Q3 2026 SEB SA Pre-Close Earnings Call

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Speaker #8: Hello, everyone. We're just waiting to get everyone in on the call before starting it. Okay, I believe we have some kind of critical mass.

Pawel Wyszynski: Hello, everyone. We are just waiting to get everyone in on the call before starting it. Okay, I believe we have some kind of critical mass. If anyone is not in, there will be a transcript later published on our website. Welcome to SEB's Q3 2026 pre-close call. My name is Pawel Wyszynski, and I head up the investor relations team here at SEB. This call is being recorded. The script and recording for this call will be published on SEB's website after the call. We will only answer questions related to already disclosed information as well as publicly available data. We will cover rates, key P&L lines, REA, and capital, followed by Q&A. Please raise your hand to ask a question. Average three-month STIBOR is down 1 basis point quarter to date versus end of Q2.

Pawel Wyszynski: Hello, everyone. We are just waiting to get everyone in on the call before starting it. Okay, I believe we have some kind of critical mass. If anyone is not in, there will be a transcript later published on our website. Welcome to SEB's Q3 2026 pre-close call. My name is Pawel Wyszynski, and I head up the investor relations team here at SEB. This call is being recorded. The script and recording for this call will be published on SEB's website after the call. We will only answer questions related to already disclosed information as well as publicly available data. We will cover rates, key P&L lines, REA, and capital, followed by Q&A. Please raise your hand to ask a question. Average three-month STIBOR is down 1 basis point quarter to date versus end of Q2.

Speaker #8: If anyone is not in, there will be a transcript published later on our website. Okay, welcome to SEB's Q3 2026 pre-close call. My name is Pavel Vyshynsky, and I head up the Investor Relations team here at SEB.

Speaker #8: This call is being recorded. The script and the recording for this call will be published on SEB's website after the call. We will only answer questions related to all of the disclosed information, as well as publicly available data.

Speaker #8: We will cover rates, key P&L lines, REIA, and capital, followed by Q&A. Please raise your hand to ask a question. Average three-month stibor is down one basis point, quarter to date, versus end of Q2.

Speaker #8: SEB has changed some Swedish lending and deposit rates this quarter, and most rates are available on seb.se. Average six-month Euribor—we have earlier talked about three-month Euribor, but the six-month is more relevant.

Pawel Wyszynski: SEB has changed some Swedish lending and deposit rates this quarter, and most rates are available on seb.se. Average six-month Euribor, we have earlier talked about three months Euribor, but the six months is more relevant, is up 23 basis points quarter to date compared to Q2. Increased Euribor rates affect mainly our Baltics operations and mostly the deposit side. You can find the relevant deposit rates and changes on the domestic SEB websites for each of the three Baltic countries. Before turning to the P&L, I just have some FX remarks. The P&L is affected by average FX during the quarter. All else equal, a stronger average SEK leads to lower income and lower costs. The opposite applies for a weaker average SEK. Compared to the second quarter of 2026 on average, the SEK has weakened somewhat versus the euro.

Pawel Wyszynski: SEB has changed some Swedish lending and deposit rates this quarter, and most rates are available on seb.se. Average six-month Euribor, we have earlier talked about three months Euribor, but the six months is more relevant, is up 23 basis points quarter to date compared to Q2. Increased Euribor rates affect mainly our Baltics operations and mostly the deposit side. You can find the relevant deposit rates and changes on the domestic SEB websites for each of the three Baltic countries. Before turning to the P&L, I just have some FX remarks. The P&L is affected by average FX during the quarter. All else equal, a stronger average SEK leads to lower income and lower costs. The opposite applies for a weaker average SEK. Compared to the second quarter of 2026 on average, the SEK has weakened somewhat versus the euro.

Speaker #8: Is up 23 basis points, quarter to date, compared to Q2. Increased Euribor rates affect mainly our Baltic operations and mostly the deposit side. You can find the relevant deposit rates and changes on the domestic SEB websites for each of the three Baltic countries.

Speaker #8: Before turning to the P&L, I just have some FX remarks. The P&L is affected by average FX during the quarter. All else equal, a stronger average SEIC leads to lower income and lower costs.

Speaker #8: The opposite applies for a weaker average SEIC. Compared to the second quarter of 2026, on average, the SEIC has weakened somewhat versus the euro.

Speaker #8: This would imply a tailwind on income and a headwind on costs. The balance sheet is affected by ultimo FX rates, where a stronger SEIC reduces the level of total assets and therefore also the risk exposure amount.

