Alternative Data Market to Reach USD 40.35 Billion by 2035 as AI Developers and Corporations Expand Data Buying, Credence Research Finds

Credence Research estimates the global alternative data market at $6.32 billion in 2025 and projects $40.35 billion by 2035, a 20.37% CAGR; its 2026 estimate is $7.56 billion. North America represented 57.3% of modeled 2025 value, while Technology and AI developers are projected to grow at 28.50% annually. These are research-model estimates, not company-reported results, and the report highlights privacy, licensing, and data-quality constraints on adoption.

Analysis

The investable signal is not the headline market forecast but the potential shift in who pays for data: AI developers could broaden demand beyond hedge funds, while distribution through research platforms may determine which vendors capture the economics. Bloomberg’s Similarweb integration is evidence of a route to market, not evidence of material incremental revenue for Similarweb (SMWB). If intermediaries bundle datasets, they can lower customer acquisition friction yet pressure standalone vendor pricing and retain part of the economics.

The forecast is a consultancy model, not disclosed vendor revenue or bookings; do not capitalize it into FDS, MCO, PL, SMWB, SPGI or LSEG estimates without company-level evidence. The growth case also has a supply-side constraint: privacy enforcement can remove sensitive location inventory, while web-scraped data faces distinct licensing and rights risks. Compliant, well-documented feeds may gain share, but compliance costs and customer diligence can delay conversion. Planet Labs (PL) may benefit only if demand specifically extends to licensed satellite datasets; the article gives no evidence of a near-term revenue uplift.

Near term, likely limited read-through absent vendor disclosures. Over 1–3 months, watch contract wins, platform distribution, renewal rates and AI-related data licensing. Over 6–18 months, the key test is whether new AI buyers produce recurring revenue without pricing erosion. Contrarian point: the forecast may overstate monetizable demand by treating modeled adoption as realized spend; data quality, sample representativeness and legal rights—not dataset availability alone—constrain repeat purchases. Falsify the bull case if named vendors report weak renewal/usage, falling data-product pricing, or curtailed datasets after regulatory or rights challenges.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not trade the market-size forecast as an earnings catalyst. Treat it as a sector watch item until vendors report attributable alternative-data revenue, contract growth or renewal evidence.
• Put SMWB on a conditional long watchlist, not an unconditional buy: require evidence that distribution converts into incremental recurring revenue and customer retention. Reassess if licensing costs rise or data-product pricing weakens.
• Monitor platform bundling by FDS, SPGI and LSEG as a competitive risk to standalone suppliers; look for disclosed dataset integrations, attach rates and product revenue rather than assuming market growth accrues evenly.
• Track privacy and data-rights actions as a potential negative catalyst for location and scraped-data supply. A new restriction affecting commercially licensed feeds, or vendor guidance citing reduced availability, would invalidate the broad demand thesis.