Q3 2026 Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc Earnings Call

October 29, 2026

Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Heritage Insurance Holdings Q3 2026 earnings conference call. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Heritage Insurance Holdings Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Kirk Lusk: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We invite you to visit the investors section of our website, investors.heritagepci.com, where the earnings release and our earnings call will be archived. These materials are available for replay or review at your convenience. Today's call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based upon management's current expectations and subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. In our earnings press release and our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make.

Speaker #2: expectations. Our statements are as of today, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make. For a description of the forward-looking statements and the risks that could cause our results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K earnings release and other SEC filings.

Kirk Lusk: For a description of the forward-looking statements and the risks that could cause our results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K earnings release and other SEC filings. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliations of, and other information regarding these measures can be found in our press release. With me on the call today is Ernie Garateix, our Chief Executive Officer. I will now turn the call over to Ernie.

Speaker #2: non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliations of and other information regarding these measures can be found in our press release. With me on the call today is Ernie Garrette, our Chief Executive Officer. will now turn the call over to Ernie.

Speaker #2: our Chief Executive Officer. I

Ernie Garateix: Thanks, Kirk, and good morning, everyone. Over the last several years, we have taken deliberate steps to improve our profitability, reduce volatility, and build a more diversified and resilient company. After a quiet storm season last year, Q3 brought catastrophe activity, including two hurricanes in Hawaii and a nor'easter. As a result, we absorbed $15.8 million of pre-tax catastrophe losses compared with none in Q3 of last year, and still grew diluted earnings per share to $1.72, up from $1.63 in the year-ago quarter. Net income was $51.1 million, up slightly from last year's $50.4 million. Through the first nine months of the year, we have generated net income of $149.3 million, up nearly 16%, while diluted earnings per share increased 18.5% to $4.94.

Ernie Garateix: Thanks, Kirk, and good morning, everyone. Over the last several years, we have taken deliberate steps to improve our profitability, reduce volatility, and build a more diversified and resilient company. After a quiet storm season last year, the Q3 brought catastrophe activity, including two hurricanes in Hawaii and a nor'easter. As a result, we absorbed $15.8 million of pre-tax catastrophe losses compared with none in Q3 of last year, and still grew diluted earnings per share to $1.72, up from $1.63 in the year-ago quarter. Net income was $51.1 million, up slightly from last year's $50.4 million. Through the first nine months of the year, we have generated net income of $149.3 million, up nearly 16%, while diluted earnings per share increased 18.5% to $4.94.

Speaker #3: Thanks, Kirk. And good morning, everyone. Over the last several years, we have taken deliberate steps to improve our profitability, reduce volatility, and build a more diversified and resilient company.

Speaker #3: After a quiet storm season last year, the third quarter brought catastrophe activity including two hurricanes in Hawaii and the northeastern. As a result, we absorbed 15.8 million of pre-tax catastrophe losses compared with none in the third quarter of last year.

Speaker #3: And still grew diluted earnings per share to $1.72. Up from $1.63 in the year-ago quarter. Net income was $51.1 million, up slightly from last year's $50.4 million.

Speaker #3: Through the first nine months of the year, we have generated net income of $149.3 million, up nearly 16%, while diluted earnings per share increased 18.5% to $4.94.

Ernie Garateix: Our annualized return on average equity was 36.1% year to date. Book value per share reached $20.22, up almost 43% from a year ago. Three elements of our strategy contributed to the quarter's results: underwriting discipline, diversification, and our reinsurance program. First, our underwriting discipline. Excluding catastrophes, weather, and prior year development, our loss ratio improved by nearly 4 points in the quarter. This improvement came despite significant pricing pressure in Florida's commercial residential market, which I will discuss shortly. It reflects years of disciplined rate setting, risk selection, and claims management, as well as Florida's improved legal environment. Second, diversification. Heritage is a super-regional carrier with a diverse portfolio of policies across 17 states. We write business on a surplus lines basis in 5 states.

Speaker #3: Our annualized return on average equity was 36.1% year to date, and book value per share reached $20.22, up almost 43% from a year ago.

Speaker #3: Three elements of our strategy contributed to the quarter's results. Underwriting discipline, diversification, and our reinsurance program. First, our underwriting discipline. Excluding catastrophes, weather, and prior development, our loss ratio improved by nearly 4 points in the quarter.

Speaker #3: This improvement came despite significant pricing pressure in Florida's commercial residential market. Which I'll discuss shortly. It reflects years of disciplined rate setting, risk selection, and claims management, as well as Florida's improved legal environment.

Speaker #3: Second, diversification. Heritage is a super-regional carrier with a diverse portfolio of policies across 17 states. We write business on a surplus lines basis in five states.