Pawel Wyszynski: This would imply a tailwind on income and a headwind on costs. The balance sheet is affected by ultimo FX rates where a stronger SEK reduces the level of total assets and therefore also the risk exposure amount. As our equity is SEK-denominated and is not hedged, a stronger SEK affects the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio positively. The opposite applies for a weaker SEK. Given ultimo SEK is weaker versus euro, this indicates somewhat higher lending and REA volumes due to FX effects. In the Q2 2026 investor presentation you can find on sebgroup.com, the currency split of risk exposure amount was 42% in SEK, 39% in euro and 8% in USD. A + or -5% change in SEK versus other currencies affects the CET1 capital ratio of around 40 basis points.

Pawel Wyszynski: This would imply a tailwind on income and a headwind on costs. The balance sheet is affected by ultimo FX rates where a stronger SEK reduces the level of total assets and therefore also the risk exposure amount. As our equity is SEK-denominated and is not hedged, a stronger SEK affects the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio positively. The opposite applies for a weaker SEK. Given ultimo SEK is weaker versus euro, this indicates somewhat higher lending and REA volumes due to FX effects. In the Q2 2026 investor presentation you can find on sebgroup.com, the currency split of risk exposure amount was 42% in SEK, 39% in euro and 8% in USD. A + or -5% change in SEK versus other currencies affects the CET1 capital ratio of around 40 basis points.

Speaker #8: As our equity is SEIC-denominated and is not hedged, a stronger SEIC affects the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio positively. The opposite applies for a weaker SEIC.

Speaker #8: Given ultimo SEIC is weaker versus euro, this indicates somewhat higher lending and REIA volumes due to FX effects. In the Q2 2026 investor presentation, which you can find on SEBgroup.com, the currency split of risk exposure amount was 42% in SEIC, 39% in euro, and 8% in US dollars.

Speaker #8: A plus 5 percent, plus minus 5 percent change in SEIC versus other currencies affects the CT1 capital ratio by around 40 basis points. Lastly, the third quarter is affected by seasonality.

Pawel Wyszynski: Lastly, the third quarter is affected by seasonality given summer and vacation months where activity is generally lower. I will now turn to the profit and loss lines. Net interest income. On volumes, there is lending and deposit growth in Sweden and in the Baltics on a system level. Let's see how much of that we capture. Regarding sensitivity to rate changes, we would point out the simplistic approach to look at our equity, roughly SEK 225 billion. The private and corporate transaction accounts and savings accounts within BRB, roughly SEK 355 billion. Lastly, in the Baltics is mainly the private transaction accounts and then some of our corporate transaction accounts. In totality, roughly SEK 135 billion. These volumes are all as of Q2 2026. In connection to the Q2 call, we stated that our markets NII had an elevated level of some SEK 100 million.

Pawel Wyszynski: Lastly, the third quarter is affected by seasonality given summer and vacation months where activity is generally lower. I will now turn to the profit and loss lines. Net interest income. On volumes, there is lending and deposit growth in Sweden and in the Baltics on a system level. Let's see how much of that we capture. Regarding sensitivity to rate changes, we would point out the simplistic approach to look at our equity, roughly SEK 225 billion. The private and corporate transaction accounts and savings accounts within BRB, roughly SEK 355 billion. Lastly, in the Baltics is mainly the private transaction accounts and then some of our corporate transaction accounts. In totality, roughly SEK 135 billion. These volumes are all as of Q2 2026. In connection to the Q2 call, we stated that our markets NII had an elevated level of some SEK 100 million.

Speaker #8: Given summer and vacation months, when activity is generally lower, I will now turn to the profit and loss lines. Net interest income: on volumes, there is lending and deposit growth in Sweden and in the Baltic on a system level.

Speaker #8: Let's see how much of that we capture. Regarding sensitivity to rate changes, we would point out the simplistic approach to look at our equity—roughly SEIC 200, and $25 billion.

Speaker #8: The private and corporate transaction accounts and savings accounts within BRB total roughly SEK 355 billion. And lastly, in the Baltics, it's mainly the private transaction accounts and then some of our corporate transaction accounts — in total, roughly SEK 135 billion.

Speaker #8: These volumes are all as of Q2 2026. In connection to the Q2 call, we stated that our markets NII had an elevated level of some SEIC 100 million.

Speaker #8: This level is back to more normalized levels in Q3. During the quarter, we have also done a lot of funding, and this will be a drag on NII quarter on quarter.

Pawel Wyszynski: This level is back to more normalized levels in Q3. During the quarter, we have also done a lot of funding and this will be a drag on NII QoQ. Looking at the day count, there is one more day in the third quarter, which adds some SEK 100 million compared to Q2. Moving on to net fee and commission income. A large part of net fee and commission income is derived from assets under management and assets under custody.

