SpaceX Stock Could Soar to $5 Trillion on IPO Day, According to a Wall Street Expert

SpaceX’s IPO is slated for Friday, June 12, at $135 per share, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation and a $75 billion capital raise. Jim Cramer argues the stock could surge as much as 180% on debut to a $5 trillion valuation because of extreme demand and a 4.2% float, while Morningstar values the company at $780 billion, 56% below the IPO mark. The article also warns that investors may sell Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia to fund allocations, potentially pressuring the broader market.

Analysis

The immediate trade is not the issuer itself but the forced-reallocation cascade. A mega-IPO with a tiny tradable float can create a temporary liquidity shock where the financing of one crowded asset requires selling the most crowded public winners, which is why the short list of likely funders matters more than the new listing on day one. That makes the first-order beneficiaries less obvious: cash-rich brokers, exchange operators, and any name with index-inclusion/arb demand could see elevated turnover, while the highest-ownership large caps face mechanical pressure independent of fundamentals.

The bigger risk is a two-phase unwind. In the first phase, scarcity plus FOMO can push the new stock far above any rational comp set for days or weeks; in the second phase, lockup expiry and incremental secondary supply can overwhelm demand and turn the stock into a source of volatility for months. The setup is especially dangerous because stretched valuation leaves no margin for execution miss, and any disappointment on growth, monetization, or capital intensity will hit a stock priced for perfection.

The market impact on AMZN/MSFT/NVDA is likely brief unless the IPO is large enough to force de-grossing across multi-manager and passive-adjacent portfolios. If the offering does draw real cash from institutional books, the more interesting secondary beneficiaries are lower-correlation cash proxies and high-quality compounders that were not already overowned, while the obvious mega-cap shorts can become crowded squeezes if the market quickly tags the event as ‘buy the dip’ rather than true supply-driven selling. The consensus is underestimating how fast a supply shock can reverse once the IPO roadshow ends and the purchase anxiety is satisfied.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short-term: buy downside protection on NVDA via 2-6 week put spreads into the listing window; the thesis is flow-driven de-risking, with defined premium at risk and fastest payoff if the market needs to fund allocations.
• Pair trade for the first 1-2 weeks post-IPO: long NDAQ/BAC on elevated issuance/trading activity and underwriting-fee spillover, short a basket of AMZN/MSFT/NVDA against the flow shock; cut the short if the new issue trades poorly and the de-grossing narrative fades.
• Consider a tactical long in quality non-mega-cap software/consumer names that are underowned relative to the crowded AI basket; the trade is a relative-rotation bet rather than a market-directional bet.
• Do not chase the new listing on day one; wait for the first lockup-related supply overhang and use the post-hype fade as the higher-probability entry point if the stock detaches from fundamentals.
• If managing a concentrated long book, pre-emptively trim the most consensus-owned winners before the IPO date; the risk/reward is favorable because the cost of trimming is lower than the potential forced-selling gap if the market becomes liquidity-constrained.