NuScale Is Already Down 70%. Here's the Price I'd Actually Start Buying.

NuScale Power shares have fallen roughly 70% over the past year to about $9.70, but the author views the stock as more attractive only near $7, implying a further 28% downside. The company held approximately $1.9 billion in cash, equivalents and investments at June-end after raising $985 million through the sale of 89.7 million shares in the first half of 2026, creating substantial dilution. While a potential TVA deployment could involve up to 6GW or 72 modules, there is no binding power purchase agreement and NuScale generated only about $75,000 of Q2 revenue, leaving its roughly $4 billion valuation highly speculative.

Analysis

SMR is best viewed as a long-dated development option rather than an operating utility or equipment manufacturer. On the stated figures, the equity implies roughly $2.1B of enterprise value after cash, but the relevant denominator is not current revenue: it is the probability-weighted value of a financeable first project, followed by repeatable module orders. A TVA-related announcement without a contracted power price, creditworthy offtake, project financing, and construction notice would improve sentiment but likely would not eliminate the core funding and execution discount.

The second-order beneficiary of any genuine SMR buildout is likely established nuclear manufacturing and fuel-cycle capacity, where revenues arrive earlier and carry less project-development risk. BWXT is the cleaner listed proxy for nuclear-component fabrication, while FLR could benefit if its strategic relationship converts into engineering/procurement activity; both avoid much of SMR's equity-dilution asymmetry. The contrarian point is that a price decline alone does not create a margin of safety: cash per share is meaningful, but future engineering, licensing, and customer-development burn can transfer much of that value back to the market through additional issuance. Over the next 1-3 months, headline-driven nuclear momentum can squeeze shorts; over 6-18 months, the stock needs a binding, financeable contract and a credible per-MW cost/schedule framework to support a durable rerating.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not initiate a core SMR long at current levels solely on cash backing; place an alert for a binding TVA/ENTRA1 agreement that discloses power price, financing source, module quantity, construction timing, and cancellation protections. A headline memorandum or non-binding framework is not sufficient confirmation.
• If SMR trades toward $6-7 without a deterioration in cash runway or loss of licensing progress, consider a small 6-12 month tactical long sized as venture-style risk capital; reassess if cash falls materially below $1.5B or management signals another large ATM program.
• For nuclear-theme exposure, prefer a modest long BWXT versus short SMR pair after a contract-driven SMR rally: BWXT monetizes manufacturing demand earlier, while SMR retains first-project financing and dilution risk. Cover the short if SMR discloses a fully financed construction start rather than merely an offtake announcement.
• Avoid naked SMR short exposure ahead of nuclear-policy announcements or definitive TVA news; sentiment-driven upside can be disproportionate to fundamentals. If expressing downside, use defined-risk put spreads dated beyond the next expected commercial-update window.