Pawel Wyszynski: This level is back to more normalized levels in Q3. During the quarter, we have also done a lot of funding and this will be a drag on NII QoQ. Looking at the day count, there is one more day in the third quarter, which adds some SEK 100 million compared to Q2. Moving on to net fee and commission income. A large part of net fee and commission income is derived from assets under management and assets under custody.

Speaker #8: Looking at the day count, there is one more day in the third quarter, which adds some SEIC 100 million compared to Q2. Moving on to net fee and commission income.

Speaker #8: A large part of net fee and commission income is derived from assets under management and assets under custody and is hence correlated to the general equity market development.

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Pawel Wyszynski: is hence correlated to the general equity market development. On average, equity markets are up some 3% to 5% compared to Q2. This should thus be a tailwind for this line. Another large part of the net fee and commission income is the payment and card fees. In Q2, we stated that Q2 had a seasonally strong quarter. Q3 is normally the seasonally weakest quarter as corporate travel is limited during the summer months. Regarding activity, our CFO stated in connection to the Q2 report call, the activity level in Q2 also reflects some of the pipeline that was held back during the first quarter following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. With this in mind, we should expect the seasonal third quarter effect to be somewhat more pronounced than usual this year. Moving on to net financial income.

Pawel Wyszynski: Is hence correlated to the general equity market development. On average, equity markets are up some 3% to 5% compared to Q2. This should thus be a tailwind for this line. Another large part of the net fee and commission income is the payment and card fees. In Q2, we stated that Q2 had a seasonally strong quarter. Q3 is normally the seasonally weakest quarter as corporate travel is limited during the summer months. Regarding activity, our CFO stated in connection to the Q2 report call, the activity level in Q2 also reflects some of the pipeline that was held back during the first quarter following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. With this in mind, we should expect the seasonal third quarter effect to be somewhat more pronounced than usual this year. Moving on to net financial income.

Speaker #8: On average, equity markets are up some 3 to 5% compared to Q2. This should thus be a tailwind for this line. Another large part of the net fee and commission income is the payment and card fees.

Speaker #8: In Q2, we stated that Q2 had a seasonally strong quarter, Q3 is normally the seasonally weakest quarter as corporate travel is limited during the summer months.

Speaker #8: Regarding activity, our CFO stated in connection to the Q2 report call, the activity level in Q2 also reflects some of the pipeline that was held back during the first quarter, following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.

Speaker #8: With this in mind, we should expect the seasonal third quarter effect to be somewhat more pronounced than usual this year. Moving on to net financial income.

Speaker #8: As shown in connection with our quarterly presentation, looking at the past 12 quarters, the average quarterly level of net financial income has been around SEK 2 billion per quarter.

Pawel Wyszynski: As shown in connection with our quarterly presentation, looking at the past 12 quarters, the average quarterly level of net financial income has been around SEK 2 billion per quarter, with a standard deviation of ±400 million from the average. Based on market developments in the quarter, in combination with a seasonal slowdown and volatile markets, an outcome around the lower end of the range could be a reasonable proxy for Q3. Net other income. We have earlier stated that this line item should normally be between SEK 0 and 100 million. For this quarter, due to some one-offs, an outcome closer to the lower end of the range could be expected. Total expenses. As our CFO stated during the Q2 call, looking at the run rate of expenses for the first months of the year, we are currently tracking below that full-year target.

Pawel Wyszynski: As shown in connection with our quarterly presentation, looking at the past 12 quarters, the average quarterly level of net financial income has been around SEK 2 billion per quarter, with a standard deviation of ±400 million from the average. Based on market developments in the quarter, in combination with a seasonal slowdown and volatile markets, an outcome around the lower end of the range could be a reasonable proxy for Q3. Net other income. We have earlier stated that this line item should normally be between SEK 0 and 100 million. For this quarter, due to some one-offs, an outcome closer to the lower end of the range could be expected. Total expenses. As our CFO stated during the Q2 call, looking at the run rate of expenses for the first months of the year, we are currently tracking below that full-year target.

Speaker #8: With the standard deviation of plus or minus $400 million from the average, and based on market developments in the quarter—along with a seasonal slowdown and volatile markets—an outcome around the lower end of the range could be a reasonable proxy for Q3.

Speaker #8: Net other income. We have earlier stated that this line item should normally be between SEIC 0 and 100 million. For this quarter, due to some one-offs, an outcome closer to the lower end of the range could be expected.

Speaker #8: Total expenses. As our CFO stated during the Q2 call, looking at the run rate of expenses for the first months of the year, we are currently tracking below that full-year target.

Speaker #8: Now, as you know, typically we incur a larger proportion of our full year costs in the second half of the year, when also still in the process of ramping up some of our investments in our prioritized areas.

