the in-place occupancy rate versus committed occupancy, I think that spreads a little wider than what you had at the time of the prospectus.
Speaker #4: But can you give us a sense as to kind of how the 96.8 will trend towards the 99.5? And is that just the standard kind of is that an average A for the quarter or is that kind of an ending occupancy figure as well?
Speaker #2: Hey, I'm going to put Matt back on the line. Here you go, Matt. Hi. Our expectation is is that as we enter into the winter months, our occupancy rate is going to trend up into that committed that is going to hit that committed occupancy number.
Speaker #2: What you're looking at is is that as I mentioned earlier, we try to push our leases into a particular leasing season, which is the strongest leasing season here in New York City.
Speaker #2: So part of what you're seeing is the fact that we just have more leases turning over in the summer than we do at any other time in the year.
Speaker #4: Okay. That's fair. And then I mean, August and September, renewal rate of 70%. To your point, it's a more active leasing period. But is that kind of where you'd expect to be on an annual basis or how should we think of turnover versus renewals in the portfolio?
Speaker #2: I think that right now what we're seeing across New York City as a whole particularly on the Upper East Side is that renewal rates are at all-time highs compared to what we've seen in the past.
Speaker #2: And my expectation is is that renewal rates will stay somewhere between 70 and 75 percent throughout the winter as a majority of people choose not to move during these months.
Speaker #1: And thank you. With no further questions in queue, I would like to turn the conference back over to Josh for closing remarks.
Speaker #2: Okay. Just thank you, everybody, for the time. We appreciate it. Very happy with this first quarter's results. Our first reporting quarter. And we look forward to catching up with everyone down the road.