Ernie Garateix: More than half of our premium is written outside of Florida, including other states in the southeast, the northeast, the mid-Atlantic, Hawaii, and our excess and surplus line platforms. That diversification has made our earnings more durable while also providing more flexibility to allocate capital towards markets and products where we see the most attractive risk-adjusted returns. Third, our reinsurance program. The program we placed in June with more than $2.2 billion of limit and approximately $63 million of annualized savings is working as intended. It lowered our cost of protection while keeping our net retention at a manageable level. The Q3 was the first full quarter of those savings, and our ceded premium ratio fell to 41.7% from 46.1% a year ago.

Speaker #3: More than half of our premium is written outside of Florida, including other states in the Southeast, the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, Hawaii, and our access and surplus line platforms.

Speaker #3: That diversification has made our earnings more durable, while also providing more flexibility to allocate capital towards markets and products where we see the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Speaker #3: Third, our reinsurance program. The program we placed in June with more than $2.2 billion of limit and approximately $63 million of annualized savings is working as intended.

Speaker #3: It lowered our cost of protection while keeping our net retention at a manageable level. The third quarter was the first full quarter of those savings, and our ceded premium ratio fell to 41.7% from 46.1% a year ago.

Ernie Garateix: Now let me turn to market conditions, starting with the Florida commercial residential market, because it is the biggest moving part of our top line this quarter. The market has become very competitive, with new capacity and aggressive pricing. This has pressured our commercial premium in force down about 16% from a year ago, even though our policy count and insured values are up. That tells you the decline in premium is being driven by price, not a reduction in the underlying business we are writing. We have been very clear on these earnings calls. We will not chase underpriced business, and that will not change. We have walked away from accounts where the price no longer supports an adequate return, and we will continue to do so.

Speaker #3: Now, let me turn to market conditions, starting with the Florida commercial residential market, because it is the biggest moving part of our top line this quarter.

Speaker #3: The market has become very competitive, with new capacity and aggressive pricing. This has pressured our commercial premium enforced down about 16% from a year ago, even though our policy count and insured values are up.

Speaker #3: That tells you the decline in premium is being driven by price, not a reduction in the underlying business we are writing. We have been very clear on these earnings calls.

Speaker #3: We will not chase underpriced business, and that will not change. We have walked away from accounts where the price no longer supports an adequate return and we will continue to do so.

Ernie Garateix: I believe our geographic reach, which provides us with numerous opportunities to grow our commercial and personal residential business in markets where pricing and returns remain attractive, is undervalued. We are selectively adding new territories outside of Florida to expand our commercial product offering. This includes product offerings on an admitted as well as surplus lines basis. In New Jersey, for example, our commercial premium in force has grown about 12% this year. Turning to the personal residential market, trends continue to move in the right direction as the pace of policy count decline has slowed substantially. In the Q3, we lost roughly 2,900 personal lines policies, less than half the decline of a year ago. Premium in force is up slightly, and average premium per policy is up almost 5%.

Speaker #3: I believe our geographic reach, which provides us with numerous opportunities to grow our commercial and personal residential business in markets where pricing and returns remain attractive, is undervalued.

Speaker #3: We are selectively adding new territories outside of Florida to expand our commercial product offering. This includes product offerings on an admitted as well as surplus lines basis.

Speaker #3: In New Jersey, for example, our commercial premium enforce has grown about 12% this year. Turning to the personal residential market, trends continue to move in the right direction as the pace of policy count decline has slowed substantially.

Speaker #3: In the third quarter, we lost roughly 2,900 personal lines policies, less than half the decline of a year ago. Premium enforce is up slightly and average premium per policy is up almost 5%.

Ernie Garateix: Nearly all of our territories are open for new business, and agents in reopened markets continue to tell us they want to place more business with Heritage. Based on those trends, we continue to expect a return to personal lines policy count growth in 2027. We are also beginning to leverage our platform and capabilities in new markets. In Texas, we wrote our first excess and surplus lines policy in July and 86 policies written during the quarter. While it is still early and the contribution will be modest this year, the reception from agents has been strong. We believe Texas represents another attractive long-term growth opportunity where we can leverage our underwriting expertise and existing agent relationships while continuing to expand our geographic reach. Turning to capital, our position has never been stronger.

Speaker #3: Nearly all of our territories are open for new business, and agents and reopened markets continue to tell us they want to place more business with Heritage.

Speaker #3: Nearly all of our territories are open for new business, and agents and reopened markets continue to tell us they want to place more business with Heritage. we continue to expect a return to personal lines policy count growth in 2027.

Speaker #3: capabilities in new markets. Based on those trends, We are also In Texas, we wrote our first excess and surplus lines policy in July, and 86 policies written during the quarter.

Speaker #3: While it is still early and the contribution will be modest this year, the reception from agents has been strong. We believe Texas represents another attractive long-term growth opportunity where we can leverage our underwriting expertise and existing agent relationships while continuing to expand our geographic reach.