Pawel Wyszynski: As you know, typically we incur a larger proportion of our full-year costs in the second half of the year and also still in the process of ramping up some of our investments in our prioritized areas. That said, we are in a good position to meet the target or even come in somewhat below it. Turning now to the development of the SEB share price in Q3, it has continued to increase. In Q2, the negative effect stemming from the higher share price during the quarter had a negative effect of roughly SEK 100 million, as stated by our CFO at the conference call in Q2. In Q3, the negative effect should increase compared to Q2 as a result of a furthering strengthening of the share price, resulting in higher costs for outstanding long-term incentive schemes as they are linked to the share price development.

Pawel Wyszynski: As you know, typically we incur a larger proportion of our full-year costs in the second half of the year and also still in the process of ramping up some of our investments in our prioritized areas. That said, we are in a good position to meet the target or even come in somewhat below it. Turning now to the development of the SEB share price in Q3, it has continued to increase. In Q2, the negative effect stemming from the higher share price during the quarter had a negative effect of roughly SEK 100 million, as stated by our CFO at the conference call in Q2. In Q3, the negative effect should increase compared to Q2 as a result of a furthering strengthening of the share price, resulting in higher costs for outstanding long-term incentive schemes as they are linked to the share price development.

Speaker #8: That said, we are in a good position to meet the target or even come in somewhat below it. Turning now to the development of the SEB share price in Q3, it has continued to increase.

Speaker #8: In Q2, the negative effect stemming from the higher share price during the quarter had a negative effect of roughly SEIC 100 million, as stated by our CFO at the conference call in Q2.

Speaker #8: In Q3, the negative effect should increase compared to Q2. As a result of a furthering strengthening of the share price, resulting in higher costs for outstanding long-term incentive schemes, as they are linked to the share price development.

Speaker #8: Net expected credit losses. Just to reiterate what we said in Q2: the underlying asset quality remains robust. Imposed levies. At the Q2 results call, we said that for 2026, we expect levies of around SEK 3.5 billion.

Pawel Wyszynski: Net expected credit losses. Just reiterating what we said in Q2, that the underlying asset quality remains robust. Imposed levies. At the Q2 results call, we said that for 2026, we expect levies of around SEK 3.5 billion. Moving on to tax. We have previously said that going forward, a tax rate of 21% is a good proxy for forecasting. Capital and risk exposure amount. SEB's current share buyback program amounting to SEK 1.25 billion ends no later than 20 October, as stated in a press release on 15 July. Risk exposure amount is affected by, among other things, FX movements, which I addressed at the beginning of this call. As a reminder, lending volumes on a system level are growing. This concludes our prepared remarks for this pre-close call. Please monitor how the FX rates close at the end of the quarter for the most up-to-date data.

Pawel Wyszynski: Net expected credit losses. Just reiterating what we said in Q2, that the underlying asset quality remains robust. Imposed levies. At the Q2 results call, we said that for 2026, we expect levies of around SEK 3.5 billion. Moving on to tax. We have previously said that going forward, a tax rate of 21% is a good proxy for forecasting. Capital and risk exposure amount. SEB's current share buyback program amounting to SEK 1.25 billion ends no later than 20 October, as stated in a press release on 15 July. Risk exposure amount is affected by, among other things, FX movements, which I addressed at the beginning of this call. As a reminder, lending volumes on a system level are growing. This concludes our prepared remarks for this pre-close call. Please monitor how the FX rates close at the end of the quarter for the most up-to-date data.

Speaker #8: Moving on to tax, we have previously said that going forward, a tax rate of 21% is a good proxy for forecasting. Capital and risk exposure amount.

Speaker #8: SEB's current share buyback program amounting to SEIC 1.25 billion ends no later than October 20, as stated in a press release on July 15.

Speaker #8: Risk exposure amount is affected by, among other things, FX movements, which I addressed at the beginning of this call. As a reminder, lending volumes on a system level are growing.

Speaker #8: This concludes our prepared remarks for this pre-close call. Please monitor how the FX rates close at the end of the quarter for the most up-to-date data.

Speaker #8: Before we move on to the Q&A session, I would like to highlight that we enter our silent period on October 1, and that our Q3 2026 interim report will be published on October 22 at 6:30 a.m.

Pawel Wyszynski: Before we move on to the Q&A session, I would like to highlight that we enter our silent period on 1 October and that our Q3 2026 interim report will be published on 22 October at 6:30 AM Swedish time. With this, we wish you all a good day. With that, I see a hand up from Andreas firstly, and then Sophie.

