If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, This Is the Vanguard ETF Warren Buffett Would Load Up On

The article recommends dollar-cost averaging into Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) despite uncertainty about a potential market correction or crash in 2027, citing its 0.03% annual expense ratio and diversified holdings. It notes Warren Buffett’s 2013 recommendation that trustees allocate 90% to a low-cost S&P 500 fund and 10% to short-term government bonds. Berkshire Hathaway held 43,000 VOO shares before liquidating the position in Q4 2024.

Analysis

The useful distinction is strategic ownership versus near-term expected return. A cap-weighted S&P 500 fund can adapt as constituents change, but that does not neutralize starting-valuation risk or concentration: if a small group of AI-linked mega-caps disappoints, weaker breadth can weigh on the index even while other constituents remain healthy. That creates a plausible second-order rotation into equal-weight exposure, not proof that the broad index is a short.

The article supplies no valuation, earnings-revision, or breadth evidence to support a 2027 crash call. Nor does Berkshire Hathaway’s reported VOO sale establish Buffett’s current view: a 13F does not explain the rationale, and the cited 2013 allocation is not a contemporaneous market signal. Treat the “Buffett-approved” framing as marketing, not a catalyst.

Near term, there is no event-driven edge here. Over 1–3 months, watch earnings revisions and market breadth: deterioration concentrated in large technology would make cap-weighted VOO more vulnerable relative to equal-weight exposure. Over 6–18 months, persistent broadening would weaken the concentration-risk thesis. A correction would also expose the article’s key implementation caveat: dollar-cost averaging reduces timing dependence but does not prevent losses or solve liquidity needs. Reassess if broad earnings revisions turn materially negative or equal-weight underperformance accelerates; absent those signals, avoid crash-timing trades.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No tactical position from this article alone; it offers no fresh catalyst or measurable valuation signal.
• For strategic S&P 500 exposure, phase purchases into VOO on a fixed schedule rather than making a binary all-in call. Keep required near-term liquidity outside equities; staged buying does not cap drawdown risk.
• Watch VOO versus an equal-weight S&P 500 proxy such as RSP, alongside earnings-revision breadth. A sustained widening in equal-weight relative strength would support reducing cap-weight concentration, not automatically shorting the index.
• Do not infer a bearish signal for NVDA or BRK.A from the article: the cited Berkshire filing gives no rationale for the VOO disposition, and the article supplies no company-specific evidence.