Speaker #3: Turning to capital, our position has never been stronger. We ended the third quarter with shareholders' equity of $599 million, and a debt-to-capital ratio of 10.5%.

Ernie Garateix: We ended the Q3 with shareholders' equity of $599 million and a debt-to-capital ratio of 10.5%. Year to date, we have repurchased about 1.1 million shares for $27.9 million, representing roughly 3.6% of shares outstanding at the start of the year, and we have $34.1 million remaining under our current authorization. Looking forward, our priorities are unchanged. First, we will continue to invest in profitable organic growth as our reopened territories and new markets scale. Second, we will continue to repurchase shares when we believe our stock trades below intrinsic value. Third, we will maintain a strong balance sheet that allows us to absorb weather events without changing course. In closing, we delivered solid earnings and continued book value growth in the Q3, with weather activity returning to a level higher than last year.

Speaker #3: Year to date, we have repurchased about $1.1 million shares for $27.9 million. Representing roughly 3.6% of shares outstanding at the start of the year.

Speaker #3: And we have 34.1 million remaining under our current authorization. Looking forward, our priorities are unchanged. First, we will continue to invest in profitable organic growth as our reopened territories and new markets scale.

Speaker #3: Second, we will continue to repurchase shares when we believe our stock trades below intrinsic value. Third, we will maintain a strong balance sheet that allows us to absorb weather events without changing course.

Speaker #3: In closing, we delivered solid earnings and continued book value growth in the third quarter. With weather activity returning to a level higher than last year.

Ernie Garateix: We are confident in the path ahead and remain focused on disciplined underwriting, smart capital allocation, and building long-term value for our shareholders. I want to thank our employees, especially our claims team, who supported policyholders through this storm season, along with our agents, reinsurance partners, and shareholders. Kirk, back to you.

Speaker #3: We are confident in the path ahead, and remain focused on disciplined underwriting, smart capital allocation, and building long-term value for our shareholders. I want to thank our employees, especially our claims team, who supported policyholders through this storm season.

Speaker #3: Along with our agents, reinsurance partners, and shareholders. Kirk, back to you.

Kirk Lusk: Thank you, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. For the Q3, Heritage reported net income of $51.1 million, or $1.72 per diluted share, compared with $50.4 million, or $1.63 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Despite the higher level of weather activity as already discussed, diluted earnings per share increased 5.5%, aided by a 4% reduction in diluted shares outstanding from our share repurchase program. For the first nine months of 2026, net income was $149.3 million, or $4.94 per diluted share, compared with $128.9 million or $4.17 per diluted share a year ago. The annualized return on average equity was 35.1% for the quarter and 36.1% year to date. The quarterly figure is lower than last year's 49.2% at the Q3 of 2025, because average equity is more than 40% higher, not because of a decline in earnings.

Speaker #2: Thank you, Ernie. And good morning, everyone. For the third quarter, Heritage reported net income of $51.1 million or $1.72 per diluted share compared with $50.4 million or $1.63 per diluted share in the prior year quarter.

Speaker #2: Despite the higher level of weather activity as Ernie discussed, diluted earnings per share increased 5.5%, aided by a 4% reduction in diluted shares outstanding from our share repurchase program.

Speaker #2: For the first nine months of 2026, net income was $149.3 million or $4.94 per diluted share compared with $128.9 million or $4.17 per diluted share a year ago.

Speaker #2: The annualized return on average equity was 35.1% for the quarter and 36.1% year to date. The quarterly figure is lower than last year's 49.2% at the third quarter of 2025 because average equity is more than 40% higher, not because of a decline in earnings.

Kirk Lusk: Total revenue increased 3.2% to $219.2 million from an increase in net earned premiums and investment income. Net realized gains and losses included a non-recurring $2.7 million gain in the prior year quarter, which had a negative comparable impact on revenue in the current quarter. Gross premiums written were $322.8 million, down 3.1%, primarily reflecting lower Florida commercial residential premium, partially offset by growth in personal lines and non-Florida commercial markets. Gross premiums earned were $352.8 million, compared to $362 million in the year-ago quarter. Ceded premiums declined 11.8% to $147.2 million, reflecting the first full quarter of savings from our June catastrophe excess of loss program and the reduction of our Northeast net quota share at year-end 2025. The ceded premium ratio was 41.7%, down 4.4 points from a year ago. As a result, net premiums earned increased 5.4% to $205.6 million.

Speaker #2: Total revenue increased 3.2% to $219.2 million from an increase in net earned premiums and investment income. Net realized gains and losses, included a non-recurring 2.7 million gain in the prior year quarter, which had a negative comparable impact on revenue in the current quarter.

Speaker #2: Gross premiums written, were $322.8 million, down 3.1%, primarily reflecting lower Florida commercial residential premium partially offset by growth in personal lines and non-Florida commercial markets.