Pawel Wyszynski: Before we move on to the Q&A session, I would like to highlight that we enter our silent period on 1 October and that our Q3 2026 interim report will be published on 22 October at 6:30 A.M. Swedish time. With this, we wish you all a good day. With that, I see a hand up from Andreas firstly, and then Sophie.

Speaker #8: Swedish time. With this, we wish you all a good day. With that, I see a hand up from Andreas, firstly, and then Sophie.

Speaker #5: Hi Pavel. First question, you said that six months you ride brings up 23 bips in the quarter, but does that really matter? Isn't what's interesting is how much Q3 is up compared to Q1, given that the loans that are repricing now in Q3 should come from the Q1 level, given that they're rolling one sixth every month, right?

Andreas Lundberg: Hi, Pavel. First question, you said that 6 months Euribor is up 23 bps in the quarter, but does that really matter? Isn't what's interesting is how much Q3 is up compared to Q1, given that the loans that are repricing now in Q3 should have come from the Q1 level, given that they are rolling one sixth every month, right?

Andreas Lundberg: Hi, Pawel. First question, you said that 6 months Euribor is up 23 bps in the quarter, but does that really matter? Isn't what's interesting is how much Q3 is up compared to Q1, given that the loans that are repricing now in Q3 should have come from the Q1 level, given that they are rolling one sixth every month, right?

Speaker #6: You are right that when you rival rates start to increase, obviously interest income starts to move ahead of any interest rate changes. But I'm just more fixed on looking previously we were looking at three months you rival, and that was, I would say, maybe more incorrect, given that maturities typically range between three months you rival and one year you rival.

Pawel Wyszynski: You are right that when Euribor rates start to increase, obviously interest income starts to move ahead of any interest rate changes. I'm just more fixed on looking. Previously we were looking at 3 months Euribor, and that was, I would say maybe more incorrect given that maturities typically range between 3 months Euribor and 1 year Euribor, with the average being roughly 6 months.

Pawel Wyszynski: You are right that when Euribor rates start to increase, obviously interest income starts to move ahead of any interest rate changes. I'm just more fixed on looking. Previously we were looking at 3 months Euribor, and that was, I would say maybe more incorrect given that maturities typically range between 3 months Euribor and 1 year Euribor, with the average being roughly 6 months. I'm not sure if I would use. Maybe I would use it, but then I guess I wouldn't be using the full volume, which I stated earlier.

Speaker #6: And with the average being roughly six months. But I'm not sure if I would, you know, use maybe I would use it, but then I guess I wouldn't be using the full volume, which I stated earlier.

Pawel Wyszynski: I'm not sure if I would use. Maybe I would use it, but then I guess I wouldn't be using the full volume, which I stated earlier.

Speaker #6: So, you know, if you look at what happened to Q1, I would use a lower volume.

Andreas Lundberg: Yeah, of course.

Andreas Lundberg: Yeah, of course.

Pawel Wyszynski: If you look what happened to Q1, I would use a lower volume.

Pawel Wyszynski: If you look what happened to Q1, I would use a lower volume.

Speaker #5: Yeah, yeah. No, that's, of course, but it's probably 40–50 bps then. But then on funding, you said you did—yeah, did you say you did a lot of funding in the quarter?

Andreas Lundberg: Yeah. No, that's of course, but it's probably 40, 50 bps down. But then on funding-

Andreas Lundberg: Yeah. No, that's of course, but it's probably 40, 50 bps down. But then on funding.

Pawel Wyszynski: On a smaller volume, yes.

Pawel Wyszynski: On a smaller volume, yes.

Andreas Lundberg: You said you did a lot of funding in the quarter. Could you tell us a little bit what type, what levels, and when in the quarter?

Andreas Lundberg: You said you did a lot of funding in the quarter. Could you tell us a little bit what type, what levels, and when in the quarter?

Speaker #5: Could you tell us a little bit about what type, what levels, and when in the quarter?

Speaker #6: We did it throughout the quarter. I think I will do it just a bit easier. I think the negative effect in Q1 and NII from all the funding done is roughly maybe SEK 50 million.

Pawel Wyszynski: We did it throughout the quarter. I think I will do it just a bit easier. I think the negative effect QoQ and NII from all the funding done is roughly maybe SEK 50 million.

Pawel Wyszynski: We did it throughout the quarter. I think I will do it just a bit easier. I think the negative effect QoQ and NII from all the funding done is roughly maybe SEK 50 million.

Speaker #5: Okay. And that's that's good enough. Thanks. That's it for me.

Andreas Lundberg: Okay, that's good enough. Thanks. That's it from me.

Andreas Lundberg: Okay, that's good enough. Thanks. That's it from me.

Speaker #6: Thanks. Sophie.

Pawel Wyszynski: Thanks. Sophie?

Pawel Wyszynski: Thanks. Sophie?

Speaker #4: Yeah, thanks a lot for taking my question. So just on the funding side, I understand you have the benefits in the Baltics from higher market EURIBOR rates, but how should we think about your wholesale funding that is in euros and US dollars?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Yeah. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Just on the funding side, I understand you have the benefits in the Baltics from higher market Euribor rates, but how should we think about your wholesale funding that is in euros and US dollars? In general, is this hedged? If you have Euribor rates going up, how should we think about the back book funding costs in the quarter, if that makes sense?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Yeah. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Just on the funding side, I understand you have the benefits in the Baltics from higher market Euribor rates, but how should we think about your wholesale funding that is in euros and US dollars? In general, is this hedged? If you have Euribor rates going up, how should we think about the back book funding costs in the quarter, if that makes sense?

Speaker #4: Like in general, is the is this hedged and and kind of if if you have euro you rival rates going up, like how should we think about the the

Speaker #9: the back book funding costs in the quarter, if that makes sense.

Speaker #10: It makes sense, and that's the easiest question. I mean, everything is swapped back to floating, so I think that's the main part. Of course, when funding costs or when interest rates increase significantly, that could be somewhat of a drag.

Pawel Wyszynski: It makes sense, and that's the easiest question. Everything is swapped back to floating. I think that's the main part. Of course, when funding costs or when interest rates increase significantly, that could be somewhat of a drag. I would again say we don't really have timing effects. We don't have notice periods, et cetera. Then, of course, parts of the corporate book roll in. It's not evenly spread, so it depends which part of which corporate book rolls when. I think it is a bit more tricky for us trying to capture the timing effects, because then you need to know exactly the type of volume and exactly which date, and also where swap spreads are at that point in time.

Pawel Wyszynski: It makes sense, and that's the easiest question. Everything is swapped back to floating. I think that's the main part. Of course, when funding costs or when interest rates increase significantly, that could be somewhat of a drag. I would again say we don't really have timing effects. We don't have notice periods, et cetera. Then, of course, parts of the corporate book roll in. It's not evenly spread, so it depends which part of which corporate book rolls when. I think it is a bit more tricky for us trying to capture the timing effects, because then you need to know exactly the type of volume and exactly which date, and also where swap spreads are at that point in time.

Speaker #10: But I would again say we don't really have timing effects, we don't have notice periods, etc. And then, of course, parts of the corporate book roll in—it's not evenly spread, so it depends which part of the corporate book rolls when.

Speaker #10: So I think it is a bit more tricky for us, trying to capture the timing effects, because then you need to know exactly the type of volume, exactly which date, and also where swap spreads are at that point in time.

Speaker #10: So I think even sitting inside the bank, it's quite tricky to solve for this, because you would need to have all of the loans.

Pawel Wyszynski: I think even sitting inside the bank, it's quite tricky to solve for this, because you would need to have all of the loans. I wouldn't be flagging any large negative timing effects from that perspective. But again, we typically try not to comment too much on these timing effects as they are quite tricky to capture.

Pawel Wyszynski: I think even sitting inside the bank, it's quite tricky to solve for this, because you would need to have all of the loans. I wouldn't be flagging any large negative timing effects from that perspective. But again, we typically try not to comment too much on these timing effects as they are quite tricky to capture.

Speaker #10: So I wouldn’t be, kind of, flagging any large negative timing effects from that perspective. But again, we typically try not to comment too much on these timing effects, as they are quite tricky to capture.

Speaker #9: But sorry, just to come back on the swaps. So you swap any fixed euro funding into floating SEK, or floating euros? Like, do you do a cross-currency swap, or do you just do a plain vanilla FX swap?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): But sorry, just to get back on the swap. So you swap any fixed euro funding into floating SEK or floating euros? Do you do a cross-currency swap or do you do just a plain vanilla FX swap?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Sorry, just to get back on the swap. So you swap any fixed euro funding into floating SEK or floating euros? Do you do a cross-currency swap or do you do just a plain vanilla FX swap?

Speaker #10: I think we would do both, given that we have lending both in SEK and euro and dollars, and we take up funding in different currencies.

Pawel Wyszynski: I think we would do both, given that we have lending both in SEK and euro and dollars, and we take up funding in different currencies. Again, it gets even more complicated when trying to look at both the FX side and the swap side just to getting it down to floating. This is why I'm saying looking at this internally is fairly complex.

Pawel Wyszynski: I think we would do both, given that we have lending both in SEK and euro and dollars, and we take up funding in different currencies. Again, it gets even more complicated when trying to look at both the FX side and the swap side just to getting it down to floating. This is why I'm saying looking at this internally is fairly complex.