Speaker #2: Gross premiums earned were $352.8 million, compared with $362 million in the year ago quarter. Seeded premiums declined 11.8% to $147.2 million reflecting the first full quarter of savings from our June catastrophe excess and loss program and the reduction of our Northeast net quota share at year-end 2025.

Speaker #2: The seeded premium ratio was 41.7%, down 4.4 points from a year ago. As a result, net premiums earned increased 5.4% to $205.6 million. Net investment income rose 17.3% to $11.4 million driven by a larger portfolio as average cash and invested assets were about $185 million higher than a year ago.

Kirk Lusk: Net investment income rose 17.3% to $11.4 million, driven by a larger portfolio as average cash and invested assets were about $185 million higher than a year ago. Cash and invested assets totaled $1.4 billion at quarter end, and the fixed income portfolio has an average duration of 3.3 years and remains high quality. Net losses and loss adjustment expense were $81.4 million, compared with $74.8 million in the prior year quarter, and the net loss ratio was 39.6%, compared with 38.3% in the prior year quarter. Current accident quarter weather and catastrophe losses totaled $33.6 million, compared with $13.8 million a year ago. That included $9.1 million from hurricanes Lala and Lowell, and $6.7 million from the September nor'easter, along with $17.8 million of non-catastrophe weather. Those losses were largely offset by favorable development.

Speaker #2: Cash and invested assets totaled $1.4 billion at quarter end, and the fixed income portfolio has an average duration of 3.3 years and remains high quality.

Speaker #2: Net losses and loss adjustment expense were $81.4 million compared with $74.8 million in the prior year quarter. And the net loss ratio was 39.6% compared with 38.3% in the prior year quarter.

Speaker #2: Current accident quarter weather and catastrophe losses totaled $33.6 million, compared with $13.8 million a year ago. That included $9.1 million from Hurricanes La La and Lol and $6.7 million from the September Nor'Easter, along with $17.8 million of non-catastrophe weather.

Speaker #2: Those losses were largely offset by favorable development. We recognized $14 million of net favorable prior year reserve development compared with $5 million a year ago in the third quarter.

Kirk Lusk: We recognized $14 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, compared with $5 million a year ago in the Q3. The development is spread across several accident years and continues to reflect stable frequency, manageable severity, and claims closing below our expectations. We consider that a strong result, especially given the pricing pressure in the Florida commercial residential market. The net expense ratio improved 1.2 points to 33.4%. Policy acquisition costs were essentially flat at $45.1 million, as lower premium volume offset by $1.2 million of lower ceding commissions from the reduced net quota share. General and administrative expenses rose 5.2% to $23.5 million, reflecting higher comp and related expenses and temporary staffing, partially offset by a non-recurring $1 million refund of corporate reinsurance premium.

Speaker #2: The development is spread across several accident years and continues to reflect stable frequency, manageable severity, and claims closing below our expectations. We consider that a strong result, especially given the pricing pressure in the Florida commercial residential market.

Speaker #2: The net expense ratio improved 1.2 points to 33.4%. Policy acquisition costs were essentially flat at $45.1 million as lower premium volume offset by $1.2 million of lower seeding commissions from the reduced net quota share.

Speaker #2: General and administrative expenses rose 5.2% to $23.5 million reflecting higher comp and related expenses, and temporarily staffing partially offset by a non-recurring $1.0 million refund of corporate reinsurance premium.

Kirk Lusk: The net combined ratio was relatively flat at 73% compared to 72.9% in the prior year quarter, despite the higher net loss ratio of 1.3%. Effective tax rate was 24.5% compared to 26.2% in the prior year quarter, reflecting the level of pre-tax income and permanent items. Shareholders' equity was $599.1 million at 30 September, and book value per share was $20.22, up 23.4% from year end and up 42.9% from a year ago. The increase from year end reflects strong earnings, partially offset by $27.9 million of share repurchases and $22.7 million increase in accumulated other comprehensive loss, net of tax, representing higher unrealized losses on the fixed income portfolio. Those unrealized losses are driven by rising interest rates, not credit, and we expect them to reverse as securities mature, since we do not anticipate selling investments prior to maturity.

Speaker #2: The net combined ratio was relatively flat at 73% compared with 72.9% in the prior year quarter. Despite the higher net loss ratio of $1.3%.

Speaker #2: Effective tax rate was 24.5% compared to 26.2% in the prior year quarter, reflecting the level of pre-tax income and permitted items. Shareholders' equity was $599.1 million at September 30, and book value per share was $20.22, up 23.4% from year-end and up 42.9% from a year ago.

Speaker #2: The increase from year end reflects strong earnings partially offset by $27.9 million of share repurchases and $22.7 million increase in accumulated other comprehensive loss, net of tax, representing higher unrealized losses on the fixed income portfolio.