Speaker #10: So again, it gets even more complicated when trying to look at both the FX side and the swap side, just to getting it down to floating.

Speaker #10: This is why I'm saying that looking at this internally is fairly complex.

Speaker #9: Okay, and what about these swaps? Because, I mean, you have quite a lot of non-Swedish funding. Are there any mark-to-market impacts that we should take into consideration for your core equity Tier 1 in the quarter?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Okay. What about these swaps? Because you have quite a lot of non-Swedish funding. Are there any mark-to-market impacts that we should take into consideration for your Core Equity Tier 1 in the quarter?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Okay. What about these swaps? Because you have quite a lot of non-Swedish funding. Are there any mark-to-market impacts that we should take into consideration for your Core Equity Tier 1 in the quarter?

Speaker #10: No, we typically don't run that much interest rate risk on our books, which would flow through Other Comprehensive Income. So, not really material for us, no. And we have no hedges, which again run in Other Comprehensive Income from that perspective.

Pawel Wyszynski: No, we typically don't run that much interest rate risks on our books, which would flow through other comprehensive income. Not really material for us. No. We have no hedges, which again, run in other comprehensive income from that perspective. No, I would say not meaningful for us.

Pawel Wyszynski: No, we typically don't run that much interest rate risks on our books, which would flow through other comprehensive income. Not really material for us. No. We have no hedges, which again, run in other comprehensive income from that perspective. No, I would say not meaningful for us.

Speaker #10: So, no, I would say—not meaningful for us.

Speaker #9: Okay. And then my second question would be on the banking tax. We had your CEO in the local press being quite vocal about Sweden potentially proposing a banking tax.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Okay. My second question would be on the banking tax. We had your CEO in the local press being quite vocal about Sweden potentially proposing a banking tax. Could you just remind us of what your latest views are here?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Okay. My second question would be on the banking tax. We had your CEO in the local press being quite vocal about Sweden potentially proposing a banking tax. Could you just remind us of what your latest views are here?

Speaker #9: Could you just remind us what your latest views are here?

Speaker #10: I don't think we have a view on the banking tax. I think if you read the article and not just the headline, the answer he gave was pretty straightforward: you have the opposing parties winning, and the opposing parties went on election of introducing a bank tax.

Pawel Wyszynski: I don't think we have a view on the banking tax. I think if you read the article and not the headline, I think the answer he gave was pretty straightforward, i.e., you have the opposing parties winning and the opposing parties went on election of introducing a bank tax. Hence, the probability of having a bank tax is higher given that the current government didn't get the-

Pawel Wyszynski: I don't think we have a view on the banking tax. I think if you read the article and not the headline, I think the answer he gave was pretty straightforward, i.e., you have the opposing parties winning and the opposing parties went on election of introducing a bank tax. Hence, the probability of having a bank tax is higher given that the current government didn't get the-

Speaker #10: Hence, the probability of having a bank tax is higher given that the current government didn't get the majority of the votes. So I think that was what he said, and I think the headline was somewhat different.

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): is now exiting

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Is now exiting

Pawel Wyszynski: majority of the votes. I think that was what he said, then I think the headline was somewhat different.

Pawel Wyszynski: Majority of the votes. I think that was what he said, then I think the headline was somewhat different.

Speaker #10: So we have no view on the bank tax from that perspective. We wait like you guys and see what happens.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Okay.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Okay.

[Analyst] (Barclays): We have no view on the bank tax from that perspective. We wait like you guys and see what happens.

Pawel Wyszynski: We have no view on the bank tax from that perspective. We wait like you guys and see what happens.

Speaker #9: And do you have any view on the resolution fund fee?

[Analyst] (Barclays): Do you have any view on the resolution fund fee?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Do you have any view on the resolution fund fee?

Speaker #10: Yes, of course. I have a view in terms of—I read what the Riksgälden, the Debt Office, is saying, and they're saying that it should be full.

Pawel Wyszynski: Yes, of course, I have a view in terms of I read what the Swedish National Debt Office is saying, and they are saying that it should be full November or December this year. I am hoping that they are right in their forecast.

Pawel Wyszynski: Yes, of course, I have a view in terms of I read what the Swedish National Debt Office is saying, and they are saying that it should be full November or December this year. I am hoping that they are right in their forecast.

Speaker #10: November or December this year. So obviously, I'm hoping that they're right in their forecast.

Speaker #9: Okay, and then final question. The FSA had a comment around the Pillar 2 add-on. Any thoughts on the Pillar 2 add-on and potential changes to risk?

[Analyst] (Barclays): Okay. Final question. The FSA had a comment around the Pillar 2 add on. Any kind of thoughts on the Pillar 2 add on and potential changes to this?