Speaker #2: Those unrealized losses are driven by rising interest rates, not credit. And we expect them to reverse as securities mature since we do not anticipate selling, investments, prior to maturity.

Kirk Lusk: During the quarter, we purchased 100,000 shares for $3.3 million, bringing year-to-date repurchases to 1,101,508 shares for $27.9 million. We have $34.1 million remaining under our authorization, which runs through 31 December 2026. Long-term debt was $70.4 million, down $8 million since year end. Our long-term debt to capital ratio improved to 10.5% from 15.3% a year ago. We also continue to have $75 million of undrawn delayed draw term loan capacity, as well as $15 million available on our revolving credit facility. Non-regulated cash at quarter end was $58 million, and combined statutory surplus was $474.9 million, compared with $439.4 million at 30 June. To summarize, we delivered solid earnings in a quarter with more normal weather activity, grew book value per share, returned capital to shareholders, and further strengthened the balance sheet.

Speaker #2: During the quarter, we purchased 100,000 shares for $3.3 million, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $1,101,508 shares for $27.9 million. We have 34.1 million remaining under our authorization which runs through December 31st, 2026.

Speaker #2: Long-term debt was $70.4 million down $8 million since year end. Our long-term debt to capital ratio improved to 10.5% from 15.3% a year ago, we also continue to have $75 million of undrawn delayed draw term loan capacity as well as $15 million available on our revolving credit facility.

Speaker #2: Non-regulated cash at quarter end was $58 million, and combined statutory surplus was $474.9 million compared with $439.4 million at June 30th. To summarize, we delivered solid earnings in a quarter with more normal weather activity, grew book value per share, returned capital to shareholders, and further strengthened the balance sheet.

Kirk Lusk: As we head into year-end, we are well-capitalized, our reinsurance program is in place through May of 2027, and we see attractive opportunities to continue our progress. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Speaker #2: As we head into year end, we are well capitalized, our reinsurance program is in place through May of 2027, and we see attractive opportunities to continue our progress.

Speaker #2: Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the key. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble a roster. The first question comes from Karol Chmiel with Citizens. Please go ahead.

Speaker #1: Thank you.

Speaker #3: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

Speaker #3: If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble a roster.

Speaker #3: The first question comes from Carol Camille with Citizens. Please go ahead.

Speaker #1: Thank you.

Karol Chmiel: Yes. Hi, good morning. I have got two questions. First one regarding the weather losses. It was a total of 33.6, I believe, total, and of which only 15.8 were the actual cat losses in Hawaii and the Northeast. So I am just wanting to know, can you give more color on the balance of the weather losses outside of the cats? Then maybe you can help define those losses and how you define them internally.

Speaker #4: Yes, hi, good morning. I just got two questions. First one, regarding the weather losses, it was a total of $33.6, I believe, total and of which only 15.8 were the actual cat losses in Hawaii and the Northeast.

Speaker #4: So I'm just wanting to know can you give more color on the balance of the weather losses outside of the cats and then maybe you can help define those losses and how you define them internally.

Kirk Lusk: Yeah. Those are just typically much smaller events. We had about probably $6 million, just under $6 million in the Northeast and a little over $12 million in the Southeast, predominantly in Florida. Those are just smaller storms, either hail, wind, that type of stuff, where we just had some smaller losses.

Speaker #2: Yeah, those are just typically much smaller events. And we had about probably $6 million just under $6 million in the Northeast and a little over like $12 million in the Southeast, predominantly in Florida.

Speaker #2: And so those are just smaller storms either hail, wind, that type of stuff where we just have some smaller losses.

Karol Chmiel: Okay. So it is a compilation of different losses throughout the East Coast. Okay.

Speaker #4: Okay. So it's a compilation of different losses throughout the East Coast. Okay. And then just my second question would be just the growth comment that Ernie made regarding New Jersey.

Kirk Lusk: Correct.

Karol Chmiel: Then just my second question would be just the growth comment that Ernie made regarding New Jersey. Is there any more that you want to maybe share about your growth in the Northeast?

Speaker #4: Is there any more that you want to maybe share about your growth in the Northeast?

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. So that comment was specifically to the commercial lines. We made the comment about where Florida is in the aggressive pricing.

Speaker #2: Yeah, so that comment was specifically

Speaker #5: to the commercial lines. We made the comment about where Florida is and the aggressive pricing and the competition there. So we've been growing with the commercial book in other regions such as New York, New Jersey, Hawaii, and just launched South Carolina as well.

Karol Chmiel: Okay

Ernie Garateix: and the competition there. We've been growing with the commercial book in other regions such as New York, New Jersey, Hawaii, and just launched South Carolina as well.

Karol Chmiel: Okay. Lastly, just in general, because I think there was a comment in the press release that personal residential is offsetting the pressures of the Florida commercial residential. Is there any particular region that you want to maybe mention that is contributing to that balance?

Speaker #4: Okay. And then just lastly, just in general, because I think there was a comment in the press release that personal residential is offsetting the pressures of the Florida commercial residential.

Speaker #4: Is there any particular region that you want to maybe mention that is contributing to that balance?

Kirk Lusk: It's mostly the Northeast, but Hawaii did have a little bit of impact there also.

Speaker #2: I mean, it's mostly the Northeast, but the Hawaii did have a little bit of impact there also.

Karol Chmiel: Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Speaker #4: Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. Thank you, Karol.

Speaker #5: Thank you, Carol.

Operator: The next question comes from Mitchell Rubin with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: The next question comes from Mitchell Rubin with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Mitchell Rubin: Hey, good morning. This is Mitch on for Greg. Congrats on the quarter.

Speaker #6: Hey, good morning. This is Mitch on for Greg. Congrats on the quarter. What renewal rate changes are you achieving on Florida commercial residential today?

Kirk Lusk: Thank you. Good morning.

Mitchell Rubin: What renewal rate changes are you achieving on Florida commercial residential today, and how does that compare with earlier in the year?

Speaker #6: And how does that compare with earlier in the year?

Kirk Lusk: The retention rates are in the mid-80s, and they are actually above where they were previously. So it has improved slightly. Although I must admit, when we look going forward, we are expecting it to not climb significantly from where it is, just from a retention standpoint. Our new business has been strong, and we actually expect possibly that we can pick up a little bit more on the new business side.

Speaker #2: Yeah, the retention rates are in the mid-80s. And they're actually above where they were previously. So it's improved slightly. Although, I I must admit, when we look going forward, we are expecting it to not climb significantly from where it is just from a retention standpoint.

Speaker #2: Our new business has been strong and we actually expect possibly that we can pick up a little bit more on the new business side.

Mitchell Rubin: Oh, I am sorry. I was looking for the renewal rate, not retention.

Speaker #6: Oh, I'm sorry. I was looking for the renewal rate. Not retention.

Kirk Lusk: Oh, the renewal rate. Oh, the price rate?

Speaker #2: Oh, the renewal rate. The price rate.

Mitchell Rubin: Yes. Thank you.

Speaker #6: Yes. Thank you.

Kirk Lusk: Yes. Okay. We are expecting that to continue to decrease. I think that if we look into next year, I think that you could be looking at another 10% to 18%, based upon what we are seeing right now. We are hoping it holds a little bit more. One of the things that we are seeing, which is very favorable to that book of business, is even with the price decreases, we are not seeing much of an increase in the loss ratio. It did creep up a little bit a couple of quarters, but it seems to be leveled off. Therefore, even with the price decreases, it is a profitable book of business.

Speaker #2: Yes. Okay. I mean, we're expecting that to continue to decrease. I think that if we look kind of into next year, I think that you could be looking at another 10 to 18 percent based upon kind of what we're seeing right now.

Speaker #2: We're hoping it holds a little bit more. One of the things that we are seeing, which is very favorable to that book of business, is even with the price decreases, we are not seeing much of an increase in the loss ratio.

Speaker #2: It did creep up a little bit a couple of quarters, but it seems to be leveled off. And so therefore, even with the price decreases, it is a profitable book of business.

Mitchell Rubin: Thank you. Makes sense. As you approach NBIC's year-end quota share renewal, how are you thinking about your target cession level?

Speaker #6: Thank you, makes sense. As you approach NBIC's year-end quota share renewal, how are you thinking about your target session level?

Kirk Lusk: We have been dropping that in the last couple of years by anywhere from 5% to 7%. Based upon pricing, I think that we probably look at something comparable.

Speaker #2: We've been dropping that in the last couple of years. By anywhere from 5 to 7 percent. And based upon pricing, I think that we probably look at something comparable.

Mitchell Rubin: Appreciate the answers.

Speaker #6: Appreciate the answers.

Kirk Lusk: Yeah.

Ernie Garateix: All right. Thank you.

Speaker #5: All right, thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Maxwell Fritscher with Truist. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: The next question comes from Maxwell Fritcher with Twist. Please go ahead.

Maxwell Fritscher: Hi, good morning. Thank you. I am calling in for Mark Hughes.

Speaker #7: Hi, good morning. Thank you. I'm calling in from Mark Hughes. I'm sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks, but there are any early indications on losses from Hurricane Isaiah earlier this month?

Kirk Lusk: Yeah.

Maxwell Fritscher: I'm sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks, but are there any early indications on losses from Hurricane Isaias earlier this month?

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. To begin with, we don't have a lot of exposures up there. Just to give you kind of a perspective, we did go up there in the Pensacola, Destin area. We had our hurricane cat team there. They had two insurance villages. One was closed down. Destin was closed down within 3 days. Pensacola lasted a little bit longer, but we don't expect a lot of losses from that area just because we don't have a lot of exposures there.