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Okay. Final question. The FSA had a comment around the Pillar 2 add on. Any kind of thoughts on the Pillar 2 add on and potential changes to this?

Speaker #10: Well, I think, you know, they wrote in their paper that they will move the Pillar 2 add-on to Pillar 1, so I think it's just to translate it back.

Pawel Wyszynski: Well, I think they wrote in their paper that they will move the Pillar 2 add on to Pillar 1. I think it is just to translate it back and I am not really sure if it is a proposal or decision or what it is. Let us see whenever we get more information on it.

Pawel Wyszynski: Well, I think they wrote in their paper that they will move the Pillar 2 add on to Pillar 1. I think it is just to translate it back and I am not really sure if it is a proposal or decision or what it is. Let us see whenever we get more information on it.

Speaker #10: And, you know, I'm not really sure if it is a proposal or a decision or what it is, so let's see whenever we get more information on it.

Speaker #9: Okay, great. Thank you so much. Namita?

[Analyst] (Barclays): Okay, great. Thank you so much.

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Pawel Wyszynski: Thank you, Namita.

Pawel Wyszynski: Thank you, Namita.

Speaker #10: Hi Powell, thanks for taking my question. You know, when you say the market's NII of $100 million, that...

[Analyst]: Hi, Pavel. Thanks for taking my question. When you say the market's NII of SEK 100 million, that goes to more normalized levels, which part of the NII are you talking about? Are you talking about the fixed income NII because that was also elevated in Q2, or are you talking about that traffic NII which also didn't reverse back in Q2?

[Analyst 1]: Hi, Pavel. Thanks for taking my question. When you say the market's NII of SEK 100 million, that goes to more normalized levels, which part of the NII are you talking about? Are you talking about the fixed income NII because that was also elevated in Q2, or are you talking about that traffic NII which also didn't reverse back in Q2?

Speaker #11: ...goes to more normalized levels. Which part of the NII are you talking about? Are you talking about the fixed income NII? Because that was also elevated in the second quarter. Or are you talking about that traffic NII, which also didn’t reverse back in the second quarter?

Speaker #10: Good question. No, I'm talking about the FICC-related NII. The other one is unchanged, or at least I'm not commenting on it. So I'm talking about the $100 million, which is elevated. We flag from time to time if it's elevated or not.

Pawel Wyszynski: Good question. No, I'm talking about the FICC related NII. The other one is unchanged, or at least I'm not commenting on it.

Pawel Wyszynski: Good question. No, I'm talking about the FICC related NII. The other one is unchanged, or at least I'm not commenting on it.

[Analyst]: Okay.

[Analyst 1]: Okay.

Pawel Wyszynski: I'm talking about the SEK 100 million, which is elevated, which we from time to time flag if it's elevated or not. That is the part I'm talking about.

Pawel Wyszynski: I'm talking about the SEK 100 million, which is elevated, which we from time to time flag if it's elevated or not. That is the part I'm talking about.

Speaker #10: So, that is the part I'm talking about.

Speaker #11: Okay, cool. So just— it's the fixed income one, right? Yes.

[Analyst]: Okay, cool. So it is the fixed income one, right?

[Analyst 1]: Okay, cool. So it is the fixed income one, right?

Pawel Wyszynski: Yes.

Pawel Wyszynski: Yes.

Speaker #10: Okay, perfect. Thank you. Or the FICC one.

[Analyst]: Okay, perfect. Thank you.

[Analyst 1]: Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Pawel Wyszynski: For the FICC one.

Pawel Wyszynski: For the FICC one.

Speaker #11: Thanks.

[Analyst]: Thanks.

[Analyst 1]: Thanks.

Speaker #10: Do we have any other questions on the line? If not, then thank you so much. We are still open for business today, but we go into silent period as of tomorrow, so please come back if you have any questions.

Pawel Wyszynski: Do we have any other questions on the line? If not, then thank you so much. We are still open for business today, but we go into silent period as of tomorrow, so please come back if you have any questions. With that, thank you and see you in a couple of weeks' time.

Pawel Wyszynski: Do we have any other questions on the line? If not, then thank you so much. We are still open for business today, but we go into silent period as of tomorrow, so please come back if you have any questions. With that, thank you and see you in a couple of weeks' time.

Operator: Is now exiting.

Operator: Is now exiting.

[Analyst]: Understandable.

[Analyst 1]: Understandable.

Operator: Is now exiting.

Operator: Is now exiting.

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Q3 2026 SEB SA Pre-Close Earnings Call

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Earnings

Q3 2026 SEB SA Pre-Close Earnings Call

SK

Wednesday, September 30th, 2026 at 1:30 PM

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