Speaker #4: Yeah, so to begin with, we don't have a lot of exposures up there, just to give you kind of a perspective. We did go up there in the Pensacola Destin area.

Speaker #4: We had our Hurricane Cat team there. They had two insurance villages. One was closed down. Destin was closed down within three days. Pensacola lasts a little bit longer.

Speaker #4: But we don't expect a lot of losses from that area, just because we don't have a lot of exposure there.

Maxwell Fritscher: Great. Thank you. What are your thoughts more broadly around top-line trajectory, puts and takes with the Florida commercial pricing? Are you expecting that to inflect positively in gross premiums written in Q4? Should we expect any material contribution from the Texas product in 2027?

Speaker #7: Great, thank you. And then what are your thoughts more broadly around top line trajectory puts and takes with the Florida commercial pricing? Are you expecting that to inflect positively in gross premiums written in 4Q and then should we expect any material contribution from the Texas product in 27?

Kirk Lusk: I'm hesitant to say it's going to be material, but I think it is going to be positive over a period of time. I think that when we look at it, historically speaking, it took us about 4 years to get to $40 million of premium in California. I would expect Texas has the potential to grow a little faster than that because we already had a distribution network there of existing agents. I think that that could accelerate a little further. I think that when we look at some of the price decreases, some of the competitive pressures, that type of stuff, I think our growth is going to be relatively minor, so we're talking about into the single digits.

Speaker #2: I hesitate to say it's going to be material, but I think it is going to be positive over a period of time. I think that when we look at it, it's historically speaking, it took us about four years to get to $40 million of premium in California.

Speaker #2: I would expect Texas has the potential to grow a little faster than that because we already had a distribution network there of existing agents.

Speaker #2: So, I think that could accelerate a little further. I think that when we look at some of the price decreases, some of the competitive pressures, and that type of stuff, I mean, I think our growth is going to be relatively minor.

Speaker #2: So we're talking about into the single digits.

Maxwell Fritscher: Thank you. On the ceded premium ratio, how do you expect that to trend as premiums grow? Mid 41s, is that a good run rate, or would you expect that to go any lower?

Speaker #7: Thank you. And then on the ceded premium ratio, how do you expect that to trend as premiums grow mid-40s? Is that a good run rate, or would you expect that to go any lower?

Kirk Lusk: I think that is a good run rate. I think that we will see what the renewal looks like next year. I think that there is a good possibility it could be down a little further next year, so that would have a favorable impact towards the second half of next year.

Speaker #2: I think that's a good run rate. I mean, I think that we'll see what the renewal looks like next year. I think that there's a good possibility it could be down a little further next year.

Speaker #2: So that would have a favorable impact towards the second half of next year.

Maxwell Fritscher: Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker #7: Great. Thank you very much.

Kirk Lusk: Thank you.

Ernie Garateix: Thank you.

Speaker #5: Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Cam Bianchi with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: The next question comes from Cambianki with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Cam Bianchi: Hi, good morning. This is Cam in for Paul. Congrats on the quarter.

Speaker #8: Hi, good morning. This is Cameron for Paul. Congrats on the quarter. I'm curious if you could elaborate on any incremental competition in the Florida personal market, if any.

Ernie Garateix: Thank you.

Cam Bianchi: Just curious if you could elaborate on any incremental competition in the Florida personal market, if any.

Ernie Garateix: I am sorry, was it competition on the personal lines market?

Speaker #4: Sure. I'm sorry. It was competition on the personal lines market?

Cam Bianchi: Yes, in Florida.

Speaker #8: Yes, yeah, in Florida.

Ernie Garateix: Well, again, in Florida, we have seen more competition come in, over 20 new companies over the last two years. Most of those companies have been focused on the takeout. We have not done a takeout since 2018. But what we do expect into 2027 is some of those start to write new voluntary business out there. So we are starting to see some of these new companies out there, which again, is why our focus has been on the diversification, a launch into Texas, and expanding our product lines through our geographic footprint.

Speaker #4: Yeah. So again, in Florida, we have seen more competition come in—over 20 new companies over the last two years. Most of those companies have been focused on the takeout.

Speaker #4: We have not done a takeout since 2018. But what we do expect into 27 is some of those start to write new voluntary business out there.

Speaker #4: So we're starting to see some of these new companies out there which, again, is why our focus has been on the diversification launch into Texas.

Speaker #4: And expanding our product lines through our geographic footprint.

Cam Bianchi: Got it. On your footprint outside of Florida, what geographies do you find to be most attractive at this point in time, and where are you seeing the most growth outside of Florida?

Speaker #8: Got it. And then on your footprint outside of Florida, what geographies do you find to be most attractive at this point in time? And where are you seeing the most growth outside of Florida?

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. It is pretty spread. Again, attractive in the Northeast where we are rate adequate. The Northeast, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut has been growing for us. Hawaii is rate adequate as well, and they have seen some growth out there as well. So we are pretty optimistic about the entire footprint and where we are at. The one thing is we will remain underwriters and make sure that, again, that we are getting pricing where it is attractive based on risk return.

Speaker #4: Yeah, so it is pretty spread again, attractive in the northeast where we are rate adequate. In the northeast New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut has been growing for us.

Speaker #4: Hawaii is rate adequate as well. They've seen some growth out there as well. So we're pretty optimistic about the entire footprint and where we're at.

Speaker #4: The one thing is what will remain with underwriters and make sure that, again, that we're getting pricing where it's attractive based on risk return.

Cam Bianchi: Got it. Just one more from me. It looks like you are prioritizing profitability over growth in commercial residential. What would it take for the tides to change in that market from a growth perspective?

Speaker #8: Got it. Just one more from me. It looks like you're prioritizing profitability over growth in commercial residential. What would it take for the tides to change in that market from a growth perspective?

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. It is a great question in the sense that there are new entrants into that market, and again, there is going to be, my opinion, would be some external market conditions that would change, whether that is an event, whether that is reinsurance pricing. But again, we remain disciplined and become underwriters first and foremost and understand what that risk return is going to be out there. I think the agents have valued that. Our PIF count is actually up, even given some of the pricing being down.

Speaker #4: Yeah, it's a great question. In the sense that there are new interests into that market. And again, there's going to be my opinion would be some external market conditions that would change whether that's an event, whether that's reinsurance pricing, but again, we remain disciplined and become underwriters first and foremost and understand what that risk return is going to be out there.

Speaker #4: And I think the agents have valued that. Our PIF count is actually up even given some of the pricing being down.

Cam Bianchi: Got it. Thank you.

Speaker #8: Got it. Thank you.

Ernie Garateix: All right. Appreciate it.

Speaker #4: I appreciate it.

Operator: Once again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from Brendan McCarthy with Sidoti. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. The next question comes from Brendan McCarthy with Sudoty. Please go ahead.

Brendan McCarthy: Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question here.

Speaker #7: Great, good morning. Thanks for taking my question here. I just have a quick question on the reinsurance savings. I think you outlined about 63 million in reinsurance savings secured this year.

Ernie Garateix: Yeah.

Brendan McCarthy: I just have a quick question on the reinsurance savings. I think you outlined about $63 million in reinsurance savings secured this year. What kind of runway for additional savings do you see in 2027 and beyond? Maybe kind of touch on what markets are driving those savings.

Speaker #7: What kind of runway for additional savings do you see in 2027 and beyond? And maybe kind of touch on what markets are driving those savings.

Kirk Lusk: Well, I think that right now what we're hearing is that because of the lack of storms, some additional capacity coming into the marketplace. I think we're hearing it could be down anywhere from a -5% to a -7% next year. Based upon the trend, it's possible it could be higher than that. I think that most people are looking for, hopefully, it's going to stabilize a little bit around that -5% to -8%, which would then help us again a little bit more next year. To give you an idea, this year, the reduction was up around 20%, so that's why it was the larger number. So would expect a decrease next year, but not to the same extent as this year.

Speaker #8: Okay. I think that right

Speaker #2: now, what we're hearing is that because of the lack of storms, some additional capacity coming into the marketplace, I mean, I think we're hearing it could be down anywhere from a minus 5 to a minus 7 next year.

Speaker #2: And based upon the trend, I mean, it's possible it could be higher than that. I think that most people are looking for hopefully it's going to stabilize a little bit around that minus 5 to minus 8%, which would then help us again a little bit more next year.

Speaker #2: Do you have any idea? This year, the reduction was up around 20%. So, therefore, that's why it was the larger numbers. So, we would expect a decrease next year, but not to the same extent as this year.

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. We would expect after the 1/1 renewals to get a better idea of that. So we're still a little early in the stages but having discussions with reinsurers as we speak.

Speaker #4: Yeah. And we would expect, after the 1/1 renewals, to get a better idea of that. So we're still a little early in the stages, but having discussions with reinsurers as we speak.

Brendan McCarthy: Understood. That's helpful context. That's all for me. Thank you.

Speaker #7: Understood, that's helpful context. That's all from me. Thank you. Yeah, thank you.

Ernie Garateix: Thank you.

Kirk Lusk: Yeah, thank you.

Operator: This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garateix for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garrity for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Ernie Garateix: Yeah. We would like to thank you for joining the call and hope everyone has a great day.

Speaker #4: Yeah, we'd like to thank you for joining the call and hope everyone has a great day.

Operator: The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Q3 2026 Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc Earnings Call

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Heritage Insurance Holdings

HRTG

Earnings

Q3 2026 Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Thursday, October 29th, 2026 at 1:00 PM

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Heritage Insurance Holdings

Earnings